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#11
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UK cyclists kill or maim two people a week
On 10/10/17 17:42, Peter Parry wrote:
On Tue, 10 Oct 2017 13:09:04 +0100, TMS320 wrote: But 6.8% of the injuries involving motor vehicles lead to death, whereas only 1.8% of the injuries involving a bicycle do so. Which also means that out of the whole spectrum of non-fatal injuries, those from a bicycle must be much less severe. So yes, it demonstrates that bicycles are considerably less dangerous. Per distance traveled push bikes and cars cause quite similar levels of death to pedestrians but Pedestrian casualties per vehicle-distance is not a useful metric no matter how much the tables try to break it down. Try to compare bus/coach, vans and heavy goods. There is no fundamental difference in these other than their duty. I have some figures from France, where they break casualties down by department (100 sets of data). In 2001, the pedestrian fatality rate varied very little from 15 per million head of population, no matter that the vehicle-distance per fatal varied by more than a factor of 10. |
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#12
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UK cyclists kill or maim two people a week
On 10/10/2017 22:21, TMS320 wrote:
Per distance traveled push bikes and cars cause quite similar levels of death to pedestrians but Pedestrian casualties per vehicle-distance is not a useful metric no matter how much the tables try to break it down. What is or isn't a useful metric all depends on the question it is intended to answer. I doubt Peter has a sensible question. |
#13
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UK cyclists kill or maim two people a week
On 10/10/17 23:48, Nick wrote:
On 10/10/2017 22:21, TMS320 wrote: Per distance traveled push bikes and cars cause quite similar levels of death to pedestrians but Pedestrian casualties per vehicle-distance is not a useful metric no matter how much the tables try to break it down. What is or isn't a useful metric all depends on the question it is intended to answer. To know how far vehicles can be driven before a pedestrian is hurt, the best question I can think of is to ask whether a spreadsheet is capable of doing long division. I doubt Peter has a sensible question. |
#14
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UK cyclists kill or maim two people a week
On Tue, 10 Oct 2017 12:06:02 -0700 (PDT), Simon Jester
wrote: On Tuesday, October 10, 2017 at 5:42:41 PM UTC+1, Peter Parry wrote: On Tue, 10 Oct 2017 13:09:04 +0100, TMS320 wrote: But 6.8% of the injuries involving motor vehicles lead to death, whereas only 1.8% of the injuries involving a bicycle do so. Which also means that out of the whole spectrum of non-fatal injuries, those from a bicycle must be much less severe. So yes, it demonstrates that bicycles are considerably less dangerous. Per distance traveled push bikes and cars cause quite similar levels of death to pedestrians but push bikes cause significantly more serious injuries than cars. In 2016 pedal cyclists killed 0.9 pedestrians per billion km traveled. They seriously injured 31. Cars killed 1.1 and seriously injured 16 so similar death rates for both but Pushbikes seriously injured twice as many as cars. In terms of accident numbers, Pushbikes were involved in 5,430 accidents per billion km, cars in 476 so Pushbikes were involved in about 11 times more accidents. Pedestrians hit by a pushbike were 133, by a car 75. (Reported casualty and accident rates by urban and rural roads, road class, road user type, severity and pedestrian involvement, Great Britain, 2016 Table RAS30018) About 16% of fatal or serious cyclist accidents reported to the police do not involve a collision with another vehicle, but are caused by the rider losing control of their bicycle. In these cases about a quarter involved excessive alcohol. Do these figure take into account that the majority of car miles are on trunk roads where there are few, if any, pedestrians? Whilst bicycles spend most of their time in urban environments. If not then they are worthless. They do. On urban roads Pushbikes seriously injure 26 pedestrians per billion km and kill 0.5, cars seriously injure 10 and kill 0.7. |
#15
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UK cyclists kill or maim two people a week
On 11/10/17 09:35, Peter Parry wrote:
On Tue, 10 Oct 2017 12:06:02 -0700 (PDT), Simon Jester Do these figure take into account that the majority of car miles are on trunk roads where there are few, if any, pedestrians? Whilst bicycles spend most of their time in urban environments. If not then they are worthless. They do. On urban roads Pushbikes seriously injure 26 pedestrians per billion km and kill 0.5, cars seriously injure 10 and kill 0.7. So you love to push this. Irrespective of car bike/figures, explain why you think pedestrian casualties per vehicle-distance is meaningful. Try to bear in mind my earlier point about figures from France that show no connection. |
