Eschew Coolness in Favor of Intelligence. Use a High Power DaytimeFront Flashing Light.

On Monday, September 23, 2013 12:14:42 PM UTC-4, Dan O wrote, on his perceived benefits of daytime flashing headlights:

Yes, this is anecdotal. The quantification is a gut sense of mine.
But it seems to me that if this were not really happening, I would
not have this gut sense.

I'd think anyone who had read much on psychology would never make such a statement.

People have been shown to misjudge the benefits of hundreds of things they've purchased or tested. The phenomenon has even been used as a schtick on TV, where the man on the street has raved about "new and improved" products that were old and measurably worse. It's been demonstrated by people raving over the "more expensive" wine, when both wines were exactly the same. People have been shown to misjudge computer systems speeds, bike tire rolling resistances, lucky socks efficacy and much else.

And I wonder, how can a person demonstrate a reduction in driver pullouts, unless that person experiences a huge number of driver pullouts? I seem to get less than one such incident every ten years, with only one (in 1977) requiring an emergency maneuver, and none ever resulting in crashes. How could I demonstrate that a flashing headlight reduced those incidents?

I'd say that if you're getting enough to cause you to buy a flashing daytime light, there might well be something you need to learn about road positioning.

- Frank Krygowski

On Monday, September 23, 2013 12:13:30 PM UTC-7, Frank Krygowski wrote:
On Monday, September 23, 2013 12:14:42 PM UTC-4, Dan O wrote, on his perceived benefits of daytime flashing headlights:

Yes, this is anecdotal. The quantification is a gut sense of mine.
But it seems to me that if this were not really happening, I would
not have this gut sense.

I'd think anyone who had read much on psychology would never make such a statement.

People have been shown to misjudge the benefits of hundreds of things they've purchased or tested. The phenomenon has even been used as a schtick on TV, where the man on the street has raved about "new and improved" products that were old and measurably worse. It's been demonstrated by people raving over the "more expensive" wine, when both wines were exactly the same. People have been shown to misjudge computer systems speeds, bike tire rolling resistances, lucky socks efficacy and much else.


I said, and you snipped, "I don't have a stake in the efficacy of my
flashing light", and "I don't even really like the idea of flashing
lights".

(Do you really think you can disprove lucky socks?)

Look, it's *my* gut sense. I identified it as such, and gave what I
think is the reasoning for it. I think I'm in a better position to
evaluate it's sources and influences. Do you have any evidence that
contradicts or casts doubt on my gut sense?

I don't know about you, but the way I ride around any traffic involves
constant rapid assessment and analysis of what I expect to develop.
It's very difficult to explain beyond that (what was that quote from
yesterday - "you can't do it if you don't know how to do it"?).
Suffice it to say that it involves a *****load* of data in real time.

So as I ride into something, I am accessing a dynamic array of certain
probable expectations. When I notice a pattern of results deviating
from my expectations, I have to wonder why (which is how you learn to
make better predictions). When it happens that this unexpected thing
is drivers becoming momentarily inactive like the proverbial deer in
the headlights, it dawns on me - oh, they must have fixated on my
flashing headlight (which I forget is even on).

I'll ask again: Are you suggesting that a flashing headlight does not
reduce incidence of failure to yield?


And I wonder, how can a person demonstrate a reduction in driver pullouts, unless that person experiences a huge number of driver pullouts? I seem to get less than one such incident every ten years, with only one (in 1977) requiring an emergency maneuver, and none ever resulting in crashes. How could I demonstrate that a flashing headlight reduced those incidents?


Why would I care? (Other than the fact that you're yet again arguing
about something which you apparently have no personal experience with.)
Nor am I trying to demonstrate anything - just expressing my thoughts.

(Seriously? You go a decade at a time without experiencing a single
failure to yield??)


I'd say that if you're getting enough to cause you to buy a flashing daytime light, there might well be something you need to learn about road positioning.


You'd say that.

