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#251
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Safety inflation
On 4/13/2021 1:13 AM, John B. wrote:
On Mon, 12 Apr 2021 22:31:49 -0400, Frank Krygowski wrote: On 4/12/2021 9:37 PM, John B. wrote: On Mon, 12 Apr 2021 12:47:43 -0400, Frank Krygowski wrote: Taking your response from bottom to top: I have certainly NOT ignored that half of bike crashes are cyclists' fault. I've agreed many times. That's one reason I'm such a proponent of cycling education. Well, I looked it up and in 2021 it is estimated that some 70% of the U.S. population has, or will have, a auto driver's license and as these people have to, I believe in all states, be tested in the traffic code as well as the ability to drive it would seem that most people do know the traffic code. But cyclists require further training? I'd say so. Licenses or no, far too many people think they can do whatever they want on a bike - that rules don't apply. After all, you're the one whose most frequently said half of deaths are the cyclists' fault. Be careful not to argue against yourself. I don't believe that I am. The most common reason for bicycle caused collisions in the L.S. study was riding the wrong way. Does one require a master's degree in bicycle riding to know that it is bad joss to ride the wrong way ? Choosing the proper side of the road involves just the most basic knowledge, not a master's degree. But it's still quite common to see wrong way cyclists. It's common enough that the behavior has a nickname: "Salmon riding." I've certainly seen plenty of it, and can give many interesting anecdotes, if you like. To illustrate: Many years ago I and several other members of our bike club arranged to do Bike Safety talks at some middle school assemblies. After the very first one, we had an outraged parent come up to us and angrily chew us out, saying "Don't you dare tell my kid to ride on the right side of the road! He's supposed to ride where he can see the cars coming!" Or I can tell about the young engineer (one of my former students) commuting to work who was stopped by a cop and forced to ride facing traffic. Or the young punk who turned around and chased me on his bike after I chewed him out for riding wrong way straight at me... and more. We've gotten enough argument on that point that our club has a handout explaining _why_ bicyclists are supposed to ride with traffic, not facing it. But about education - This popped up in my news feed today: https://www.straitstimes.com/singapo...sts-as-part-of -- - Frank Krygowski |
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#252
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Eyc headlight problem
On 4/13/2021 6:45 AM, Ralph Barone wrote:
snip There are certainly a broad range of people calling themselves “electrical engineers”, and the RF guys don’t know about power, and the digital guys don’t really know analog. Maybe things have changed since I graduated but EEs had to at least take entry level courses in all of the specialties. Digital guys all took power courses and vice-versa. And we all took analog courses. We also all took thermodynamics, and statics and dynamics. One of my high school friends couldn't decide between art and electrical engineering as a major. He chose EE. He was super-smart academically but he could not design anything or repair anything, it just wasn't his forte. |
#253
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Safety inflation
On Tuesday, April 13, 2021 at 9:52:23 a.m. UTC-4, Frank Krygowski wrote:
On 4/13/2021 1:13 AM, John B. wrote: On Mon, 12 Apr 2021 22:31:49 -0400, Frank Krygowski wrote: On 4/12/2021 9:37 PM, John B. wrote: On Mon, 12 Apr 2021 12:47:43 -0400, Frank Krygowski wrote: Taking your response from bottom to top: I have certainly NOT ignored that half of bike crashes are cyclists' fault. I've agreed many times. That's one reason I'm such a proponent of cycling education. Well, I looked it up and in 2021 it is estimated that some 70% of the U.S. population has, or will have, a auto driver's license and as these people have to, I believe in all states, be tested in the traffic code as well as the ability to drive it would seem that most people do know the traffic code. But cyclists require further training? I'd say so. Licenses or no, far too many people think they can do whatever they want on a bike - that rules don't apply. After all, you're the one whose most frequently said half of deaths are the cyclists' fault. Be careful not to argue against yourself. I don't believe that I am. The most common reason for bicycle caused collisions in the L.S. study was riding the wrong way. Does one require a master's degree in bicycle riding to know that it is bad joss to ride the wrong way ? Choosing the proper side of the road involves just the most basic knowledge, not a master's degree. But it's still quite common to see wrong way cyclists. It's common enough that the behavior has a nickname: "Salmon riding." I've certainly seen plenty of it, and can give many interesting anecdotes, if you like. To illustrate: Many years ago I and several other members of our bike club arranged to do Bike Safety talks at some middle school assemblies. After the very first one, we had an outraged parent come up to us and angrily chew us out, saying "Don't you dare tell my kid to ride on the right side of the road! He's supposed to ride where he can see the cars coming!" Or I can tell about the young engineer (one of my former students) commuting to work who was stopped by a cop and forced to ride facing traffic. Or the young punk who turned around and chased me on his bike after I chewed him out for riding wrong way straight at me... and more. We've gotten enough argument on that point that our club has a handout explaining _why_ bicyclists are supposed to ride with traffic, not facing it. But about education - This popped up in my news feed today: https://www.straitstimes.com/singapo...sts-as-part-of -- - Frank Krygowski In the fall of 1989 I moved to the city where I lived. In the time since then I have seen TWO bicyclists riding on the wrong side of the road. Even on the road that's posted ONE WAY, BICYCLISTS EXCEPTED, I have yet to see a bicyclist riding counter to the traffic. Cheers |
