On Sat, 31 Mar 2018 13:53:31 -0400, Frank Krygowski
wrote:

On 3/31/2018 12:00 PM, Jeff Liebermann wrote:

The fallacy also works for the absence of evidence. (Absence of
evidence is not evidence of absence). An unchanged accident rate
after the introduction of mandatory reflective clothing does not mean
that reflective clothing does NOT have an effect on accident rate.
There could easily be a counter balancing effect. For example, it
might be that riders tend to ride more aggressively when wearing a
reflective vest on the assumption that the vest would protect them
from harm. At the same time, vehicle drivers would more easily notice
bicyclists. The two effects cancel each other resulting in an
unchanged accident rate.

In the cycling community, there are many who believe absence of evidence
is trumped by an anecdote or two - as in "I _know_ that people no longer
pull out in front of me when I wear my lucky fluorescent socks!"

I think you mean phosphorescent, not fluorescent.
https://www.thoughtco.com/fluorescence-versus-phosphorescence-4063769
When in doubt, I suggest photoluminescent, which covers both types.
Incidentally, most phosphorescent materials do NOT contain phosphors.

A few hundred years ago, science had a problem. In vast expanses of
Asia, distances were sufficiently large that it was very difficult to
verify anyone's claims that contradicted the local leader, alchemist,
healer, or even one's own observations. When observation met dogma,
dogma would usually win because observation was subject to trickery,
spells, magic, and witchcraft, while dogma had the endorsement of
known local authorities that were beyond any need of having their
pontifications verified.

While most of the planet no longer practice science in this manner,
the effect hasn't completely disappeared. In college, more than one
of my friends reported that the local villagers would not believe a
word that he was saying, unless it was confirmed by their village
leader, and only deemed safe to touch after their witch doctor had
exorcised any lingering demons.

Whatever the magic talisman, users deem it every bit as effective as
medieval indulgences. Anyone who doubts is a heretic to be shouted down.

Magic talisman, charms, and safety equipment are also equally
effective. Much depends on whether the user is a true believer. For
example, at a former employer, we had an Amp wire crimper. The crump
lugs would arrive on a large reel, which was fed into the machine. The
operator would prepare a wire with the insulation stripped back a few
mm, feed it to the machine, stomp on a foot pedal, and the mechanism
would crimp the lug onto the end of the wire.

The machine had been operating for about 8 years without a single
accident. One day, the priests of the OSHA religion arrived and
declared that the machine was "unsafe". We were instructed to "make
it safe" or face a rather expensive fine. We contacted Amp and
ordered a rather expensive safety kit consisting of a pneumatically
powered clear plastic fence and a tangle of pneumatics to move the
fence. There was also dual safety buttons and a controller. The safe
way to crimp wire was now to insert the stripped wire, press the two
buttons simultaneously, which would drop the plastic fence, and enable
the foot switch, which could then be used to crimp the lug onto the
wire.

I vaguely recall that it took about 3 months to generate 5 trips to
the local emergency room for a variety of odd injuries. Most involved
having the plastic fence simulate a guillotine to some body part.
Fortunately, we had reduced the air pressure at the fence to the
minimum, so injuries were more like bruises and not broken bones or
amputations. I'll spare you the details.

The problem was that operators now believed that the addition of two
buttons and a plastic safety fence would protect them from the
machine. They took chances, they made modifications to the machinery,
they became sloppy, and they had accidents, all because they felt that
they were safe. A plastic safety fence is a rather odd looking
talisman, but functions in the same manner.

--
Jeff Liebermann
150 Felker St #D http://www.LearnByDestroying.com
Santa Cruz CA 95060 http://802.11junk.com
Skype: JeffLiebermann AE6KS 831-336-2558