On 9/23/2013 11:59 AM, Jay Beattie wrote:
On Monday, September 23, 2013 10:06:33 AM UTC-7, sms wrote:
On 9/23/2013 9:14 AM, Dan O wrote:



Now, when I am running my headlight in flashing mode - either because

of limited visibility and/or highly conflicting traffic - I notice

that many of those developing situations where I wonder all that stuff

above and *expect* with some degree of probability that the driver will

not yield as perhaps they should - I notice that what seems like a lot

of times I am surprised that they seem to hold up their actions as if

they are evaluating me.



Exactly.



You can almost see the gears turning in the driver's head when you have

a flashing front light in the dayime: "What is that?" "How far away is

that?" "I'd better wait." Versus, "oh, a bicycle, I ride my bicycle

really slow so that bicycle must be coming up slowly so I have plenty of

time to turn."



I recall someone mentioning that with a flashing light it's more

difficult to determine how far away a bicycle (or emergency vehicle is).

But they mentioned it as if it was a bad thing, when in fact that

uncertainty is probably what is giving drivers pause when they see the

flashing light.



The other amusing thing I've noticed on multiple occasions is that when

I'm stopped at a red light, waiting to straight across, and the opposing

vehicle is turning left. If I have the flashing light on then they'll

suddenly turn on their turn signal, as if it's only required when

there's someone coming the other way. Without the flashing light,

there's often no acknowledgement that I'm there.

By the way, where is the research about daytime flashers? Not being contentious, I just don't want to have to go searching for it on my lunch break.

-- Jay Beattie.


You have to pay to play. But the abstract of one such study states: "For
large signal contrasts (nighttime) the conspicuity of steady and
flashing signals is approximately equal. For small contrasts (daytime)
the conspicuity of flashing signals is considerably greater. These
results suggest that flashing rather than steady signals be used for
warning purposes.

(parenthesis mine)

http://www.opticsinfobase.org/josa/abstract.cfm?id=50654

Also see
http://www.faa.gov/air_traffic/publications/atpubs/aim/aim0202.html.

There are other paid articles as well.

As I stated earlier, if you're looking for a bicycle-specific study on
the effectiveness of flashing lights then there's nothing. You have to
extrapolate from studies of daytime conspicuity of flashing lights in
other situations.

Also there are other studies that examined only night time conspicuity
between steady and solid lights and of course those showed a benefit for
flashing.

On Monday, 23 September 2013 20:13:30 UTC+1, Frank Krygowski wrote:
On Monday, September 23, 2013 12:14:42 PM UTC-4, Dan O wrote, on his perceived benefits of daytime flashing headlights:



Yes, this is anecdotal. The quantification is a gut sense of mine.

But it seems to me that if this were not really happening, I would

not have this gut sense.



I'd think anyone who had read much on psychology would never make such a statement.



People have been shown to misjudge the benefits

Ah, there's that word, you mean fall for the trick.

of hundreds of things they've purchased or tested. The phenomenon has even been used as a schtick on TV, where the man on the street has raved about "new and improved" products that were old and measurably worse. It's been demonstrated by people raving over the "more expensive" wine, when both wines were exactly the same. People have been shown to misjudge computer systems speeds, bike tire rolling resistances, lucky socks efficacy and much else.


It's not luck why the dirty socks work and of course it's not the detergent, so um what's left?




And I wonder, how can a person demonstrate

by acting appropriately?

a reduction in driver pullouts,

oo-er Frankie

unless that person experiences a huge number of driver pullouts?

May I be permitted to suggest you tie your braces round your backside?

I seem to get less than one such incident every ten years,

B.O ?

with only one (in 1977) requiring an emergency maneuver,

So your daughter is 36?

and none ever resulting in crashes.

YA mean, orgasm?

How could I demonstrate that a flashing headlight reduced those incidents?


By acting appropriately?



I'd say that if you're getting enough to cause you to buy a flashing daytime light, there might well be something you need to learn about road positioning.


who cares as long as it brings in the right attention?