#254
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Safety inflation
On Monday, April 12, 2021 at 9:15:56 AM UTC-7, Frank Krygowski wrote:
On 4/11/2021 7:17 PM, jbeattie wrote: On Sunday, April 11, 2021 at 11:40:31 AM UTC-7, Frank Krygowski wrote: As I have to emphasize time and time again, I'm not telling people not to use a DRL, not to wear a helmet, not to wear day-glo clothing and so on. What troubles me are the claims that "anyone with a brain" will make those currently fashionable choices. Imposing ever-increasing "safety" recommendations adds to the perceived danger of bicycling. That's the opposite of promoting cycling. Will the sky someday fall, in Jay's words? More realistically, will laws mandate those measures? Well, helmets are mandatory for essentially everyone in at least two countries, with fines up near $400 in some areas. They're mandatory for kids in many U.S. states and for adults in some areas. Day-glo vests must be carried by cyclists in France and be worn under certain conditions. Blinking taillights are required by at least some bike clubs for daytime riding. The Oregon under 16 MHL is the source of the prohibition on offering evidence of the non-wearing of helmet as evidence of comparative fault. Assuming there were some law mandating a DRL on bicycles (there isn't one for cars in Oregon), it is reasonable to assume that it would protect cyclists from claims of comparative fault based on the using of a DRL. Your point seems to be that if a law mandating helmets or DRLs (or day-glo vests or safety flags or electric horns?) has a comparative fault exception, it's just fine. I disagree strongly. There are many other detriments to such laws, and even to promotions of those measures. My point is that every time we add an item to the list of things "you really need to be safe on a bike" we increase the perception of bicycling's danger. Not only are most of those things ineffective wastes of money, they add to the image of bicycling as an extreme activity, one that normally prudent people should avoid. That imposes all sorts of societal costs. Also, what you are proposing is a ban on DRLs to avoid them becoming the "standard of care." Bull****. I never once proposed banning those things. I said precisely the opposite. But I'd prefer an (unattainable) ideal world in which promotional propaganda was actually factual, accurate and given in proper context. My defense against getting hit is avoiding skulking in the gutter. I almost always ride where motorists are looking, as specifically allowed by state law. I also stay aware of traffic interactions and potential conflicts. Those tactics have worked perfectly for almost 50 years now, in dozens of states and nearly a dozen foreign countries. Gutter bunnies get right hooked and left crossed because they are inconspicuous, then they buy talismans for protection - DRLs, bike flags, electric horns, day-glo vests and more. WTF is "skulking in the gutter"? How do you even ride in the gutter? Are you saying AFRAP is skulking in the gutter -- even though it is required by law? Get serious. You're a lawyer. You know the "P" stands for "practicable" not "possible." "Practicable" includes the ability to do it without endangering oneself. Endangering oneself how? Riding toward the right? If there are no obstacles, why not let traffic flow around? One does not need to be in the middle of the road all the time. If cars can pass safely, I let them pass -- why not? And unless your riding universe is completely different from mine, you will have seen plenty of cyclists literally riding in the gutter. You'll have seen even more skimming the very edge of a 10 foot lane to let an 8 foot truck squeeze by with inches to spare. You'll have seen countless cyclists riding in the door zone. Take the lane when you need it -- and be careful if you are riding in the door zone. Pre-plague, I did that all the time to avoid stopped traffic. It's harder these days with blacked-out windows, but I'm not going to sit around behind a line of stopped traffic. BTW, the gutter is like 8" wide with a curb. Try actually riding in a gutter. Most of our roads don't even have gutters. There is just a curb or nothing. The only times I see cyclists in actual gutters is when they're trying to squeeze around cars and other obstacles. None of those behaviors are required by law, and all those are strongly discouraged in any legitimate cycling education program. Yet I'd bet dollars to donuts that we have posters here who don't get the idea. They think they have to never inconvenience a motorist no matter what, so they ride at the far edge of the lane. In that position they aren't noticed because they're not where motorists normally look. They're lost among the background clutter, or (for motorists pulling out from the right) they're hidden behind parked cars. This is basic! It's probably covered in this online course: https://cyclingsavvy.org/courses/ess...