#16
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UK cyclists kill or maim two people a week
On Wed, 11 Oct 2017 10:20:28 +0100, TMS320 wrote:
On 11/10/17 09:35, Peter Parry wrote: On Tue, 10 Oct 2017 12:06:02 -0700 (PDT), Simon Jester Do these figure take into account that the majority of car miles are on trunk roads where there are few, if any, pedestrians? Whilst bicycles spend most of their time in urban environments. If not then they are worthless. They do. On urban roads Pushbikes seriously injure 26 pedestrians per billion km and kill 0.5, cars seriously injure 10 and kill 0.7. So you love to push this. "Push"? One mention of DfT statistics is pushing them? Irrespective of car bike/figures, explain why you think pedestrian casualties per vehicle-distance is meaningful. What other measure would you prefer? Per journey is pretty meaningless and almost impossible to measure. An ongoing problem with pushbike accident statistics is their inherent inaccuracy. It is widely accepted that they vastly underestimate the number of accidents involving cyclists as most go unreported in Stats19, the major source of accident data collected by police attending accidents. Unlike motor vehicles where non-reported accident data (on both insured and uninsured drivers) is available to researchers from sources such as the Motor Insurers Bureau few cyclists carry specific insurance and there is no equivalent of the MIB to compensate people injured by cyclists so the number of non-reported accidents is impossible to determine with any accuracy. The one figure which can be relied upon is deaths - but the absolute number of these is small so identifying trends or the effect of measures to reduce them is difficult. Lumping in seriously injured gives a bigger data set, but an inaccurate one. In many cycle related accidents, especially those where no one else was involved, the event does not appear in Stats19 as the police are not called. Go beyond that to "minor" accidents where injury nonetheless occurs and the data on cycling accidents is simply not collected in any reliable way at all. Try to bear in mind my earlier point about figures from France that show no connection. Perhaps I have misunderstood your claim but it seem implausible. French figures for 2010-2012 show wide variations in accident death rates per million inhabitants in 95 districts ranging from 17 in Hauts-de-Seine to 142 in Lozère. That shows all, not just cycling related accidents but it seems unlikely that there will be a vast difference in rates for push bikes. - do you have a link to the source document? |
#17
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UK cyclists kill or maim two people a week
On 11/10/2017 12:28, Peter Parry wrote:
Irrespective of car bike/figures, explain why you think pedestrian casualties per vehicle-distance is meaningful. What other measure would you prefer? Per journey is pretty meaningless and almost impossible to measure. Prefer for what? You quoted a figure we are wondering why? The obvious suspicion is that you are stupid and thought it implied something that it doesn't. So don't be shy tell us what you think it implies. |
#18
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UK cyclists kill or maim two people a week
On 11/10/2017 09:01, TMS320 wrote:
On 10/10/17 23:48, Nick wrote: On 10/10/2017 22:21, TMS320 wrote: Per distance traveled push bikes and cars cause quite similar levels of death to pedestrians but Pedestrian casualties per vehicle-distance is not a useful metric no matter how much the tables try to break it down. What is or isn't a useful metric all depends on the question it is intended to answer. To know how far vehicles can be driven before a pedestrian is hurt, the best question I can think of is to ask whether a spreadsheet is capable of doing long division. I would expect a spreadsheet to use cpu (fpu?) microcode. I'm pretty sure they don't use long division but use a faster algorithm for division. |
#19
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UK cyclists kill or maim two people a week
On 11/10/17 12:28, Peter Parry wrote:
