Don Klipstein wrote:
In article , jeff wrote:
Don Klipstein wrote:

With me severely snipping to edit for space

When you look beyond decades:

http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/Fi...ure_Record.png

You see the underlying long term trend which tracks with CO2 levels.

I see that tracking with overall greenhouse gas levels, only about 70%
of which is CO2, and the other 30% is from methane, organochlorines, and
nitrous oxide - recently stopped increasing.

I'm not seeing evidence of that (for methane).

http://climateprogress.org/2009/04/2...e-levels-2008/
among others

Long term chart:

http://ecen.com/eee55/eee55e/growth_...mosphere.ht m

I also see the periodic component, correlating well with AMO.

And, I see a periodic component, largely Atlantic Multidecadal
Oscillation.

That shows up even better in the most-major other of the surface-based
three of the "Big 5" indices of global temperature - namely, HadCRUt3,
which goes back to 1850.

I don't doubt the cyclic components. We'll see if temps are still
rising at the AMO low point, and then the next cycle up will be very
problematic.

In Fact, Wikipedia used HadCRUt3 until only a couple years ago, then
switched to GISS.

HadCRUT3 global temperature, UK "Met Office" version, is available at:

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcrut3.../global/nh+sh/

Nice.

I don't doubt that the overall warming may be less than predicted.
But it seems fairly clear that relatively low temperature changes have
profound effects on climate. If it wasn't for the extreme longevity of
CO2, I'd be more optimistic. After all we wouldn't be the first
civilization to have consumed it's way to collapse.

BTW, I've been seeing more and more LED light arrays for "designer"
lighting in the $25 or so range. To my eyes the better ones seem to have
acceptable color. Wonder how long to a price collapse? Just enquiring
because you are the resident lighting expert...

It's going to be gradual. It appears to me that LED technology has
historically advanced at roughly 40% of the pace that computer technology
did since the late 1970's.

That seems to imply a $10 price point in about 7 years and widespread
adoption, where CFLs are impractical in about a decade.

Jeff

- Don Klipstein )