Carry On About Steel

Frank - Doing another 50 mile ride yesterday I concentrated on the feel of the bike. Originally I removed all of the parts from my Colnago Dream Reflux (all al save fork) and put them on the Eddy Merckx Corsa Extra. On the Colnago you HAD to get out of the saddle on bumps whereas on the Eddy, which is a stiff steel bike, I simply didn't need to. The difference in the impact on your body is so marked that you simply cannot question it.

And because of this lower impact you have far less fear of cornering and hitting a bump in the middle of it. I find that descending very fast on twisty roads to be easy when I was always nervous on other materials.

Now there WERE flexy comfortable AL and CF bikes like the Vitus and my Look 247 but these appear to have gone out of date.

While trying to think of how to quantify this I still do not have a calculation but it would be very complex.

And it seems like more and more people are coming to these conclusions as well. Locally the sales of CF road bikes have dropped off too dramatically at least one more bike shop has gone out of business and another is only open half time. The local steel bike specialist appears to be improving.

Though I wonder how much has to do with CF bikes now looking so massive while a steel bike looks so simply in comparison.

On Monday, November 14, 2016 at 10:09:35 AM UTC-6, wrote:

And it seems like more and more people are coming to these conclusions as well. Locally the sales of CF road bikes have dropped off too dramatically at least one more bike shop has gone out of business and another is only open half time. The local steel bike specialist appears to be improving.


Odd conclusions you have. Lets come up with more rational conclusions.

1. How do you know carbon fiber bike sales have dropped off? Do you have sales data from all the bike shops? Observing the bikes you see on the road or trail is not too precise.

2. The out of business bike shop? Did it charge higher prices, provide poor service? The specific bikes it sells can have an effect. But other things are probably far more important. And every bike shop I have seen sell steel, aluminum, and carbon bikes at many price levels. Road, mountain, hybrid, kids. No bike shop has a very limited stock of bikes to sell. They sell everything.

3. Local steel specialist. Has he become more involved in the business? Has he increased advertising and promotions? Did he go from part time to full time dedicated? Does he have a good business plan while the bike shops do not? Lot of reasons this one guy appears to be improving and the others declining. Unrelated to the material he works with. And you did say "appears to be improving". What proof do you have that his sales are up?

On 11/14/2016 11:40 AM, wrote:
On Monday, November 14, 2016 at 10:09:35 AM UTC-6, wrote:

And it seems like more and more people are coming to these conclusions as well. Locally the sales of CF road bikes have dropped off too dramatically at least one more bike shop has gone out of business and another is only open half time. The local steel bike specialist appears to be improving.


Odd conclusions you have. Lets come up with more rational conclusions.

1. How do you know carbon fiber bike sales have dropped off? Do you have sales data from all the bike shops? Observing the bikes you see on the road or trail is not too precise.

They have dropped off in 2016. Because global road bike sales fell
dramatically in 2016. No real way to know if steel bicycle sales are up
since since steel road bikes are now such a minuscule part of the market.

Declining high-end road bike sales are real problem for shops that
depended on those sales to survive.

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wrote
While trying to think of how to quantify this I still do not have a calculation but it would be very complex.

I have steel and aluminium (what you call aluminum) bikes that are very similar, and outitted very similarly. I have written here and elsewhere about the ways in which a steel bike is more comfortable and inspires more confidence when you're hanging it on the limit. It may be because I'm sensitive to microvibrations and generally interested in ergonomics, but in my opinion a good deal of the greater usability of steel bikes (compared to ali -- I don't have a plastic bike at all) will eventually be traced to steel, or the construction methods of steel bikes, or some other factor forced on steel bikes by the peculiarities of the material (tube thickness, wall dimension), resulting in better control of microvibrations. This suspicion of mine is reinforced by experience with wide low pressure bicycle tyres ("balloons"; "29ers") and softly-sprung, long travel but firmly damped automobile suspensions. The difference between a steel and an ali bike at the end of a long day in the saddle is too large not to have a physical explanation; it aint just the psychosomatics resident in pride of ownership. As for quantifying it, good luck.

