The University of Aalborg Study on Daytime Flashing Lights for Bicycles.
On Wed, 22 Mar 2017 14:34:03 +0700, John B.
wrote: I think he had a six cell mag-light clamped on his bike, but as I didn't stop to talk with him I can't be sure. But it sure was bright. But I don't see six cell mag-lights being suggested for bicycles :-) No problem: http://www.learnbydestroying.com/jeffl/pics/bicycles/slides/bicycle-flashlight.html -- Jeff Liebermann 150 Felker St #D http://www.LearnByDestroying.com Santa Cruz CA 95060 http://802.11junk.com Skype: JeffLiebermann AE6KS 831-336-2558 |
The University of Aalborg Study on Daytime Flashing Lights for Bicycles.
On Tuesday, March 21, 2017 at 8:25:43 AM UTC-7, sms wrote:
On 3/21/2017 7:24 AM, wrote: On Monday, March 20, 2017 at 2:29:18 PM UTC-7, sms wrote: On 3/20/2017 1:40 PM, wrote: No worries, I do not think you are a paid shill - just deluded............... Gee, thanks. Jeff showed himself to be extremely knowledgeable of statistics and noted the chief problem with the study. They did NOT show actual numbers because Reelights could not afford to shell out hundreds of thousands of free lights. So this study was probably confined to perhaps a thousand and the change in accidents was in fact statistically irrelevant. So taken in pure percentages and presented as if it had meaning it makes for a good sales pitch and gives some undergraduate a paper to write. Anytime someone doesn't like the results of a study they try to pick it apart. If they did not want it picked apart they only had to provide the actual numbers. And they didn't. Why do you suppose that was? The numbers are almost certainly there--if you pay for the full study. A lot of studies are like that. They publish a summary for free, but you have to pay for the full study. I guess that the thought is that it would be organizations with a budget for which a few hundred dollars (or in this case about $40) would not be a big deal. But in countries where flashing lights are already legal and widely used, and the benefits well-established, why would anyone pay anything just to get the raw data? Yesterday it was cloudy here. I was driving in the morning. Gray cars in gray conditions don't stand out. But you see cyclists with DRLs coming a mile away (literally), long before you see any bright clothing. I doubt if anyone here really believes that on bicycles DRLs (flashing or steady) are not effective. Just look at motorcycles which have been required to have a DRL for decades (at least in most states). But an Australian study stated that using a low beam headlight as a DRL was not optimal, "Headlights waste energy when used as DRLs because, on low beam, they are designed to direct most light below the horizontal and away from the eyes of other road users." In the U.S. the effectiveness of motorcycle DRLs is estimated at only a 13% reduction in crashes. However this was before modulated DRLs started to be used. https://www-nrd.nhtsa.dot.gov/pdf/esv/esv19/05-0178-w.pdf The only hard numbers I can find for bicyclist deaths is 117 in Norway in 2015. So in Sweden with Zero Vision is couldn't be more than half of that. One other number that I discovered was Norway had 2.2 fatalities per 100,000 inhabitants. This would have a test group of .044 deaths. For a ten year test that would STILL give you a death rate of only a half person for the test group. So can you explain to me how you could get ANY serious statistics from that? |
The University of Aalborg Study on Daytime Flashing Lights forBicycles.
On 3/22/2017 7:25 AM, jbeattie wrote:
snip However, it is amazing to me that a little flea-watt light makes such a dramatic difference. True. Just think how much of a difference a more powerful light would make. |
The University of Aalborg Study on Daytime Flashing Lights forBicycles.
On 3/22/2017 9:38 AM, Jeff Liebermann wrote:
On Wed, 22 Mar 2017 14:34:03 +0700, John B. wrote: I think he had a six cell mag-light clamped on his bike, but as I didn't stop to talk with him I can't be sure. But it sure was bright. But I don't see six cell mag-lights being suggested for bicycles :-) No problem: http://www.learnbydestroying.com/jeffl/pics/bicycles/slides/bicycle-flashlight.html You've been posting the link to that photo for years. At least order one of these: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B000AO3H24 or build one of these http://nordicgroup.us/s78/images/IMG_0303.JPG. Bungie cords are unacceptable. |
The University of Aalborg Study on Daytime Flashing Lights for Bicycles.
