Sunday Times article on cycling safety.

The chap who regularly writes a bit about cycling in the Sunday Times
was this week stressing the safety of cycling and said that one
cyclist was killed for every 20 million miles cycled.
What???
That means that for the ten cyclists killed per annum in Ireland, 200
million miles are cyclist.
Let's assume (wrongly) that 50,000 people cycle here. That means that
the average cyclist cycles 40000 miles per annum.

This figure stinks.

Anybody know what the real figure is.

Garry from Cork wrote:
The chap who regularly writes a bit about cycling in the Sunday Times
was this week stressing the safety of cycling and said that one
cyclist was killed for every 20 million miles cycled.
What???
That means that for the ten cyclists killed per annum in Ireland, 200
million miles are cyclist.
Let's assume (wrongly) that 50,000 people cycle here. That means that
the average cyclist cycles 40000 miles per annum.

This figure stinks.

Anybody know what the real figure is.
Are you sure you're a scientist?

Why should figures for the UK be portable to Ireland?

Garry from Cork wrote:

Anybody know what the real figure is.

LONDON
------

http://www.tfl.gov.uk/streets/downloads/pdf/LRSR/Topic_Factsheets/Pedal-Cyclist-Casualties-04-05.pdf

Working from the data contained in this document I've worked out the
average distance between accidents.

Slight - 75,000 miles
Killed/Seriously injured - 460,000 miles
Any - 66,000 miles

This takes into account the known under-reporting at a constant 60%
which is more pessimistic than the best estimate also provided.

For somebody doing 5000 miles a year this is:

Slight - 15 years
Killed/Seriously injured - 92 years
Any - 13 years

So much for the Guardian's 'nasty accident every year'.








--
Peter Fox
Beer, dancing, cycling and lots more at www.eminent.demon.co.uk

Garry from Cork writes:

The chap who regularly writes a bit about cycling in the Sunday Times
was this week stressing the safety of cycling and said that one
cyclist was killed for every 20 million miles cycled.
What???
That means that for the ten cyclists killed per annum in Ireland, 200
million miles are cyclist.
Let's assume (wrongly) that 50,000 people cycle here. That means that
the average cyclist cycles 40000 miles per annum.

This figure stinks.

Anybody know what the real figure is.

Interesting. A quick bit of web-searching suggests for 2004 in Great
Britain there were 134 pedal cyclist deaths, for an estimate of 3,900
million vehicle kilometres, so about 29,000,000 km per death. If the
average cyclist does 2,000 km per annum that works out at about 2m
cyclists for a population of 59m. Ireland (the republic, NI is getting
left out at both ends here...) has a population of 4m, so a similar
proportion of cyclists would be around 135,000, not 50,000.

The interestsing questions are (1) what is the level of cycling here (in
Ireland) and (2) how dangerous is it. Ten deaths per annum isn't far
from the GB 134 in population terms (it would be just over 9). Ireland
doesn't seem to have anything like the level of systematic data
collection that would allow calculating the combined cycle kilometrage
-- the UK DoT seems to conduct systematic surveys, whereas most road
safety statistics here are collated from Garda reports.

I'm inclined to believe that levels of cycling are lower and the danger
is higher, but not on the basis of anything other than gut feeling.
However, I don't think the discrepancy is likely as big as Garry seems
to think.

Brendan
--
Brendan Halpin, Department of Sociology, University of Limerick, Ireland
Tel: w +353-61-213147 f +353-61-202569 h +353-61-338562; Room F2-025 x 3147
http://www.ul.ie/sociology/brendan.halpin.html

"Brendan Halpin" wrote in message
...
Garry from Cork writes:

Interesting. A quick bit of web-searching suggests for 2004 in Great
Britain there were 134 pedal cyclist deaths, for an estimate of 3,900
million vehicle kilometres, so about 29,000,000 km per death. If the
average cyclist does 2,000 km per annum that works out at about 2m
cyclists for a population of 59m.

