A number I'd like to know...

"Sheldon Brown" wrote in message
...

Suppose that bicycles were totally banned, and that every mile of
bicycle travel was then replaced by an automobile trip.

I rather expect the increase in oil consumption would be unnoticeable.

Using myself as an example (as we all seem to be doing), I would drive an
additional 4000 miles a year or so (accepting your stipulation; in real life
I would take the train).

Now, I work in a place with an above-average number of bike commuters (it's
an urban natural history museum). But we are still less than 10% of the
employees, and I ride the most commuting miles of anyone there. My estimate
is that if all of our bike commuters drove instead, we would have to buy
perhaps 1500 gallons of gas per year.

There are, I daresay, millions of car owners who buy that much gas in a year
for one or two cars.

So if replacing all of my museum's bike commuters with drivers would have no
more impact than adding two suburban car owners to the general population
would, I rather doubt that bike commuting is saving all that much oil.

Here's an attempt at some numbers:

One source says that US gas consumption is 375.3 million gallons per day.
(My co-workers and I would add maybe 5 gallons a day to that.)

Let's say the average bike commuter rides 10 miles a day. Let's say that
represents one gallon of gas (they would all replace their bikes with Chevy
Avalanches). These figures are both exaggerated, IMO (most cars get better
mileage; most bike commutes are shorter) but they're easy to work with: one
gallon per day per rider.

To raise the total by one tenth of one percent -- 375,300 gallons -- would
take the same number of bike commuters switching. So how many bike commuters
are there?

The late Ken Kifer quotes the 2000 US Census as saying there are "between
411,000 and 750,000 people over the age of 16 who ride bicycles more miles
than any other vehicle to get to work during an average week." That would
translate to a bump of between one-tenth and two-tenths of a percent
increase in gas consumption if they all drove.

Other sources give figures as high as 5 million cycling commuters. If true,
that would yield a 1.3% increase in total gas consumption.

That's a big range -- .1% to 1.3% -- and if I had to bet, I'd bet in the low
end of that range.

But that's not why we ride, is it? When I drive, gas is only 20% of the cost
of the trip, and it takes just as long, and I don't have to go to the gym.

RichC

"Mark Heiple" wrote

What about it makes it unsuitable for biking?

Lousy, urban, narrow, broken up roads, with heavy traffic.

Move a block or two off the main road. The streets are much smoother and
quieter.

Pete

"Terry Morse" wrote


I have an estimate, reasonable or not. For the USA:

- Estimated annual cycling distance: 15-21 billion/year
- Estimated vehicle fuel consumption: 20.5 miles/vehicle-gallon
- Estimated vehicle occupancy: 1.6 (passengers/vehicle)

So high estimate for gallons of gasoline required to replace cycling:

(21 billion miles/year) / [ (20.5 mph) * (1.6 passengers) ]

640 million gallons per year

How many of those are strictly recreational/training/racing miles?

I think we need to count only utility (errands and commuting) miles

Pete

In rec.bicycles.misc Pete wrote:
I think we need to count only utility (errands and commuting) miles

why? people don't drive their cars recreationally? if i weren't riding
recreationally and i didn't bike i'd likely be driving somewhere to
recreate. the correlation won't be 1:1 (it isn't anyway) but it's not 0.
--
david reuteler

Sheldon Brown wrote in message ...
I'm thinking there is a number that might be useful to cycling
advocates, but I don't have the data to calculate it or even to make
a reasonable estimate...but maybe someone on the list does.

Suppose that bicycles were totally banned, and that every mile of
bicycle travel was then replaced by an automobile trip.

How many additional gallons of gasoline per day or per year would
then be consumed?

Anybody have a reasonable estimate?


I read a stat a few years back:

A _good_ fuel economy car gets ~50mi/gallon
If you take the energy in 1 gallon in gasoline, and translate it into
food energy...the average bike rider would get ~12500mi/"gallon".


So - it doesn't help solve your question since we as riders don't
"burn" gasoline today, but it's certainly interesting if you ask me.