On Wed, 22 Mar 2017 08:51:58 -0700, Jeff Liebermann
wrote: On Wed, 22 Mar 2017 14:56:40 +0700, John B. wrote: There is some information available, although not much. Reelight apparently donated some 2,000 fore and aft flashing permanently mounted and, essentially, always on lights for the study. The study was in Denmark where I would guess that all, or nearly all, bicycles are equipped with conventional lights as I have read that if one is caught riding after dark the fine is a rather substantial amount - perhaps a week's pay if my figures were correct, and in fact in one of the reports it was stated that the test was between bicycles with a permanently mounted and always on flashing light and bicycles equipped with "conventional bicycle lights" So, the participants were expected to REMOVE their conventional lighting system and replace it with a Reelight model? Or did they leave both of them connected? Nope. the Reelight SL-100's mount on the axle or skewer end and are powered by two magnets attached to the spokes. If there were conventional lights installed there is no need to remove them. The SL 100 is stated to: emit 29,000 mcd (microcandela's ( a unit for measuring light) from the front light and 10,000 from the rear light. Note: the SL100's can be bought as a set with a white front light and a red rear See: https://www.reelight.com/en/products...t-front-light/ https://www.reelight.com/en/faq/ The results of the study was stated to be that the law covering bicycle lighting was changed to allow flashing lights to be used. That's probably true, as it provides a sales incentive. It also explains why they ran the test in Denmark, where bicycles are very common. I doubt that the Danish rule makers would accept a similar study performed in another country as the basis for changing their rules. As an aside I might also mention that a good friend (now deceased) owned a company that did financial analysis and the majority of the studies he did were for companies that were investigating the possibility of entering a specific market. Surveys were a major factor in many, maybe most, of his market studies and I remember him once stating he "could design a survey to prove anything that the client required". Agreed. I used to work in the advertising and market research sector. I've also been involved in writing "customer satisfaction" surveys. Most such surveys have nothing to do with the alleged topic. It's not unusual to ask questions about unrelated products, buying habits, driving habits, spending habits, mileage traveled, discretionary cash available, etc. For example, the survey could be structured asking indirectly if you bicycle commute, would you consider buying an ADDITIONAL tail light for your machine(s). Here's one way how it's done: [Q] If this daytime flashing light saved your life, would you consider purchasing one for all your bicycles? Notice that the question assumes that the flashing light works and will save lives. That would be followed by a few similar questions, all assuming that the device works and saves lives. The last question would be: [Q] Do you believe the world would be a better place if everyone used daytime flashing lights on their bicycles? Most participants will automatically say yes because that's the expected and "correct" answer. Then, the marketing people can say "Almost everyone who took the survey would probably purchase a daytime flashing bicycle light and will recommend it to all their friends". Never mind that there's a big difference between "used" and "buy" and that the entire survey assumes that the device works as expected. Hint: Such survey questions are invariably answered by participants in top down order. The first few questions involve the greatest amount of considered thought by the participant. By the time they get down to the last few questions, they are tired, bored, in a hurry, and not really thinking clearly. Their resistance to suggestion is then at its lowest. So, the really important questions are asked last. Years ago I found a book in a used book shop that purported to be a study on Thai social customs. It was quite obviously someone's dissertation, although hopefully not for a PhD degree. The author had never visited Thailand prior to the survey. He could not speak the language and depended on a translator. He knew nothing about the Buddhist religion as practiced in Thailand and the village he surveyed had been used in a number of previous surveys. He asked questions such as "If someone steals your water buffalo what would you do?" The answer he used in his analysis was, "Nothing. The thief probably needs it more that I do." Another question was, "If you discovered that your wife was sleeping with another man what would you do?" The answer, "I would forgive her." Now based on Buddhist morality these are nearly perfect answers but based on the years I have lived in the country the real answers would have been: "I would get my shotgun and shoot that thieving SOB" and "I'd beat her until she couldn't walk and take her back to her mother and get the Sin Sod (bride price) back." As the dissertation was published it is probable that it was acceptable to the school but I've always wondered what sort of a grade it resulted in? (As an aside, I also wonder how much of U.S. foreign policy is based on similar information :-) -- Cheers, John B. |
The University of Aalborg Study on Daytime Flashing Lights forBicycles.
