Buying and Selling

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On 9/24/2017 9:23 PM, Frank Krygowski wrote:
On 9/24/2017 2:43 PM, AMuzi wrote:
On 9/24/2017 1:38 PM, sms wrote:
On 9/24/2017 9:41 AM, Joerg wrote:

snip

For the record, I ride an American MTB and an
international road bike (it was custom built from Dutch,
Japanese, French, Italian and German parts).

At least those are all real countries. Our dolt of a
president has now started inventing new countries. At first
people weren't sure if he had meant Gambia, Zambia, or
Namibia, but the White House made a statement clarifying
what he meant to say.

And yet he won ...

Which is an indictment of our education system, if not an
indictment of most of our culture.


That's an hypothesis, and may be true.

But it's also possible that rather than being a nation of
deplorables, people saw both major parties dither and spend
and tax and dither until a raving lunatic became preferable.

--
Andrew Muzi
www.yellowjersey.org/
Open every day since 1 April, 1971

On 2017-09-24 17:01, John B. wrote:
On Sun, 24 Sep 2017 07:34:50 -0700, Joerg
wrote:

On 2017-09-23 20:52, John B. wrote:
On Sat, 23 Sep 2017 08:15:14 -0700, Joerg
wrote:

On 2017-09-22 19:03, John B. wrote:
On Fri, 22 Sep 2017 12:36:31 -0700, Joerg
wrote:

On 2017-09-19 19:44, sms wrote:
On 9/19/2017 6:52 PM, somebody wrote:

On 2017-09-19 07:06, wrote:

snip

Or the brake pads from China, $2/pair and free ship. As I have always
said the postage fees are grossly lopsided between Asia and the US and
that is one of the core reasosn for our trade deficit. Except that most
politicians (except manybe one ...) do not understand that.

It's an international reciprocal postal treaty that no one worried about
when it was mainly U.S. residents of Chinese descent sending packages to
relatives in China.


More than a decade ago tyat has changed, big time. How long does it take
for politicians to turn on their brains? Or for some of them, do they
even have one?


... The origin country gets all the postage and the
destination country gets nothing with the assumption that the volume
will be roughly equal.

The small volume of direct-to-consumer low-value items from China is not
a core reason for the trade deficit.


It is rising, big time. I know people who buy just about anything other
than groceries on EBay. When they say "Oh, it always gets here in three
to five weeks" you know what's going on. Heck, I even had stuff I bought
on Amazon come via "China Post".


... These items would still come into
the U.S. through other channels, at higher prices, were it not so cheap
to do international shipping from China, you'd just have a middleman.


Same reason. The stuff then comes in bulk but the shipping charges are
grossly lower than if a US vendor sent the same items to Asia. It isn't
just China. For example, when we needed name tags for our therapy dogs'
vests (for nursing home visits) we ordered them via Amazon. A small
package arrived from Manila, Philippines. I couldn't believe it
considering that we had paid just a few Dollars. Looked at the postage,
calculated - $0.60. Airmail! It came from a seamstress who appears to
specialize in cloth name tags. The shipping cost discrepancy alone puts
similar seamstresses in the US out of business.

Given that the cost of living, and salaries, are as much as five times
cheaper in China than in the U.S. how is changing the mailing costs
going to effect sales?


The ships and aircraft aren't going to be operable at five times less.

Certainly ships are noticeably cheaper to operate if they are NOT U.S.
flag vessels. Aircraft? I'm not sure but I would bet that crew costs
are noticeably cheaper and almost certainly maintenance costs are
cheaper and I would guess if a national carrier in China that fuel
costs are also cheaper.


Nope. They pretty much pay international (for example Singapore) prices:

http://www.edisoninvestmentresearch....ID=18116&LANG=

China Post flies Boeing and I can hardly imagine that they get spare
parts and service a whole lot cheaper than anyone else whose fleet
consist of Boeing aircraft.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China_Postal_Airlines

You seem to assume that Boeing parts are all that enter into
maintaining an airplane. Wrong. The engines, for example, can be
overhauled and labour, facilities and equipment are a large part of
the cost of the overhaul. The airframe maintenance is also largely a
matter of facilities, labour and equipment.


Ah yes, and of course Rolls-Royce sells their engine parts and service
to the Chinese at an 80% discount ...


Hey! I was in the business of maintaining airplanes for my uncle for
20 years and the normal maintenance manpower for a fleet of airplanes
was several hundred people. All of whom are five times cheaper in
China, and the equipment, tools maintenance stands, buildings, all
cheaper in China.


Your uncle probably didn't fly Boeings or Airbuses internationally.
Those companies require quite strict procedures or they will call off
all bets.


