#91
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More covid-19, was Wheels and tires
Sepp Ruf wrote:
John B. wrote: On Fri, 27 Mar 2020 21:39:44 -0700 (PDT), Tom Kunich wrote: On Friday, March 27, 2020 at 7:03:18 PM UTC-7, Frank Krygowski wrote: On Friday, March 27, 2020 at 9:58:50 PM UTC-4, AMuzi wrote: On 3/27/2020 8:49 PM, John B. wrote: On Fri, 27 Mar 2020 17:07:41 -0700 (PDT), Tom Kunich wrote: Turns out that in Italy with 9,134 deaths they only indicate that 600 of them are due to Covid-19 and the rest of them to pre-existing health condition which were exacerbated by the virus and the crummy Italian socialized medical system could not deal with. The US now has the supposed highest number of "confirmed infections". However, they are only testing people over 65 with certain severe pre-existing health problems so again, the statistics miss 80% of the infected population. And yet this still gives us only 1.4% mortality rates. I finally found a reference to the seasonal flu. It has a 3.83% mortality rate or 3 times that of Covid-19. Moreover the seasonal flu kills babies 5 and under and expecting mothers and mothers who have given birth less than 6 months previous to the flu. Since there is NO immunity in the entire population to Covid-19 this is an exceptionally low mortality rate when compared to the seasonal flu. 80% of the population is vaccinated yearly for the flu and most of the population have at least some immunity to it from previous infections. According to the moronic Great Frankini and his pinhead supporters actual knowledge doesn't count for anything; fear and loathing is everything. Don't worry Frankini - the term, "Up your nose with a rubber hose" will hold an entirely new meaning for you after this raging murderous plague has passed. As usual Tommy has missed the mark. His assertion that only 600 deaths in Italy are due to the virus is somewhat at odds with what the Italian Government has announced - that (Last updated: March 28, 2020, 01:23 GMT) there have been 9,134 deaths due to the virus. I leave it up to the individual whether he/she/it believes Tom, or the Government of Italy. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries As for mortality rate, it is too early to actually calculate but of the 435,949 Currently Infected Patients some 23,519 (5%) are classified Serious or Critical. Of the 160,400 cases which had an outcome some 133,057 (83%) were classified as Recovered / Discharged and 27,343 (17%) died. Again, I leave it up to the individual whether he/she/it believes Tom, or a somewhat more authoritative source. That's funny! Credibility of The Italian Government! Now there's a low bar. Yes, I can see why the Italian government might lie just to make Tom look bad. - Frank Krygowski Or you can post lies repeatedly to make anyone else look bad. You're sort of an equal opportunity jerk. Hey, we can't help it if you don't have any friends. "Age, however, doesn’t tell the whole story about who is at risk of severe disease. In fact, it reveals the underlying vulnerabilities in the wider population to an illness like Covid-19. Many of these factors are concentrated among older adults, but younger people with certain underlying health problems are also at risk. (Sixty percent of Americans have at least one chronic condition; 40 percent have more than one.) " https://www.vox.com/2020/3/12/211737...lderly-seniors It's coming to get you - even the Great Frankini. I find it interesting that above you state that , "Turns out that in Italy with 9,134 deaths they only indicate that 600 of them are due to Covid-1" and now after I point out that this is a lie you now change your tune and sing a wholly different song. Back to facts: Italy tests the dead, if positive for the Wuhan virus, a death is automatically recorded as CAUSED by it. There is no second category 'tested Wuhan positive, but other, or unknown, cause of death.' Source: Agnello Borelli, Head of Civil Protection of Italy. Wash your hands and bikes, shave your stupid beards, and wear your masks, NY "Corona Courier" messengers! https://datagraver.com/thumbs/1300x1...-mil2-2703.png Hmmm... if I had to guess at factors correlated to a low rate of infection, it would be: 1) Government decides to do something about it 2) People in country actually follow government orders Strike 2, USA. “Life, liberty, and the pursuit of fast spreading viral infections.” |
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#92
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Wheels and tires
On Thu, 26 Mar 2020 18:59:10 -0500, AMuzi wrote:
On 3/26/2020 3:23 PM, Tim McNamara wrote: On Thu, 26 Mar 2020 09:23:43 +0700, John B wrote: As for "hair on fire"... hardly :-) "Hair on fire" is Fox Newsspeak for anyone saying they don't think Trump is the Greatest President in Human history, especially criticism based on what Trump actually says instead of what he and his supporters pretend he said. Covfefe! It was a perfect call! And you should believe Vladimir over American intelligence professionals, he only has our best interests at heart. I take no position as it's very early in this thing. Too early for an afternoon of tea and medals, too early to hang the inept. But I did note the hue and cry about 'fascism' when we were the first country to restrict travel from China in January. The concerns about fascism predated COVID-19 by several years. |
