Response to Le Monde editorial -- analysis of rising speeds

In article VXwZa.114693$Ho3.13979@sccrnsc03,
"Ken Papai" wrote:


It was a boring place to put a time trial.

Hindsight is 20-20.

Many riders who train in the region (and the commentators familiar with
it, Guimard, for example) announced well in advance that it was a flat,
not particularly interesting road. In addition, there was a 9/10 chance
that the wind would be 3/4 back. If the ITT had been 10km longer or run
from Nantes to Pornic instead, it would have been a different story.

Contrast that with the Gaillac - Cap Decouverte ITT for which all the
comments from riders and ex-riders (like Jalabert) who know the road
were "it may not be a mountain ITT, but it is a lot tougher than people
believe."


jyh.

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In article VXwZa.114693$Ho3.13979@sccrnsc03,
"Ken Papai" wrote:

At the least radio communucation should not be allowed in a 'race of
truth'. Cycling (doped or not) has always been about pushing the limits
within each rider and not just riding defensively. I would like to see
the radio taken out altogether but TTs are a start.

Exactly. And riders should wear blinders too.
And all these fancy, new pedal systems and carbon forks
should be taken away as well.

You cannot compare the two. The gains afforded by the new pedal systems
and carbon forks are basically the same for everyone. Radio
communications, on the other hand, reduces the gap between "smart"
riders (say, Anquetil, Raas, Kneteman in the past) and the others.
I don't if this is another USA vs. Europe thing, Americans being more
familiar with "over-coached" sports (basketball, football, baseball),
compared to soccer, which is the main sport reference in Europe.

I would compare the effect of radio communication in cycling to that of
coaching in tennis for the Davis Cup. There are tennis players whose
Davis Cup results are way better than their results on the circuit,
mostly because they get the team coach to talk to them each time they
change sides.

jyh.

--
================================================== ===================
jean-yves herve' /\
Department of Computer Science \/ e-mail --
and Statistics /\
University of Rhode Island \/ Tel. -- (401) 874-4400
Kingston, RI 02881-0816 /\ Fax. -- (401) 874-4617
USA \/
================================================== ===================

It's not hindsite. It's common knowledge for the area and should have
been for the Tour.

Lack of foresite if anything. (rain excepted)

As far as the radio's, it's your sport, for entertainment purposes the
racing is better when it is not so defensive as constant communication
allows. The days of seeing Roche carted away by ambulance and Fignon
collapsing are over.

There is as much in art and panache as there is in winning.

I don't see how you can make any conclusions from 2 variables when there
are many more.

wind road surface equipment (weight and efficiency) percentage/number of
riders remaining grade weather other (rain, extreme cold heat)
athleticism progression (some should be expected without doping) rest
day placement illness or flu tactics/attacks/breaks



It was funny that the original argument was proposed as science and
challenged the statistically impaired.

(it was good work for the 2 variables examined)

Sad that Le Monde chooses to use bad science to back up a hypothesis
when there is plenty of circumstantial and actual knowledge in
exisitence.


Chung, I like the book, it read a lot better than 'Dynamic Hedging'.

We are all prone to randomness, that is the point of the book. I don't
pretend to be a pure scientist.

What is a great book then?



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AMG you did good work but it so hard to know. It would seem to focus on
records set in velodromes on similar equipment at similar altitudes
would be more conclusive. Even then we know Antequile refused testing,
Merck is tainted, I haven't heard anything about Ritter, Moser (conconi,
enough said), seems like Boardman's is legit. (This only concerns the
athlete's hour) Obree, Indurain and Rominger are sidenotes. The pursuit
is another place to look especially qualifying times.

Maybe Sundquist has a large data set.


Thanks a lot for the comments and the interest, never_doped. Who is
Sundquist?

-- AMG

never_doped wrote:
Chung, I like the book, it read a lot better than 'Dynamic Hedging'.

Good god, you read *two* of Taleb's books?

What is a great book then?

I'm sort of fond of "The Scarlet Letter" but "Moby Dick" isn't bad,
either. I think Taleb would agree with me, at least in principle.

Or maybe the rising tour speeds is due to riders' desperation to get
some or any recognition so they can get jobs. With sponsorship
dwindling and teams folding, the riders have to get up the road to get
their behinds on camera. In order to make a break, the attacks start
and continue for the first hour of the stage until the right combo
goes. This results in no 'piano' stages.
Still, 25mph average is pretty ****ing amazing for a 3 week race. I'd
need some serious drugs to survive that, but that's just me.

"warren" wrote in message
...
In article , never_doped
wrote:

Kurgan, do you have any idea how moronic you look when you use 'dumbass'
to respond to every post that doesn't conform to your pea-sized brain?

Save it up for emphasis.

Maybe you'll get some respect as someone with an actual valid point and
not by being as predictable as a dog licking himself.

I hope Kurgan Grirgion is a rare name in Australia because if by chance
I meet someone with that name while I'm there I'm going to punch them in
the face as soon as introduced. I'll take my chances that I hit the
right one.

Uh, "KG" is a psuedonym for Henry Chang who lives in SoCal. By using a
fake name it will make it harder for people he knows now, or in the
future to find all the stuff he's been saying in RBR.


Dumbass -

That's not why I use this name.

"never_doped" wrote in message
...

I hope Kurgan Grirgion is a rare name in Australia because if by chance
I meet someone with that name while I'm there I'm going to punch them in
the face as soon as introduced. I'll take my chances that I hit the
right one.




Goddamm, what an Idiot.