Fun with exponents

On Sat, 30 May 2020 10:49:34 -0700 (PDT), wrote:

On Saturday, May 30, 2020 at 1:46:44 AM UTC-7, Andre Jute wrote:
On Friday, May 29, 2020 at 11:51:59 PM UTC+1, John B. wrote:
On Fri, 29 May 2020 08:36:42 -0700 (PDT), wrote:

On Thursday, May 28, 2020 at 3:30:53 AM UTC-7, Andre Jute wrote:
On Wednesday, May 27, 2020 at 6:04:58 PM UTC+1, AMuzi wrote:

Further to my last reply, I am not an expert. I do not work
in relevant fields nor read much beyond general coverage and
Science News.

Science? What you want science for? "Science" says we're all already burnt to a frazzle in the global warming.

However, confidence in CDC (and most Governors) is lacking
out here among the population of punished innocents:

https://www.theblaze.com/op-ed/horow...e-is-the-media

Journalists are all "scientists" too. It is in the interest of the Donkey Party to ramp up the media's hysterical fear-mongering, so the media as the publicity department of the Donkey Party are pleased to call themselves, irresponsibly ramp up the fear. Compare the way the media has thugged on Ron de Santis of Florida, by an objective account a very successful governor in these dangerous times, with the way they have idolized Andrew Cuomo, whose cruel (and stupid, and criminal) decisions aggravated matters in New York State. (I'm not even talking about Mayor de Blasio, whose incompetence is murderous.)

I understand that government employees relaxing at home with
full pay and retirees have a much less urgent interest than
people running out of resources right now.

I'm used to sitting in an elegant if somewhat dusty room (I subscribe to the Sherlock Holmes theory of filing -- I know from the depth of the dust on a stack of papers how urgent they must be) starting at a bare (well, actually wallpapered in restful Regency browny-pink stripes with a polished picture rail) or out of the window at the magpies squabbling in the eucalyptus trees. I didn't even notice the first lockdown until it was two weeks in and my wife mentioned it to me when I offered to take her to lunch at a fave restaurant. The police and the Red Cross bring our medicines (and the pharmacy staff anyway picked up prescriptions and delivered medicines before the Wuhan Virus; just another service they offer), the shops we always patronized bring our groceries as they always did, and we hardly notice that there's a problem.

But I'm an economist as well as an artist, and a valid question arises: Considering that the majority of the victims of the Wuhan Virus were elderly and presumably out of the workforce, and that dumb political decisions like Governor Cuomo stuffing sick people back into rest homes, aggravated their chances of dying of the virus, was the lockdown warranted? That is, would the hospitals really have been overwhelmed? If the answer is yes, then no lockdown could easily have led to much larger economic damage -- ask yourself the economic value of an orderly society, which you clearly lose at some point in an out-of-control pandemic. So, the economic damage without a lockdown could have been larger. Emphasis on *could*. That must be weighed against this: without the economic damage of any lockdown (or one starting earlier or later, and for shorter or longer), how many more old people would have died, short of the total breakdown of society I
described earlier in this paragraph? That's the sort of awful and awesome decision democracies elect their chief executives to take.* The present operating conditions of decision-makers is the starkest reminder you can imagine of the historical reality that economics isn't a science (as the mathematical branches insist), but a specialized branch of philosophy.

Good luck with sorting out the reasonable reality from the politics that has since the beginning bedeviled even hard counts, never mind speculative points such as those I just raised.

--
Andrew Muzi
www.yellowjersey.org/
Open every day since 1 April, 1971

Andre Jute
Just as well Mr Trump is a man of action rather than being given to overly much cogitation -- personally, if I were President, I'd hightail it to Canada or England or Australia and offer to be Prime Minister, because their collective-Cabinet-responsibility shares the blame for any decisions in such a loss-loss situation.

