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#11
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Time to dispense with Greenland?
On Mar 27, 11:28 pm, Andre Jute wrote:
I do not want to start a religious war and having degree in geophysics I do understand that cause-effect reasoning in Earth science can be tricky Witchdoctors make the same argument: Only I understand what the spirits say. It's bull****. Chaos theory cuts both ways. I am not sure what you are trying to say. What I meant is that in geophysics controlled experiment on a large scale is impossible - we cannot control some parameters and measure others and try to create mathematical model based on such measurements (control voltage measure resistance and infer resistance). We can only measure selected set (hopefully complete set of parameters) during processes that occur naturally. That requires somewhat complete modeling and assumptions how different part of the models (terms in set of equations) can dominate behaviour in different. Which meachanism can be uncoupled and which neglected. Not sure why you mention chaos theory - we do not know - and cannot know precise boundary condition and while short term behavior is most certainly chaotic we try to find presence of global trends. I just explained it. There is proof that CO2 emissions follow warming spells. Therefore global warming is not caused by CO2 emissions. Please provide a reference. What would be the source of CO2 that is emited when temperature rises? Could it be that ocean was heating up and CO2 became less soluble in water and hence released into atmosphere? The guys who said the IPCC rewrote their reports to say the opposite of what they had written were severely discouraged by having their grants taken away, and told they couldn't sue the government. You should just count the big names who are supposed to have signed IPCC papers who say they never said that, or agreed to the other thing. That is some hearsay - you want to tell me that there is some sort of dark cabal of climatologists forcing everybody to change their data or else be ostracized? Hmmmmm - not sure if anybody can convince you o/w. It may be possible in one institution. But science is global. And nobody can control ALL the research. That is a fairytale. Anyway, a consensus of guys with grants at stake? Not just grants. You falsify data and it just takes one reviewer to take closer look and you are DEAD - you career is over - nobody would take such risk. I can remember when I couldn't get promoted because I was not a Keynesian OK so now comes "chip on the shoulder story" - thank for admitting that. Ugh. That's not risk management. That's scare-mongering of the same sort we saw with the atom bomb (which brought world peace) One word. Dirty bomb. and nuclear power (which is still the only clean power that is actually deliverable in enough megawatts). and Chernobyl. Kyoto is the most expensive guilt- trip the world has ever seen, billions spent to show we "care"; nobody now thinks it will work, but that too was presented as "the precautionary principle". Lots of words and no proof. And some nonchalant hand-waving a'la "nobody believes". Well let's see who in the know believes? Try this instead: That you will die is certain; when is uncertain and it bothers some people with not enough to keep them occupied. A precaution against the uncertainty of your moment of death is to cut your wrists right now -- you can act to reduce the uncertainty to zero. Analogies (esp faulty) do not prove anything. Environmental threats are without exception created and "managed" by committees, and at that committees with a constant financial interest in keeping the threat alive. Polar ice melting at unheard before rate is not managed by a committee. It is not some abstract creation. It is measurable FACT. The fellow in your film glides smoothly over a big lie right near the beginning of his little story when he's standing before his 3x3 grid of possible actions and outcomes. He says, "If we do something significant to prevent global warming." That's the sort of lie you hear from tele-evangelists, plastic guttering salesmen and Mormon missionaries. He doesn't know the outcome of any of his actions, you don't, I don't. We don't know what is "significant" action. What we do know is that natural forces are larger than any manmade significance. That is only halfway correct. Computer models can predict the outcome of your actions - like eg. cutting CO2 emissions. Those models can be to some degree verified and refined by fitting them to correctly model past behavior given (more or less correct initial data - 60 or 100 years ago and our best estimates of CO2 released into atmosphere during that period). And that is NOT witchcraft - you can fine-tune and verify your modeling. Then you ask to extrapolate trends forward and try to run them with different level of CO2 emissions. Now what exactly is so hard about that? What offends me most about most environmentalists is their hubris, their belief that they matter, that our moment in time must at all costs be preserved, that change is evil. Their attitude is inspired by fear, and evolution will eventually rid the genome of them. Good riddance. That is philosophy and personal opinion - possibly inspired by your bad experience in grad school or on post-doc position. But OK - you do not "like" environmentalists - what does that have to do with the question of how accurate climate modeling currently is? |
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#12
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Time to dispense with Greenland?