Andre Jute
There's more to materials than Timoshenko ever dreamed of

Here's your whole original post. Nothing more from me in this post.

On Monday, November 14, 2016 at 4:09:35 PM UTC, wrote:
Frank - Doing another 50 mile ride yesterday I concentrated on the feel of the bike. Originally I removed all of the parts from my Colnago Dream Reflux (all al save fork) and put them on the Eddy Merckx Corsa Extra. On the Colnago you HAD to get out of the saddle on bumps whereas on the Eddy, which is a stiff steel bike, I simply didn't need to. The difference in the impact on your body is so marked that you simply cannot question it.

And because of this lower impact you have far less fear of cornering and hitting a bump in the middle of it. I find that descending very fast on twisty roads to be easy when I was always nervous on other materials.

Now there WERE flexy comfortable AL and CF bikes like the Vitus and my Look 247 but these appear to have gone out of date.

While trying to think of how to quantify this I still do not have a calculation but it would be very complex.

And it seems like more and more people are coming to these conclusions as well. Locally the sales of CF road bikes have dropped off too dramatically at least one more bike shop has gone out of business and another is only open half time. The local steel bike specialist appears to be improving.

Though I wonder how much has to do with CF bikes now looking so massive while a steel bike looks so simply in comparison.

On Monday, November 14, 2016 at 6:09:49 PM UTC-6, sms wrote:
On 11/14/2016 11:40 AM, wrote:
On Monday, November 14, 2016 at 10:09:35 AM UTC-6, wrote:

And it seems like more and more people are coming to these conclusions as well. Locally the sales of CF road bikes have dropped off too dramatically at least one more bike shop has gone out of business and another is only open half time. The local steel bike specialist appears to be improving.


Odd conclusions you have. Lets come up with more rational conclusions.

1. How do you know carbon fiber bike sales have dropped off? Do you have sales data from all the bike shops? Observing the bikes you see on the road or trail is not too precise.

They have dropped off in 2016. Because global road bike sales fell
dramatically in 2016. No real way to know if steel bicycle sales are up
since since steel road bikes are now such a minuscule part of the market.

Can you point to where you gathered this information? Are global road bike sales down?



Declining high-end road bike sales are real problem for shops that
depended on those sales to survive.


Proof that high end bike sales are down? Or are high end (carbon) still the same but overall bike sales are down? Thus the cheaper steel and aluminum bikes had a drop but carbon stayed the same.

On TV and the internet I see stories of car sales being at all time highs in 2016. Sales figures for Ford, GM, Fiat, VW, Toyota, Honda are frequently cited. But have never seen anything similar for bikes. Is there any public information for the revenues of Trek, Giant, Specialized?

On 11/14/2016 9:37 PM, wrote:
On Monday, November 14, 2016 at 6:09:49 PM UTC-6, sms wrote:
On 11/14/2016 11:40 AM, wrote:
On Monday, November 14, 2016 at 10:09:35 AM UTC-6, wrote:

And it seems like more and more people are coming to these conclusions as well. Locally the sales of CF road bikes have dropped off too dramatically at least one more bike shop has gone out of business and another is only open half time. The local steel bike specialist appears to be improving.


Odd conclusions you have. Lets come up with more rational conclusions.

1. How do you know carbon fiber bike sales have dropped off? Do you have sales data from all the bike shops? Observing the bikes you see on the road or trail is not too precise.

They have dropped off in 2016. Because global road bike sales fell
dramatically in 2016. No real way to know if steel bicycle sales are up
since since steel road bikes are now such a minuscule part of the market.

Can you point to where you gathered this information? Are global road bike sales down?

Bicycle Retailer and Industry News.

From June:
http://www.bicycleretailer.com/studies-reports/2016/06/20/wholesale-bikes-sales-down-6-percent-through-may-inventory-19-percent

From October:
http://www.bicycleretailer.com/international/2016/11/14/giants-global-sales-continue-slump-due-weak-markets-us-and-china

Yesterday:
http://www.bicycleretailer.com/international/2016/11/14/giants-global-sales-continue-slump-due-weak-markets-us-and-china

It's time for "the next big thing." Most people that wanted to move from
aluminum to carbon fiber road bikes have already done so, so it makes
sense that sales would be down since it's switched to the replacement
market rather than first time sales.

