On Saturday, July 2, 2016 at 6:15:29 PM UTC+1, Jeff Liebermann wrote:

I wonder if there's an app for estimating the risk of riding at any
particular time or day? Something like the weather report, except it
deals with the probabiliy of getting involved in an accident, which
should be predictable with about the same accuracy as the weather.

I hate to sound like Krygowski throwing one of his "Danger! Danger!" tantrums, but the total number of fatal accidents on any day in a nation of huge geographic spread is just too low to conclude that by staying home you stand a significantly better chance of staying alive.

Even at a lower level, merely wishing not be involved in any accident, not just a fatal accident, I'm not at all certain that statistically the conditions are conducive to a hard and fast conclusion. On the other hand, you have to draw a line somewhere, and to approach my town house from either side, one has to pass a bar, so on Saturdays nights I don't ride between about six and eight in the evening (when the binge drinkers are on their way home to dinner) and usually not until after midnight (when by law the pubs close). As I say, probably a precaution too far, but I throw it into the pot in the certain knowledge it will elevate Franki-boy's blood pressure simply for discovering that I'm human.

Andre Jute

PS I know you were joking, Jeff. but the statistically challenged clowns on RBT share another characteristic in common: they're totally humorless. You can test this: those who laugh at this joke of yours will also be the ones who've demonstrated in the past that they grasp statistics is more of an art than a mere mathematical technique, and in any event of a utility stricly limited by the humility of those who wield it. It would be well to put a warning over jokes for chi squares: Here Be Statistical Trolls!