On Monday, 23 September 2013 21:36:12 UTC+1, sms wrote:



Also there are other studies that examined only night time conspicuity

between steady and solid lights and of course those showed a benefit for

flashing.

I believe there is a dependency for safety involved and a steady light is normally safer at night. For brightly lit roads there may be advantage in conspicuity and safety in using a flashing light, just as there is in daylight only moreso.

On Monday, 23 September 2013 21:35:13 UTC+1, Dan O wrote:
On Monday, September 23, 2013 12:13:30 PM UTC-7, Frank Krygowski wrote:

On Monday, September 23, 2013 12:14:42 PM UTC-4, Dan O wrote, on his perceived benefits of daytime flashing headlights:



Yes, this is anecdotal. The quantification is a gut sense of mine.

But it seems to me that if this were not really happening, I would

not have this gut sense.



I'd think anyone who had read much on psychology would never make such a statement.



People have been shown to misjudge the benefits of hundreds of things they've purchased or tested. The phenomenon has even been used as a schtick on TV, where the man on the street has raved about "new and improved" products that were old and measurably worse. It's been demonstrated by people raving over the "more expensive" wine, when both wines were exactly the same. People have been shown to misjudge computer systems speeds, bike tire rolling resistances, lucky socks efficacy and much else.





I said, and you snipped, "I don't have a stake in the efficacy of my

flashing light", and "I don't even really like the idea of flashing

lights".



(Do you really think you can disprove lucky socks?)



Look, it's *my* gut sense. I identified it as such, and gave what I

think is the reasoning for it. I think I'm in a better position to

evaluate it's sources and influences. Do you have any evidence that

contradicts or casts doubt on my gut sense?



7/10 owners said their cats preferred it. Did you know that 7/10 humans "in USA" are allergic to gluten? Not a lot of people know that, gluten is sneaky, especially when it is slowly "introduced" so as not to provoke the response in infants. I guess they stuck it in them little bottles of "baby-food".




I don't know about you, but the way I ride around any traffic involves

constant rapid assessment and analysis of what I expect to develop.

It's very difficult to explain beyond that (what was that quote from

yesterday - "you can't do it if you don't know how to do it"?).

Suffice it to say that it involves a *****load* of data in real time.



So as I ride into something, I am accessing a dynamic array of certain

probable expectations. When I notice a pattern of results deviating

from my expectations, I have to wonder why (which is how you learn to

make better predictions). When it happens that this unexpected thing

is drivers becoming momentarily inactive like the proverbial deer in

the headlights, it dawns on me - oh, they must have fixated on my

flashing headlight (which I forget is even on).



I'll ask again: Are you suggesting that a flashing headlight does not

reduce incidence of failure to yield?





And I wonder, how can a person demonstrate a reduction in driver pullouts, unless that person experiences a huge number of driver pullouts? I seem to get less than one such incident every ten years, with only one (in 1977) requiring an emergency maneuver, and none ever resulting in crashes. How could I demonstrate that a flashing headlight reduced those incidents?





Why would I care? (Other than the fact that you're yet again arguing

about something which you apparently have no personal experience with.)

Nor am I trying to demonstrate anything - just expressing my thoughts.



(Seriously? You go a decade at a time without experiencing a single

failure to yield??)





I'd say that if you're getting enough to cause you to buy a flashing daytime light, there might well be something you need to learn about road positioning.





You'd say that.

On Mon, 23 Sep 2013 13:36:12 -0700, sms
wrote:

On 9/23/2013 11:59 AM, Jay Beattie wrote:
On Monday, September 23, 2013 10:06:33 AM UTC-7, sms wrote:
On 9/23/2013 9:14 AM, Dan O wrote:



Now, when I am running my headlight in flashing mode - either because

of limited visibility and/or highly conflicting traffic - I notice

that many of those developing situations where I wonder all that stuff

above and *expect* with some degree of probability that the driver will

not yield as perhaps they should - I notice that what seems like a lot

of times I am surprised that they seem to hold up their actions as if

they are evaluating me.