On Mar 27, 8:29*pm, RonSonic wrote:
On Thu, 27 Mar 2008 16:03:36 -0700 (PDT), Andre Jute wrote: In the last fortnight on most days my ride was either prevented or ruined by a cold wind from the North. And this has been a grim winter, with my central heating oil bill twice what it was last year. I certainly hope that after a particularly tough winter we shall not again soon hear from the instant short-series "experts" that we're all doomed because global warming is here. I say, bring on global warming, the sooner the better. And I've been to the Arctic. If it melts, no loss. Not to mention that the cold wind ruining my rides starts around Greenland. Time to dispense with Greenland too, don't you think? Andre Jute http://members.lycos.co.uk/fiultra/B...20CYCLING.html PS Of course, next week the cycling weather will start in earnest... I feel it in my bones. So don't expect me to hang around arguing fruitlessly with the environmentalists about their religion of doom and gloom. I'm a Simonite: my environment is better every year, and has been better every year of my life, as anyone can see who keeps his eyes open and his brain in gear. Those of us who know better will be out cycling while you waste your time talking to no one. In the meanwhile, here is some reading:http://docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/mwr/...0-11-0589a.pdf Scroll down, left column. Enjoy, Ron- Hide quoted text - - Show quoted text - Well, this document is showing the fossil fuel burned into CO2 since the 1850s were already having a warming effect. Especially since ice shelfs are extremely sensitive to slight changes in water temperature. The question really should be "When do the Florida and Bangladesh refugees get sent to the winter wheat farms where the glaciers used to be on Greenland?". |
#13
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Time to dispense with Greenland?
Hey, Woe, I don't want to waste a lot of time on your kindergarden
debating tricks, but don't you think it a bit odd for someoone who brags about "having degree in geophysics", as you do, to ask me for a reference to the IPCC data correlating temperature rise and CO2 emissions? What sort of an school gave you that degree if you still have to ask such a fresher question? Andre Jute http://members.lycos.co.uk/fiultra/B...20CYCLING.html On Mar 28, 7:24*am, Woland99 wrote: On Mar 27, 11:28 pm, Andre Jute wrote: I do not want to start a religious war and having degree in geophysics I do understand that cause-effect reasoning in Earth science can be tricky Witchdoctors make the same argument: Only I understand what the spirits say. It's bull****. Chaos theory cuts both ways. I am not sure what you are trying to say. What I meant is that in geophysics controlled experiment on a large scale is impossible - we cannot control some parameters and measure others and try to create mathematical model based on such measurements (control voltage measure resistance and infer resistance). We can only measure selected set (hopefully complete set of parameters) during processes that occur naturally. That requires somewhat complete modeling and assumptions how different part of the models (terms in set of equations) can dominate behaviour in different. Which meachanism can be uncoupled and which neglected. Not sure why you mention chaos theory - we do not know - and cannot know precise boundary condition and while short term behavior is most certainly chaotic we try to find presence of global trends. I just explained it. There is proof that CO2 emissions follow warming spells. Therefore global warming is not caused by CO2 emissions. Please provide a reference. What would be the source of CO2 that is emited when temperature rises? Could it be that ocean was heating up and CO2 became less soluble in water and hence released into atmosphere? The guys who said the IPCC rewrote their reports to say the opposite of what they had written were severely discouraged by having their grants taken away, and told they couldn't sue the government. You should just count the big names who are supposed to have signed IPCC papers who say they never said that, or agreed to the other thing. That is some hearsay - you want to tell me that there is some sort of dark cabal of climatologists forcing everybody to change their data or else be ostracized? Hmmmmm - not sure if anybody can convince you o/w. It may be possible in one institution. But science is global. And nobody can control ALL the research. That is a fairytale. Anyway, a consensus of guys with grants at stake? Not just grants. You falsify data and it just takes one reviewer to take closer look and you are DEAD - you career is over - nobody would take such risk. I can remember when I couldn't get promoted because I was not a Keynesian OK so now comes "chip on the shoulder story" - thank for admitting that. Ugh. That's not risk management. That's scare-mongering of the same sort we saw with the atom bomb (which brought world peace) One word. Dirty bomb. and nuclear power (which is still the only clean power that is actually deliverable in enough megawatts). and Chernobyl. Kyoto is the most expensive guilt- trip the world has ever seen, billions spent to show we "care"; nobody now thinks it will work, but that too was presented as "the precautionary principle". Lots of words and