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UK cyclists kill or maim two people a week



 
 
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  #11  
Old October 10th 17, 10:21 PM posted to uk.rec.cycling
TMS320
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Default UK cyclists kill or maim two people a week

On 10/10/17 17:42, Peter Parry wrote:
On Tue, 10 Oct 2017 13:09:04 +0100, TMS320 wrote:

But 6.8% of the injuries involving motor vehicles lead to death,
whereas only 1.8% of the injuries involving a bicycle do so. Which
also means that out of the whole spectrum of non-fatal injuries,
those from a bicycle must be much less severe. So yes, it
demonstrates that bicycles are considerably less dangerous.


Per distance traveled push bikes and cars cause quite similar levels
of death to pedestrians but


Pedestrian casualties per vehicle-distance is not a useful metric no
matter how much the tables try to break it down. Try to compare
bus/coach, vans and heavy goods. There is no fundamental difference in
these other than their duty.

I have some figures from France, where they break casualties down by
department (100 sets of data). In 2001, the pedestrian fatality rate
varied very little from 15 per million head of population, no matter
that the vehicle-distance per fatal varied by more than a factor of 10.

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  #12  
Old October 10th 17, 11:48 PM posted to uk.rec.cycling
Nick[_4_]
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Posts: 1,323
Default UK cyclists kill or maim two people a week

On 10/10/2017 22:21, TMS320 wrote:

Per distance traveled push bikes and cars cause quite similar levels
of death to pedestrians but


Pedestrian casualties per vehicle-distance is not a useful metric no
matter how much the tables try to break it down.


What is or isn't a useful metric all depends on the question it is
intended to answer.

I doubt Peter has a sensible question.

  #13  
Old October 11th 17, 09:01 AM posted to uk.rec.cycling
TMS320
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Posts: 3,875
Default UK cyclists kill or maim two people a week

On 10/10/17 23:48, Nick wrote:
On 10/10/2017 22:21, TMS320 wrote:

Per distance traveled push bikes and cars cause quite similar levels
of death to pedestrians but


Pedestrian casualties per vehicle-distance is not a useful metric no
matter how much the tables try to break it down.


What is or isn't a useful metric all depends on the question it is
intended to answer.


To know how far vehicles can be driven before a pedestrian is hurt, the
best question I can think of is to ask whether a spreadsheet is capable
of doing long division.

I doubt Peter has a sensible question.

  #14  
Old October 11th 17, 09:35 AM posted to uk.rec.cycling
Peter Parry
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Posts: 1,164
Default UK cyclists kill or maim two people a week

On Tue, 10 Oct 2017 12:06:02 -0700 (PDT), Simon Jester
wrote:

On Tuesday, October 10, 2017 at 5:42:41 PM UTC+1, Peter Parry wrote:
On Tue, 10 Oct 2017 13:09:04 +0100, TMS320 wrote:

But 6.8% of the injuries involving motor vehicles lead to death, whereas
only 1.8% of the injuries involving a bicycle do so. Which also means
that out of the whole spectrum of non-fatal injuries, those from a
bicycle must be much less severe. So yes, it demonstrates that bicycles
are considerably less dangerous.


Per distance traveled push bikes and cars cause quite similar levels
of death to pedestrians but push bikes cause significantly more
serious injuries than cars.

In 2016 pedal cyclists killed 0.9 pedestrians per billion km
traveled. They seriously injured 31.

Cars killed 1.1 and seriously injured 16 so similar death rates for
both but Pushbikes seriously injured twice as many as cars.

In terms of accident numbers, Pushbikes were involved in 5,430
accidents per billion km, cars in 476 so Pushbikes were involved in
about 11 times more accidents.

Pedestrians hit by a pushbike were 133, by a car 75.

(Reported casualty and accident rates by urban and rural roads, road
class, road user type, severity and pedestrian involvement, Great
Britain, 2016 Table RAS30018)

About 16% of fatal or serious cyclist accidents reported to the police
do not involve a collision with another vehicle, but are caused by the
rider losing control of their bicycle. In these cases about a quarter
involved excessive alcohol.


Do these figure take into account that the majority of car miles are on trunk roads where there are few, if any, pedestrians? Whilst bicycles spend most of their time in urban environments.

If not then they are worthless.


They do. On urban roads Pushbikes seriously injure 26 pedestrians per
billion km and kill 0.5, cars seriously injure 10 and kill 0.7.
  #15  
Old October 11th 17, 10:20 AM posted to uk.rec.cycling
TMS320
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Posts: 3,875
Default UK cyclists kill or maim two people a week

On 11/10/17 09:35, Peter Parry wrote:
On Tue, 10 Oct 2017 12:06:02 -0700 (PDT), Simon Jester


Do these figure take into account that the majority of car miles
are on trunk roads where there are few, if any, pedestrians? Whilst
bicycles spend most of their time in urban environments.

