Every man has a different future

On 1/2/2020 4:51 PM, Frank Krygowski wrote:
On 1/2/2020 3:04 PM, AMuzi wrote:
On 1/2/2020 1:25 PM, Tim McNamara wrote:
On Thu, 2 Jan 2020 09:31:38 -0800 (PST), jbeattie

wrote:
On Thursday, January 2, 2020 at 8:48:05 AM UTC-8, AMuzi
wrote:
And some are very different!

https://www.renehersecycles.com/blog/


I predict that I will be putting fat tires on my
commuter -- and then
taking them off after winter, as I do every year.

The past is often a good predictor of the future, at
least when it comes
to behavior.

Jan shows a lot of bikes with discs but says nothing
about the future
of disc brakes. Will there be a resurgence of
cantilever brakes on
the resurgent 650B silver rims with resurgent fat tires?

Jan is wrong about the 650B thing, but there will
continue to be an
increase in the 27.5" size which will take over the
fat-tired road bike
market. ;-) Whether the fat-tire road bike market is
here to stay is a
different question. If the Tour de France takes them
on, then yes.

Predictions like this generally exhibit either wishful
thinking or
marked pessimism. I've never met Jan but from his
writings he seems
like he's not a pessimist (unlike me). Thus I think he
missed a couple
of predictions:

Bike sales will decline as age and obesity shunt baby
boomers out of
cycling and into assisted living, wheelchairs, etc.
(except for most of
those who do keep riding regularly, and e-bike sales will
go up as Jan
predicts); and as millenials and whatever the crowd after
them is called
don't buy bikes or cars but instead use ridesharing apps
and renatal
scooters/bikes.

Urban areas like mine with make the mistake of trying to
build their way
out of homelessness with rental property (just like the
error of trying
to build their way out of traffic congestion in the
40s-70s), resulting
in densification of populations in cities with the attendant
deterioration in infrastructure, quality of life and
social behaviorn
(resulting in a resurgence in "law and order"
candidates). Addressing
root causes will continue to be overlooked as a solution
to problems in
favor of flashy hype-able bandaids. The result will be
that the urban
cycling experience will continue to get more unpleasant
and less safe,
despite trying to build half-baked cycling
infrastructure. People will
ride less, except a few nuts like us and those who have
little other
choice.

Hmm. Pessimist much? Yup!


Small technical point, in memory of the now-deceased Jimmy
Yearous who often said, "When I was a Marine, you couldn't
call anything my its real name. They had a special
language called Norman Clature."

650B = 584mm ISO
"27.5" = 584mm ISO

ISTR an article in _Bicycling_ magazine written by Fred
DeLong back in the 1970s: "A Defense of 650B Tires for
Tandem Touring."

Seems that by whatever name, it's been percolating in the
background for a long, long time.



Background? Peugeot tandems and VX40 were 650B then, along
with the classy end of French touring bikes. We offered an
aluminum-wheel 650B upgrade on Raleigh Sports- SuperChampion
58s on Michelins.

It was a specialty area but solidly established for those
bikes before 26-decimal arose from the grave to conquer the
earth after 1980.

--
Andrew Muzi
www.yellowjersey.org/
Open every day since 1 April, 1971

On Thursday, January 2, 2020 at 11:25:56 AM UTC-8, Tim McNamara wrote:
On Thu, 2 Jan 2020 09:31:38 -0800 (PST), jbeattie
wrote:
On Thursday, January 2, 2020 at 8:48:05 AM UTC-8, AMuzi wrote:
And some are very different!

https://www.renehersecycles.com/blog/


I predict that I will be putting fat tires on my commuter -- and then
taking them off after winter, as I do every year.

The past is often a good predictor of the future, at least when it comes
to behavior.

Jan shows a lot of bikes with discs but says nothing about the future
of disc brakes. Will there be a resurgence of cantilever brakes on
the resurgent 650B silver rims with resurgent fat tires?

Jan is wrong about the 650B thing, but there will continue to be an
increase in the 27.5" size which will take over the fat-tired road bike
market. ;-) Whether the fat-tire road bike market is here to stay is a
different question. If the Tour de France takes them on, then yes.

Predictions like this generally exhibit either wishful thinking or
marked pessimism. I've never met Jan but from his writings he seems
like he's not a pessimist (unlike me). Thus I think he missed a couple
of predictions:

Bike sales will decline as age and obesity shunt baby boomers out of
cycling and into assisted living, wheelchairs, etc. (except for most of
those who do keep riding regularly, and e-bike sales will go up as Jan
predicts); and as millenials and whatever the crowd after them is called
don't buy bikes or cars but instead use ridesharing apps and renatal
scooters/bikes.