Several years ago there was an especially heavy Arctic ice extent. Since these things are cyclic it shouldn't surprise anyone. But there appeared a strong southerly wind that is somewhat unusual. This blew the icepack a mile offshore and immediately the "environmentalists" flocked to the Alaskan northern shore and began taking pictures which they have ever since used to "prove" that global warming is real and exists. How they thought that they could get away with turning a near record ice extent into a total lack of ice in the Arctic ocean only they know. But the public in general didn't fall for it but the articles in Science News have gotten more and more shrill. I think that it was just this last winter they announced that Svalsberg, Norway, was ice free for the first winter on record. Perhaps they should have consulted with the Svalsberg authorities since they had almost record depths of ice there and for the first time in many years could not get off of the island by sea.

I have come to the conclusion that science has died. My wife was a teacher and yesterday she started reading a Tarzan novel from the 1930's. She said that she seriously doubts that people under the age of 40 could even read it. The English is so proper, the grammar so correct that even she has to read every word and not skim them like she does most paperbacks these days.

Watched Funny Girl the other night. This was so phony and belittled reality that one has to wonder why this film was ever made. Fanny Brice was a huckster and she was married before her boyfriend the con artist. Together they attempted to work many cons. Her third husband was Billy Rose the producer and gay guy.

Wouldn't an account of Queen Elizabeth have been far more romantic?

I don't know about you but I have had it with Hollywood gays promoting immorality because they recognize that if they can make it common they wouldn't be criticized as much.

Consider this - 40% of the economy of the "shelter in place" states has disappeared and will take years to recover. This drives the suicide rates up. Paul Ehrlich, a moronic and virtually criminally insane, tenured professor at Stanford in the 1980's was promoting putting sterility agents into reservoirs and poison into food supplies sent to third world countries in order to control what he termed "The Population Bomb". Isn't this virtually the same thing?

Of course it is, you fool. It is the Yellow Buffoon in the White House
trying to eliminate all the Democrats so he can be re-elected.
(and it's taken you all these months to realize it)
--
cheers,

John B.

Are you color-blind as well as a shortass, Slow Johnny? There's nothing yellow about Mr Trump. He is exactly the opposite of a coward.

It doesn't surprise me that some bum living in Thailand has opinions about a President for which he gets his information from the Lame Stream Media. I was somewhat dumbfounded about all of the children posters on a comment section talking about Trump shutting down freedom of the press when he did exactly the opposite with Twitter. His executive order made them able to be sued for censoring information as they so commonly do. No threats, no misinformation and often references for all of it and Twitter will censor it because it doesn't meet their political standards.

Lets see... Trump posts on Twitter. Twitter identifies his post as,
well, a lie. Trump rather than admit his lies becomes enraged at being
caught and starts screaming.

Yes Sir! Obviously a plan by somebody, anybody, it wasn't me, it was
them, I didn't do it and if I did it is O.K. 'cause I'm president...

Truly a leader to be proud of .
--
cheers,

John B.

On Sat, 30 May 2020 15:45:00 -0400, Frank Krygowski
wrote:

On 5/29/2020 8:55 PM, John B. wrote:
I thought that the U.S. was, well, bragging about all the
tests. More than any other country in the world.

Well, one weird guy and those deluded by him may be bragging about all
the U.S. COVID tests. But please don't equate him or them with the
country as a whole.

Well... Y'all picked him. Now y'all gotta live with him :-)
--
cheers,

John B.

On Saturday, May 30, 2020 at 1:47:34 PM UTC-7, AnotherJim wrote:
I'm hesitant to step into this mud war, but here's a straightforward graph, compiled from government data by Yale Medical school:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graph...ss-deaths-may/

It compares COVID 19 deaths and total recent deaths to expected deaths from historical data. It shows that COVID 19 deaths in excess of expected flu, etc., deaths and that the COVID 19 tabulations are most likely underestimated.

Jim

Jim, in order to get that site you have to subscribe and I already get 50 advertisements to every real post.

But none of that information most of which is based on the John Hopkins Covid-19 Dashboard is even vaguely true.

If you look at https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html at the bottom right you will see the confirmed cases as a linear line. If you look at the daily cases it show virtually an equal number of cases each day.