On 3/22/2017 8:38 PM, John B. wrote:
On Wed, 22 Mar 2017 08:51:58 -0700, Jeff Liebermann wrote: On Wed, 22 Mar 2017 14:56:40 +0700, John B. wrote: There is some information available, although not much. Reelight apparently donated some 2,000 fore and aft flashing permanently mounted and, essentially, always on lights for the study. The study was in Denmark where I would guess that all, or nearly all, bicycles are equipped with conventional lights as I have read that if one is caught riding after dark the fine is a rather substantial amount - perhaps a week's pay if my figures were correct, and in fact in one of the reports it was stated that the test was between bicycles with a permanently mounted and always on flashing light and bicycles equipped with "conventional bicycle lights" So, the participants were expected to REMOVE their conventional lighting system and replace it with a Reelight model? Or did they leave both of them connected? Nope. the Reelight SL-100's mount on the axle or skewer end and are powered by two magnets attached to the spokes. If there were conventional lights installed there is no need to remove them. The SL 100 is stated to: emit 29,000 mcd (microcandela's ( a unit for measuring light) from the front light and 10,000 from the rear light. Note: the SL100's can be bought as a set with a white front light and a red rear See: https://www.reelight.com/en/products...t-front-light/ https://www.reelight.com/en/faq/ The results of the study was stated to be that the law covering bicycle lighting was changed to allow flashing lights to be used. That's probably true, as it provides a sales incentive. It also explains why they ran the test in Denmark, where bicycles are very common. I doubt that the Danish rule makers would accept a similar study performed in another country as the basis for changing their rules. As an aside I might also mention that a good friend (now deceased) owned a company that did financial analysis and the majority of the studies he did were for companies that were investigating the possibility of entering a specific market. Surveys were a major factor in many, maybe most, of his market studies and I remember him once stating he "could design a survey to prove anything that the client required". Agreed. I used to work in the advertising and market research sector. I've also been involved in writing "customer satisfaction" surveys. Most such surveys have nothing to do with the alleged topic. It's not unusual to ask questions about unrelated products, buying habits, driving habits, spending habits, mileage traveled, discretionary cash available, etc. For example, the survey could be structured asking indirectly if you bicycle commute, would you consider buying an ADDITIONAL tail light for your machine(s). Here's one way how it's done: [Q] If this daytime flashing light saved your life, would you consider purchasing one for all your bicycles? Notice that the question assumes that the flashing light works and will save lives. That would be followed by a few similar questions, all assuming that the device works and saves lives. The last question would be: [Q] Do you believe the world would be a better place if everyone used daytime flashing lights on their bicycles? Most participants will automatically say yes because that's the expected and "correct" answer. Then, the marketing people can say "Almost everyone who took the survey would probably purchase a daytime flashing bicycle light and will recommend it to all their friends". Never mind that there's a big difference between "used" and "buy" and that the entire survey assumes that the device works as expected. Hint: Such survey questions are invariably answered by participants in top down order. The first few questions involve the greatest amount of considered thought by the participant. By the time they get down to the last few questions, they are tired, bored, in a hurry, and not really thinking clearly. Their resistance to suggestion is then at its lowest. So, the really important questions are asked last. Years ago I found a book in a used book shop that purported to be a study on Thai social customs. It was quite obviously someone's dissertation, although hopefully not for a PhD degree. The author had never visited Thailand prior to the survey. He could not speak the language and depended on a translator. He knew nothing about the Buddhist religion as practiced in Thailand and the village he surveyed had been used in a number of previous surveys. He asked questions such as "If someone steals your water buffalo what would you do?" The answer he used in his analysis was, "Nothing. The thief probably needs it more that I do." Another question was, "If you discovered that your wife was sleeping with another man what would you do?" The answer, "I would forgive her." Now based on Buddhist morality these are nearly perfect answers but based on the years I have lived in the country the real answers would have been: "I would get my shotgun and shoot that thieving SOB" and "I'd beat her until she couldn't walk and take her back to her mother and get the Sin Sod (bride price) back." As the dissertation was published it is probable that it was acceptable to the school but I've always wondered what sort of a grade it resulted in? (As an aside, I also wonder how much of U.S. foreign policy is based on similar information :-) -- Cheers, John B. Easy question. All of it, of course. -- Andrew Muzi www.yellowjersey.org/ Open every day since 1 April, 1971 |
The University of Aalborg Study on Daytime Flashing Lights for Bicycles.
On Wed, 22 Mar 2017 09:38:05 -0700, Jeff Liebermann
wrote: On Wed, 22 Mar 2017 14:34:03 +0700, John B. wrote: I think he had a six cell mag-light clamped on his bike, but as I didn't stop to talk with him I can't be sure. But it sure was bright. But I don't see six cell mag-lights being suggested for bicycles :-) No problem: http://www.learnbydestroying.com/jeffl/pics/bicycles/slides/bicycle-flashlight.html But that is a tiny little 4 cell light. Get the Real Man's 6 cell and see how that works :-) -- Cheers, John B. |
The University of Aalborg Study on Daytime Flashing Lights for Bicycles.