Urban areas like mine with make the mistake of trying to build their way
out of homelessness with rental property (just like the error of trying
to build their way out of traffic congestion in the 40s-70s), resulting
in densification of populations in cities with the attendant
deterioration in infrastructure, quality of life and social behaviorn
(resulting in a resurgence in "law and order" candidates). Addressing
root causes will continue to be overlooked as a solution to problems in
favor of flashy hype-able bandaids. The result will be that the urban
cycling experience will continue to get more unpleasant and less safe,
despite trying to build half-baked cycling infrastructure. People will
ride less, except a few nuts like us and those who have little other
choice.

Hmm. Pessimist much? Yup!

My predictions? Disks will disappear. Their only advantage over a rim brake is on aluminum wheels which are disappearing. Carbon rims with the proper brake shoes don't seem to have the long "float" period in which you panic because the brakes aren't having any effects. What's more, the fork and rear triangle do not have to be especially reinforced to withstand that extra loads in the worst possible locations. The latest high end Trek isn't even available in a disk format. It has direct mount brakes that are faired into the fork head.

Wider tires give you a softer ride but increasing the width beyond 25-26 mm gives sharply diminishing returns where the wheel drag goes up much more rapidly than the increase in comfort. Whereas cyclocross bikes can use up to 32 mm tires with advantage, 28's work better everywhere but in mud. I just did a fast 22 mile ride. Hit every light wrong and turned around without making a coffee stop and so getting some rest before the return. Both the LeMond and the Basso are running 25 mm tires. The Basso I used has Vittoria Rubino Pro Endurance tires on it which are rated slow. The fastest average I had on the LeMond was 14.48 and today hitting every light wrong and tired from a hard ride on Tuesday I did 14.14 on the basso. There was a guy on the course that I caught up with. I was careful not to draft him but I eventually passed him and he could keep up with me but was very close for most of the way. But when I turned off onto a dirt path because the paved gate was under repair he was afraid of speed there.

While the baby boomers are rapidly disappearing they are more rapidly being replaced with Millennials and GenZer's. Around here I simply don't see many riders but at the centuries I am pretty surprised at the turnouts. And since they seem mostly to ride the Metrics it is obvious that they are fairly new. I would predict that bicycling is going to take another jump if a successful American racer gets back in the Grand Tours. I think that at present that bicycle sales aren't as good as they could be because of price and marketing.

Shimano Ultegra groupsets and Look or Time frames are the answer to that.

650b wheels SUCK unless you're 5 feet tall or smaller. And if you thought that 20 mm tires wore out fast try 25 mm tires on a 650b.

Manual levers aren't going anywhere. I will have something to say about that in another posting.

I am not sure about E-bikes. While it allows George Jetson to keep up with the Tuesday evening group ride isn't the entire purpose of riding to get the exercise? Perhaps commuters can be reasonably expected to grow though I have my doubts about that as well since improving (graphine) batteries will allow rapid recharges of about the same time as filling the tank and are predicted to have as much as 5 times the storage capacity of Lithium ion batteries meaning that they will reduce battery size and weight in cars making them far more practical than E-bikes.

On 1/2/2020 6:16 PM, AMuzi wrote:
On 1/2/2020 4:51 PM, Frank Krygowski wrote:
On 1/2/2020 3:04 PM, AMuzi wrote:
On 1/2/2020 1:25 PM, Tim McNamara wrote:
On Thu, 2 Jan 2020 09:31:38 -0800 (PST), jbeattie

wrote:
On Thursday, January 2, 2020 at 8:48:05 AM UTC-8, AMuzi
wrote:
And some are very different!

https://www.renehersecycles.com/blog/


I predict that I will be putting fat tires on my
commuter -- and then
taking them off after winter, as I do every year.

The past is often a good predictor of the future, at
least when it comes
to behavior.

Jan shows a lot of bikes with discs but says nothing
about the future
of disc brakes.ÂÂ* Will there be a resurgence of
cantilever brakes on
the resurgent 650B silver rims with resurgent fat tires?

Jan is wrong about the 650B thing, but there will
continue to be an
increase in the 27.5" size which will take over the
fat-tired road bike
market.ÂÂ* ;-)ÂÂ* Whether the fat-tire road bike market is
here to stay is a
different question.ÂÂ* If the Tour de France takes them
on, then yes.