Exactly.



You can almost see the gears turning in the driver's head when you have

a flashing front light in the dayime: "What is that?" "How far away is

that?" "I'd better wait." Versus, "oh, a bicycle, I ride my bicycle

really slow so that bicycle must be coming up slowly so I have plenty of

time to turn."



I recall someone mentioning that with a flashing light it's more

difficult to determine how far away a bicycle (or emergency vehicle is).

But they mentioned it as if it was a bad thing, when in fact that

uncertainty is probably what is giving drivers pause when they see the

flashing light.



The other amusing thing I've noticed on multiple occasions is that when

I'm stopped at a red light, waiting to straight across, and the opposing

vehicle is turning left. If I have the flashing light on then they'll

suddenly turn on their turn signal, as if it's only required when

there's someone coming the other way. Without the flashing light,

there's often no acknowledgement that I'm there.

By the way, where is the research about daytime flashers? Not being contentious, I just don't want to have to go searching for it on my lunch break.

-- Jay Beattie.


You have to pay to play. But the abstract of one such study states: "For
large signal contrasts (nighttime) the conspicuity of steady and
flashing signals is approximately equal. For small contrasts (daytime)
the conspicuity of flashing signals is considerably greater. These
results suggest that flashing rather than steady signals be used for
warning purposes.

(parenthesis mine)

http://www.opticsinfobase.org/josa/abstract.cfm?id=50654

Also see
http://www.faa.gov/air_traffic/publications/atpubs/aim/aim0202.html.

There are other paid articles as well.

As I stated earlier, if you're looking for a bicycle-specific study on
the effectiveness of flashing lights then there's nothing. You have to
extrapolate from studies of daytime conspicuity of flashing lights in
other situations.

Also there are other studies that examined only night time conspicuity
between steady and solid lights and of course those showed a benefit for
flashing.

Are you serious? Even with a casual search I turned up at least 20
definitive studies, all available. A search for "Effectiveness of
daylight lights for motorcycles" turned up some 12,000 hits.
--
Cheers,

John B.

On Mon, 23 Sep 2013 17:16:08 +0100, Phil W Lee
wrote:

John B. considered Mon, 23 Sep 2013 19:11:38
+0700 the perfect time to write:

On Sun, 22 Sep 2013 22:24:35 -0700, Joe Riel wrote:

Frank Krygowski writes:

On Sunday, September 22, 2013 12:45:51 PM UTC-4, Dan wrote:
sms writes:


Of course I can legitimately believe it because there's a mountain of
evidence that says that it's true.

A "mountain of evidence" implies that "quantifiable" thing that Frank
seems to think is essential to validity. I haven't seen it.

But I don't really care, either. I don't need it or your assertion.
I can even sort of quantify the effect from my own observation and
experience, but prefer to experience life in a more organic way.
That is, not to try and model everything numerically. The world
is a neverending flow of chaotic unquantifiables, and therein lies
its glory and beauty. There's order, and at the same time ultimate
and absolute chaos. I do not wish to make my life an engineering
exercise. I can still intelligently observe effects, reason cause,
and bring that data with me into the cycle of continuous learning -
development of understanding, meaningful *information* - in pursuit
of the unachievable mastery of the art of living.

Scharf's "mountain of evidence" about the tremendous benefit of (and consequent necessity of) daytime flashing headlights simply doesn't exist. It's in his own head.

I did find a study indicating that daytime running lights, on cars,
reduce the accident rate at my latitude (+32.7) by approximately 5%.

Certainly. It seems to have reduced motorcycle accidents here by some
small percentage. But.... I suggest that this wasn't with a 700 lumen
light on either the cars or the motorcycles.

DRLs are designed to diffuse the light (if they are designed at all,
that is), rather than concentrate it in a beam.

As I mentioned in another post, the GB "AA" states that DRLs must be
brighter then night time lights and must be turned off after dark as
they will be too bright.
--
Cheers,

John B.

