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#112
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Shimano Headset
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#113
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#114
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#115
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Shimano Headset
The overconfidence and "bigger hit area"
arguments I accept as arguments, however how it plays out in the data who knows. However the comparisons over time I don't know as there might be many things changing during that time and it is very difficult to single out what leads to what and what doesn't influence. Also comparing bike and pedestrian accidents aren't the same things with many different factors involved. It would be better if there were stats like this: this year, there has been x accidents. Of those, h(x) involved severe head injuries. How many bikers in h(x) used helmets? -- underground experts united http://user.it.uu.se/~embe8573 |
#116
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Shimano Headset
On 5/15/2017 10:27 PM, Frank Krygowski wrote:
On 5/15/2017 9:58 PM, wrote: On Mon, 15 May 2017 20:08:50 -0400, Frank Krygowski wrote: On 5/15/2017 4:35 PM, Sir Ridesalot wrote: On Monday, May 15, 2017 at 4:05:27 PM UTC-4, wrote: Snipped A helmet doesn't make you bullet-proof or immortal. I still take all other sensible precautions when using tools too - not depending on safety glasses to protect me from stupidity, but giving my eyes a fighting chance in case carefull use of the tools still sends something flying towards my eyes. Don't know about you, but I can only blink SO fast - - - Might as well give it up now. In this newsgroup those who oppose helmet use do so vehemently and will NEVER be persuaded that a helmet can help. :-) And by the same token, most of the people who religiously believe in the great TBI risk of bicycling and the great protective value of bike helmets will never give up those beliefs. I think most of them are convinced that if they hadn't worn helmets all their lives, bicycling would have killed them. Which is really odd, considering that bike helmets weren't available until the mid-1970s. Your lagic totally escapes me. From your previous post. Sat the risk of being involved in a serious accident where a seat belt may help is 1 in 10,000 on a given day under normal legal driving conditions (in really bad traffic). You are wearing a seat belt, so you think you are safer, so drive 20% over the speed limit, pass on solid lines, text and drink coffee on the way, and perhaps even have a nip before heading home just because seat belts are supposed to reduce the severity of injuries by 30%. 30% of 1 in 10,000. But your new "safer" driving habits increase your risk of a serious accident by, say 50%. Are you safer because you are wearing a seat belt? Certainly not, and only a mentally deficient would think so. I thiunk you overestimate the stupidity of the average person (perhaps based on personal experience)? Perhaps you should do some reading on risk compensation. Let me know if you need help finding information. (They have this thing called Google.) Oh heck, here, I'll help. http://injuryprevention.bmj.com/content/7/2/89 https://www.damninteresting.com/the-balance-of-risk/ http://www.selectinternational.com/s...ersonal-safety https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Risk_compensation I don't expect you to read an entire book on the subject, but you should at least try to gain a little background knowledge. -- - Frank Krygowski |
#117
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Shimano Headset
On 5/15/2017 10:41 PM, Emanuel Berg wrote:
The overconfidence and "bigger hit area" arguments I accept as arguments, however how it plays out in the data who knows. However the comparisons over time I don't know as there might be many things changing during that time and it is very difficult to single out what leads to what and what doesn't influence. Also comparing bike and pedestrian accidents aren't the same things with many different factors involved. It would be better if there were stats like this: this year, there has been x accidents. Of those, h(x) involved severe head injuries. How many bikers in h(x) used helmets? None of this is dead simple. There are always confounding factors. In my view, even what you propose does not tell the whole story, or allow for a perfect decision. Why? Because your proposed stats could be gathered for any activity; yet people think about those things only for helmets on bicyclists and motorcyclists. Now I ride both bicycles and motorcycles. But I know the risk of serious TBI is far, far less on a bicycle than on motorcycle. (Fatalaties