no proof. And some nonchalant hand-waving a'la "nobody believes". Well let's see who in the know believes? Try this instead: That you will die is certain; when is uncertain and it bothers some people with not enough to keep them occupied. A precaution against the uncertainty of your moment of death is to cut your wrists right now -- you can act to reduce the uncertainty to zero. Analogies (esp faulty) do not prove anything. Environmental threats are without exception created and "managed" by committees, and at that committees with a constant financial interest in keeping the threat alive. Polar ice melting at unheard before rate is not managed by a committee. It is not some abstract creation. It is measurable FACT. The fellow in your film glides smoothly over a big lie right near the beginning of his little story when he's standing before his 3x3 grid of possible actions and outcomes. He says, "If we do something significant to prevent global warming." That's the sort of lie you hear from tele-evangelists, plastic guttering salesmen and Mormon missionaries. He doesn't know the outcome of any of his actions, you don't, I don't. We don't know what is "significant" action. What we do know is that natural forces are larger than any manmade significance. That is only halfway correct. Computer models can predict the outcome of your actions - like eg. cutting CO2 emissions. Those models can be to some degree verified and refined by fitting them to correctly model past behavior given (more or less correct initial data - 60 or 100 years ago and our best estimates of CO2 released into atmosphere during that period). And that is NOT witchcraft - you can fine-tune and verify your modeling. Then you ask to extrapolate trends forward and try to run them with different level of CO2 emissions. Now what exactly is so hard about that? What offends me most about most environmentalists is their hubris, their belief that they matter, that our moment in time must at all costs be preserved, that change is evil. Their attitude is inspired by fear, and evolution will eventually rid the genome of them. Good riddance. That is philosophy and personal opinion - possibly inspired by your bad experience in grad school or on post-doc position. But OK - you do not "like" environmentalists - what does that have to do with the question of how accurate climate modeling currently is? |
#14
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Time to dispense with Greenland?
On Mar 28, 6:19*pm, "
wrote: On Mar 27, 8:29*pm, RonSonic wrote: On Thu, 27 Mar 2008 16:03:36 -0700 (PDT), Andre Jute wrote: In the last fortnight on most days my ride was either prevented or ruined by a cold wind from the North. And this has been a grim winter, with my central heating oil bill twice what it was last year. I certainly hope that after a particularly tough winter we shall not again soon hear from the instant short-series "experts" that we're all doomed because global warming is here. I say, bring on global warming, the sooner the better. And I've been to the Arctic. If it melts, no loss. Not to mention that the cold wind ruining my rides starts around Greenland. Time to dispense with Greenland too, don't you think? Andre Jute http://members.lycos.co.uk/fiultra/B...20CYCLING.html PS Of course, next week the cycling weather will start in earnest... I feel it in my bones. So don't expect me to hang around arguing fruitlessly with the environmentalists about their religion of doom and gloom. I'm a Simonite: my environment is better every year, and has been better every year of my life, as anyone can see who keeps his eyes open and his brain in gear. Those of us who know better will be out cycling while you waste your time talking to no one. In the meanwhile, here is some reading:http://docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/mwr/...0-11-0589a.pdf Scroll down, left column. Enjoy, Ron- Hide quoted text - - Show quoted text - Well, this document is showing the fossil fuel burned into CO2 since the 1850s were already having a warming effect. *Especially since ice shelfs are extremely sensitive to slight changes in water temperature. The question really should be "When do the Florida and Bangladesh refugees get sent to the winter wheat farms where the glaciers used to be on Greenland?". Jesus. You mean Greenland isn't going to fall into the sea -- that instead it will grow bigger. Hell! That means the winds blowing from Greenland to Ireland will be even nastier. I'm moving to Florida, or may Queensland, except they're even more uncouth in Queensland than in Florida. Andre Jute http://members.lycos.co.uk/fiultra/B...20CYCLING.html |
#15
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Time to dispense with Greenland?
On Mar 28, 6:10*am, "Bill Sornson" wrote:
Woland99 wrote: Hmmmm - you realize of course that GLOBAL warming can result in LOCAL cooling? I can't tell how sarcastic your post is. The warmest year on record was 1998. *The earth's been /cooling/ since then. HTH (BKIW). Shut up, Bill. 1998 was a *great* year, mild and pleasant. We want more years like 1998. If these environmental wreckers find out about 1998, they will have another world conference to stop us getting another year like that. -- Andre Jute |
#16
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Time to dispense with Greenland?