-short-course/ I learned that stuff when I was seven years old in a mandatory education class after being busted for riding my bike the wrong way down the road in front of the police station. Even at the time, I knew I was breaking the law, and I learned an important lesson. Don't break the law in front of the police station. People who don't get this seem to have _far_ more close calls. They then complain about how dangerous bicycling is. They tout their glaring lights, their flags, their hats that saved their lives three times, their "protected" lanes that hide them even worse, and they claim that more and more such garbage is needed every year to be "safe." As a couple of data points, I've been hit maybe a half-dozen times and never while skulking in the gutter. I was lane center riding the speed of traffic when someone turned in front of me. Nice ride to the hospital in an ambulance. I was doing the same thing when some one pulled out from my right for no reason. I got hooked by a mail truck. I got rear-ended by a bus while in the middle of the f****** lane. People do stupid sh**. People do stupid ****. But people do less stupid **** to riders who are positioned so they are visible. You improve your odds when you move away from the edge - assuming, as on most roads, that there is not room to safely share the lane. Can you picture two normal curves? Each one representing the probability of a rider's car-bike crash. Neither one has absolute zero probability (the far left tail of the curve). But the curves are shifted laterally from each other. The rider who hugs the edge has more chance of getting hit, and the reasons should be obvious to a person who can visualize lines of sight and lane dimensions. Hit how? If I had been hugging the edge of the road and riding in the door-handle zone, that bus may have missed me. Riding lane center may increase the chance of getting hit depending on the road and type of collision. I ascend to the far right on this road because it is the other side of a blind turn and being far right makes me more visible -- and I can bail out if some idiot comes drifting around the corner from either direction. https://www.nolifelikethislife.com/w...e_Newberry.jpg Look out for these guys! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=obUn...nel=DonutMedia That was a really nice climb before they clear cut it. Picture a van parked just east of a driveway. Picture a cyclist riding west, skimming along within three feet of the van (and wishing the bike lane were next to the curb in the passenger side door zone instead of in the driver side door zone). Can you picture a motorist trying to pull out of the driveway and hitting the cyclist? That should be easy. If the van blocked the motorist's view of the cyclist without a DRL, it would have blocked his view of the cyclist with a DRL. The DRL not only didn't help, it may give the cyclist false confidence and increase his danger. It's an ineffective kluge. Not that I'm a big DRL fan, but in that scenario, you're concerned about being conspicuous. Why not be even more conspicuous with a DRL? Or a flippy flag or a fluorescent vomit jersey? Proud note on DRLs: on Sunday I went for a 40 mile ride with my wife. She was on her eBike, and I was on my super-duper better-than-Tom's Emonda. She's a former racer and now an old lady with a neurologic disorder. I had been doing lunch-length rides with her up into to the West Hills, but she wanted to do a longer ride, and we did. We were ten miles from home with lots of hills, and she was running out of power . . . and then I noticed her light was on the whole time. Shut it off! Thank god -- saved enough juice to get her home. DRLs can be dangerous. And on a bicycle safety point, I was doubly happy that she was O.K. in traffic -- and on a sunny Sunday, there were lots of people out in the country. Riding where we ride, just being on the road is taking the lane, and the PU pin-heads in the hinterland can be super aggressive, but I think they act differently around an old lady on an ebike. We were on the Clackamas River. https://tinyurl.com/3yf4upa4 Further toward town, but I like that picture. For that ride, my wife would need a second battery. -- Jay Beattie. |
#255
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Safety inflation
On 4/13/2021 11:48 AM, jbeattie wrote:
On Monday, April 12, 2021 at 9:15:56 AM UTC-7, Frank Krygowski wrote: On 4/11/2021 7:17 PM, jbeattie wrote: On Sunday, April 11, 2021 at 11:40:31 AM UTC-7, Frank Krygowski wrote: As I have to emphasize time and time again, I'm not telling people not to use a DRL, not to wear a helmet, not to wear day-glo clothing and so on. What troubles me are the claims that "anyone with a brain" will make those currently fashionable choices. Imposing ever-increasing "safety" recommendations adds to the perceived danger of bicycling. That's the opposite of promoting cycling. Will the sky someday fall, in Jay's words? More realistically, will laws mandate those measures? Well, helmets are mandatory for essentially everyone in at least two countries, with fines up near $400 in some areas. They're mandatory for kids in many U.S. states and for adults in some areas. Day-glo vests must be carried by cyclists in France and be worn under certain conditions. Blinking taillights are required by at least some bike clubs for daytime riding. The Oregon under 16 MHL is the source of the prohibition on offering evidence of the non-wearing of helmet as evidence of comparative fault. Assuming there were some law mandating a DRL on bicycles (there isn't one for cars in Oregon), it is reasonable to assume