If not then they are worthless.


They do. On urban roads Pushbikes seriously injure 26 pedestrians
per billion km and kill 0.5, cars seriously injure 10 and kill 0.7.


So you love to push this. Irrespective of car bike/figures, explain why
you think pedestrian casualties per vehicle-distance is meaningful. Try
to bear in mind my earlier point about figures from France that show no
connection.

  #16  
Old October 11th 17, 12:28 PM posted to uk.rec.cycling
Peter Parry
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Posts: 1,164
Default UK cyclists kill or maim two people a week

On Wed, 11 Oct 2017 10:20:28 +0100, TMS320 wrote:

On 11/10/17 09:35, Peter Parry wrote:
On Tue, 10 Oct 2017 12:06:02 -0700 (PDT), Simon Jester


Do these figure take into account that the majority of car miles
are on trunk roads where there are few, if any, pedestrians? Whilst
bicycles spend most of their time in urban environments.

If not then they are worthless.


They do. On urban roads Pushbikes seriously injure 26 pedestrians
per billion km and kill 0.5, cars seriously injure 10 and kill 0.7.


So you love to push this.


"Push"? One mention of DfT statistics is pushing them?

Irrespective of car bike/figures, explain why
you think pedestrian casualties per vehicle-distance is meaningful.


What other measure would you prefer? Per journey is pretty
meaningless and almost impossible to measure.

An ongoing problem with pushbike accident statistics is their inherent
inaccuracy. It is widely accepted that they vastly underestimate the
number of accidents involving cyclists as most go unreported in
Stats19, the major source of accident data collected by police
attending accidents. Unlike motor vehicles where non-reported
accident data (on both insured and uninsured drivers) is available to
researchers from sources such as the Motor Insurers Bureau few
cyclists carry specific insurance and there is no equivalent of the
MIB to compensate people injured by cyclists so the number of
non-reported accidents is impossible to determine with any accuracy.

The one figure which can be relied upon is deaths - but the absolute
number of these is small so identifying trends or the effect of
measures to reduce them is difficult. Lumping in seriously injured
gives a bigger data set, but an inaccurate one. In many cycle related
accidents, especially those where no one else was involved, the event
does not appear in Stats19 as the police are not called. Go beyond
that to "minor" accidents where injury nonetheless occurs and the data
on cycling accidents is simply not collected in any reliable way at
all.

Try
to bear in mind my earlier point about figures from France that show no
connection.


Perhaps I have misunderstood your claim but it seem implausible.
French figures for 2010-2012 show wide variations in accident death
rates per million inhabitants in 95 districts ranging from 17 in
Hauts-de-Seine to 142 in Lozère. That shows all, not just cycling
related accidents but it seems unlikely that there will be a vast
difference in rates for push bikes. - do you have a link to the source
document?

  #17  
Old October 11th 17, 03:41 PM posted to uk.rec.cycling
Nick[_4_]
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Posts: 1,323
Default UK cyclists kill or maim two people a week

On 11/10/2017 12:28, Peter Parry wrote:

Irrespective of car bike/figures, explain why
you think pedestrian casualties per vehicle-distance is meaningful.


What other measure would you prefer? Per journey is pretty
meaningless and almost impossible to measure.


Prefer for what?

You quoted a figure we are wondering why?

The obvious suspicion is that you are stupid and thought it implied
something that it doesn't.

So don't be shy tell us what you think it implies.




  #18  
Old October 11th 17, 04:22 PM posted to uk.rec.cycling
Nick[_4_]
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Posts: 1,323
Default UK cyclists kill or maim two people a week

On 11/10/2017 09:01, TMS320 wrote:
On 10/10/17 23:48, Nick wrote:
On 10/10/2017 22:21, TMS320 wrote:

Per distance traveled push bikes and cars cause quite similar levels
of death to pedestrians but

Pedestrian casualties per vehicle-distance is not a useful metric no
matter how much the tables try to break it down.


What is or isn't a useful metric all depends on the question it is
intended to answer.


To know how far vehicles can be driven before a pedestrian is hurt, the
best question I can think of is to ask whether a spreadsheet is capable
of doing long division.


I would expect a spreadsheet to use cpu (fpu?) microcode. I'm pretty
sure they don't use long division but use a faster algorithm for division.

  #19  
Old October 12th 17, 01:07 AM posted to uk.rec.cycling
TMS320
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Posts: 3,875
Default UK cyclists kill or maim two people a week

On 11/10/17 12:28, Peter Parry wrote:
On Wed, 11 Oct 2017 10:20:28 +0100, TMS320 wrote:

On 11/10/17 09:35, Peter Parry wrote:
On Tue, 10 Oct 2017 12:06:02 -0700 (PDT), Simon Jester


Do these figure take into account that the majority of car miles
are on trunk roads where there are few, if any, pedestrians? Whilst
bicycles spend most of their time in urban environments.

