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A GUIDE TO GLOBAL WARMING FOR THOSE EDUCATED IN THE UNIVERSITY OFLIFE



 
 
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  #11  
Old January 4th 09, 11:11 PM posted to rec.bicycles.tech
Dan O
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Default Any subject line in ALL CAPS is spam

On Jan 4, 9:28 am, Andre Jute wrote:

... a little simple calculation of how many acres could feed how many
people... (such numbers stand on RBT from the Irish famine
discussion only a few weeks ago)...


A utterly (no, incredibly) OT thread, begun by Andre Jute for the
apparent sole purpose of bragging how brilliant and clever he is, in
which Andre presents an example of himself regaling others with
(incorrect) "facts" pulled out of his a**, when in fact he did not
know what he was talking about.
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  #12  
Old January 4th 09, 11:45 PM posted to rec.bicycles.tech
Ben C
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Default A GUIDE TO GLOBAL WARMING FOR THOSE EDUCATED IN THE UNIVERSITY OF LIFE

On 2009-01-04, Andre Jute wrote:
[...]
A major test of a statistical model which presumes to predict the
future is that it must, given a start date sometime in the past,
accurately map the intervening known period. But none of the vaunted
models of the future put forward by the IPCC as predictors of world
temperature a century or two hence could map out the past reliably.

These models fell down at many points and for many reasons. But, most
strikingly, all fell down badly at two historical points. They are
called the Medieval Warm Period, when for several centuries it was
much warmer than it has been ever since, including in the 20th
century, and the Little Ice Age, when shortly after the reign of
Elizabeth the First and for the period covering the rise of the
Industrial Revolution, people skated annually on the Thames.


In most of the (pro-Global-Warming) TV documentaries I've seen, the
Medieval warm period _was_ attributed to an extended solar minimum. The
idea is less solar wind, more cosmic rays, more cloud formation, and it
gets colder.

It all goes into the computer model, and the more accurate its
"hindcasting" the more reliable extrapolations from it into the future
are supposed to be. This was always the case that was made. They present
a graph that tracks the ice core data convincingly, and then diverges
from about 1950, underestimating the temperature. Then they factor in
manmade CO2 and hey presto it tracks perfectly again until the present
day then shoots up in the near future.

The main problem with it is just how accurate is the computer model? How
much was it just "tweaked" to hindcast so accurately? It would be nice
to have more direct evidence of the effect of CO2 in the atmosphere on
climate.
  #13  
Old January 5th 09, 12:28 AM posted to rec.bicycles.tech
Andre Jute[_2_]
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Posts: 10,422
Default A GUIDE TO GLOBAL WARMING FOR THOSE EDUCATED IN THE UNIVERSITY OFLIFE

On Jan 4, 10:45*pm, Ben C wrote:
On 2009-01-04, Andre Jute wrote:
[...]

A major test of a statistical model which presumes to predict the
future is that it must, given a start date sometime in the past,
accurately map the intervening known period. But none of the vaunted
models of the future put forward by the IPCC as predictors of world
temperature a century or two hence could map out the past reliably.


These models fell down at many points and for many reasons. But, most
strikingly, all fell down badly at two historical points. They are
called the Medieval Warm Period, when for several centuries it was
much warmer than it has been ever since, including in the 20th
century, and the Little Ice Age, when shortly after the reign of
Elizabeth the First and for the period covering the rise of the
Industrial Revolution, people skated annually on the Thames.


In most of the (pro-Global-Warming) TV documentaries I've seen, the
Medieval warm period _was_ attributed to an extended solar minimum. The
idea is less solar wind, more cosmic rays, more cloud formation, and it
gets colder.


The beginning of the Little Ice Age corresponds with the Maunder
Minimum in Sun surface activity.

It all goes into the computer model, and the more accurate its
"hindcasting" the more reliable extrapolations from it into the future
are supposed to be. This was always the case that was made. They present
a graph that tracks the ice core data convincingly, and then diverges
from about 1950, underestimating the temperature. Then they factor in
manmade CO2 and hey presto it tracks perfectly again until the present
day then shoots up in the near future.