#93
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Wheels and tires
On Thu, 26 Mar 2020 22:13:13 -0500, AMuzi wrote:
Indeed, from small business owners to generals in the field to Presidents, one assembles hopefully competent advisors, takes their counsel but at the end a decision must be made. Something this President has been loath to do, because in his narcissism he believes he knows better than everyone else. |
#94
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Wheels and tires
Tim McNamara writes:
On Thu, 26 Mar 2020 22:13:13 -0500, AMuzi wrote: Indeed, from small business owners to generals in the field to Presidents, one assembles hopefully competent advisors, takes their counsel but at the end a decision must be made. Something this President has been loath to do, because in his narcissism he believes he knows better than everyone else. According to Dr. Fauci. "The president has listened to what I have said and what the other people on the task force have said. When I have made recommendations he has taken them," Fauci added. "The idea of just pitting one against the other is just not helpful." Trump isn't a shining example of how to be president. But in this case he really does seem to be doing what competent advisers suggest. The decline and fall of the American empire neither started with Trump nor will it end with him. -- |
#95
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Wheels and tires
On 3/28/2020 6:48 PM, Radey Shouman wrote:
Tim McNamara writes: On Thu, 26 Mar 2020 22:13:13 -0500, AMuzi wrote: Indeed, from small business owners to generals in the field to Presidents, one assembles hopefully competent advisors, takes their counsel but at the end a decision must be made. Something this President has been loath to do, because in his narcissism he believes he knows better than everyone else. According to Dr. Fauci. "The president has listened to what I have said and what the other people on the task force have said. When I have made recommendations he has taken them," Fauci added. "The idea of just pitting one against the other is just not helpful." Trump isn't a shining example of how to be president. But in this case he really does seem to be doing what competent advisers suggest. "In this case" since when? Certainly not since January! Again: “Are there worries about a pandemic at this point?” Jan. 22 – “No. Not at all. And we have it totally under control.” Jan. 24 – “It will all work out well.” Jan. 30 – “We have it very well under control. We have very little problem in this country at the moment – five. And those people are all recuperating successfully.” Feb. 10 – “Looks like by April, you know, in theory, when it gets a little warmer, it miraculously goes away.” Feb. 19 – “I think the numbers are getting progressively better as we go.” Feb. 20 – “…within a couple of days, is going to be down to close to zero.” Feb. 22 – “We have it very much under control in this country.” Feb. 25 – “…the Democrats are politicizing the coronavirus… They tried the impeachment hoax … and this is their new hoax.” Feb. 26 – “We’re going down, not up.” Feb. 27 – “It’s going to disappear. One day like a miracle – it will disappear.” Feb. 29 – “Everything is really under control.” (The vaccine will be available) “very rapidly.” March 2 – “It’s very mild.” March 4 – “…we’re talking about very small numbers in the United States.” March 6 – “I like this stuff. I really get it. People are surprised I understand it. Every one of these doctors said, ‘How do you know so much about this?’ Maybe I have a natural ability.’ Maybe I should have done that instead of running for president.” Maybe. March 6: “Anybody who wants a test can get a test. That’s the bottom line.” March 7: “I’m not concerned at all. No, we’ve done a great job with it.” March 10 – “It will go away. Just stay calm. It will go away.” March 16 – (on his own performance) “I’d rate it a ten.” March 17 – “I felt it was a pandemic long before it was called a pandemic.” And since then? "I feel good about it. That's all it is. Just a feeling. You know, I'm a smart guy." No matter what's said by those who are, you know, actually educated. https://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-...eling-n1166566 -- - Frank Krygowski |
#96
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Coronavirus, was Wheels and tires
On Sat, 28 Mar 2020 15:04:05 +0000 (UTC), Ralph Barone