On Wed, 22 Mar 2017 13:55:00 -0700, sms
wrote: On 3/22/2017 9:38 AM, Jeff Liebermann wrote: On Wed, 22 Mar 2017 14:34:03 +0700, John B. wrote: I think he had a six cell mag-light clamped on his bike, but as I didn't stop to talk with him I can't be sure. But it sure was bright. But I don't see six cell mag-lights being suggested for bicycles :-) No problem: http://www.learnbydestroying.com/jeffl/pics/bicycles/slides/bicycle-flashlight.html You've been posting the link to that photo for years. The EXIF info for the picture (click the little camera icon to the upper right of the photo) says Jan 2011. So, that would be about 6 years. To avoid complaints about posting repetitious links, I change the URL from the original: http://802.11junk.com/jeffl/pics/bicycles/slides/bicycle-flashlight.html When I wear out the new URL, I'll probably switch to: http://802.11junk.com/jeffl/pics/bicycles/bicycle-flashlight.jpg or: http://www.LearnByDestroying.com/jeffl/pics/bicycles/bicycle-flashlight.jpg When your patience with those links expire, I have a variety of other domains available. At least order one of these: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B000AO3H24 or build one of these http://nordicgroup.us/s78/images/IMG_0303.JPG. The Wald flashlight holder implies that the arrangement might be permanent, which would not be the case. It's not very useful since there is no way to adjust the flashlight position. Your flashlight holder contrivance is clever and probably woth considering because none of the infamous Santa Cruz bicycle component thieves would consider removing it for resale. Were I to design and build such a contrivance, it would be based on a DIN rail mounted across the handlebars, with a variety of optional attachments (flashlight, switching, charge controller, horn, bell, evidence camera, smartphone, GPS, radar, ultrasonic vehicle passing distance measure, paintball canon, etc). https://www.google.com/search?tbm=isch&q=din+rail+mounting+clip I already have most of the DIN rail parts and have just received some of the cheap eBay flashlights. The plan is to attach 5 or 7 flashlights across the DIN rail, each aimed individually and powered by 14500 or 18650 batteries. While there are theoretical arguments that suggest that this approach might be a dumb idea, I want to see for myself. If it works, I'll upgrade to a MegaLumen photon torpedo system for the Kickstarter version. Bungie cords are unacceptable. Bungie cords were all I had available at the time. My regular headlight was lost or stolen, and all I could find was my big heavy Maglite. I use Bungie cords to secure my junk to the rear rack, so a repurposed them as a flashlight mount. What it lacked in stability, aiming accuracy, aesthetics, and sex appeal, the Bungie bicycle headlight mount (patent pending) was quite adequate to safely transport me across town after dark. -- Jeff Liebermann 150 Felker St #D http://www.LearnByDestroying.com Santa Cruz CA 95060 http://802.11junk.com Skype: JeffLiebermann AE6KS 831-336-2558 |
The University of Aalborg Study on Daytime Flashing Lights for Bicycles.
On Thu, 23 Mar 2017 08:49:51 +0700, John B.
wrote: On Wed, 22 Mar 2017 09:38:05 -0700, Jeff Liebermann wrote: On Wed, 22 Mar 2017 14:34:03 +0700, John B. wrote: I think he had a six cell mag-light clamped on his bike, but as I didn't stop to talk with him I can't be sure. But it sure was bright. But I don't see six cell mag-lights being suggested for bicycles :-) No problem: http://www.learnbydestroying.com/jeffl/pics/bicycles/slides/bicycle-flashlight.html But that is a tiny little 4 cell light. Get the Real Man's 6 cell and see how that works :-) The 4D Maglite was all that I had available at the time. I would probably have used a 6D Maglite, but all of mine need some work. http://www.learnbydestroying.com/jeffl/crud/maglites.jpg I'll probably end up donating these to a local thrift shop. There were several large Maglites at their store available for sale for $6 and $8 that sat around without buyers for about 2 months. I got the clue. Nobody wants them, even with the LED bulb conversion. -- Jeff Liebermann 150 Felker St #D http://www.LearnByDestroying.com Santa Cruz CA 95060 http://802.11junk.com Skype: JeffLiebermann AE6KS 831-336-2558 |
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