Cycling & bikes - Grand Tour Competition

I think we argued about this before - performance enhancing drugs only did one thing - they increased the possible hematocrit. But since that was limited to 50% if you were totally clean you could fail the blood tests because healthy bodies can produce between 48% and 54% NORMALLY. Remember that if you exceeded the blood count you weren't marked as a cheater but as simply failing a fallible test.

But the increased blood count had little to no effect. On a fresh rider who had been training hard he could have a low blood count at the start of the race when he was otherwise fully recovered. At this point blood transfusions or EPO would have a VERY minor effect.

This is because there is no ONE system in the body that can increase performance though there is one that can cause it to fail - any one of the nutrition, oxygen or release systems. Especially in a grand tour rider whose entire body has to be in perfect working order and who has to have all of the proper genes in order to be able to compete at the highest level let alone be a winner.

Transfusions or EPO only effected the red blood cell count.

Why did those using drugs win and those not not? Because of the psychological power of suggestion. Those using drugs convinced themselves that they were better than those not using them and those not using them convinced themselves that they were at an insurmountable disadvantage. This caused druggies to try harder and those that did not to give up more easily.

You will note that the average speeds of the Gran Tours have not changed over the last 20 years. From the time of 8 speed brake/shifters there has been a technological stalemate.

Now the average speed of the Tours is dependent upon the courses chosen that year. Faster for those tours designed for sprinters and slower for those designed for climbers.

All of this means that year by year more and more top grade riders will learn the best training techniques and so more and more teams will be in these tours with an honest chance to win.

And more and more we will see tours as the Tour de France this year where it is pure luck that provides a small time advantage and a strong team that defends that advantage or allows it to go to yet another strong team that also had the smallest bit of luck.

We will see no more Eddy Merckx's or (whether you like him or not) Lance Armstrong who was almost the match of the Great Eddy. Remember that Lance was lucky enough to compete in times when he had but one or maybe two real challengers. And since as I pointed out he gained no advantage from using drugs hr really was the champion that was taken all away from him not because of his ability but because he embarrassed the sport.

But now we will see people like Hinault, LeMond, Pantani and Armstrong all competing on a even footing and even more every year. So now you'll have to watch the Gran Tours with your calculator open and counting seconds.

So no - these tours will not be boring - they will be tours of more and more skill and learning how to take the smallest advantage that luck provides.

See you at the next Tour.