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Old October 18th 17, 08:49 PM posted to rec.bicycles.tech
JBeattie
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Default California's Fires

On Wednesday, October 18, 2017 at 10:55:31 AM UTC-7, AMuzi wrote:
On 10/18/2017 12:25 PM, wrote:
On Wednesday, October 18, 2017 at 8:41:26 AM UTC-7, jbeattie wrote:
On Wednesday, October 18, 2017 at 7:30:03 AM UTC-7, wrote:
On Tuesday, October 17, 2017 at 10:25:28 AM UTC-7, jbeattie wrote:
On Tuesday, October 17, 2017 at 7:52:39 AM UTC-7, wrote:
Unfortunately in the Santa Rosa fire Levi Leipheimer's house was burned to the ground. I can only hope that he is solvent enough to repair since I suspect that the insurance companies are going to play the "mass destruction" card and not pay on their policies.

Why would you say that? Assuming any insurer went insolvent, there is the California Insurance Guaranty Association.
http://www.caiga.org/ But I doubt that any admitted California insurer is going to go insolvent because of the fires. Most insurers retain only part of the risk anyway, placing the rest with reinsurers. Adjusting claims will be slowed by the number, but anyone insured by a legitimate, admitted insurer probably has nothing to fear.

My sister lives in Santa Rosa and my brother owns property there. I was getting real-time reporting over the weekend. It seems to be improving, although living in the smoke is hard on the lungs.

-- Jay Beattie.

Jay, a long time ago I remember reading my insurance policy and there was a clause in it that said if a high percentage (don't remember what) where destroyed in an area that the insurance policies were null and void.

Fire insurance is the most basic coverage there is, and in most states, the policy form is dictated by statute. I've never seen any policy purporting to cancel retroactively if there were too many losses in a geographic area. There are some assessable policies issued by mutual insurers that allow the insurer to demand additional premiums if reserves are wiped out by large losses. Otherwise, large losses wipe out reserve, trigger reinsurance and/or catastrophe bonds and a lot of other risk-spreading devices.

IMO, the worry is not really the fire loss in wine country but that loss combined with all the storm damage for large P&C carriers like Ace or AIG, although most of those guys left the Florida market or issued policies with the usual exclusions for flood, wind-driven rain, etc. Anyway, its the national loss picture that really matters this year on top of the fire losses. Global warming is going to drive up premium big time.


Then I must be remembering incorrectly.

There is no such thing as man-made global warming. As proof - all of the energy in the absorption bands of CO2 are absorbed according to one paper I read to 10 meters from the ground. I guess from knowledge of gas chromatography is more like one meter.

The significance of this is that from the point of absorption the entire transfer of energy in the troposphere is via conduction and convection. And this means that the gas is irrelevant since they all have specific heat indexes nearly equal.

CO2 in any case is a trace gas whereas H2O in the atmosphere is an average of 4%. H2O absorbs in most of the Earth's emission range. CO2 has one band in which it can absorb without interference from H2O and in that band there is virtually no energy - which is what the 10 meter maximum absorption distance verifies.

We have proof of NASA and NOAA releasing absolutely false data. Over a 20 year period they changed the temperature records three times. Dr. Michael Mann even went so far as to eliminate the Medieval Warm Period and the little ice age from his records to prove global warming.

So we're not seeing any AGW but the normal millenial warm period. And these are usually followed by cold periods. The weather related events aren't unusual but the media can blame it all on climate change which isn't occurring save for the normal variations.


Environmentalist George Monbiot wrote in the UK Guardian in
2002
http://www.theguardian.com/uk/2002/d...ristmas.famine

that within “as little as 10 years, the world will be faced
with a choice: arable farming either continues to feed the
world’s animals or it continues to feed the world’s people.
It cannot do both.”

In 2002, about 930 million people around the world were
undernourished, according to U.N. data. by 2014, that number
shrank to 805 million. Sorry, Monbiot.

The San Jose Mercury News reported on June 30, 1989
http://nl.newsbank.com/nl-search/we/...ckval=GooglePM

that a “senior environmental official at the United Nations,
Noel Brown, says entire nations could be wiped off the face
of the earth by rising sea levels if global warming is not
reversed by the year 2000.”


And yet we have the worst fires on record in California, the worst hurricanes on record in the Gulf (in terms of frequency and severity), broken heat records in the PNW and elsewhere, new pest vectors, loss of fish runs, loss of animal habitat and a multitude of other problems caused by climate change. No legitimate climate scientist denies that the earth is warming. The fact that dire past predictions have been slow to materialize doesn't mean it isn't so.

I'm not going to get into the debate over whether global warming is man-made or to what extent it's man-made. I'll leave that to the PhDs because I don't think that surfing the internet makes me qualified to judge the science.

-- Jay Beattie.

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