This is not how a disease spreads - it is exponential. One infection gives it to many who in turn give it to many. And Linear function means that the information is irrational.

If you look at https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...nchs-data.html you can see what is happening.

The total deaths as shown by death certificates is actually below normal. And that red line are the "reported" Wuhan Virus deaths. As you see, they are supposedly shooting through the ceiling while total deaths are not changing.

How can this occur? Because the CDC awards hospitals that report covid-19 deaths a subsidy to pay for additional cleanup of the areas in which the patients could have infected. (I have heard that this is $37,000 each but cannot verify it).

NO ONE is going to hospitals and we have hospitals even in New York City close to bankruptcy and here in California actually closing so that is a profit center that cannot be ignored.

So the reason that total deaths are not rising while covid-19 deaths appear to be spiking is because they simply assign the Wuhan virus to any death. They do not have enough tests to go around and pneumonia that is the largest killer of old people has similar symptoms so just assign that and perhaps save your hospital and its entire staff.

Now I cannot find it presently but there is an update to last week and the total death tolls rose to - wait for it - NORMAL levels. But the charts are actually jiggered so that it doesn't appear so. They show Total Deaths and you can push a button that shows Total Deaths Without Covid-19. It appears that there has been a LOT of covid-19 deaths. Wait, that chart is a year long and there appears to be the same reduction in total deaths when you switch to the Deaths Without. Looking closer what you find is that these two charts are made to a different scale! This has been done purposely to mislead people that this is a dangerous disease.

But we discover elsewhere that the TOTAL death rates of people WITH SYMPTONS (this is only 5% of the total population) is only 0.06%.

All of this is astonishing and gives absolutely no support to the fascistic closure of the entire economy in Blue States.

To repeat myself - an operating room mask is designed to protect a patient from bacterial infections and not viruses. Viruses are so small that wearing a mask is like trying to stop flies from entering your house with an open front door.

If you are an infected person you have an entire cloud of viruses floating around you that is renewed with every breath. These particles are far too light to fall out of the air and as you move inside of a building you leave a trail of them behind you. A person could walk though that cloud a full minute later and it is theoretically possible he could be infected. So neither masks nor personal distancing inside a building do any good at all.

Outside the motion of the wind quickly dissipates and dilutes the virus particles and sunshine kills them.

So in the one case it is useless and in the other it is unnecessary. These are things that a first year med student is supposed to know. Why did Fauci reverse himself from common medical knowledge to "wear a mask and social distancing"?

We have been completely betrayed by the HHSA and the CDC who are supposed to keep us properly informed. Why?

On 30/05/2020 21.47, AnotherJim wrote:
I'm hesitant to step into this mud war, but here's a straightforward
graph, compiled from government data by Yale Medical school:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graph...ss-deaths-may/

It compares COVID 19 deaths and total recent deaths to expected
deaths from historical data. It shows that COVID 19 deaths in excess
of expected flu, etc., deaths and that the COVID 19 tabulations are
most likely underestimated.

On related note, it's been speculated in the UK that COVID-19 is
actually increasing the lifespan of under 30 males. They don't tend to
die of COVID-19, and they are less likely to die in RTAs these days :-)

On 30/05/2020 23.13, John B. wrote:
On Sat, 30 May 2020 08:54:43 +0100, Tosspot
wrote:

On 29/05/2020 23.51, John B. wrote:

snip

Of course it is, you fool. It is the Yellow Buffoon in the White House
trying to eliminate all the Democrats so he can be re-elected.
(and it's taken you all these months to realize it)

Point of order, Orange. As in

https://transparent-aluminium.net/wp...st-Signs-2.jpg

Hmmmm Red in this picture
https://www.bangkokpost.com/world/19...-ties-with-who

The aquarium cleaner isn't doing him any favours. Damn that man looks
unwell.