My wife's older sister and her son, his wife, and the grand kids
visited Thailand about six months ago. The grandson, probably 19 years
old, told me that he worked part time at "the dollar store" unloading
trucks for $10 an hour. The current minimum salary in Thailand is 300
baht, about $9 a day. At today's exchange rate the U.S. salary, for
coolie labour, is ~9 times the Thai salary.


Think international for a minute. That changes things.

International? Isn't Thailand and California international enough for
you?


See links above. Local wages are much less relevant when you consider
international transport of good. Because someone has to pay the various
transport sections, equipment, maintenance, et cetera.

Many years ago I was peripherally involved in aircraft maintenance in
Miami, Fla. and in those years there were many South American
airplanes flying into Miami and every one of them would do everything
that they could not to have any maintenance performed in los Estados
Unidos as it was too expensive.


Sure. However, the maintenance in Brasil or other places does not come
at an 80-90% discount. It comes at a 20-30% discount, maybe. To a large
extent because the parts cost the same.

It does not explain a 5-10x factor between US and Chinese shipping
costs. There is more going on, way deeper than equipment-related.

--
Regards, Joerg

http://www.analogconsultants.com/

On Monday, September 25, 2017 at 9:10:40 AM UTC-4, wrote:
We all hear you declare time after time that everyone but you is stupid.

Wow! Talk about a lack of self-awareness!

- Frank Krygowski

On 9/25/2017 9:06 AM, Joerg wrote:
On 2017-09-24 17:01, John B. wrote:
24 Sep Joerg wrote:
On 2017-09-23 20:52, John B. wrote:
23 Sep Joerg wrote:
On 2017-09-22 19:03, John B. wrote:
22 Sep Joerg wrote:
On 2017-09-19 19:44, sms wrote:
On 9/19/2017 6:52 PM, somebody wrote:
On 2017-09-19 07:06, wrote:

snip

-snip snip-

Hey! I was in the business of maintaining airplanes for my
uncle for
20 years and the normal maintenance manpower for a fleet
of airplanes
was several hundred people. All of whom are five times
cheaper in
China, and the equipment, tools maintenance stands,
buildings, all
cheaper in China.


Your uncle probably didn't fly Boeings or Airbuses
internationally. Those companies require quite strict
procedures or they will call off all bets.

-more snip-

USAF, Navy, Marines & SAC fly LOTS of miles/hours.
(no Airbus hardware!)

--
Andrew Muzi
www.yellowjersey.org/
Open every day since 1 April, 1971

On Mon, 25 Sep 2017 07:06:25 -0700, Joerg
wrote:

On 2017-09-24 17:01, John B. wrote:
On Sun, 24 Sep 2017 07:34:50 -0700, Joerg
wrote:

On 2017-09-23 20:52, John B. wrote:
On Sat, 23 Sep 2017 08:15:14 -0700, Joerg
wrote:

On 2017-09-22 19:03, John B. wrote:
On Fri, 22 Sep 2017 12:36:31 -0700, Joerg
wrote:

On 2017-09-19 19:44, sms wrote:
On 9/19/2017 6:52 PM, somebody wrote:

On 2017-09-19 07:06, wrote:

snip

Or the brake pads from China, $2/pair and free ship. As I have always
said the postage fees are grossly lopsided between Asia and the US and
that is one of the core reasosn for our trade deficit. Except that most
politicians (except manybe one ...) do not understand that.

It's an international reciprocal postal treaty that no one worried about
when it was mainly U.S. residents of Chinese descent sending packages to
relatives in China.


More than a decade ago tyat has changed, big time. How long does it take
for politicians to turn on their brains? Or for some of them, do they
even have one?


... The origin country gets all the postage and the
destination country gets nothing with the assumption that the volume
will be roughly equal.

The small volume of direct-to-consumer low-value items from China is not
a core reason for the trade deficit.


It is rising, big time. I know people who buy just about anything other
than groceries on EBay. When they say "Oh, it always gets here in three
to five weeks" you know what's going on. Heck, I even had stuff I bought
on Amazon come via "China Post".


... These items would still come into
the U.S. through other channels, at higher prices, were it not so cheap
to do international shipping from China, you'd just have a middleman.


Same reason. The stuff then comes in bulk but the shipping charges are
grossly lower than if a US vendor sent the same items to Asia. It isn't
just China. For example, when we needed name tags for our therapy dogs'
vests (for nursing home visits) we ordered them via Amazon. A small
package arrived from Manila, Philippines. I couldn't believe it
considering that we had paid just a few Dollars. Looked at the postage,
calculated - $0.60. Airmail! It came from a seamstress who appears to
specialize in cloth name tags. The shipping cost discrepancy alone puts
similar seamstresses in the US out of business.