-a

Well, in North America, I doubt you'd see a significant difference. The
cycling population is dwarfed by the driving population.
In the third world \ Asia, I think all hell would break loose. When you
think of the population density, I would forsee gridlock.

--
--------------------------
Andre Charlebois
AGC-PC support
http://agc-pc.tripod.com
BPE, MCSE4.0, CNA, A+

"Sheldon Brown" wrote in message
...
I'm thinking there is a number that might be useful to cycling
advocates, but I don't have the data to calculate it or even to make
a reasonable estimate...but maybe someone on the list does.

Suppose that bicycles were totally banned, and that every mile of
bicycle travel was then replaced by an automobile trip.

How many additional gallons of gasoline per day or per year would
then be consumed?

Anybody have a reasonable estimate?

Sheldon "Numbers" Brown
+----------------------------------------+
| Cyclists fare best when they act and |
| are treated as drivers of vehicles. |
| -- John Forester |
| http://www.johnforester.com/ |
+----------------------------------------+
Harris Cyclery, West Newton, Massachusetts
Phone 617-244-9772 FAX 617-244-1041
http://harriscyclery.com
Hard-to-find parts shipped Worldwide
http://captainbike.com http://sheldonbrown.com

(Andrew Martin) wrote:

I read a stat a few years back:

A _good_ fuel economy car gets ~50mi/gallon
If you take the energy in 1 gallon in gasoline, and translate it into
food energy...the average bike rider would get ~12500mi/"gallon".

Yeah, but the taste... blech!

Mark Hickey
Habanero Cycles
http://www.habcycles.com
Home of the $695 ti frame

http://www.kenkifer.com
http://www.kenkifer.com/bikepages/survey/index.htm
Ken noted just how unreliable and unreasonable these statistics are.

Sheldon Brown wrote:

I'm thinking there is a number that might be useful to cycling
advocates, but I don't have the data to calculate it or even to make
a reasonable estimate...but maybe someone on the list does.

Suppose that bicycles were totally banned, and that every mile of
bicycle travel was then replaced by an automobile trip.

How many additional gallons of gasoline per day or per year would
then be consumed?

Anybody have a reasonable estimate?

Sheldon "Numbers" Brown
+----------------------------------------+
| Cyclists fare best when they act and |
| are treated as drivers of vehicles. |
| -- John Forester |
| http://www.johnforester.com/ |
+----------------------------------------+
Harris Cyclery, West Newton, Massachusetts
Phone 617-244-9772 FAX 617-244-1041
http://harriscyclery.com
Hard-to-find parts shipped Worldwide
http://captainbike.com http://sheldonbrown.com

qtq wrote:

do cyclists drive SUVs,

Well...last weekend I went for a delightful 40 mile ride on my Quickbeam
fixed gear, in the countryside west of Boston...Lexington, Concord,
Carlisle, Sudbury, Weston then back home to Newton.

It was a gorgeous day, some of the leaves are just beginning to turn. I
was on beautiful winding roads, well paved with rolling terrain,
listening to Das Rheingold on my iPod and having an absolutely
delightful time...but, as I was riding along in this cheerful mode, I
couldn't help but be surprised at how many big SUVs drove past me with
shiny clean high-end mountain bikes on them...they didn't know what they
were missing.

Sheldon "Bemused" Brown
+-----------------------------------------------------------+
| I rise only to say I do not intend to say anything. |
| I thank you for your kind words and your hearty welcome. |
| --Ulysses S. Grant |
+-----------------------------------------------------------+
Harris Cyclery, West Newton, Massachusetts
Phone 617-244-9772 FAX 617-244-1041
http://harriscyclery.com
Hard-to-find parts shipped Worldwide
http://captainbike.com http://sheldonbrown.com

Terry Morse wrote:



I have an estimate, reasonable or not. For the USA:

- Estimated annual cycling distance: 15-21 billion/year

Do you have a source for that estimate, or an explanation? It's a
difficult number to find.

--
--------------------+
Frank Krygowski [To reply, remove rodent and vegetable dot com,
replace with cc.ysu dot edu]