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On Monday, November 14, 2016 at 11:40:47 AM UTC-8, wrote:
On Monday, November 14, 2016 at 10:09:35 AM UTC-6, wrote:

And it seems like more and more people are coming to these conclusions as well. Locally the sales of CF road bikes have dropped off too dramatically at least one more bike shop has gone out of business and another is only open half time. The local steel bike specialist appears to be improving.


Odd conclusions you have. Lets come up with more rational conclusions.

1. How do you know carbon fiber bike sales have dropped off? Do you have sales data from all the bike shops? Observing the bikes you see on the road or trail is not too precise.

2. The out of business bike shop? Did it charge higher prices, provide poor service? The specific bikes it sells can have an effect. But other things are probably far more important. And every bike shop I have seen sell steel, aluminum, and carbon bikes at many price levels. Road, mountain, hybrid, kids. No bike shop has a very limited stock of bikes to sell. They sell everything.

3. Local steel specialist. Has he become more involved in the business? Has he increased advertising and promotions? Did he go from part time to full time dedicated? Does he have a good business plan while the bike shops do not? Lot of reasons this one guy appears to be improving and the others declining. Unrelated to the material he works with. And you did say "appears to be improving". What proof do you have that his sales are up?

I have popped in to four of the local high end bike shops and asked them how sales of road bikes are. And they ALL tell me that they're in the toilet. I have many bikes for sale on Craigslist and I haven't gotten a single call including trying to sell my brother's top of the line Giant 16 lber in a popular size for half retail in like new condition.

The shop that went out of business was both popular and in a good location in a rich neighborhood. Two other shops closed because the rents increased too much for the business they were doing and moved farther out into the countryside.

The steel bike shop has been there more than 50 years. The owner just died and his son took over. Nothing whatsoever has changed since the son is just getting used to working.

On Monday, November 14, 2016 at 6:30:24 PM UTC-8, Andre Jute wrote:
wrote
While trying to think of how to quantify this I still do not have a calculation but it would be very complex.

I have steel and aluminium (what you call aluminum) bikes that are very similar, and outitted very similarly. I have written here and elsewhere about the ways in which a steel bike is more comfortable and inspires more confidence when you're hanging it on the limit. It may be because I'm sensitive to microvibrations and generally interested in ergonomics, but in my opinion a good deal of the greater usability of steel bikes (compared to ali -- I don't have a plastic bike at all) will eventually be traced to steel, or the construction methods of steel bikes, or some other factor forced on steel bikes by the peculiarities of the material (tube thickness, wall dimension), resulting in better control of microvibrations. This suspicion of mine is reinforced by experience with wide low pressure bicycle tyres ("balloons"; "29ers") and softly-sprung, long travel but firmly damped automobile suspensions. The difference between a steel and an ali bike at the end of a long day in the saddle is too large not to have a physical explanation; it aint just the psychosomatics resident in pride of ownership. As for quantifying it, good luck.

Andre Jute
There's more to materials than Timoshenko ever dreamed of

Here's your whole original post. Nothing more from me in this post.

On Monday, November 14, 2016 at 4:09:35 PM UTC, wrote:
Frank - Doing another 50 mile ride yesterday I concentrated on the feel of the bike. Originally I removed all of the parts from my Colnago Dream Reflux (all al save fork) and put them on the Eddy Merckx Corsa Extra. On the Colnago you HAD to get out of the saddle on bumps whereas on the Eddy, which is a stiff steel bike, I simply didn't need to. The difference in the impact on your body is so marked that you simply cannot question it.

And because of this lower impact you have far less fear of cornering and hitting a bump in the middle of it. I find that descending very fast on twisty roads to be easy when I was always nervous on other materials.

Now there WERE flexy comfortable AL and CF bikes like the Vitus and my Look 247 but these appear to have gone out of date.