wrote: John B. wrote: On Fri, 27 Mar 2020 16:01:43 -0400, Radey Shouman wrote: AMuzi writes: On 3/26/2020 9:44 PM, John B. wrote: tOn Thu, 26 Mar 2020 20:10:31 -0500, AMuzi wrote: On 3/26/2020 7:40 PM, John B. wrote: On Thu, 26 Mar 2020 20:09:24 +0000 (UTC), Ralph Barone wrote: Radey Shouman wrote: Ralph Barone writes: John B. wrote: On Wed, 25 Mar 2020 19:26:32 -0500, AMuzi wrote: On 3/25/2020 12:43 PM, Tom Kunich wrote: [snip on-topic bicycle stuff] On Tuesday, March 24, 2020 at 3:18:09 PM UTC-7, Joerg wrote: I can't figure out what Newsome thinks he's doing saying that a couple of weeks from now isn't long enough to keep businesses shut down. Its been two weeks already and in another couple of weeks all of the restaurants, the largest business sector, will be dead. If your auntie was Nancy Pelosi, you could try your hand at being Governor too! Given that the virus "new case" rate in the U.S. is now the highest in the world (as of March 26, 2020, 00:12 GMT) the question of whether the restaurants go out of business because of a shutdown or whether they go out of business because their customers catch the virus is probably immaterial. -- cheers, John B. It?s a tough call. Either way people are going to be uncomfortable or die, but my guesses are with the shutdown being the better choice. Considering that pandemics are just compound interest with a very high interest rate and a very short compounding period (take out a loan at 250% interest per week and tell me how that works out for you), I?m surprised at the lack of serious response from the guy running things south of 49. Interesting analogy. Going a bit further, it seems immunity and bankruptcy are two sides of the same coin, while death works the same for both compounded debts and pandemic illness. Looks like we elected an experience-qualified guy after all. I guess, except his ?go-to? move is declaring bankruptcy and letting the other people deal with the mess. So, if you?re paying 250% a week interest on a loan, when is a good time to start selling stuff on Craigslist for a two week repayment program? The correct answer is As Soon As You Borrowed The Money. The second best answer is Right ****ing Now! Perhaps an even better solution is "don't borrow money at 250% a week". That would be, 1100% over one year :-) -- cheers, John B. Mr Slocumb- You have many skills but this isn't one of them. Taking a $100 loan at 250% per week for 52 weeks on a regular amortization table sums to: $1 397 688 109 531 440 000 000 000 000 000.00 Compound interest is a powerful thing, underestimated by borrowers in every era, in every place. Which demonstrates that, at least for me, my policy of never borrowing money is the correct one :-) But are you sure? I just calculated it and I get $49,303,806,576,313,200,000,000.00 :-) -- cheers, John B. Simple or compounded weekly? For compounded weekly I get: $1,956,991,596,955,520,295,245,474,499,646 after 52 weeks. This value is not exact, I rounded to the nearest dollar every week. This is of the same order of magnitude as Mr. Muzi's figure, but not up to accounting standards. I suspect that Mr. Slocomb computed 100 * 2.50^52, for which I get: $49,303,806,576,313,241,698,304 This is also not exact, as I used floating point arithmetic. It's pretty close to the same as his figure, however. The base of 2.50 is not right, though, as that would imply a mere 150% interest rate. The correct calculation of 100 * 3.50^52 gives: $1,956,763,353,344,008,803,942,544,703,488 again using floating point. Again, in the ballpark of Mr. Muzi's. Either number is large enough (shoot! $10 is pretty big, isn't it) that my life long theory to NEVER borrow money seems vindicated :-) -- cheers, John B. If you can get away with never borrowing money, thats great. However, for certain things like housing, youre mostly stuck doing it and you just need to do it wisely. If your mortgage payments are in the same as what your rent would have been, and you have sufficient monetary buffer room, borrowing can be a good move. Well, I was lucky, in a sense, in that I spent the majority of my married life in Military furnished housing so by the time I had retired from the Air Force I had a pretty good stash saved. And, to be honest, I did borrow some money when I bought the house... from my parents, interest free :-( But I digress. Note that the original point of my analogy was not to make people conclude that borrowing money is bad. It was to show that the same exponential functions describe compound interest and the first part of a pandemic, and that in both cases, if the growth rate is high enough, you need to act decisively in the early stages, or things spiral out of control very quickly. I spent almost 10 years of my military career stationed in Japan where there wasn't any credit, at least for Servicemen, and my parents (standard grade New Englanders) had brained washed me, since the time I could walk, that money had a value, and I remember when I came back to the States some credit company talked the Air Base into letting them address the multitudes :-) I stood there and listened to what seemed to being described as the "second coming". Now, you can borrow money... Whoopee! I was aghast, firstly that the Military had let them on the base and secondly that anyone could possible believe such stuff.... Unfortunately a great many did/do believe it :-( -- cheers, John B. |
#97
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Wheels and tires
On Sat, 28 Mar 2020 19:15:12 -0400, Frank Krygowski
