In article ad34312f-6677-45a1-a016-e80a5c8b8d72
@u22g2000yqf.googlegroups.com, says...
Frank Krygowski has claimed, inappropriately in a thread about a
cylist killed on the road, that

"...some annual risks for Americans, according to _The Book of Risks_
by Laudan:

[snip]
You'll die from riding your bicycle: 1 in 130,000"

First of all, notice the *absence of the defining and delimiting "if"
for the cycling calculation*. This ****** Laudan has just taken the
entire US population of 307m without asking how many ride bicycles,
and based his number on that. Presumably that is why Krygowski, never
a champion of truth or fair reporting, is so keen to quote him. The
Laudan/Krygowski risk factor is thus probably only half of the real
risk factor for a regular cyclist (see below). The stupidity of the
Laudan/Krygowski formulation can be seen when we realize that their
forecast is therefore that 2462 cyclists will die on the roads this
year (307m/130,000), three and a half times as many fatalities as can
actually be expected. Frank Krygowski (and Laudan too, if Frank typed
that out correctly) should leave statistics to people who know what
they're doing.

Here's the correct way to calculate the risk of dying while
cycling.The risk if you don't cycle is zero. You have to cycle to die
while cycling. We know that about 57 million people ride a bike at
least once every year and that about 700 cyclists will be killed on
the roads. (-- Source: -- http://www.bikeleague.org/media/facts/#how_many
--)The chance of even the most casual cyclist being killed is thus 1
in about 81,500, and correspondingly higher risk (lower number) for
regular cyclists, a very, very long way from the Laudan/Krygowski
error of 1 in 130,000.

While Frank's statistics are misleading, your method of calculating the
risk of dying while cycling is equally flawed. Clearly, the risk of
dying while cycling depends on (among other factors) how much time you
spend in the saddle, the distance you travel, and the traffic conditions
typical of roads you travel on. The "most casual cyclist" presumably
cycles seldom, over short distances, and on quiet roads, so their chance
of being killed (on an annual basis) will be far lower than your figure.
A keen racer, commuter, or tourer typical of the audience here is far
more likely to cycle often, over large distances, and on busy roads, so
their chance of being killed is much higher than your figure.

In practice, all we can do is to cycle defensively (by whatever
definition) and hope that the pleasure, convenience, and social and
health benefits of cycling outweighs the risks.

Why are you lying to us again, Frank Krygowski?

Lying? No more misleading than your 'calculation' Andre.

Mike