Don't hassle me - I'm riding my bike

Frank Krygowski writes:

On 7/8/2020 8:23 PM, Radey Shouman wrote:
AMuzi writes:

On 7/8/2020 5:39 PM, Radey Shouman wrote:
Frank Krygowski writes:

On 7/8/2020 9:45 AM, Radey Shouman wrote:
When the current pandemic is over there will be a variety of
estimates
of the death toll as well. That someone died is certain, that he would
have lived absent the pandemic not at all.

I think the best estimate of fatalities will come from comparing total
deaths for the COVID era vs. (say) the five year average of similar
months in previous years.

The UK total death rate showed a substantial increase at the start of
the pandemic, it has been down to normal levels for weeks now. I'm not
sure about US total death rates.

As always, some judgment will be needed, because people's behavioral
changes can have secondary effects. Thank goodness, that will give us
something to debate about.

There has been a lot of collateral damage, for example people missing
chemotherapy or other needed medical treatment. Some of them have died
when they would have lived with treatment. More will die, some possibly
years in the future because they missed vaccinations during the covid
pandemic.


You're right.

On the other side, clinics, surgery centers, hospitals and notably
huge hospital systems are financially stressed for lack of revenue.
Until people start buying new knees and bariatric procedures and such,
the system won't be able to function.

I know that my local hospitals laid off a fairly large fraction of their
staff as a result of the pandemic. I'm fairly sure most are still out
of work.

Well, that's the free market at work.

Almost nothing about hospitals in the US is the free market at work.

Frank Krygowski writes:

On 7/8/2020 9:47 PM, AMuzi wrote:
On 7/8/2020 7:48 PM, John B. wrote:
On Wed, 08 Jul 2020 13:10:47 -0500, AMuzi wrote:

On 7/8/2020 11:16 AM, Frank Krygowski wrote:
On 7/8/2020 2:05 AM, Ralph Barone wrote:
Radey Shouman wrote:


But not much more, and less per capita, than died in the
pandemics of 1957
and 1968.


But note that the pandemics of 1957 and 1968 had one
important difference.
They’re over, while the US is still working through
their first wave of the
current pandemic. Implying that things aren’t that bad
now compared to 1957
or 1968 is akin to publishing the death toll from an
airplane crash before
the plane hits the ground.

That reminds me of a comment I read about the early
re-openings in several states, like Florida and Georgia:

"The parachute has slowed our rate of fall, so it's OK to
cut it loose."



Translation, "We're lounging around home at full pay, just
like we used to slough off at the State offices, so we
really don't give a damn whether you're working, whether
your children eat, whether your mortgage is paid, or not."


As I have said a number of times it is easy to criticize and difficult
to provide solutions.

So, tell us, what is the solution?

I might say that Thailand which evoked Emergency Regulation early on
and introduced what I'm sure you would consider draconian control
measures hasn't had a home grown case of the virus in more then 40
days while the U.S. is reporting new cases in nearly double the
numbers of previous months.
--
Cheers,

John B.


Variations abound.
Japan didn't order businesses closed.

Sweden didn't either, and now has infection & death stats way worse
than its neighbors, and an economy that's barely better than theirs.

Perhaps we should compare Massachusetts with its neighboring states.
We're doing a lot worse. Strangely, our lockdown has been more
stringent than theirs.

Sweden didn't either, and now has infection & death stats way worse
than its neighbors, and an economy that's barely better than theirs.

Perhaps we should compare Massachusetts with its neighboring states.
We're doing a lot worse. Strangely, our lockdown has been more
stringent than theirs.

Let's compare deaths per million.

Massachusetts: 1196

New York: 1663
Connecticut: 1218
Rhode Island: 919
New Hampshi 284
Vermont: 90

Degree of urbanization seems to be the key factor.

Source:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

On 7/9/2020 12:45 PM, Frank Krygowski wrote:
On 7/8/2020 8:23 PM, Radey Shouman wrote:
AMuzi writes:

On 7/8/2020 5:39 PM, Radey Shouman wrote:
Frank Krygowski writes:

On 7/8/2020 9:45 AM, Radey Shouman wrote:
When the current pandemic is over there will be a
variety of
estimates
of the death toll as well. That someone died is
certain, that he would
have lived absent the pandemic not at all.

I think the best estimate of fatalities will come from
comparing total
deaths for the COVID era vs. (say) the five year
average of similar
months in previous years.

The UK total death rate showed a substantial increase at
the start of
the pandemic, it has been down to normal levels for
weeks now. I'm not
sure about US total death rates.

As always, some judgment will be needed, because
people's behavioral
changes can have secondary effects. Thank goodness,
that will give us
something to debate about.

There has been a lot of collateral damage, for example
people missing
chemotherapy or other needed medical treatment. Some of
them have died
when they would have lived with treatment. More will
die, some possibly
years in the future because they missed vaccinations
during the covid
pandemic.


You're right.

On the other side, clinics, surgery centers, hospitals
and notably
huge hospital systems are financially stressed for lack
of revenue.
Until people start buying new knees and bariatric
procedures and such,
the system won't be able to function.

