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#11
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Any subject line in ALL CAPS is spam
On Jan 4, 9:28 am, Andre Jute wrote:
... a little simple calculation of how many acres could feed how many people... (such numbers stand on RBT from the Irish famine discussion only a few weeks ago)... A utterly (no, incredibly) OT thread, begun by Andre Jute for the apparent sole purpose of bragging how brilliant and clever he is, in which Andre presents an example of himself regaling others with (incorrect) "facts" pulled out of his a**, when in fact he did not know what he was talking about. |
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#12
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A GUIDE TO GLOBAL WARMING FOR THOSE EDUCATED IN THE UNIVERSITY OF LIFE
On 2009-01-04, Andre Jute wrote:
[...] A major test of a statistical model which presumes to predict the future is that it must, given a start date sometime in the past, accurately map the intervening known period. But none of the vaunted models of the future put forward by the IPCC as predictors of world temperature a century or two hence could map out the past reliably. These models fell down at many points and for many reasons. But, most strikingly, all fell down badly at two historical points. They are called the Medieval Warm Period, when for several centuries it was much warmer than it has been ever since, including in the 20th century, and the Little Ice Age, when shortly after the reign of Elizabeth the First and for the period covering the rise of the Industrial Revolution, people skated annually on the Thames. In most of the (pro-Global-Warming) TV documentaries I've seen, the Medieval warm period _was_ attributed to an extended solar minimum. The idea is less solar wind, more cosmic rays, more cloud formation, and it gets colder. It all goes into the computer model, and the more accurate its "hindcasting" the more reliable extrapolations from it into the future are supposed to be. This was always the case that was made. They present a graph that tracks the ice core data convincingly, and then diverges from about 1950, underestimating the temperature. Then they factor in manmade CO2 and hey presto it tracks perfectly again until the present day then shoots up in the near future. The main problem with it is just how accurate is the computer model? How much was it just "tweaked" to hindcast so accurately? It would be nice to have more direct evidence of the effect of CO2 in the atmosphere on climate. |
#13
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A GUIDE TO GLOBAL WARMING FOR THOSE EDUCATED IN THE UNIVERSITY OFLIFE
On Jan 4, 10:45*pm, Ben C wrote:
On 2009-01-04, Andre Jute wrote: [...] A major test of a statistical model which presumes to predict the future is that it must, given a start date sometime in the past, accurately map the intervening known period. But none of the vaunted models of the future put forward by the IPCC as predictors of world temperature a century or two hence could map out the past reliably. These models fell down at many points and for many reasons. But, most strikingly, all fell down badly at two historical points. They are called the Medieval Warm Period, when for several centuries it was much warmer than it has been ever since, including in the 20th century, and the Little Ice Age, when shortly after the reign of Elizabeth the First and for the period covering the rise of the Industrial Revolution, people skated annually on the Thames. In most of the (pro-Global-Warming) TV documentaries I've seen, the Medieval warm period _was_ attributed to an extended solar minimum. The idea is less solar wind, more cosmic rays, more cloud formation, and it gets colder. The beginning of the Little Ice Age corresponds with the Maunder Minimum in Sun surface activity. It all goes into the computer model, and the more accurate its "hindcasting" the more reliable extrapolations from it into the future are supposed to be. This was always the case that was made. They present a graph that tracks the ice core data convincingly, and then diverges from about 1950, underestimating the temperature. Then they factor in manmade CO2 and hey presto it tracks perfectly again until the present day then shoots up in the near future. The main problem with it is just how accurate is the computer model? Steve McIntyre, of the McIntyre & McKittrick team who exposed Mann's shoddy works, is a businessman and engineer. At one stage he complained that Mann's algorithm was so "highly tuned" (clearly a euphmism for crooked) that, fed with random noise, it would produce a hockey stick! It never seemed to have occurred to McIntyre, an upstanding, honest citizen, that Mann wasn't doing science but creating a political instrument that would speak in the desired tongue of his paymasters. But how can anyone trust the IPCC's models, which were tuned (let's keep it polite!) to track the Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age, and then retuned to track Mann's now disgraced flat hockey stick and to provide a peak at the end of the 20th century, and now that the MWP and LIA are reinstated, will be returned to track them again. A model that easy is anyone's whore. No wonder the IPCC and its "scientists" spread syphilis to the truth of whatever it touches. How much was it just "tweaked" to hindcast so accurately? It would be nice to have more direct evidence of the effect of CO2 in the atmosphere on climate. Yes. I would say much stronger than nice. Crucial. Essential. We don't know ****, those clowns at the IPCC have thoroughly muddied the waters with their political games, but we cannot even decide on a research strategy until we know something about the effect of CO2 in the atmosphere on climate. That will be a longterm study, none of this IPCC **** of announcing a startling conclusion before you've done the research. Sometimes I wonder if there are any climate scientists at all who remember how to do proper research. Actually, Michael Mann, with his gross transgression of the mores of decent scientific research, has probably done the entire scientific community a service by drawing attention to the self-serving lack of standards in the climate "sciences" and at the IPCC. It's easier to find an honest trader in the Baghdad souk than an honest scientist in the field of climate research. On RBT both the self-proclaimed "scientists", Chung and Weiner, were struck out for trying to cheat. Scientists, none for 2. That also means Truth, none for 2. Pity. Andre Jute Chipping away patiently at ignorance and prejudice |