wrote: On 3/28/2020 6:48 PM, Radey Shouman wrote: Tim McNamara writes: On Thu, 26 Mar 2020 22:13:13 -0500, AMuzi wrote: Indeed, from small business owners to generals in the field to Presidents, one assembles hopefully competent advisors, takes their counsel but at the end a decision must be made. Something this President has been loath to do, because in his narcissism he believes he knows better than everyone else. According to Dr. Fauci. "The president has listened to what I have said and what the other people on the task force have said. When I have made recommendations he has taken them," Fauci added. "The idea of just pitting one against the other is just not helpful." Trump isn't a shining example of how to be president. But in this case he really does seem to be doing what competent advisers suggest. "In this case" since when? Certainly not since January! Again: Are there worries about a pandemic at this point? Jan. 22 No. Not at all. And we have it totally under control. Jan. 24 It will all work out well. Jan. 30 We have it very well under control. We have very little problem in this country at the moment five. And those people are all recuperating successfully. Feb. 10 Looks like by April, you know, in theory, when it gets a little warmer, it miraculously goes away. Feb. 19 I think the numbers are getting progressively better as we go. Feb. 20 within a couple of days, is going to be down to close to zero. Feb. 22 We have it very much under control in this country. Feb. 25 the Democrats are politicizing the coronavirus They tried the impeachment hoax and this is their new hoax. Feb. 26 Were going down, not up. Feb. 27 Its going to disappear. One day like a miracle it will disappear. Feb. 29 Everything is really under control. (The vaccine will be available) very rapidly. March 2 Its very mild. March 4 were talking about very small numbers in the United States. March 6 I like this stuff. I really get it. People are surprised I understand it. Every one of these doctors said, How do you know so much about this? Maybe I have a natural ability. Maybe I should have done that instead of running for president. Maybe. March 6: Anybody who wants a test can get a test. Thats the bottom line. March 7: Im not concerned at all. No, weve done a great job with it. March 10 It will go away. Just stay calm. It will go away. March 16 (on his own performance) Id rate it a ten. March 17 I felt it was a pandemic long before it was called a pandemic. And since then? "I feel good about it. That's all it is. Just a feeling. You know, I'm a smart guy." No matter what's said by those who are, you know, actually educated. https://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-...eling-n1166566 The Economic Policy Institute (which is a privately funded 'think-tank') estimates that some 14 million jobs could be lost by summer 2020. https://www.usnews.com/news/best-sta...sses-by-summer By states: California - Projected job loss:1,609,975 Washington - 317,721 Ohio - 505,380 Illinois - 551,061 and so on. -- cheers, John B. |
#98
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Wheels and tires
Frank Krygowski writes:
On 3/28/2020 6:48 PM, Radey Shouman wrote: Tim McNamara writes: On Thu, 26 Mar 2020 22:13:13 -0500, AMuzi wrote: Indeed, from small business owners to generals in the field to Presidents, one assembles hopefully competent advisors, takes their counsel but at the end a decision must be made. Something this President has been loath to do, because in his narcissism he believes he knows better than everyone else. According to Dr. Fauci. "The president has listened to what I have said and what the other people on the task force have said. When I have made recommendations he has taken them," Fauci added. "The idea of just pitting one against the other is just not helpful." Trump isn't a shining example of how to be president. But in this case he really does seem to be doing what competent advisers suggest. "In this case" since when? Certainly not since January! I guess I don't see your inside information on what his advisers told him at those points. Again: “Are there worries about a pandemic at this point?” Jan. 22 – “No. Not at all. And we have it totally under control.” Jan. 24 – “It will all work out well.” Jan. 30 – “We have it very well under control. We have very little problem in this country at the moment – five. And those people are all recuperating successfully.” Feb. 10 – “Looks like by April, you know, in theory, when it gets a little warmer, it miraculously goes away.” Feb. 19 – “I think the numbers are getting progressively better as we go.” Feb. 20 – “…within a couple of days, is going to be down to close to zero.” Feb. 22 – “We have it very much under control in this country.” Feb. 25 – “…the Democrats are politicizing the coronavirus… They tried the impeachment hoax … and this is their new hoax.” Feb. 26 – “We’re going down, not up.” Feb. 27 – “It’s going to disappear. One day like a miracle – it will disappear.” Feb. 29 – “Everything is really under control.” (The vaccine will be available) “very rapidly.” March 2 – “It’s very mild.” March 4 – “…we’re talking about very small numbers in the United States.” March 6 – “I like this stuff. I really get it. People are surprised I understand it. Every one of these doctors said, ‘How do you know so much about this?’ Maybe I have a natural ability.’ Maybe I should have done that instead of running for president.” Maybe. March 6: “Anybody who wants a test can get a test. That’s the bottom line.” March 7: “I’m not concerned at all. No, we’ve done a great job with it.” March 10 – “It will go away. Just stay calm. It will go away.” March 16 – (on his own performance) “I’d rate it a ten.” March 17 – “I felt it was a pandemic long before it was called a pandemic.” And since then? "I feel good about it. That's all it is. Just a feeling. You know, I'm a smart guy." No matter what's said by those who are, you know, actually educated. https://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-...eling-n1166566 -- |