On Monday, September 23, 2013 12:13:29 PM UTC-4, Phil W Lee wrote:
sms considered Mon, 23 Sep 2013 03:09:48

-0700 the perfect time to write:



On 9/22/2013 10:24 PM, Joe Riel wrote:



I did find a study indicating that daytime running lights, on cars,

reduce the accident rate at my latitude (+32.7) by approximately 5%.



DRLs on cars have not been effective in the U.S. in reducing fatality

rates, other than for pedestrians (28%). They have slightly reduced the

number of non-fatal crashes (8.76%-12.4%, depending on the type of DRL,

in the most recent study).



A flashing light make it more difficult to judge distance. When it comes

to "encouraging" vehicles to not do stupid things in front of bicycles,

this is actually an advantage, for obvious reasons.



If you think that preventing the drivers of those vehicles from

judging your distance (and therefore speed, as that is derived from

change of distance over time) is an advantage, the marbles really have

rolled all the way out.



Unless of course you know perfectly well that you are lying, but the

financial incentive is too tempting.

I think SMShas hit his head at least once too often and is not right in the head any more. That's the only logical reason I can come up with that'd explain his persistance in spouting pure and provable falsehoods even after being corrected by others who do know what they're talking about.

His lies would be humourous except that some poor soul might read them, try them, and get nailed be a motor vehicle when they don't work as advertised..

Cheers

On Monday, September 23, 2013 4:36:12 PM UTC-4, sms wrote:
On 9/23/2013 11:59 AM, Jay Beattie wrote:

On Monday, September 23, 2013 10:06:33 AM UTC-7, sms wrote:

On 9/23/2013 9:14 AM, Dan O wrote:







Now, when I am running my headlight in flashing mode - either because



of limited visibility and/or highly conflicting traffic - I notice



that many of those developing situations where I wonder all that stuff



above and *expect* with some degree of probability that the driver will



not yield as perhaps they should - I notice that what seems like a lot



of times I am surprised that they seem to hold up their actions as if



they are evaluating me.







Exactly.







You can almost see the gears turning in the driver's head when you have



a flashing front light in the dayime: "What is that?" "How far away is



that?" "I'd better wait." Versus, "oh, a bicycle, I ride my bicycle



really slow so that bicycle must be coming up slowly so I have plenty of



time to turn."







I recall someone mentioning that with a flashing light it's more



difficult to determine how far away a bicycle (or emergency vehicle is).



But they mentioned it as if it was a bad thing, when in fact that



uncertainty is probably what is giving drivers pause when they see the



flashing light.







The other amusing thing I've noticed on multiple occasions is that when



I'm stopped at a red light, waiting to straight across, and the opposing



vehicle is turning left. If I have the flashing light on then they'll



suddenly turn on their turn signal, as if it's only required when



there's someone coming the other way. Without the flashing light,



there's often no acknowledgement that I'm there.



By the way, where is the research about daytime flashers? Not being contentious, I just don't want to have to go searching for it on my lunch break.



-- Jay Beattie.





You have to pay to play. But the abstract of one such study states: "For

large signal contrasts (nighttime) the conspicuity of steady and

flashing signals is approximately equal. For small contrasts (daytime)

the conspicuity of flashing signals is considerably greater. These

results suggest that flashing rather than steady signals be used for

warning purposes.



(parenthesis mine)



http://www.opticsinfobase.org/josa/abstract.cfm?id=50654



Also see

http://www.faa.gov/air_traffic/publications/atpubs/aim/aim0202.html.



There are other paid articles as well.



As I stated earlier, if you're looking for a bicycle-specific study on

the effectiveness of flashing lights then there's nothing. You have to

extrapolate from studies of daytime conspicuity of flashing lights in

other situations.



Also there are other studies that examined only night time conspicuity

between steady and solid lights and of course those showed a benefit for

flashing.

But bicycle flashing lights in broad bright daylight are NOT that visible compared to the much more powerful motor vehicle lights!

Cheers