The main problem with it is just how accurate is the computer model?


Steve McIntyre, of the McIntyre & McKittrick team who exposed Mann's
shoddy works, is a businessman and engineer. At one stage he
complained that Mann's algorithm was so "highly tuned" (clearly a
euphmism for crooked) that, fed with random noise, it would produce a
hockey stick! It never seemed to have occurred to McIntyre, an
upstanding, honest citizen, that Mann wasn't doing science but
creating a political instrument that would speak in the desired tongue
of his paymasters.

But how can anyone trust the IPCC's models, which were tuned (let's
keep it polite!) to track the Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice
Age, and then retuned to track Mann's now disgraced flat hockey stick
and to provide a peak at the end of the 20th century, and now that the
MWP and LIA are reinstated, will be returned to track them again. A
model that easy is anyone's whore. No wonder the IPCC and its
"scientists" spread syphilis to the truth of whatever it touches.

How
much was it just "tweaked" to hindcast so accurately? It would be nice
to have more direct evidence of the effect of CO2 in the atmosphere on
climate.


Yes. I would say much stronger than nice. Crucial. Essential. We don't
know ****, those clowns at the IPCC have thoroughly muddied the waters
with their political games, but we cannot even decide on a research
strategy until we know something about the effect of CO2 in the
atmosphere on climate. That will be a longterm study, none of this
IPCC **** of announcing a startling conclusion before you've done the
research. Sometimes I wonder if there are any climate scientists at
all who remember how to do proper research.

Actually, Michael Mann, with his gross transgression of the mores of
decent scientific research, has probably done the entire scientific
community a service by drawing attention to the self-serving lack of
standards in the climate "sciences" and at the IPCC.

It's easier to find an honest trader in the Baghdad souk than an
honest scientist in the field of climate research. On RBT both the
self-proclaimed "scientists", Chung and Weiner, were struck out for
trying to cheat. Scientists, none for 2. That also means Truth, none
for 2. Pity.

Andre Jute
Chipping away patiently at ignorance and prejudice
  #14  
Old January 5th 09, 04:34 AM posted to rec.bicycles.tech
jim beam
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Default A GUIDE TO GLOBAL WARMING FOR THOSE EDUCATED IN THE UNIVERSITYOF LIFE

Andre Jute wrote:
snip non-bike tech

please move to alt.global-warming. thanks.

  #15  
Old January 5th 09, 09:49 AM posted to rec.bicycles.tech
Bill Sornson[_5_]
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Default A GUIDE TO GLOBAL WARMING FOR THOSE EDUCATED IN THE UNIVERSITY OF LIFE

Leo Lichtman wrote:
"Andre Jute" wrote: (clip) the global warming clowns (clip)
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^


One of these "clowns" is President Elect Obama


Ah, the man who used an EMPTY 767 to fly his family of 4 to Hawaii for 12
days of golf and other pressing matters of state. (Hell, at least this time
they flew together; often Michelle travels separately from hubby.)

Get a freaking clue, Leo.

Bill "maybe it was a /hybrid/ 767" S.


  #16  
Old January 5th 09, 01:18 PM posted to rec.bicycles.tech
Clive George
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Default A GUIDE TO GLOBAL WARMING FOR THOSE EDUCATED IN THE UNIVERSITY OF LIFE

"Andre Jute" wrote in message
...

Sometimes I wonder if there are any climate scientists at
all who remember how to do proper research.

...
It's easier to find an honest trader in the Baghdad souk than an
honest scientist in the field of climate research.


At least one poster to various cycling NGs is involved in that area, and he
seems willing to put money on some of the predictions you don't like - he's
called various climate-change deniers on their proposed bets and discovered
that they weren't nearly as sure about their statements as they seemed.

I merely not in passing that bestowing a Nobel Peace Prize on that
hypocrite Al Gore diminished the Prize considerable in the eyes of
many.


Kissinger. But I guess you love him.