I know that my local hospitals laid off a fairly large
fraction of their
staff as a result of the pandemic. I'm fairly sure most
are still out
of work.

Well, that's the free market at work.



Very little of the medical racket is a free market by any
definition.

One example is Lasik, which has dropped from thousands of
dollars per eye to a few hundred. Another is private MRI for
which I hear radio ads regularly $495. A hospital MRI bills
out at $3000+. There are other areas where innovation and
efficiency have moved mountains. They are few and far between.

--
Andrew Muzi
www.yellowjersey.org/
Open every day since 1 April, 1971

On 7/9/2020 12:58 PM, Frank Krygowski wrote:
On 7/8/2020 9:47 PM, AMuzi wrote:
On 7/8/2020 7:48 PM, John B. wrote:
On Wed, 08 Jul 2020 13:10:47 -0500, AMuzi
wrote:

On 7/8/2020 11:16 AM, Frank Krygowski wrote:
On 7/8/2020 2:05 AM, Ralph Barone wrote:
Radey Shouman wrote:


But not much more, and less per capita, than died in the
pandemics of 1957
and 1968.


But note that the pandemics of 1957 and 1968 had one
important difference.
They’re over, while the US is still working through
their first wave of the
current pandemic. Implying that things aren’t that bad
now compared to 1957
or 1968 is akin to publishing the death toll from an
airplane crash before
the plane hits the ground.

That reminds me of a comment I read about the early
re-openings in several states, like Florida and Georgia:

"The parachute has slowed our rate of fall, so it's OK to
cut it loose."



Translation, "We're lounging around home at full pay, just
like we used to slough off at the State offices, so we
really don't give a damn whether you're working, whether
your children eat, whether your mortgage is paid, or not."


As I have said a number of times it is easy to criticize
and difficult
to provide solutions.

So, tell us, what is the solution?

I might say that Thailand which evoked Emergency
Regulation early on
and introduced what I'm sure you would consider draconian
control
measures hasn't had a home grown case of the virus in
more then 40
days while the U.S. is reporting new cases in nearly
double the
numbers of previous months.
--
Cheers,

John B.


Variations abound.
Japan didn't order businesses closed.

Sweden didn't either, and now has infection & death stats
way worse than its neighbors, and an economy that's barely
better than theirs.



Right but there's no correlation across policies/results.

Japan didn't and fared well, Sweden didn't and suffered.

Belgium was about average in punitive policy but worst for
outcome.

--
Andrew Muzi
www.yellowjersey.org/
Open every day since 1 April, 1971

On 7/9/2020 1:09 PM, Frank Krygowski wrote:
On 7/8/2020 9:41 PM, John B. wrote:
On Wed, 8 Jul 2020 19:26:30 -0400, Frank Krygowski
wrote:

On 7/8/2020 6:46 PM, Radey Shouman wrote:
Ralph Barone writes:

The ongoing and rising polarization in the US has led
to the current state
where everything which should be discussed on a
continuum ends up being
reduced to a binary choice and nobody wants to discuss
rational compromise
solutions for fear of being branded a “splitter� by
their tribe.

It's really worse than that. No one is willing to
entertain the thought
that the factual state of the world is in any way
different that
whatever their in-group believes it to be.

I understand your point. I'd object only to the "no one."
I straddle the
line on many hot button issues, conservative on some,
liberal on others.
I know others who are the same - not necessarily matching
my attitudes,
but nevertheless holding a mix of views.

Granted, I don't know the percentage who are moderate vs.
extreme left
vs. extreme right. I suppose Google knows - or claims to.

One of the things that bother me is what appears to be a
total
ignorance of fact in forming an opinion.

In the most recent Hoo-Haa, slavery existed in the U.S.
from the first
settlements and the Civil war was not fought to free the
slaves and
Lincoln's Emancipation Proclamation did not "free the
slaves" per se.

Slavery existed from the first in the American colonies
largely because it existed in nations around the world from
time immemorial.

I'm not in favor of slavery. But so many people seem to
believe it was a U.S. invention. That's grossly wrong.

See
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeli...ry_and_serfdom




And it's both large and growing.

--
Andrew Muzi
www.yellowjersey.org/
Open every day since 1 April, 1971

On Thu, 9 Jul 2020 14:09:28 -0400, Frank Krygowski
wrote:

On 7/8/2020 9:41 PM, John B. wrote:
On Wed, 8 Jul 2020 19:26:30 -0400, Frank Krygowski
wrote:

On 7/8/2020 6:46 PM, Radey Shouman wrote:
Ralph Barone writes:

The ongoing and rising polarization in the US has led to the current state
where everything which should be discussed on a continuum ends up being
reduced to a binary choice and nobody wants to discuss rational compromise
solutions for fear of being branded a “splitter” by their tribe.

It's really worse than that. No one is willing to entertain the thought
that the factual state of the world is in any way different that
whatever their in-group believes it to be.

I understand your point. I'd object only to the "no one." I straddle the
line on many hot button issues, conservative on some, liberal on others.
I know others who are the same - not necessarily matching my attitudes,
but nevertheless holding a mix of views.