Predictions like this generally exhibit either wishful
thinking or
marked pessimism.ÂÂ* I've never met Jan but from his
writings he seems
like he's not a pessimist (unlike me).ÂÂ* Thus I think he
missed a couple
of predictions:

Bike sales will decline as age and obesity shunt baby
boomers out of
cycling and into assisted living, wheelchairs, etc.
(except for most of
those who do keep riding regularly, and e-bike sales will
go up as Jan
predicts); and as millenials and whatever the crowd after
them is called
don't buy bikes or cars but instead use ridesharing apps
and renatal
scooters/bikes.

Urban areas like mine with make the mistake of trying to
build their way
out of homelessness with rental property (just like the
error of trying
to build their way out of traffic congestion in the
40s-70s), resulting
in densification of populations in cities with the attendant
deterioration in infrastructure, quality of life and
social behaviorn
(resulting in a resurgence in "law and order"
candidates).ÂÂ* Addressing
root causes will continue to be overlooked as a solution
to problems in
favor of flashy hype-able bandaids.ÂÂ* The result will be
that the urban
cycling experience will continue to get more unpleasant
and less safe,
despite trying to build half-baked cycling
infrastructure.ÂÂ* People will
ride less, except a few nuts like us and those who have
little other
choice.

Hmm.ÂÂ* Pessimist much?ÂÂ* Yup!


Small technical point, in memory of the now-deceased Jimmy
Yearous who often said, "When I was a Marine, you couldn't
call anything my its real name. They had a special
language called Norman Clature."

650B = 584mm ISO
"27.5" = 584mm ISO

ISTR an article in _Bicycling_ magazine written by Fred
DeLong back in the 1970s: "A Defense of 650B Tires for
Tandem Touring."

Seems that by whatever name, it's been percolating in the
background for a long, long time.



Background?Â* Peugeot tandems and VX40 were 650B then, along with the
classy end of French touring bikes. We offered an aluminum-wheel 650B
upgrade on Raleigh Sports- SuperChampion 58s on Michelins.

It was a specialty area but solidly established for those bikes before
26-decimal arose from the grave to conquer the earth after 1980.

As I recall, 26" popularity is/was a quirk of history, not a design
decision. It's what happened to be on the 1950s kids' bikes that were
accidental ancestors of mountain bikes.

ISTM that a lot of bike fashion is no more logical than a lot of women's
shoe fashion.

--
- Frank Krygowski

On 02/01/2020 20.56, jbeattie wrote:

snip

My prediction is that $500 USD three-bolt triple cranks are the next
big thing.
https://www.renehersecycles.com/shop...-triple-crank/
Those and $300 USD handlebar bags with a plastic top for maps and
"cue sheet."
https://www.renehersecycles.com/shop...-side-pockets/

I've purchased the exclusive rights to Cambio Corsa from Campagnolo,
which is the one-true shifting system. https://tinyurl.com/tmcmuqy It
is going to be huge again. No small parts to break. Even people with
small hands (and long arms) find it easy to use. No broken cables or
wires. You'll have to get a new frame or at least those little
cog-teeth drop-outs installed, but it is the last bike you'll ever
have to own.

boggle Wtf is that!?

On 1/2/2020 8:30 PM, Frank Krygowski wrote:
On 1/2/2020 6:16 PM, AMuzi wrote:
On 1/2/2020 4:51 PM, Frank Krygowski wrote:
On 1/2/2020 3:04 PM, AMuzi wrote:
On 1/2/2020 1:25 PM, Tim McNamara wrote:
On Thu, 2 Jan 2020 09:31:38 -0800 (PST), jbeattie

wrote:
On Thursday, January 2, 2020 at 8:48:05 AM UTC-8, AMuzi
wrote:
And some are very different!

https://www.renehersecycles.com/blog/


I predict that I will be putting fat tires on my
commuter -- and then
taking them off after winter, as I do every year.

The past is often a good predictor of the future, at
least when it comes
to behavior.

Jan shows a lot of bikes with discs but says nothing
about the future
of disc brakes. Will there be a resurgence of
cantilever brakes on
the resurgent 650B silver rims with resurgent fat tires?

Jan is wrong about the 650B thing, but there will
continue to be an
increase in the 27.5" size which will take over the
fat-tired road bike
market. ;-) Whether the fat-tire road bike
market is
here to stay is a
different question. If the Tour de France takes them
on, then yes.