Dont you all travel in packs though, and get taken out en mass ?

Peter Fox wrote:

For somebody doing 5000 miles a year this is:

Killed/Seriously injured - 92 years

I only do half that mileage, but they're still unattractive odds. They
*feel* correct based on my experience of British traffic, although I've
become wise to the usual tricks pulled by drivers, such as overtaking
and then immediately turning left (a cyclist, after all, moves so slowly
that he/she can be considered a stationary object).

I always breathe a sigh of relief when I get off the road and onto my
driveway at night.

Zog The Undeniable wrote:

Peter Fox wrote:

For somebody doing 5000 miles a year this is:

Killed/Seriously injured - 92 years

I only do half that mileage, but they're still unattractive odds.

Seriously? If the odds are that you would need to cycle 2500 miles /
year for 184 years in order to be KSId on British roads, would it not be
fair to say that the odds are that you will neither be killed nor
seriously injured?

They *feel* correct based on my experience of British traffic, although
I've become wise to the usual tricks pulled by drivers, such as overtaking
and then immediately turning left (a cyclist, after all, moves so slowly
that he/she can be considered a stationary object).

This is where I find it is helpful to cycle quite prominently in the
primary position.

I always breathe a sigh of relief when I get off the road and onto my
driveway at night.

It is perhaps fair to say that a certain amount of nervousness, AKA an
awareness of danger, keeps many of us alive.

Cheers,
Luke


--
Red Rose Ramblings, the diary of an Essex boy in
exile in Lancashire http://www.shrimper.org.uk

Ekul Namsob wrote:
Zog The Undeniable wrote:

Peter Fox wrote:

For somebody doing 5000 miles a year this is:
Killed/Seriously injured - 92 years
I only do half that mileage, but they're still unattractive odds.

Seriously? If the odds are that you would need to cycle 2500 miles /
year for 184 years in order to be KSId on British roads, would it not be
fair to say that the odds are that you will neither be killed nor
seriously injured?

According to the 2006 stats., you are 15.7 times more likely to be
seriously injured than killed outright, so thats 2900 years before being
killed on our roads.
Experienced cyclists should be less likely to be KSIed as they should be
aware of the main hazards (car doors, turning lorries, RLJ), and so
should last a lot longer.

On Feb 20, 7:43 am, Martin Dann wrote:
Ekul Namsob wrote:
Zog The Undeniable wrote:

Peter Fox wrote:

For somebody doing 5000 miles a year this is:
Killed/Seriously injured - 92 years
I only do half that mileage, but they're still unattractive odds.

Seriously? If the odds are that you would need to cycle 2500 miles /
year for 184 years in order to be KSId on British roads, would it not be
fair to say that the odds are that you will neither be killed nor
seriously injured?

According to the 2006 stats., you are 15.7 times more likely to be
seriously injured than killed outright, so thats 2900 years before being
killed on our roads.
Experienced cyclists should be less likely to be KSIed as they should be
aware of the main hazards (car doors, turning lorries, RLJ), and so
should last a lot longer.

Ken Kifer had a page on that, showing that LAB members had much much
lower rates than the average (which of course includes children and
beginners).

Of course my odds as a pedestrian and (not currently, but potentially)
car driver are also better than the average, for the same reason.

James

x-no-archive:Ekul Namsob wrote:
Zog The Undeniable wrote:

Peter Fox wrote:

For somebody doing 5000 miles a year this is:
Killed/Seriously injured - 92 years
I only do half that mileage, but they're still unattractive odds.

Seriously? If the odds are that you would need to cycle 2500 miles /
year for 184 years in order to be KSId on British roads, would it not be
fair to say that the odds are that you will neither be killed nor
seriously injured?


It would be fair to say that if he cycles for 60 years there is a 1 in 3
chance that he will be ksied. To me, that is scary, maybe to you it isn't.