While trying to think of how to quantify this I still do not have a calculation but it would be very complex.

And it seems like more and more people are coming to these conclusions as well. Locally the sales of CF road bikes have dropped off too dramatically at least one more bike shop has gone out of business and another is only open half time. The local steel bike specialist appears to be improving.

Though I wonder how much has to do with CF bikes now looking so massive while a steel bike looks so simply in comparison.

You could be right but I feel that it's more a matter of control because steel doesn't have the same impact resistance of other materials. Or perhaps I should say it does not have the same impact resistance to the modern bikes that are super light and hence have to be made extremely stiff to avoid breaking the materials.

I have a Look KG247 that is a VERY soft riding carbon fiber bike with aluminum lugs. But it weighs equal to a light steel bike. Vitus and Alan aluminum bikes are slightly lighter than steel and ride very comfortably but do NOT lend confidence under heavy going.

But the new "light" bikes are just on the edge of strength and are extremely stiff riding. I really didn't like my C40 though it was so light that you could feel a definite difference in climbing speed. And my mostly CF Colnago Dream HP while a nice bike simply isn't as comfortable as my Eddy Merckx which weighs only two lbs more.

On Monday, November 14, 2016 at 9:37:17 PM UTC-8, wrote:
On Monday, November 14, 2016 at 6:09:49 PM UTC-6, sms wrote:
On 11/14/2016 11:40 AM, wrote:
On Monday, November 14, 2016 at 10:09:35 AM UTC-6, wrote:

And it seems like more and more people are coming to these conclusions as well. Locally the sales of CF road bikes have dropped off too dramatically at least one more bike shop has gone out of business and another is only open half time. The local steel bike specialist appears to be improving..


Odd conclusions you have. Lets come up with more rational conclusions.

1. How do you know carbon fiber bike sales have dropped off? Do you have sales data from all the bike shops? Observing the bikes you see on the road or trail is not too precise.

They have dropped off in 2016. Because global road bike sales fell
dramatically in 2016. No real way to know if steel bicycle sales are up
since since steel road bikes are now such a minuscule part of the market.

On Tuesday, November 15, 2016 at 10:11:03 AM UTC-8, sms wrote:
On 11/14/2016 9:37 PM, wrote:
On Monday, November 14, 2016 at 6:09:49 PM UTC-6, sms wrote:
On 11/14/2016 11:40 AM, wrote:
On Monday, November 14, 2016 at 10:09:35 AM UTC-6, wrote:

And it seems like more and more people are coming to these conclusions as well. Locally the sales of CF road bikes have dropped off too dramatically at least one more bike shop has gone out of business and another is only open half time. The local steel bike specialist appears to be improving..


Odd conclusions you have. Lets come up with more rational conclusions.

1. How do you know carbon fiber bike sales have dropped off? Do you have sales data from all the bike shops? Observing the bikes you see on the road or trail is not too precise.

They have dropped off in 2016. Because global road bike sales fell
dramatically in 2016. No real way to know if steel bicycle sales are up
since since steel road bikes are now such a minuscule part of the market.

Can you point to where you gathered this information? Are global road bike sales down?

Bicycle Retailer and Industry News.

From June:
http://www.bicycleretailer.com/studies-reports/2016/06/20/wholesale-bikes-sales-down-6-percent-through-may-inventory-19-percent

From October:
http://www.bicycleretailer.com/international/2016/11/14/giants-global-sales-continue-slump-due-weak-markets-us-and-china

Yesterday:
http://www.bicycleretailer.com/international/2016/11/14/giants-global-sales-continue-slump-due-weak-markets-us-and-china

It's time for "the next big thing." Most people that wanted to move from
aluminum to carbon fiber road bikes have already done so, so it makes
sense that sales would be down since it's switched to the replacement
market rather than first time sales.


And it has to be underscored that the top end bikes with top end components are twice as expensive as four short years ago. And there is absolutely no improvement in performance and significant reduction reliability. I am the one paying for my maintenance and I don't want to pay three times as much for components that wear at twice the speed.