Predictions like this generally exhibit either wishful
thinking or
marked pessimism. I've never met Jan but from his
writings he seems
like he's not a pessimist (unlike me). Thus I think he
missed a couple
of predictions:

Bike sales will decline as age and obesity shunt baby
boomers out of
cycling and into assisted living, wheelchairs, etc.
(except for most of
those who do keep riding regularly, and e-bike sales will
go up as Jan
predicts); and as millenials and whatever the crowd after
them is called
don't buy bikes or cars but instead use ridesharing apps
and renatal
scooters/bikes.

Urban areas like mine with make the mistake of trying to
build their way
out of homelessness with rental property (just like the
error of trying
to build their way out of traffic congestion in the
40s-70s), resulting
in densification of populations in cities with the
attendant
deterioration in infrastructure, quality of life and
social behaviorn
(resulting in a resurgence in "law and order"
candidates). Addressing
root causes will continue to be overlooked as a solution
to problems in
favor of flashy hype-able bandaids. The result will be
that the urban
cycling experience will continue to get more unpleasant
and less safe,
despite trying to build half-baked cycling
infrastructure. People will
ride less, except a few nuts like us and those who have
little other
choice.

Hmm. Pessimist much? Yup!


Small technical point, in memory of the now-deceased Jimmy
Yearous who often said, "When I was a Marine, you couldn't
call anything my its real name. They had a special
language called Norman Clature."

650B = 584mm ISO
"27.5" = 584mm ISO

ISTR an article in _Bicycling_ magazine written by Fred
DeLong back in the 1970s: "A Defense of 650B Tires for
Tandem Touring."

Seems that by whatever name, it's been percolating in the
background for a long, long time.



Background? Peugeot tandems and VX40 were 650B then,
along with the classy end of French touring bikes. We
offered an aluminum-wheel 650B upgrade on Raleigh Sports-
SuperChampion 58s on Michelins.

It was a specialty area but solidly established for those
bikes before 26-decimal arose from the grave to conquer
the earth after 1980.

As I recall, 26" popularity is/was a quirk of history, not a
design decision. It's what happened to be on the 1950s kids'
bikes that were accidental ancestors of mountain bikes.

ISTM that a lot of bike fashion is no more logical than a
lot of women's shoe fashion.


Maybe.
The 26-decimal rims made good use of the extreme tire width
capability of that rim design. Nowadays almost all rims are
hook-edged but at the time American style decimal rims were
almost unique.

--
Andrew Muzi
www.yellowjersey.org/
Open every day since 1 April, 1971

On 1/3/2020 4:42 AM, Tosspot wrote:
On 02/01/2020 20.56, jbeattie wrote:

snip

My prediction is that $500 USD three-bolt triple cranks
are the next
big thing.
https://www.renehersecycles.com/shop...-triple-crank/

Those and $300 USD handlebar bags with a plastic top for
maps and
"cue sheet."
https://www.renehersecycles.com/shop...-side-pockets/


I've purchased the exclusive rights to Cambio Corsa from
Campagnolo,
which is the one-true shifting system.
https://tinyurl.com/tmcmuqy It
is going to be huge again. No small parts to break. Even
people with
small hands (and long arms) find it easy to use. No broken
cables or
wires. You'll have to get a new frame or at least those
little
cog-teeth drop-outs installed, but it is the last bike
you'll ever
have to own.

boggle Wtf is that!?

It's 3 or 4 one-speed gears basically with a remote axle QR
and a remote forklike chain slider. Shifting is, uh, artful.
https://www.steel-vintage.com/blog/2...paris-roubaix/

Jay mentioned some of the clever aspects but pictures in
link above may be helpful.

--
Andrew Muzi
www.yellowjersey.org/
Open every day since 1 April, 1971

On Friday, January 3, 2020 at 5:54:19 AM UTC-8, AMuzi wrote:
On 1/3/2020 4:42 AM, Tosspot wrote:
On 02/01/2020 20.56, jbeattie wrote:

snip

My prediction is that $500 USD three-bolt triple cranks
are the next
big thing.
https://www.renehersecycles.com/shop...-triple-crank/

Those and $300 USD handlebar bags with a plastic top for
maps and
"cue sheet."
https://www.renehersecycles.com/shop...-side-pockets/


I've purchased the exclusive rights to Cambio Corsa from
Campagnolo,
which is the one-true shifting system.
https://tinyurl.com/tmcmuqy It
is going to be huge again. No small parts to break. Even
people with
small hands (and long arms) find it easy to use. No broken
cables or
wires. You'll have to get a new frame or at least those
little
cog-teeth drop-outs installed, but it is the last bike
you'll ever
have to own.

boggle Wtf is that!?