#99
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Wheels and tires
On 3/28/2020 9:05 PM, Radey Shouman wrote:
Frank Krygowski writes: On 3/28/2020 6:48 PM, Radey Shouman wrote: Tim McNamara writes: On Thu, 26 Mar 2020 22:13:13 -0500, AMuzi wrote: Indeed, from small business owners to generals in the field to Presidents, one assembles hopefully competent advisors, takes their counsel but at the end a decision must be made. Something this President has been loath to do, because in his narcissism he believes he knows better than everyone else. According to Dr. Fauci. "The president has listened to what I have said and what the other people on the task force have said. When I have made recommendations he has taken them," Fauci added. "The idea of just pitting one against the other is just not helpful." Trump isn't a shining example of how to be president. But in this case he really does seem to be doing what competent advisers suggest. "In this case" since when? Certainly not since January! Again: “Are there worries about a pandemic at this point?” Jan. 22 – “No. Not at all. And we have it totally under control.” Jan. 24 – “It will all work out well.” Jan. 30 – “We have it very well under control. We have very little problem in this country at the moment – five. And those people are all recuperating successfully.” Feb. 10 – “Looks like by April, you know, in theory, when it gets a little warmer, it miraculously goes away.” Feb. 19 – “I think the numbers are getting progressively better as we go.” Feb. 20 – “…within a couple of days, is going to be down to close to zero.” Feb. 22 – “We have it very much under control in this country.” Feb. 25 – “…the Democrats are politicizing the coronavirus… They tried the impeachment hoax … and this is their new hoax.” Feb. 26 – “We’re going down, not up.” Feb. 27 – “It’s going to disappear. One day like a miracle – it will disappear.” Feb. 29 – “Everything is really under control.” (The vaccine will be available) “very rapidly.” March 2 – “It’s very mild.” March 4 – “…we’re talking about very small numbers in the United States.” March 6 – “I like this stuff. I really get it. People are surprised I understand it. Every one of these doctors said, ‘How do you know so much about this?’ Maybe I have a natural ability.’ Maybe I should have done that instead of running for president.” Maybe. March 6: “Anybody who wants a test can get a test. That’s the bottom line.” March 7: “I’m not concerned at all. No, we’ve done a great job with it.” March 10 – “It will go away. Just stay calm. It will go away.” March 16 – (on his own performance) “I’d rate it a ten.” March 17 – “I felt it was a pandemic long before it was called a pandemic.” And since then? "I feel good about it. That's all it is. Just a feeling. You know, I'm a smart guy." No matter what's said by those who are, you know, actually educated. https://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-...eling-n1166566 I guess I don't see your inside information on what his advisers told him at those points. Correlate the above statements with this information: https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2020...-cdc-timeline/ It requires some serious cognitive dissonance to believe Trump was in sync with the CDC, etc. during all that time. Even now, he blathers at the microphone, then those with actual expertise step up to carefully and diplomatically "rephrase," to give actual facts. -- - Frank Krygowski |
#100
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Wheels and tires
On 3/28/2020 5:36 PM, Tim McNamara wrote:
On Thu, 26 Mar 2020 18:59:10 -0500, AMuzi wrote: On 3/26/2020 3:23 PM, Tim McNamara wrote: On Thu, 26 Mar 2020 09:23:43 +0700, John B wrote: As for "hair on fire"... hardly :-) "Hair on fire" is Fox Newsspeak for anyone saying they don't think Trump is the Greatest President in Human history, especially criticism based on what Trump actually says instead of what he and his supporters pretend he said. Covfefe! It was a perfect call! And you should believe Vladimir over American intelligence professionals, he only has our best interests at heart. I take no position as it's very early in this thing. Too early for an afternoon of tea and medals, too early to hang the inept. But I did note the hue and cry about 'fascism' when we were the first country to restrict travel from China in January. The concerns about fascism predated COVID-19 by several years. But the Chinese virus is actually real. -- Andrew Muzi www.yellowjersey.org/ Open every day since 1 April, 1971 |
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