Given that the cost of living, and salaries, are as much as five times
cheaper in China than in the U.S. how is changing the mailing costs
going to effect sales?


The ships and aircraft aren't going to be operable at five times less.

Certainly ships are noticeably cheaper to operate if they are NOT U.S.
flag vessels. Aircraft? I'm not sure but I would bet that crew costs
are noticeably cheaper and almost certainly maintenance costs are
cheaper and I would guess if a national carrier in China that fuel
costs are also cheaper.


Nope. They pretty much pay international (for example Singapore) prices:

http://www.edisoninvestmentresearch....ID=18116&LANG=

China Post flies Boeing and I can hardly imagine that they get spare
parts and service a whole lot cheaper than anyone else whose fleet
consist of Boeing aircraft.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China_Postal_Airlines

You seem to assume that Boeing parts are all that enter into
maintaining an airplane. Wrong. The engines, for example, can be
overhauled and labour, facilities and equipment are a large part of
the cost of the overhaul. The airframe maintenance is also largely a
matter of facilities, labour and equipment.


Ah yes, and of course Rolls-Royce sells their engine parts and service
to the Chinese at an 80% discount ...

To be honest I don't know how Rolls sells their jet engines but I do
know that the U.S. engine makers sold their engines to the USAF much
cheaper then they sold the same engines to commercial users.

But I am sure that you know that jet engines are manufactured in
China? CFN International, a joint venture between GE and SAFRAN Group.
CFM has already delivered 20,000 engines over four decades, making it
the most popular airline jet engine ever. In fact, a CFM-powered
airplane takes off every 2.5 seconds.

Perhaps they aren't using Rolls engines :-)


Hey! I was in the business of maintaining airplanes for my uncle for
20 years and the normal maintenance manpower for a fleet of airplanes
was several hundred people. All of whom are five times cheaper in
China, and the equipment, tools maintenance stands, buildings, all
cheaper in China.


Your uncle probably didn't fly Boeings or Airbuses internationally.
Those companies require quite strict procedures or they will call off
all bets.

Nope. The companies that make airplanes usually offer a number of what
one might call "standard" versions, for example number of passenger
seats or number of crew positions. Indonesia for example bought Boeing
aircraft with only two crew positions when other companies were buying
three crew configurations.

And once you buy the thing, test flown and accepted, the aircraft
belongs to you and Boeing or Airbus no longer have anything to say
about it.



My wife's older sister and her son, his wife, and the grand kids
visited Thailand about six months ago. The grandson, probably 19 years
old, told me that he worked part time at "the dollar store" unloading
trucks for $10 an hour. The current minimum salary in Thailand is 300
baht, about $9 a day. At today's exchange rate the U.S. salary, for
coolie labour, is ~9 times the Thai salary.


Think international for a minute. That changes things.

International? Isn't Thailand and California international enough for
you?


See links above. Local wages are much less relevant when you consider
international transport of good. Because someone has to pay the various
transport sections, equipment, maintenance, et cetera.

Many years ago I was peripherally involved in aircraft maintenance in
Miami, Fla. and in those years there were many South American
airplanes flying into Miami and every one of them would do everything
that they could not to have any maintenance performed in los Estados
Unidos as it was too expensive.


Sure. However, the maintenance in Brasil or other places does not come
at an 80-90% discount. It comes at a 20-30% discount, maybe. To a large
extent because the parts cost the same.

No the parts do not cost the same. Boeing may sell them for a standard
price but aircraft operators do not stock whole airplanes for spare
parts. They usually buy from middlemen who charge whatever the market
will bear.

When I was in Indonesia we were approached by a group of Indonesian
Airforce people to see if we could improve the maintenance on their
helicopters. We approached the helicopter makers about parts prices
and were referred to their S.E.A. representative who, in effect, told
us to get lost as they already hade a very nice arrangement to sell
parts to the Indonesian air force at prices much higher then they were
selling to private helicopter companies in the region.


It does not explain a 5-10x factor between US and Chinese shipping
costs. There is more going on, way deeper than equipment-related.


Of course it is. It is a deep and dark conspiracy to defraud the
American public out of their honestly earned money.

To defeat this evil plot is simple. Stop buying China made items.
--
Cheers,

John B.

On Mon, 25 Sep 2017 10:03:04 -0500, AMuzi wrote:

On 9/25/2017 9:06 AM, Joerg wrote:
On 2017-09-24 17:01, John B. wrote:
24 Sep Joerg wrote:
On 2017-09-23 20:52, John B. wrote:
23 Sep Joerg wrote:
On 2017-09-22 19:03, John B. wrote:
22 Sep Joerg wrote:
On 2017-09-19 19:44, sms wrote:
On 9/19/2017 6:52 PM, somebody wrote:
On 2017-09-19 07:06, wrote:

snip

-snip snip-

Hey! I was in the business of maintaining airplanes for my
uncle for
20 years and the normal maintenance manpower for a fleet
of airplanes
was several hundred people. All of whom are five times
cheaper in
China, and the equipment, tools maintenance stands,
buildings, all
cheaper in China.


