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Old March 31st 18, 08:48 AM posted to rec.bicycles.tech
Andre Jute[_2_]
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Default High visibility law yields no improvement in safety

On Saturday, March 31, 2018 at 6:04:48 AM UTC+1, Jeff Liebermann wrote:
My guess(tm) is that the reason
there was no obvious change in the accident rate was because the
number of bicycle accidents was sufficiently small and subject to
radical variations in number, that any change precipitated by safety
clothing would disappear in the noise.


Possible. Also possible that, for entirely random reasons, the number of bicycle accidents could be within a very narrow range over a quite substantial period. An example is nearer home to you than Italy: A few years ago, when I explained to Franki-boy that cycling in the States is actually much safer than he claimed, because he'd done the statistics incompetently, I discovered that annual bicyclist fatalities numbered for years on end in a rather narrow range around, if memory serves, around 700. The trendline was essentially flat, bearing no relationship to the growth in bicycles. In effect, even with large numbers of novice cyclists coming into the numbers every year, one had to conclude that cycling was nonetheless getting to be safer; next you would have to conclude that dedicated cycle-facilities were actually working, that night was day, and other patent foolishness. The kicker is that the numbers that caused me to perform a double-flip were actually the best available government numbers.

I have no great expectation of this Italian study proving anything more than that academics want to publish papers.
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