If not then they are worthless.

They do. On urban roads Pushbikes seriously injure 26 pedestrians
per billion km and kill 0.5, cars seriously injure 10 and kill 0.7.


So you love to push this.


"Push"? One mention of DfT statistics is pushing them?


Yes. You have brought this up several times before. It is obvious you
think it is meaningful.

Irrespective of car bike/figures, explain why
you think pedestrian casualties per vehicle-distance is meaningful.


What other measure would you prefer? Per journey is pretty
meaningless and almost impossible to measure.


I asked you why you think pedestrian casualties per vehicle-distance is
meaningful. Don't evade the question.

Per trip is not perfect but less dependant on population distribution.

An ongoing problem with pushbike accident statistics is their inherent
inaccuracy. It is widely accepted that they vastly underestimate the
number of accidents involving cyclists as most go unreported in
Stats19, the major source of accident data collected by police
attending accidents. Unlike motor vehicles where non-reported
accident data (on both insured and uninsured drivers) is available to
researchers from sources such as the Motor Insurers Bureau few
cyclists carry specific insurance and there is no equivalent of the
MIB to compensate people injured by cyclists so the number of
non-reported accidents is impossible to determine with any accuracy.


Distances travelled are also very inaccurate. Questions in the census
are poorly framed and in the last one I couldn't put myself down as a
bicycle user. With motor vehicles it is easier to correlate distance
against things such as fuel usage.

The one figure which can be relied upon is deaths - but the absolute
number of these is small so identifying trends or the effect of
measures to reduce them is difficult. Lumping in seriously injured
gives a bigger data set, but an inaccurate one. In many cycle related
accidents, especially those where no one else was involved, the event
does not appear in Stats19 as the police are not called. Go beyond
that to "minor" accidents where injury nonetheless occurs and the data
on cycling accidents is simply not collected in any reliable way at
all.


An SVA is not relevant to pedestrian casualties. I have little concern
about self inflicted injuries.

Try
to bear in mind my earlier point about figures from France that show no
connection.


Perhaps I have misunderstood your claim but it seem implausible.
French figures for 2010-2012 show wide variations in accident death
rates per million inhabitants in 95 districts ranging from 17 in
Hauts-de-Seine to 142 in Lozère. That shows all, not just cycling
related accidents but it seems unlikely that there will be a vast
difference in rates for push bikes. - do you have a link to the source
document?


Only pedestrian deaths are being discussed here. In 2001 in Lozerre
there were 9 deaths (122 per million), zero in 2002, 1 in 2003, 1 in
2005: in Haute-de-Seine there were 15 in 2001 and 12 in 2002 (8.4 per
million). In 2002 the average was 14.55 per million with only 18
departments above 20. It looks like something exceptional happened in
Lozerre in 2001.

The data was taken from data.gouv.fr. The data for the years I have is
no longer available and in recent years they have reduced the breakdown.

  #20  
Old October 13th 17, 02:04 PM posted to uk.rec.cycling
Nick[_4_]
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Posts: 1,323
Default UK cyclists kill or maim two people a week

On 13/10/2017 00:28, TMS320 wrote:
On 12/10/17 22:11, Peter Parry wrote:
On Thu, 12 Oct 2017 01:07:40 +0100, TMS320 wrote:

On 11/10/17 12:28, Peter Parry wrote:
On Wed, 11 Oct 2017 10:20:28 +0100, TMS320 wrote:

On 11/10/17 09:35, Peter Parry wrote:
On Tue, 10 Oct 2017 12:06:02 -0700 (PDT), Simon Jester

Do these figure take into account that the majority of car miles
are on trunk roads where there are few, if any, pedestrians? Whilst
bicycles spend most of their time in urban environments.

If not then they are worthless.

They do. On urban roads Pushbikes seriously injure 26 pedestrians
per billion km and kill 0.5, cars seriously injure 10 and kill 0.7.

So you love to push this.

"Push"?Â* One mention of DfT statistics is pushing them?

Yes. You have brought this up several times before. It is obvious you
think it is meaningful.


It is clearly meaningful as it is the data used by the government to
make decisions.

I asked you why you think pedestrian casualties per vehicle-distance is
meaningful. Don't evade the question.


Of course it is.


That doesn't answer the question.


You won't get an answer. He won't even attempt an answer because he
knows he isn't clever enough.

FWIW the effect you are talking about with respect urban/non urban trips
is called Simpson's Paradox.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simpson%27s_paradox

 




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