On Mar 28, 4:28*am, wrote:
On Mar 27, 9:35*pm, Woland99 wrote: On Mar 27, 10:14 pm, Andre Jute wrote: On Mar 28, 12:58 am, Woland99 wrote: On Mar 27, 6:03 pm, Andre Jute wrote: In the last fortnight on most days my ride was either prevented or ruined by a cold wind from the North. And this has been a grim winter, with my central heating oil bill twice what it was last year. I certainly hope that after a particularly tough winter we shall not again soon hear from the instant short-series "experts" that we're all doomed because global warming is here. I say, bring on global warming, the sooner the better. And I've been to the Arctic. If it melts, no loss. Not to mention that the cold wind ruining my rides starts around Greenland. Time to dispense with Greenland too, don't you think? Andre Jutehttp://members.lycos.co.uk/fiultra/BICYCLE%20%26%20CYCLING.html PS Of course, next week the cycling weather will start in earnest.... I feel it in my bones. So don't expect me to hang around arguing fruitlessly with the environmentalists about their religion of doom and gloom. I'm a Simonite: my environment is better every year, and has been better every year of my life, as anyone can see who keeps his eyes open and his brain in gear. Those of us who know better will be out cycling while you waste your time talking to no one. Hmmmm - you realize of course that GLOBAL warming can result in LOCAL cooling? I can't tell how sarcastic your post is. For those who believe in global warming in the first instance, perhaps. Not everyone is so incompetent with statistics as Al Gore who, standing in front of a wallsize graph showing clearly that warming leads CO2 emissions and always has, claimed loudly, and still claims, that CO2 causes temperature increase. When the fundamental claim of a religion is that easily contested, its magic isn't much chop and it had better not take Nostradamus as a middle name. Andre Jute Cyclists don't have to be fashion victims I do not want to start a religious war and having degree in geophysics I do understand that cause-effect reasoning in Earth science can be tricky but which part of global warming theory that you find may not be correct? I thought it was not matter of "belief" anymore and majority of scientists agree on it. Besides - even if you have your doubts there was that risk management-influenced argument on Youtube that was somewhat convincing:http://youtube.com/watch?v=bDsIFspVzfI It is 10 mins long and after watching it there is absolutely nothing you can do but agree that there should be some action taken. Try it.- Hide quoted text - - Show quoted text - Sure, let's take action, any action, to prevent a climatalogical catastrophy that isn't actually happening, even if it means destroying the strongest economic engine (US-styled capitalism) in modern times? Well, Kyoto is all about punishing efficient economies for being efficient and rich (and white) and permitting those in the third world (like China and Taiwan and India!) to pollute more. Andre Jute Human stupidity is the only resource that is not rationed by the Kyoto Agreement |
#17
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Time to dispense with Greenland?
On Mar 27, 11:28 pm, Andre Jute wrote:
On Mar 28, 3:35 am, Woland99 wrote: On Mar 27, 10:14 pm, Andre Jute wrote: On Mar 28, 12:58 am, Woland99 wrote: On Mar 27, 6:03 pm, Andre Jute wrote: In the last fortnight on most days my ride was either prevented or ruined by a cold wind from the North. And this has been a grim winter, with my central heating oil bill twice what it was last year. I certainly hope that after a particularly tough winter we shall not again soon hear from the instant short-series "experts" that we're all doomed because global warming is here. I say, bring on global warming, the sooner the better. And I've been to the Arctic. If it melts, no loss. Not to mention that the cold wind ruining my rides starts around Greenland. Time to dispense with Greenland too, don't you think? Andre Jutehttp://members.lycos.co.uk/fiultra/BICYCLE%20%26%20CYCLING.html PS Of course, next week the cycling weather will start in earnest... I feel it in my bones. So don't expect me to hang around arguing fruitlessly with the environmentalists about their religion of doom and gloom. I'm a Simonite: my environment is better every year, and has been better every year of my life, as anyone can see who keeps his eyes open and his brain in gear. Those of us who know better will be out cycling while you waste your time talking to no one. Hmmmm - you realize of course that GLOBAL warming can result in LOCAL cooling? I can't tell how sarcastic your post is. For those who believe in global warming in the first instance, perhaps. Not everyone is so incompetent with statistics as Al Gore who, standing in front of a wallsize graph showing clearly that warming leads CO2 emissions and always has, claimed loudly, and still claims, that CO2 causes temperature increase. When the fundamental claim of a religion is that easily contested, its magic isn't much chop and it had better not take Nostradamus as a middle name. Andre Jute Cyclists don't have to be fashion victims I do not want to start a religious war and having degree in geophysics I do understand that cause-effect reasoning in Earth science can be tricky Witchdoctors make the same argument: Only I understand what