Your uncle probably didn't fly Boeings or Airbuses
internationally. Those companies require quite strict
procedures or they will call off all bets.

-more snip-

USAF, Navy, Marines & SAC fly LOTS of miles/hours.
(no Airbus hardware!)

Interestingly though, the Air Force, at least, developed a maintenance
system based on a system developed by Pan American Airways.

I simple terms it was a "if it ain't broke, don't fix it" sort of
scheme and did improved the flying hour/maintenance hour ratio.
--
Cheers,

John B.

On Mon, 25 Sep 2017 12:42:43 -0700, Joerg
wrote:

On 2017-09-25 08:03, AMuzi wrote:
On 9/25/2017 9:06 AM, Joerg wrote:
On 2017-09-24 17:01, John B. wrote:
24 Sep Joerg wrote:
On 2017-09-23 20:52, John B. wrote:
23 Sep Joerg wrote:
On 2017-09-22 19:03, John B. wrote:
22 Sep Joerg wrote:
On 2017-09-19 19:44, sms wrote:
On 9/19/2017 6:52 PM, somebody wrote:
On 2017-09-19 07:06, wrote:

snip

-snip snip-

Hey! I was in the business of maintaining airplanes for my
uncle for
20 years and the normal maintenance manpower for a fleet
of airplanes
was several hundred people. All of whom are five times
cheaper in
China, and the equipment, tools maintenance stands,
buildings, all
cheaper in China.


Your uncle probably didn't fly Boeings or Airbuses
internationally. Those companies require quite strict
procedures or they will call off all bets.

-more snip-

USAF, Navy, Marines & SAC fly LOTS of miles/hours.
(no Airbus hardware!)


Which of them has their aircraft serviced by a low cost shop in China or
elsewhere?

Wrong again. In about 1967 there was a huge overhaul depot at Ching
Chuan Kang Air Base (if I remember correctly) on Taiwan where hundreds
of Chinese were busily overhauling F-4's.
--
Cheers,

John B.

On Mon, 25 Sep 2017 15:50:54 -0500, AMuzi wrote:

On 9/25/2017 2:42 PM, Joerg wrote:
On 2017-09-25 08:03, AMuzi wrote:
On 9/25/2017 9:06 AM, Joerg wrote:
On 2017-09-24 17:01, John B. wrote:
24 Sep Joerg wrote:
On 2017-09-23 20:52, John B. wrote:
23 Sep Joerg wrote:
On 2017-09-22 19:03, John B. wrote:
22 Sep Joerg wrote:
On 2017-09-19 19:44, sms wrote:
On 9/19/2017 6:52 PM, somebody wrote:
On 2017-09-19 07:06, wrote:

snip

-snip snip-

Hey! I was in the business of maintaining airplanes for my
uncle for
20 years and the normal maintenance manpower for a fleet
of airplanes
was several hundred people. All of whom are five times
cheaper in
China, and the equipment, tools maintenance stands,
buildings, all
cheaper in China.


Your uncle probably didn't fly Boeings or Airbuses
internationally. Those companies require quite strict
procedures or they will call off all bets.

-more snip-

USAF, Navy, Marines & SAC fly LOTS of miles/hours.
(no Airbus hardware!)


Which of them has their aircraft serviced by a low cost shop
in China or elsewhere?


Mr Slocumb might elaborate but I bet no facility staffed by
Uncle Sam's enlisted military, anywhere, is 'low cost'.

Having observed some of the civilian "feather merchants" that inhabit
the military system I suggest that perhaps, disregarding the physical
installation, the Military might be the lower cost :-)

But in a more sober vein the Military works on a budget system. the
Defense Department allocates so much money to a Unit for, say aircraft
fuel, and the Unit is then tasked with using all that fuel, as the
byword in any government agency is "Never, Never under spend your
budget!"

The theory being that if you don't use all the money this year you
will get less next year.

--
Cheers,

John B.

On Monday, September 25, 2017 at 7:23:20 PM UTC-7, John B. wrote:

But I am sure that you know that jet engines are manufactured in
China? CFN International, a joint venture between GE and SAFRAN Group.
CFM has already delivered 20,000 engines over four decades, making it
the most popular airline jet engine ever. In fact, a CFM-powered
airplane takes off every 2.5 seconds.

I suppose this is part of your thesis that they send jet engines via
China Post