On Wed, 24 Oct 2018 07:21:22 -0700 (PDT), Andre Jute
wrote:

Quoting:
"Garbage in, climate out.
Jeff Liebermann"

Definitely a "wish I said that!" moment.

It's one of my tag lines. I contrived it when I heard about the
latest abomination in data reduction. Since none of the climate
models of the day came even close to predicting past climate events,
it was decided that a better result could be produced by simply
combining all these models into one "standard" model. Since all the
models were known to have errors, but not necessarily in the same
direction, the combination of all these will cancel the errors out,
leaving accurate data. My reaction was the "garbage in, climate out"
statement in honor of the original "garbage in, garbage out" data
processing tag line. I'm told that improved satellite data and proxy
data accuracy has reduced the need for such averaging, but I doubt it.
https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/the-curious-wavefunction/are-more-accurate-climate-change-models-worse/
"...as the models are becoming increasingly realistic, they
are also becoming less accurate and predictive because of
growing uncertainties."

I don't get involved much in climate research, which mostly deals with
satellite and proxy data. What little I've done with climate was
trashed by researchers refusing to provide raw data or indicate what
manner of corrections, normalizing, filtering, etc was done. I gave
up.

For your amusement, see my graph of rainfall records in the San
Lorenzo Valley since 1888:
http://www.learnbydestroying.com/jeffl/slv-wx/SLV-rainfall-06.jpg
It's rather difficult to predict if we were on an increasing or
decreasing trend in rainfall. With a odd order polynomial curve
extrapolation, I can produce a rainfall increase (black line). With
an even order extrapolation, a decrease (green line).

A more current and realistic graph is at:
http://www.learnbydestroying.com/jeffl/slv-wx/SLV-rainfall.jpg
http://www.learnbydestroying.com/jeffl/slv-wx/SLV-rainfall.xls
Play with the data averaging curves and notice how easily they can be
tweaked. I also tried it with some random numbers, and got the same
effect.

Andre Jute
60 years in the trenches against the weather catastrophists and other nut cases

I keep waiting for my subsidy from the oil companies. Aren't all AGW
denialists supported by the oil companies?

--
Jeff Liebermann
150 Felker St #D http://www.LearnByDestroying.com
Santa Cruz CA 95060 http://802.11junk.com
Skype: JeffLiebermann AE6KS 831-336-2558