On 1/3/2019 7:08 PM, Radey Shouman wrote:
Frank Krygowski writes:

On 1/3/2019 6:52 PM, Radey Shouman wrote:
" writes:

On Thursday, January 3, 2019 at 2:21:29 PM UTC-6, Frank Krygowski wrote:
On 1/3/2019 2:09 PM, wrote:
On Thursday, January 3, 2019 at 9:10:57 AM UTC-6, jbeattie wrote:

I couldn't imagine living in the Mid West or some place where
there was snow on the ground for long periods of time and below
zero F on a regular basis. I'd move to Phoenix.

-- Jay Beattie.

Due to Global Warming, the Midwest has not had a real winter in
more than a decade. In Des Moines today, right in the middle of
the Midwest, its 36 degrees and Zero snow. Going to be in the 40s
or 50s highs for the next week. In early January??? It does snow
two or three times each winter. An inch or two that sticks around
for less than a week. But the roads are cleared in a few hours
and easily rideable with studded tires. You only need studs for a
few days of the year. Rest of the time rubber works perfectly.
If it wasn't dark for 16 hours a day, you would never even know it
was winter in the Midwest.

It varies. It's been warm in Ohio this winter, but examining weather
records, of the top 10 snowiest Januaries, six of them occurred since
2000. Likewise, seven of the 10 snowiest Februaries.

Records at that location have been kept since at least 1931 (maybe
longer) so that's nine decades. Those results are statistically odd.


--
- Frank Krygowski

Snow does not mean cold. Its snowed where I live when its 33-34-35
degrees. But 33-34-35 degrees is WARM for January and February. So
its very easy to have global warming and lots of snow. I suspect all
the extra warmth in the air causes the water in oceans and lakes to
heat up and evaporate into the air. And then once the water is in the
air, it has to fall out of the air by either rain or snow. And it
seems we have two or three hurricanes every year too. More evidence
of global warming.

On the other hand, 2018 saw the fewest (total) deaths from tornadoes in
the US since 1875.

https://weather.com/storms/tornado/n...est-since-1875

Italy seems to have had an unusual number, however.

Must be global warming.

Inherently rare events like hurricanes and, I suppose, tornado deaths
will always show a lot of random fluctuations. (The same is true of
bicycling fatalities.) I don't think those fluctuations can
necessarily be used to prove any particular cause.

I was reacting to the hurricanes bit.

But long term changes in common and ordinary data are more likely to
mean something is happening.

It's hard to generalize to the globe from one's personal experience,
"global temperature" is really a surprisingly abstract thing.

Long before most of the discussion on climate change, I came across an
article discussing data a historian noted in diaries of British
farmers. Farmers were diligent about recording the dates of the last
frost, and those dates had been consistently creeping earlier for many
decades. To me, that indicates a real trend with a real cause.

Indeed, central England temperatures have been generally rising since at
the very latest 1900, as we continue to exit the "Little Ice Age".
Before that we had a Medieval Climate Optimum (warm period), a Roman
Climate Optimum, A Minoan Climate Optimum, all alternating with cooler
periods. The oldest optimum, oddly, seems to have been the warmest.

There are faster oscillations superimposed on that. The Atlantic and
Pacific Decadal Oscillations, which have a period of roughly 60 years
-- the 30s were quite warm, followed by cooling until the 80s or so,
followed by warming ...

Then there are slower oscillations, producing the interglacials that
periodically interrupt the Ice Age we've been having for almost 3
million years.

It's oscillations, usually irregular, all the way down into really
deep time. So yes, there are real trends, there have *always* been real
trends, and to a great extent we still do not understand the real causes
well enough to predict, let alone alter, their course.

I don't doubt that atmospheric CO2, some of which is anthropogenic,
plays some role in the climate. I do doubt that anyone alive can
predict the effect of everyone going out and buying a Tesla or riding a
bicycle instead of piloting a massive SUV might have on global
temperature to any useful standard at all. Much less whether it might
be good or bad for humanity.



So it's freeze or burn, just like life itself?
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nhsr/nhsr076.pdf


--
Andrew Muzi
www.yellowjersey.org/
Open every day since 1 April, 1971