the spirits say. It's bull****. Chaos theory cuts both ways. but which part of global warming theory that you find may not be correct? I just explained it. There is proof that CO2 emissions follow warming spells. Therefore global warming is not caused by CO2 emissions. Holy crap man! WOW! Holy ****! You just created a whole new logical paradigm: if one causal sequence of events is true, then ANY OTHER CAUSAL RELATIONSHIP INVOLVING THE COMPONENTS OF THE ORIGINAL CAN'T BE TRUE! This can be applied to a whole buncha stuff to prove it doesn't work! And that stuff won't work, through the force of your immense intellect. And the function of causal relationships (or lack thereof) will be dependent on the one the causal relationship you declare first! The Principle of Primacy! CO2 is a greenhouse gas. When there's a lot of it in the atmosphere, it retains heat/energy moreso than with lower levels of CO2 in the atmosphere. And BTW, Global Warming also means more, wilder weather swings. Hot or cold. Seen any of those lately, genius? Dumbass. And you even got dumbass Bill Sornson in on the moronicism. Go back to sucking Lush Rimjob's dick and give up the trolling, eh? D'ohBoy |
#18
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Time to dispense with Greenland?
Anonymous Duhboy sputtered:
On Mar 27, 11:28 pm, Andre Jute wrote: On Mar 28, 3:35 am, Woland99 wrote: On Mar 27, 10:14 pm, Andre Jute wrote: On Mar 28, 12:58 am, Woland99 wrote: On Mar 27, 6:03 pm, Andre Jute wrote: In the last fortnight on most days my ride was either prevented or ruined by a cold wind from the North. And this has been a grim winter, with my central heating oil bill twice what it was last year. I certainly hope that after a particularly tough winter we shall not again soon hear from the instant short-series "experts" that we're all doomed because global warming is here. I say, bring on global warming, the sooner the better. And I've been to the Arctic. If it melts, no loss. Not to mention that the cold wind ruining my rides starts around Greenland. Time to dispense with Greenland too, don't you think? Andre Jutehttp://members.lycos.co.uk/fiultra/BICYCLE%20%26%20CYCLING.html PS Of course, next week the cycling weather will start in earnest... I feel it in my bones. So don't expect me to hang around arguing fruitlessly with the environmentalists about their religion of doom and gloom. I'm a Simonite: my environment is better every year, and has been better every year of my life, as anyone can see who keeps his eyes open and his brain in gear. Those of us who know better will be out cycling while you waste your time talking to no one. Hmmmm - you realize of course that GLOBAL warming can result in LOCAL cooling? I can't tell how sarcastic your post is. For those who believe in global warming in the first instance, perhaps. Not everyone is so incompetent with statistics as Al Gore who, standing in front of a wallsize graph showing clearly that warming leads CO2 emissions and always has, claimed loudly, and still claims, that CO2 causes temperature increase. When the fundamental claim of a religion is that easily contested, its magic isn't much chop and it had better not take Nostradamus as a middle name. Andre Jute Cyclists don't have to be fashion victims I do not want to start a religious war and having degree in geophysics I do understand that cause-effect reasoning in Earth science can be tricky Witchdoctors make the same argument: Only I understand what the spirits say. It's bull****. Chaos theory cuts both ways. but which part of global warming theory that you find may not be correct? I just explained it. There is proof that CO2 emissions follow warming spells. Therefore global warming is not caused by CO2 emissions. Holy crap man! *WOW! *Holy ****! You just created a whole new logical paradigm: *if one causal sequence of events is true, then ANY OTHER CAUSAL RELATIONSHIP INVOLVING THE COMPONENTS OF THE ORIGINAL CAN'T BE TRUE! *This can be applied to a whole buncha stuff to prove it doesn't work! *And that stuff won't work, through the force of your immense intellect. And the function of causal relationships (or lack thereof) will be dependent on the one the causal relationship you declare first! *The Principle of Primacy! CO2 is a greenhouse gas. *When there's a lot of it in the atmosphere, it retains heat/energy moreso than with lower levels of CO2 in the atmosphere. *And BTW, Global Warming also means more, wilder weather swings. * Hot or cold. * Seen any of those lately, genius? Dumbass. *And you even got dumbass Bill Sornson in on the moronicism. Go back to sucking Lush Rimjob's dick and give up the trolling, eh? D'ohBoy Nah, anonymous Duhboy, I'm just a simple overpaid jock who happens also to know something about statistics. To me it seems that if CO2 emissions historically *follow* rising temperature, then CO2 emissions are not responsible for global warming. Cause precedes effect, see? Result follows cause, see? It's real simple for those of us with our minds in gear. Who is Lush Rimjob, and why should I want to suck his dick? FIY, in my country we do leprechauns; we leave trolls to really ugly people like you, dear anyonymous Duhboy. Andre Jute Visit Andre Jute's leprechaun at http://members.lycos.co.uk/fiultra/ |
#19
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Time to dispense with Greenland?