per hour are over 30 times greater for motorcycling than for bicycling.) In fact, researcher (John Pucher) has computed that in America, pedestrians have over triple the risk of fatality per km traveled compared to bicyclists. And the data I've found (cited in a paper I linked earlier) shows that about 45% of bicycle fatalities are due to TBI, and about 40% of pedestrian fatalities are due to TBI - in other words, that difference is small. So when you look at the total numbers of annual fatalities (about 800 for bikes, about 4500 or more for pedestrians) it's clear that the pedestrian TBI problem is far bigger in every way. So, why do we not do studies of the number of severe head injuries of pedestrians with and without helmets? Answer: Because there has never been a huge propaganda campaign pointing out the head injury risks of walking. And nobody has seriously tried to sell helmets for pedestrians. That's true even though the problem is far bigger than for biking. -- - Frank Krygowski |
#118
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Shimano Headset
On Mon, 15 May 2017 14:27:53 -0400, wrote:
On Mon, 15 May 2017 11:31:47 -0400, Frank Krygowski wrote: On 5/14/2017 11:41 PM, wrote: On Sun, 14 May 2017 22:47:00 -0400, Frank Krygowski wrote: On 5/14/2017 10:04 PM, wrote: On Mon, 15 May 2017 08:54:22 +0700, John B. Any safety equipment that is not overly intrusive is worth using ??? Really?? OK, do you wear a bike helmet when driving to the start of a bike ride? I wear my bike helmet whenever I ride my bike(s) If you mean when in my car, don't be stupid. I guess I have to stipulate any "appropriate" safety equipment. You're deciding what's "appropriate" based on fashion driven by propaganda. You've been told it's appropriate to wear a helmet when riding a bike - but why? Is it because bicycling is a major source of traumatic brain injury? No, it's only about 1% of the TBI problem in America. Motoring and walking cause far more. Is it because the risk of serious or fatal TBI per mile traveled is so high on a bike? No, it's roughly 1/3 that of walking, per mile. Is it because the cost to society of bike TBI is so high? No, it's dwarfed by the cost to society from auto TBI, not to mention just walking-around-the-house TBI. Is it because your collapsible steering wheel, air bags and seat belts remove the risk of motoring TBI? No, despite those features, riding in a car causes huge amounts of TBI. I'm not making this stuff up. Car helmets have been very seriously proposed, and those proposing them have pointed out that they'd be much more cost effective than many other measures, like air bags. They could be far more pleasant to wear than bike helmets, too, partly because of the non-exertion and climate control. Don't distract us about welding without goggles or grinding without safety glasses. Your ability to name two appropriate bits of safety equipment doesn't make all safety promotions rational. If you want to argue for bike helmets, first look at relative risk levels for individuals and at relative costs to society; because it makes little sense to put huge focus on a nearly non-existent problem. Then look at actual effectiveness, or lack of same, in the real world, not in tiny and confounded "case control" studies. (For example, you might try to explain why pedestrian fatalities have fallen faster than bike fatalities for the past 20 years, given that pedestrians stubbornly refuse to wear helmets.) Then you might deal with the benefits vs. detriments of bike helmets and of the "dangerizing" of bicycling. Every study done on the topic has found the benefits of bicycling FAR outweigh its tiny risks. Why would you scare people away from riding by pretending it's safe only with a weird plastic hat? Like I said, we will have to agree to dissagree. Read the data I sent you. Not saying cycling is inherently dangerous, but it does have it's risks - which can be significantly reduced by wearing a suitable helmet. But, based on the statistics that Frank quotes above, the dangers of a severe head injury is far greater when driving an auto or even walking. Do you wear an approved helmet when walking or driving an auto? If not then why on a bicycle where a head injury is far less likely to happen? -- Cheers, John B. |
#119
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Shimano Headset
On Mon, 15 May 2017 20:03:39 -0400, Frank Krygowski