that it would protect cyclists from claims of comparative fault based on the using of a DRL. Your point seems to be that if a law mandating helmets or DRLs (or day-glo vests or safety flags or electric horns?) has a comparative fault exception, it's just fine. I disagree strongly. There are many other detriments to such laws, and even to promotions of those measures. My point is that every time we add an item to the list of things "you really need to be safe on a bike" we increase the perception of bicycling's danger. Not only are most of those things ineffective wastes of money, they add to the image of bicycling as an extreme activity, one that normally prudent people should avoid. That imposes all sorts of societal costs. Also, what you are proposing is a ban on DRLs to avoid them becoming the "standard of care." Bull****. I never once proposed banning those things. I said precisely the opposite. But I'd prefer an (unattainable) ideal world in which promotional propaganda was actually factual, accurate and given in proper context. My defense against getting hit is avoiding skulking in the gutter. I almost always ride where motorists are looking, as specifically allowed by state law. I also stay aware of traffic interactions and potential conflicts. Those tactics have worked perfectly for almost 50 years now, in dozens of states and nearly a dozen foreign countries. Gutter bunnies get right hooked and left crossed because they are inconspicuous, then they buy talismans for protection - DRLs, bike flags, electric horns, day-glo vests and more. WTF is "skulking in the gutter"? How do you even ride in the gutter? Are you saying AFRAP is skulking in the gutter -- even though it is required by law? Get serious. You're a lawyer. You know the "P" stands for "practicable" not "possible." "Practicable" includes the ability to do it without endangering oneself. Endangering oneself how? Riding toward the right? If there are no obstacles, why not let traffic flow around? One does not need to be in the middle of the road all the time. If cars can pass safely, I let them pass -- why not? You should be careful to argue against what I've actually said, not what you've imagined I've said. (Admittedly, that's a common problem here.) When a lane is wide enough to safely share, I share that lane. I've said so many times. Please check your notes. And unless your riding universe is completely different from mine, you will have seen plenty of cyclists literally riding in the gutter. You'll have seen even more skimming the very edge of a 10 foot lane to let an 8 foot truck squeeze by with inches to spare. You'll have seen countless cyclists riding in the door zone. Take the lane when you need it -- and be careful if you are riding in the door zone. Pre-plague, I did that all the time to avoid stopped traffic. It's harder these days with blacked-out windows, but I'm not going to sit around behind a line of stopped traffic. I disagree strongly with "be careful if you are riding in the door zone." It's much better to just stay out of the door zone. Because what does "be careful" mean? Hit the brakes and swerve if the driver's door opens when you're at the taillight? Sorry, physics makes that impossible. As I've mentioned, Chicago began keeping track of doorings, whereas most areas don't record them since they are not collisions "between vehicles in transport." Chicago found something like a quarter of its car-bike collisions were doorings. BTW, the gutter is like 8" wide with a curb. Try actually riding in a gutter. Most of our roads don't even have gutters. There is just a curb or nothing. The only times I see cyclists in actual gutters is when they're trying to squeeze around cars and other obstacles. Of course it's necessary to strictly use exactly proper language when in a discussion with a lawyer! But: Most of our gutters (actually "gutter pans," cast in one piece with the curb) are closer to a foot wide. But yes, I actually do see cyclists riding in them. And generalizing the concept, I see many cyclists riding at the very edge of a paved road that lacks curbs or (by your definition) well-defined gutters. On certain roads I see people riding dirt tracks they've worn in the grass just a few inches off the pavement. And a few years ago I described the incident where a road bicyclist in full kit on a rural road rode off onto the grass rather than obstruct a pickup approaching behind him. This is basic! It's probably covered in this online course: https://cyclingsavvy.org/courses/ess...-short-course/ I learned that stuff when I was seven years old in a mandatory education class after being busted for riding my bike the wrong way down the road in front of the police station. Even at the time, I knew I was breaking the law, and I learned an important lesson. Don't break the law in front of the police station. You know this stuff. Would you say your level of intelligence and expertise is typical? Keep in mind that half the people in America are of below average intelligence. As a couple of data points, I've been hit maybe a half-dozen times and never while skulking in the gutter. I was lane center riding the speed of traffic when someone turned in front of me. Nice ride to the hospital in an ambulance. I was doing the same thing when some one pulled out from my right for no reason. I got hooked by a mail truck. I got rear-ended by a bus while in the middle of the f****** lane. People do stupid sh**. People do stupid ****. But people do less stupid **** to riders who are positioned so they are visible. You improve your odds when you move away from the edge - assuming, as on most roads, that there is not room to safely share the lane. Can you picture two normal curves? Each one representing the probability of a rider's car-bike crash. Neither one has absolute zero probability (the far left tail of the curve). But the curves are shifted laterally from each other. The rider who hugs the edge has more chance of getting hit, and the reasons should be obvious to a person who can visualize lines of sight and lane dimensions. Hit how? If I had been hugging the edge of the road and riding in the door-handle zone, that bus may have missed me. Riding lane center may increase the chance of getting hit depending on the road and type of collision. I ascend to the far right on this road because it is the other side of a blind turn and being far right makes me more visible... ??? What? I'd say the opposite is true. -- and I can bail out if some idiot comes drifting around the corner from either direction. How often do they run into an oncoming car in the lane you ride in? They're idiots, but they're even less likely to run into you. Try to not let your imagination run away. Picture a van parked just east of a driveway. Picture a cyclist riding west, skimming along within three feet of the van (and wishing the bike lane were next to the curb in the passenger side door zone instead of in the driver side door zone). Can you picture a motorist trying to pull out of the driveway and hitting the cyclist? That should be easy. If the van blocked the motorist's view of the cyclist without a DRL, it would have blocked his view of the cyclist with a DRL. The DRL not only didn't help, it may give the cyclist false confidence and increase his danger. It's an ineffective kluge. Not that I'm a big DRL fan, but in that scenario, you're concerned about being conspicuous. Why not be even more conspicuous with a DRL? Or a flippy flag or a fluorescent vomit jersey? .... and a pool noodle! And a siren! And a car leading you, with flashing lights and horn blaring! Why not? Here's why not: Because it's not necessary, it's a distraction from adopting better measures, it inspires false confidence and risk compensation, it wastes money, it implies that bicycling is hyper-dangerous thus dissuading others from riding... The main point about "safety inflation" is, where does it stop? Your simplistic "why not?" can be used to justify all sorts of weirdness. -- - Frank Krygowski |
#256
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Eyc headlight problem
sms wrote:
snip One of my high school friends couldn't decide between art and electrical engineering as a major. He chose EE. He was super-smart academically but he could not design anything or repair anything, it just wasn't his forte. So, which branch of government did he enter, then? |
#257
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Safety inflation
On Tuesday, April 13, 2021 at 11:20:43 AM UTC-5, Frank Krygowski wrote:
Keep in mind that half the people in America are of below average intelligence. True, if you are using median as equal to average. *Tom/Trump, this is math, so you will want to run away and scream the antifa communist radical right Qanon deniers are out to get you. If you are equating mean to equal average, then it could go either way. 50% above or 50% below average intelligence. Probably using standard deviations and bell curves is a better way to talk about intelligence. I would surmise everyone within one standard deviation of mean has enough intelligence to get by just fine. Maybe even two standard deviations. Its the outliers where the problems occur. As usual. Take the attempted coup of the USA orchestrated by Trump on Jan 6. It was only the far far far outliers who were there and invaded the capitol wearing viking helmets and ended up killing five people. |
#258
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Eyc headlight problem
On 4/13/2021 11:30 AM, Sepp Ruf wrote:
sms wrote: snip One of my high school friends couldn't decide between art and electrical engineering as a major. He chose EE. He was super-smart academically but he could not design anything or repair anything, it just wasn't his forte. So, which branch of government did he enter, then? He went to work for a defense contractor in Southern California. I don't know what his job was but there were probably analytical jobs that didn't involve actual design. |
#259
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Safety inflation
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#260
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Eyc headlight problem
sms wrote:
On 4/13/2021 6:45 AM, Ralph Barone wrote: snip There are certainly a broad range of people calling themselves “electrical engineers”, and the RF guys don’t know about power, and the digital guys don’t really know analog. Maybe things have changed since I graduated but EEs had to at least take entry level courses in all of the specialties. Digital guys all took power courses and vice-versa. And we all took analog courses. We also all took thermodynamics, and statics and dynamics. For sure. I did that too, but I’m under no illusion that I could do RF or digital design nowadays. And even though I’m a power systems guy, I couldn’t do insulation coordination, a transient stability study, or spec an SF6 circuit breaker. The field is just too damn wide. One of my high school friends couldn't decide between art and electrical engineering as a major. He chose EE. He was super-smart academically but he could not design anything or repair anything, it just wasn't his forte. |
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