On Mar 27, 8:32*pm, Andre Jute wrote:
On Mar 28, 1:29*am, Jay Beattie wrote: On Mar 27, 4:03*pm, Andre Jute wrote: In the last fortnight on most days my ride was either prevented or ruined by a cold wind from the North. And this has been a grim winter, with my central heating oil bill twice what it was last year. I certainly hope that after a particularly tough winter we shall not again soon hear from the instant short-series "experts" that we're all doomed because global warming is here. I say, bring on global warming, the sooner the better. And I've been to the Arctic. If it melts, no loss. Not to mention that the cold wind ruining my rides starts around Greenland. Time to dispense with Greenland too, don't you think? I would think your KT66s would keep you warm enough. -- Jay Beattie. I have an amp with KT66 of course -- every serious audiophile has -- but I don't play them much as they're on a pair of Quad II I repatriated for my retirement from Japan in an exchange for one of the amps I concocted, and on a couple of other pairs I have, one awaiting a rebuild, one on loan to a less fortunate audiophile. But KT66 hardly put out any heat in comparison to the absolutely bitch of heat generators, my Class A1 80W single-ended "Millennium's End" amps with 300Bs to drive the Svetlana SV572-3. If you know that a single-ended amp is doing *well* if it reaches 20% efficiency, you can imagine how much heat that amp generated; each driver 300B had it its power shunt- regulated by its own SV372-10. But I didn't break it up because of the heat, but because a four-unit amp with hundreds of volts just on the signal lines, never mind the kilovolt powerlines, is a bloody dangerous implement -- or so I sanctimoniously told people; the true reason was that the thing, with so many hefty transformers on it, was an absolute backbreaker to move, and I move my amps all the time. I used it to drive my QUAD ESL63 electrostats, just because people said I couldn't do it. Right now I'm playing a tiny 6SL7/6SN7 high-voltage headphone amp, also of my own devising, to drive STAX electrostratic headphones. (Well, before the usual ignorant net crocodiles call me a liar, the signal section is tiny; the power supply is twice the size of a 140W silicon camp sitting under the same table.) That's right, you have Quad speakers and not Quad amps (at least not in your system). That's why I was thinking the KT66s. You must be a favorite of the local electric utility. Around here, your heat output and power usage would get you investigated for being an indoor pot growing operation. -- Jay Beattie. |
#20
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Time to dispense with Greenland?