wrote: On 5/15/2017 4:05 PM, wrote: On Mon, 15 May 2017 12:50:56 -0700 (PDT), wrote: On Sunday, May 14, 2017 at 8:41:39 PM UTC-7, wrote: On Sun, 14 May 2017 22:47:00 -0400, Frank Krygowski wrote: On 5/14/2017 10:04 PM, wrote: On Mon, 15 May 2017 08:54:22 +0700, John B. Any safety equipment that is not overly intrusive is worth using ??? Really?? OK, do you wear a bike helmet when driving to the start of a bike ride? I wear my bike helmet whenever I ride my bike(s) If you mean when in my car, don't be stupid. I guess I have to stipulate any "appropriate" safety equipment. In my car (which has a colapsible steering column, air bags, and seat belts) I wear my seat belts. When driving my motorcycle I always wore an approved helmet and good shoes/boots. I would NEVER ride in shorts and tee-shirt wearing flip-flops or tennis shoes. I also won't mow the lawn barefoot, or use a grinder without safety glasses, or weld without goggles. To do otherwise is shear stupidity. And we aren't suggesting you don't. We are suggesting that you don't take chances you wouldn't take because you are wearing a helmet. And as I stated earlier, only a TOTAL IDIOT would take extra chances just because he's wearing a helmet (or a seatbelt in a car). A helmet doesn't make you bullet-proof or immortal. Again, the behavior you limit to only total idiots is instead perfectly normal among humans. It's been demonstrated time and again. It applies not only to helmets, but to countless different safety devices. Read the book _Risk_ by John Adams. I believe that was the one that noted the initial effect of Britain's mandatory seat belt laws. See, Britain first mandated seat belts only for drivers, predicting great reductions in traffic fatalities. After the first year, it turned out that driver fatalities did indeed drop; but at the same time, the numbers of passenger fatalities and pedestrian fatalities jumped! The most common explanation was that the drivers felt more protected, and therefore took more risks. Others suffered from their "protected" confidence. The phenomenon is sometimes called Risk Compensation, sometimes Risk Homeostasis. One theory is that most people have some personal level of perceived risk with which they are comfortable. Up to that level, they'll often engage in riskier behavior to gain other benefits like less travel time, for example. If they feel more protected, they'll try for more of the benefit - say, by driving faster. (Or by riding a bike on a road they'd otherwise avoid.) Which is not irrational, really! But it breaks down when the safety benefit is overstated or illusory. Then the increased acceptance of risk outstripped the protective capacity. And the "85%" benefit for bike helmets was certainly grossly exaggerated, but was the most widely accepted number for a long time. (Some say bicyclists would not take extra risk because of fear of other injury; but helmeteers warned ONLY of TBI risk, never of other risks of bicycling.) I might add that someone here, recently stated that he felt much safer surrounded by sheet metal and glass then riding a bike although statistically he is far more likely to have an auto accident then a bike accident. -- Cheers, John B. |
#120
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Shimano Headset
On Mon, 15 May 2017 14:48:09 -0700 (PDT), Sir Ridesalot
wrote: On Monday, May 15, 2017 at 4:44:46 PM UTC-4, jbeattie wrote: Snipped That would do. I think Joerg is a special case and could use a tool and some master links because he breaks chains. If you don't break chains . . . I've broken a couple of chains because I messed up reassembly or, in one case, I had an odd shift on to the big ring and up-shift, and the quick-link snapped open. I probably side-loaded the chain in some odd way. I had no chain tool, but I was close enough to home that I could scooter until my wife came to pick me up. I broke one chain in the middle of nowhere, but I was on tour and had a chain tool. Another mis-assembled chain broke on the way to work, but I was close enough to work to scooter the last bit, and then I bought a cheap chain tool at lunch. The bad part was dealing with a greasy chain in my backpack. -- Jay Beattie. Indeed does Joerg appear to be a special case. However, if I experienced the number of problems/reakages that he does then I'd be carrying a pretty comprehensive repar kit with tools and parts that I'd most likely need. MAybe what Joerg needs to do is fix up a method of towing another bike behind the one that he rides and that way when one bike breaks something major he can then rather than having to walk 20+ miles back to civilization he could just ride the extra bike back and tow the werecked one behind it. Cheers I can only say that although I rarely, based on distances cycled, have a flat I carry a spare tube and patch kit and while I even less frequently break a chain I still carry a chain tool and a couple of chain links. Strange though, although I've had far fewer bike crashes than flat tires everyone says "wear a helmet" :-) -- Cheers, John B. |
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