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A GUIDE TO GLOBAL WARMING FOR THOSE EDUCATED IN THE UNIVERSITYOF LIFE
Andre Jute wrote:
snip non-bike tech please move to alt.global-warming. thanks. |
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A GUIDE TO GLOBAL WARMING FOR THOSE EDUCATED IN THE UNIVERSITY OF LIFE
Leo Lichtman wrote:
"Andre Jute" wrote: (clip) the global warming clowns (clip) ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ One of these "clowns" is President Elect Obama Ah, the man who used an EMPTY 767 to fly his family of 4 to Hawaii for 12 days of golf and other pressing matters of state. (Hell, at least this time they flew together; often Michelle travels separately from hubby.) Get a freaking clue, Leo. Bill "maybe it was a /hybrid/ 767" S. |
#16
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A GUIDE TO GLOBAL WARMING FOR THOSE EDUCATED IN THE UNIVERSITY OF LIFE
"Andre Jute" wrote in message
... Sometimes I wonder if there are any climate scientists at all who remember how to do proper research. ... It's easier to find an honest trader in the Baghdad souk than an honest scientist in the field of climate research. At least one poster to various cycling NGs is involved in that area, and he seems willing to put money on some of the predictions you don't like - he's called various climate-change deniers on their proposed bets and discovered that they weren't nearly as sure about their statements as they seemed. I merely not in passing that bestowing a Nobel Peace Prize on that hypocrite Al Gore diminished the Prize considerable in the eyes of many. Kissinger. But I guess you love him. |
#17
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A GUIDE TO GLOBAL WARMING FOR THOSE EDUCATED IN THE UNIVERSITYOF LIFE
Clive George wrote:
"Andre Jute" wrote in message ... Sometimes I wonder if there are any climate scientists at all who remember how to do proper research. .. It's easier to find an honest trader in the Baghdad souk than an honest scientist in the field of climate research. At least one poster to various cycling NGs is involved in that area, and he seems willing to put money on some of the predictions you don't like - he's called various climate-change deniers on their proposed bets and discovered that they weren't nearly as sure about their statements as they seemed. I merely not in passing that bestowing a Nobel Peace Prize on that hypocrite Al Gore diminished the Prize considerable in the eyes of many. Kissinger. But I guess you love him. Well, Mr. Jute is from the privileged elite, and not someone Kissinger would dismiss as a "worthless eater". -- Tom Sherman - 42.435731,-83.985007 LOCAL CACTUS EATS CYCLIST - datakoll |
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A GUIDE TO GLOBAL WARMING FOR THOSE EDUCATED IN THE UNIVERSITY OF LIFE
Clive George wrote:
"Andre Jute" wrote in message ... Sometimes I wonder if there are any climate scientists at all who remember how to do proper research. .. It's easier to find an honest trader in the Baghdad souk than an honest scientist in the field of climate research. At least one poster to various cycling NGs is involved in that area, and he seems willing to put money on some of the predictions you don't like - he's called various climate-change deniers on their proposed bets and discovered that they weren't nearly as sure about their statements as they seemed. Should be easy money! http://ultimateglobalwarmingchallenge.com/ http://newsbusters.org/blogs/noel-sh...u-save-al-gore http://theclimatebet.com/2007/06/16/...ing-challenge/ http://dubyadubya.wordpress.com/2007...a-climate-bet/ http://heartlandinstitutechicago.wor...ion-challenge/ http://www.guardian.co.uk/environmen...ngeenvironment http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/arc...l_warming_bet/ Do keep us informed, Clive. BS (called) |
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A GUIDE TO GLOBAL WARMING FOR THOSE EDUCATED IN THE UNIVERSITY OF LIFE
"Bill Sornson" wrote in message
... Clive George wrote: "Andre Jute" wrote in message ... Sometimes I wonder if there are any climate scientists at all who remember how to do proper research. .. It's easier to find an honest trader in the Baghdad souk than an honest scientist in the field of climate research. At least one poster to various cycling NGs is involved in that area, and he seems willing to put money on some of the predictions you don't like - he's called various climate-change deniers on their proposed bets and discovered that they weren't nearly as sure about their statements as they seemed. Should be easy money! http://ultimateglobalwarmingchallenge.com/ http://newsbusters.org/blogs/noel-sh...u-save-al-gore http://theclimatebet.com/2007/06/16/...ing-challenge/ http://dubyadubya.wordpress.com/2007...a-climate-bet/ http://heartlandinstitutechicago.wor...ion-challenge/ http://www.guardian.co.uk/environmen...ngeenvironment http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/arc...l_warming_bet/ Do keep us informed, Clive. How about a) not repeating your bets and b) not including ones which aren't about climate (your first few links). Piers Corbyn, Richard Lindzen should get you enough info. |
#20
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A GUIDE TO GLOBAL WARMING FOR THOSE EDUCATED IN THE UNIVERSITY OF LIFE
It's nice to see that right wing bile remains a constant in the universe.
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