Granted, I don't know the percentage who are moderate vs. extreme left
vs. extreme right. I suppose Google knows - or claims to.

One of the things that bother me is what appears to be a total
ignorance of fact in forming an opinion.

In the most recent Hoo-Haa, slavery existed in the U.S. from the first
settlements and the Civil war was not fought to free the slaves and
Lincoln's Emancipation Proclamation did not "free the slaves" per se.

Slavery existed from the first in the American colonies largely because
it existed in nations around the world from time immemorial.


Of course it did. I read somewhere that when Caesar invaded Gaul the
warfare it resulted in such masses of slaves that the market all
around the Mediterranean was depressed.


I'm not in favor of slavery. But so many people seem to believe it was a
U.S. invention. That's grossly wrong.

See
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeli...ry_and_serfdom
--
Cheers,

John B.

Bertrand writes:

Sweden didn't either, and now has infection & death stats way worse
than its neighbors, and an economy that's barely better than theirs.

Perhaps we should compare Massachusetts with its neighboring states.
We're doing a lot worse. Strangely, our lockdown has been more
stringent than theirs.

Let's compare deaths per million.

Massachusetts: 1196

New York: 1663
Connecticut: 1218
Rhode Island: 919
New Hampshi 284
Vermont: 90

Thanks. I'm closer to New Hampshire and Vermont, so they were more in mind.

Degree of urbanization seems to be the key factor.

Source:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/


--

On 7/9/2020 5:33 PM, AMuzi wrote:
On 7/9/2020 12:45 PM, Frank Krygowski wrote:
On 7/8/2020 8:23 PM, Radey Shouman wrote:
AMuzi writes:

On 7/8/2020 5:39 PM, Radey Shouman wrote:
Frank Krygowski writes:

On 7/8/2020 9:45 AM, Radey Shouman wrote:
Â*Â* When the current pandemic is over there will be a
variety of
estimates
of the death toll as well.Â* That someone died is
certain, that he would
have lived absent the pandemic not at all.

I think the best estimate of fatalities will come from
comparing total
deaths for the COVID era vs. (say) the five year
average of similar
months in previous years.

The UK total death rate showed a substantial increase at
the start of
the pandemic, it has been down to normal levels for
weeks now.Â* I'm not
sure about US total death rates.

As always, some judgment will be needed, because
people's behavioral
changes can have secondary effects. Thank goodness,
that will give us
something to debate about.

There has been a lot of collateral damage, for example
people missing
chemotherapy or other needed medical treatment.Â* Some of
them have died
when they would have lived with treatment.Â* More will
die, some possibly
years in the future because they missed vaccinations
during the covid
pandemic.


You're right.

On the other side, clinics, surgery centers, hospitals
and notably
huge hospital systems are financially stressed for lack
of revenue.
Until people start buying new knees and bariatric
procedures and such,
the system won't be able to function.

I know that my local hospitals laid off a fairly large
fraction of their
staff as a result of the pandemic.Â* I'm fairly sure most
are still out
of work.

Well, that's the free market at work.



Very little of the medical racket is a free market by any definition.

I was thinking "There's no current market for your work. So you're free
to go."

--
- Frank Krygowski

On 7/9/2020 5:47 PM, John B. wrote:
On Thu, 9 Jul 2020 14:09:28 -0400, Frank Krygowski
wrote:

On 7/8/2020 9:41 PM, John B. wrote:
On Wed, 8 Jul 2020 19:26:30 -0400, Frank Krygowski
wrote:

On 7/8/2020 6:46 PM, Radey Shouman wrote:
Ralph Barone writes:

The ongoing and rising polarization in the US has led to the current state
where everything which should be discussed on a continuum ends up being
reduced to a binary choice and nobody wants to discuss rational compromise
solutions for fear of being branded a “splitter” by their tribe.

It's really worse than that. No one is willing to entertain the thought
that the factual state of the world is in any way different that
whatever their in-group believes it to be.

I understand your point. I'd object only to the "no one." I straddle the
line on many hot button issues, conservative on some, liberal on others.
I know others who are the same - not necessarily matching my attitudes,
but nevertheless holding a mix of views.

Granted, I don't know the percentage who are moderate vs. extreme left
vs. extreme right. I suppose Google knows - or claims to.

One of the things that bother me is what appears to be a total
ignorance of fact in forming an opinion.

In the most recent Hoo-Haa, slavery existed in the U.S. from the first
settlements and the Civil war was not fought to free the slaves and
Lincoln's Emancipation Proclamation did not "free the slaves" per se.

Slavery existed from the first in the American colonies largely because
it existed in nations around the world from time immemorial.


Of course it did. I read somewhere that when Caesar invaded Gaul the
warfare it resulted in such masses of slaves that the market all
around the Mediterranean was depressed.


I'm not in favor of slavery. But so many people seem to believe it was a
U.S. invention. That's grossly wrong.

See
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeli...ry_and_serfdom
--
Cheers,

John B.


Exactly. and in the same way that the rise of IS depressed
slave prices in Riyadh a couple of years ago.

--
Andrew Muzi
www.yellowjersey.org/
Open every day since 1 April, 1971