On Saturday, May 23, 2020 at 3:14:58 PM UTC-7, pH wrote:
On Friday, May 22, 2020 at 3:01:55 PM UTC-7, cyom wrote:
On Friday, May 22, 2020 at 11:25:30 AM UTC-7, Jeff Liebermann wrote:
On Fri, 22 May 2020 10:28:02 -0500, AMuzi wrote:
In today's news:
https://cyclingindustry.news/third-o...ds-cycling-uk/
Which could happen, But it won't.
I'm a leading exponent of number juggling. Exponents and high order
polynomial trend lines are very useful for distorting information and
trends. Yep, exponents are fun.
I suspect we could do better determining if bicycles will triumph over
automobiles by tossing a coin. Some random considerations:
1. Car pools are probably going to be very unpopular due to the
difficulty maintaining 2 meter distancing. After Covid-19, it will
probably be one person per car, no passengers, no buses, no trains, no
van pools, etc. Taxis and Uber might survive if a partition were
installed between the driver and passenger, but sanitizing the
passenger area will be difficult.
2. Bicycles are currently functional because of the lack of
automobile traffic. If the traffic returns when the lock down ends,
bicycles will again be considered a risky proposition become less
attractive for commuting. This might be balanced by a dramatic
reduction in the number of workers that need to commute. Difficult to
tell a this point. If the US state of Georgia is any indication, most
of the jobs lost are not going to return immediately making commuting
more of a long term problem than an immediate crisis.
3. An increase in bicycle usage requires better end point facilities
and infrastructure, such as storage lockers, traffic management,
dedicated lanes, signage, etc. I don't see that happening as all the
aforementioned are controversial.
4. The world has gotten a taste of working at home. At least the
"knowledge workers" have had the experience. From what little I've
seen, working via Teamviewr, AnyDesk, GoToMyPC, etc remote desktop
applications and meeting via Zoom, Webex, Skype, BlueJeans, etc will
probably reduce the need to commute.
5. Lots of other factors might sway bicycle commuting in either
direction. From my warped perspective, the key is the unemployment
levels and the loaded overhead cost of having employees. Unemployment
rates have been seriously distorted by various government for
political reasons. Loaded overhead per employee is going to skyrocket
because of the added costs of providing a safe workplace and the
inevitable rise in medical and insurance expenses. The temptation
will be to outsource as much as possible and transfer the problem and
expense elsewhere.
Similarly, Wharton yesterday projected a quarter million US
Wuhan Virus deaths. Which also could happen, unlikely though
that may be.
"Coronavirus (COVID-19) Mortality Rate"
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/
See the bottom of the page for how the mortality rate is calculated.
Feel free to adjust the assumptions, guesses, and standards based upon
your level of optimism, political views, creative arithmetic, and
level of trust in the sources involved.
--
If you have the idea that people are going to stop shaking hands, hugging and kissing, you being far more effected by the propaganda that anyone would think
In the last few weeks I've run across two old co-workers at a local supermarket (Trader Joe's).
In both cases, each backed away with fear in his eyes as I approached to shake hands.
These were both Health Dept. employees who should know better.
One evenually and reluctantly offered to tap elbows, which I declined. The other would not approach.
There was an article in the San Jose Mercury On May 20 or 21, I think, section B pg 1 and continued on p. 3.
It was a Stanford study wherein they concluded that the mortatility rate of the current thingie going around is roughly eqivalent to the flu. 0.04-0.4% if I recall rightly. I was surprised that
this did not show up more in the news, but passed w/o any comment.
I was up at my Mom's in Napa last weekend. My cousin came in and--visibly nervous--would not hug anyone. We are all healthy. I could tell she was unhappy just being there w/ us.
My daughter, the paramedic says that while she thinks Caronavirus is a real thing it does not seem to be much of an issue.
In the meatime, I just discovered that my colon tests positive for E. coli!! Oh no! Should I be concerned?
What does "testing positive mean?
I have been dismayed at how easy it has been to instill fear in the general public and now understand how it was possible to ship Japanese American citizens to camps in WWII.
Bicycle contend:helmet. mavic receivershiop. double-butted spokes
pH in Aptos
The very real problem with studies from Stanford and such are that the CDC has the worst possible information and the state testing is absurd. Only 20% of the people being tested test positive because they are only allowing people to be tested if they have coughing and a fever. This is a particularly bad allergy season and people have been frightened out of their wits and have a reverse placebo effect in which they are convinced that they are ill..
This is an EXTREMELY biased sampling from which to select and so none of these studies are worth the paper they have been written on. Bad numbers in = bad numbers out.
Just to repeat myself - the CDC also has a department that supplies death statistics to the insurance industry. They have no political skin in the game and they are trying to supply accurate information to their target audience. Rather that 90,000+ deaths they are showing a linear progression to what will eventually be something like 20,000 across the US. That is about a third of the annual seasonal flu deaths.
You have to be careful of seasonal flu deaths because there is no requirement for them to report death victims as being seasonal flu positive and so there is something like a 300% wide estimate of the numbers of deaths from the seasonal flu.
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...nchs-data.html
The most important thing is that the death rates are 95% of normal. How would this be possible if more people than normal were dying from a deadly disease?
Also observe all of the Lame Stream Media accounts of "Young man almost dies of covid-19"! the pictures in that particular article showed a man obviously a weight lifter before having wasted away quite a bit after laying in a hospital bed for two weeks. If he were on a ventilator as was suggested, he would be being fed intravenously and of COURSE he would lose a lot of weight. Also they give NO health history of this guy. For all we know he could be gay and have AIDS. That would mean that his immune system is practically ineffective.
This guy was supposedly a nurse and was around infected people. But most healthy people do not catch covid-19 even when heavily exposed. That is a unique feature of this virus. It is only dangerous to extremely ill people not expected to live the year out anyway. Seasonal flu is especially deadly to children 5 and under, pregnant women and those who have been pregnant in the last 6 months.
I will say this - most WORKING epidemiologists have totally disagreed with Fauci on every point. Either clean up the CDC or turn statistics over to Universities that are less likely to politicize their statistics.