It's 3 or 4 one-speed gears basically with a remote axle QR
and a remote forklike chain slider. Shifting is, uh, artful.
https://www.steel-vintage.com/blog/2...paris-roubaix/

Jay mentioned some of the clever aspects but pictures in
link above may be helpful.

I'm totally outraged by that one post on the linked page: "The reason these Campagnolo gears are quite uncommon is that people threw them away as soon as they could get Gran Sports." Pfff. Another upgrade-crazy, narcissistic wannabe racer who has to have the supposed "latest and greatest" to impress his friends. I was on a group ride with my Cambio Corsa the other day and shifted with no problems while my friends with STI and Di2 were struggling for gears. I laughed in their general direction.

-- Jay Beattie.

On Friday, 3 January 2020 05:42:03 UTC-5, Tosspot wrote:
On 02/01/2020 20.56, jbeattie wrote:

snip

My prediction is that $500 USD three-bolt triple cranks are the next
big thing.
https://www.renehersecycles.com/shop...-triple-crank/
Those and $300 USD handlebar bags with a plastic top for maps and
"cue sheet."
https://www.renehersecycles.com/shop...-side-pockets/

I've purchased the exclusive rights to Cambio Corsa from Campagnolo,
which is the one-true shifting system. https://tinyurl.com/tmcmuqy It
is going to be huge again. No small parts to break. Even people with
small hands (and long arms) find it easy to use. No broken cables or
wires. You'll have to get a new frame or at least those little
cog-teeth drop-outs installed, but it is the last bike you'll ever
have to own.

boggle Wtf is that!?

Here are videos showing it in use.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A7rjurYxcNI

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AIZhSNdO_Zo

Cheers

On 1/3/2020 9:26 AM, jbeattie wrote:
On Friday, January 3, 2020 at 5:54:19 AM UTC-8, AMuzi wrote:
On 1/3/2020 4:42 AM, Tosspot wrote:
On 02/01/2020 20.56, jbeattie wrote:

snip

My prediction is that $500 USD three-bolt triple cranks
are the next
big thing.
https://www.renehersecycles.com/shop...-triple-crank/

Those and $300 USD handlebar bags with a plastic top for
maps and
"cue sheet."
https://www.renehersecycles.com/shop...-side-pockets/


I've purchased the exclusive rights to Cambio Corsa from
Campagnolo,
which is the one-true shifting system.
https://tinyurl.com/tmcmuqy It
is going to be huge again. No small parts to break. Even
people with
small hands (and long arms) find it easy to use. No broken
cables or
wires. You'll have to get a new frame or at least those
little
cog-teeth drop-outs installed, but it is the last bike
you'll ever
have to own.

boggle Wtf is that!?

It's 3 or 4 one-speed gears basically with a remote axle QR
and a remote forklike chain slider. Shifting is, uh, artful.
https://www.steel-vintage.com/blog/2...paris-roubaix/

Jay mentioned some of the clever aspects but pictures in
link above may be helpful.

I'm totally outraged by that one post on the linked page: "The reason these Campagnolo gears are quite uncommon is that people threw them away as soon as they could get Gran Sports." Pfff. Another upgrade-crazy, narcissistic wannabe racer who has to have the supposed "latest and greatest" to impress his friends. I was on a group ride with my Cambio Corsa the other day and shifted with no problems while my friends with STI and Di2 were struggling for gears. I laughed in their general direction.

-- Jay Beattie.

Impressive.
My intellectual abilities are suited to my fixie, which is
always in the right gear.

--
Andrew Muzi
www.yellowjersey.org/
Open every day since 1 April, 1971

On Thu, 2 Jan 2020 11:39:30 -0800 (PST), Sir Ridesalot
wrote:

As battery technology and run time improves I do think that E-bikes
will gain in popularity especially if the price drops substantially
for a quality E-bike, battery and replacement battery.

That trend is already happening in Minneapolis. I see e-bikes daily
now, and some of them are pretty good looking machines compared to the
first couple of generations. I think we'll continue to see more of that
over the next decade for the reasons you cite. They might even replace
internal combustion scooters to an extent.