On Wed, 11 Oct 2017 10:20:28 +0100, TMS320 wrote: On 11/10/17 09:35, Peter Parry wrote: On Tue, 10 Oct 2017 12:06:02 -0700 (PDT), Simon Jester Do these figure take into account that the majority of car miles are on trunk roads where there are few, if any, pedestrians? Whilst bicycles spend most of their time in urban environments. If not then they are worthless. They do. On urban roads Pushbikes seriously injure 26 pedestrians per billion km and kill 0.5, cars seriously injure 10 and kill 0.7. So you love to push this. "Push"? One mention of DfT statistics is pushing them? Yes. You have brought this up several times before. It is obvious you think it is meaningful. Irrespective of car bike/figures, explain why you think pedestrian casualties per vehicle-distance is meaningful. What other measure would you prefer? Per journey is pretty meaningless and almost impossible to measure. I asked you why you think pedestrian casualties per vehicle-distance is meaningful. Don't evade the question. Per trip is not perfect but less dependant on population distribution. An ongoing problem with pushbike accident statistics is their inherent inaccuracy. It is widely accepted that they vastly underestimate the number of accidents involving cyclists as most go unreported in Stats19, the major source of accident data collected by police attending accidents. Unlike motor vehicles where non-reported accident data (on both insured and uninsured drivers) is available to researchers from sources such as the Motor Insurers Bureau few cyclists carry specific insurance and there is no equivalent of the MIB to compensate people injured by cyclists so the number of non-reported accidents is impossible to determine with any accuracy. Distances travelled are also very inaccurate. Questions in the census are poorly framed and in the last one I couldn't put myself down as a bicycle user. With motor vehicles it is easier to correlate distance against things such as fuel usage. The one figure which can be relied upon is deaths - but the absolute number of these is small so identifying trends or the effect of measures to reduce them is difficult. Lumping in seriously injured gives a bigger data set, but an inaccurate one. In many cycle related accidents, especially those where no one else was involved, the event does not appear in Stats19 as the police are not called. Go beyond that to "minor" accidents where injury nonetheless occurs and the data on cycling accidents is simply not collected in any reliable way at all. An SVA is not relevant to pedestrian casualties. I have little concern about self inflicted injuries. Try to bear in mind my earlier point about figures from France that show no connection. Perhaps I have misunderstood your claim but it seem implausible. French figures for 2010-2012 show wide variations in accident death rates per million inhabitants in 95 districts ranging from 17 in Hauts-de-Seine to 142 in Lozère. That shows all, not just cycling related accidents but it seems unlikely that there will be a vast difference in rates for push bikes. - do you have a link to the source document? Only pedestrian deaths are being discussed here. In 2001 in Lozerre there were 9 deaths (122 per million), zero in 2002, 1 in 2003, 1 in 2005: in Haute-de-Seine there were 15 in 2001 and 12 in 2002 (8.4 per million). In 2002 the average was 14.55 per million with only 18 departments above 20. It looks like something exceptional happened in Lozerre in 2001. The data was taken from data.gouv.fr. The data for the years I have is no longer available and in recent years they have reduced the breakdown. |
#20
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UK cyclists kill or maim two people a week
On 13/10/2017 00:28, TMS320 wrote:
On 12/10/17 22:11, Peter Parry wrote: On Thu, 12 Oct 2017 01:07:40 +0100, TMS320 wrote: On 11/10/17 12:28, Peter Parry wrote: On Wed, 11 Oct 2017 10:20:28 +0100, TMS320 wrote: On 11/10/17 09:35, Peter Parry wrote: On Tue, 10 Oct 2017 12:06:02 -0700 (PDT), Simon Jester Do these figure take into account that the majority of car miles are on trunk roads where there are few, if any, pedestrians? Whilst bicycles spend most of their time in urban environments. If not then they are worthless. They do. On urban roads Pushbikes seriously injure 26 pedestrians per billion km and kill 0.5, cars seriously injure 10 and kill 0.7. So you love to push this. "Push"?Â* One mention of DfT statistics is pushing them? Yes. You have brought this up several times before. It is obvious you think it is meaningful. It is clearly meaningful as it is the data used by the government to make decisions. I asked you why you think pedestrian casualties per vehicle-distance is meaningful. Don't evade the question. Of course it is. That doesn't answer the question. You won't get an answer. He won't even attempt an answer because he knows he isn't clever enough. FWIW the effect you are talking about with respect urban/non urban trips is called Simpson's Paradox. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simpson%27s_paradox |
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