  #17  
Old January 5th 09, 02:29 PM posted to rec.bicycles.tech
Tom Sherman[_2_]
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Default A GUIDE TO GLOBAL WARMING FOR THOSE EDUCATED IN THE UNIVERSITYOF LIFE

Clive George wrote:
"Andre Jute" wrote in message
...

Sometimes I wonder if there are any climate scientists at
all who remember how to do proper research.

..
It's easier to find an honest trader in the Baghdad souk than an
honest scientist in the field of climate research.


At least one poster to various cycling NGs is involved in that area, and he
seems willing to put money on some of the predictions you don't like - he's
called various climate-change deniers on their proposed bets and discovered
that they weren't nearly as sure about their statements as they seemed.

I merely not in passing that bestowing a Nobel Peace Prize on that
hypocrite Al Gore diminished the Prize considerable in the eyes of
many.


Kissinger. But I guess you love him.


Well, Mr. Jute is from the privileged elite, and not someone Kissinger
would dismiss as a "worthless eater".

--
Tom Sherman - 42.435731,-83.985007
LOCAL CACTUS EATS CYCLIST - datakoll
  #18  
Old January 5th 09, 05:40 PM posted to rec.bicycles.tech
Bill Sornson[_5_]
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Default A GUIDE TO GLOBAL WARMING FOR THOSE EDUCATED IN THE UNIVERSITY OF LIFE

Clive George wrote:
"Andre Jute" wrote in message
...

Sometimes I wonder if there are any climate scientists at
all who remember how to do proper research.

..
It's easier to find an honest trader in the Baghdad souk than an
honest scientist in the field of climate research.


At least one poster to various cycling NGs is involved in that area,
and he seems willing to put money on some of the predictions you
don't like - he's called various climate-change deniers on their
proposed bets and discovered that they weren't nearly as sure about
their statements as they seemed.


Should be easy money!

http://ultimateglobalwarmingchallenge.com/

http://newsbusters.org/blogs/noel-sh...u-save-al-gore

http://theclimatebet.com/2007/06/16/...ing-challenge/

http://dubyadubya.wordpress.com/2007...a-climate-bet/

http://heartlandinstitutechicago.wor...ion-challenge/

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environmen...ngeenvironment

http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/arc...l_warming_bet/

Do keep us informed, Clive.

BS (called)


  #19  
Old January 5th 09, 06:51 PM posted to rec.bicycles.tech
Clive George
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Posts: 5,394
Default A GUIDE TO GLOBAL WARMING FOR THOSE EDUCATED IN THE UNIVERSITY OF LIFE

"Bill Sornson" wrote in message
...
Clive George wrote:
"Andre Jute" wrote in message
...

Sometimes I wonder if there are any climate scientists at
all who remember how to do proper research.

..
It's easier to find an honest trader in the Baghdad souk than an
honest scientist in the field of climate research.


At least one poster to various cycling NGs is involved in that area,
and he seems willing to put money on some of the predictions you
don't like - he's called various climate-change deniers on their
proposed bets and discovered that they weren't nearly as sure about
their statements as they seemed.


Should be easy money!

http://ultimateglobalwarmingchallenge.com/

http://newsbusters.org/blogs/noel-sh...u-save-al-gore

http://theclimatebet.com/2007/06/16/...ing-challenge/

http://dubyadubya.wordpress.com/2007...a-climate-bet/

http://heartlandinstitutechicago.wor...ion-challenge/

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environmen...ngeenvironment

http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/arc...l_warming_bet/

Do keep us informed, Clive.


How about a) not repeating your bets and b) not including ones which aren't
about climate (your first few links).

Piers Corbyn, Richard Lindzen should get you enough info.


  #20  
Old January 6th 09, 12:26 AM posted to rec.bicycles.tech
Tim McNamara
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Default A GUIDE TO GLOBAL WARMING FOR THOSE EDUCATED IN THE UNIVERSITY OF LIFE

It's nice to see that right wing bile remains a constant in the universe.
 




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