On Mar 28, 1:36 pm, Andre Jute wrote:
Hey, Woe, I don't want to waste a lot of time on your kindergarden debating tricks, but don't you think it a bit odd for someoone who brags about "having degree in geophysics", as you do, to ask me for a reference to the IPCC data correlating temperature rise and CO2 emissions? What sort of an school gave you that degree if you still have to ask such a fresher question? Andre Jutehttp://members.lycos.co.uk/fiultra/BICYCLE%20%26%20CYCLING.html On Mar 28, 7:24 am, Woland99 wrote: On Mar 27, 11:28 pm, Andre Jute wrote: I do not want to start a religious war and having degree in geophysics I do understand that cause-effect reasoning in Earth science can be tricky Witchdoctors make the same argument: Only I understand what the spirits say. It's bull****. Chaos theory cuts both ways. I am not sure what you are trying to say. What I meant is that in geophysics controlled experiment on a large scale is impossible - we cannot control some parameters and measure others and try to create mathematical model based on such measurements (control voltage measure resistance and infer resistance). We can only measure selected set (hopefully complete set of parameters) during processes that occur naturally. That requires somewhat complete modeling and assumptions how different part of the models (terms in set of equations) can dominate behaviour in different. Which meachanism can be uncoupled and which neglected. Not sure why you mention chaos theory - we do not know - and cannot know precise boundary condition and while short term behavior is most certainly chaotic we try to find presence of global trends. I just explained it. There is proof that CO2 emissions follow warming spells. Therefore global warming is not caused by CO2 emissions. Please provide a reference. What would be the source of CO2 that is emited when temperature rises? Could it be that ocean was heating up and CO2 became less soluble in water and hence released into atmosphere? The guys who said the IPCC rewrote their reports to say the opposite of what they had written were severely discouraged by having their grants taken away, and told they couldn't sue the government. You should just count the big names who are supposed to have signed IPCC papers who say they never said that, or agreed to the other thing. That is some hearsay - you want to tell me that there is some sort of dark cabal of climatologists forcing everybody to change their data or else be ostracized? Hmmmmm - not sure if anybody can convince you o/w. It may be possible in one institution. But science is global. And nobody can control ALL the research. That is a fairytale. Anyway, a consensus of guys with grants at stake? Not just grants. You falsify data and it just takes one reviewer to take closer look and you are DEAD - you career is over - nobody would take such risk. I can remember when I couldn't get promoted because I was not a Keynesian OK so now comes "chip on the shoulder story" - thank for admitting that. Ugh. That's not risk management. That's scare-mongering of the same sort we saw with the atom bomb (which brought world peace) One word. Dirty bomb. and nuclear power (which is still the only clean power that is actually deliverable in enough megawatts). and Chernobyl. Kyoto is the most expensive guilt- trip the world has ever seen, billions spent to show we "care"; nobody now thinks it will work, but that too was presented as "the precautionary principle". Lots of words and no proof. And some nonchalant hand-waving a'la "nobody believes". Well let's see who in the know believes? Try this instead: That you will die is certain; when is uncertain and it bothers some people with not enough to keep them occupied. A precaution against the uncertainty of your moment of death is to cut your wrists right now -- you can act to reduce the uncertainty to zero. Analogies (esp faulty) do not prove anything. Environmental threats are without exception created and "managed" by committees, and at that committees with a constant financial interest in keeping the threat alive. Polar ice melting at unheard before rate is not managed by a committee. It is not some abstract creation. It is measurable FACT. The fellow in your film glides smoothly over a big lie right near the beginning of his little story when he's standing before his 3x3 grid of possible actions and outcomes. He says, "If we do something significant to prevent global warming." That's the sort of lie you hear from tele-evangelists, plastic guttering salesmen and Mormon missionaries. He doesn't know the outcome of any of his actions, you don't, I don't. We don't know what is "significant" action. What we do know is that natural forces are larger than any manmade significance. That is only halfway correct. Computer models can predict the outcome of your actions - like eg. cutting CO2 emissions. Those models can be to some degree verified and refined by fitting them to correctly model past behavior given (more or less correct initial data - 60 or 100 years ago and our best estimates of CO2 released into atmosphere during that period). And that is NOT witchcraft - you can fine-tune and verify your modeling. Then you ask to extrapolate trends forward and try to run them with different level of CO2 emissions. Now what exactly is so hard about that? What offends me most about most environmentalists is their hubris, their belief that they matter, that our moment in time must at all costs be preserved, that change is evil. Their attitude is inspired by fear, and evolution will eventually rid the genome of them. Good riddance. That is philosophy and personal opinion - possibly inspired by your bad experience in grad school or on post-doc position. But OK - you do not "like" environmentalists - what does that have to do with the question of how accurate climate modeling currently is? Well since you are so polite and articulate in making your point... I finished geophysics 26 years ago then was doing PhD in finite element analysis of semiconductor devices for a brief time and then started programming. SO I would appreciate if you just post that link to data on CO2 level following rise of global temperature and prove it is not related to release of CO2 from the oceans. And leave "kindergarten" remarks aside. |
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