John B. wrote:
On Sat, 30 May 2020 08:54:43 +0100, Tosspot wrote:
On 29/05/2020 23.51, John B. wrote:

snip

Of course it is, you fool. It is the Yellow Buffoon in the White House
trying to eliminate all the Democrats so he can be re-elected.
(and it's taken you all these months to realize it)

Point of order, Orange. As in

https://transparent-aluminium.net/wp...st-Signs-2.jpg

Hmmmm Red in this picture
https://www.bangkokpost.com/world/19...-ties-with-who

Do keep us posted what the lab verdicts are on this intriguing story:
https://www.bangkokpost.com/thailand/general/1926384/these-eggs-are-fake-says-angry-buyer
Fake pharma-orange or red-pilled natural pale yellow? Powdery gel or jelly
powder omelette? Fake egg or fed unsold meat? Red-faction Thai's mask or
egg on greedy buyer's face?

https://www.dsm.com/markets/anh/en_US/products/products-solutions/products_solutions_tools/digital-yolkfan.html

On 5/31/2020 2:46 AM, Tosspot wrote:
On 30/05/2020 23.13, John B. wrote:
On Sat, 30 May 2020 08:54:43 +0100, Tosspot

wrote:

On 29/05/2020 23.51, John B. wrote:

snip

Of course it is, you fool. It is the Yellow Buffoon in
the White House
trying to eliminate all the Democrats so he can be
re-elected.
(and it's taken you all these months to realize it)

Point of order, Orange. As in

https://transparent-aluminium.net/wp...st-Signs-2.jpg


Hmmmm Red in this picture
https://www.bangkokpost.com/world/19...-ties-with-who


The aquarium cleaner isn't doing him any favours. Damn that
man looks unwell.

oh dear lord, that pool cleaner poisoning was a murder and
she had a prior attempt on him. It's utterly unrelated.

--
Andrew Muzi
www.yellowjersey.org/
Open every day since 1 April, 1971

On Sunday, May 31, 2020 at 12:45:45 AM UTC-7, Tosspot wrote:
On 30/05/2020 21.47, AnotherJim wrote:
I'm hesitant to step into this mud war, but here's a straightforward
graph, compiled from government data by Yale Medical school:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graph...ss-deaths-may/

It compares COVID 19 deaths and total recent deaths to expected
deaths from historical data. It shows that COVID 19 deaths in excess
of expected flu, etc., deaths and that the COVID 19 tabulations are
most likely underestimated.

On related note, it's been speculated in the UK that COVID-19 is
actually increasing the lifespan of under 30 males. They don't tend to
die of COVID-19, and they are less likely to die in RTAs these days :-)

It's also been speculated that it will increase the average lifespan for the next 30 years, And it you understood statistics you'd realize that is more probable.

Your response to me:

"If you look at https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...nchs-data.html you can see what is happening.

The total deaths as shown by death certificates is actually below normal. And that red line are the "reported" Wuhan Virus deaths. As you see, they are supposedly shooting through the ceiling while total deaths are not changing.

How can this occur? Because the CDC awards hospitals that report covid-19 deaths a subsidy to pay for additional cleanup of the areas in which the patients could have infected. (I have heard that this is $37,000 each but cannot verify it)."

The data shown on the plot your reference is from the first week in April. Looking at the table for May 29

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

one sees that the total deaths for the first week of April were actually 69,000, 10,000 higher than the previous month. The site also clearly says that death data have a built-in delay and are updated as needed. So, the data you site are inaccurate because the were preliminary and are dated.

As for the $37,000 incentive to lie or exaggerate: death certificates are signed by individual doctors not hospitals. You are saying that the doctors have either entered into a massive conspiracy on behalf of hospitals, or that hospitals are coercing the thousands of doctors into lying. Pretty impossible.

On Sunday, May 31, 2020 at 1:21:34 PM UTC-7, AnotherJim wrote:
Your response to me:

"If you look at https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...nchs-data.html you can see what is happening.

The total deaths as shown by death certificates is actually below normal. And that red line are the "reported" Wuhan Virus deaths. As you see, they are supposedly shooting through the ceiling while total deaths are not changing.

How can this occur? Because the CDC awards hospitals that report covid-19 deaths a subsidy to pay for additional cleanup of the areas in which the patients could have infected. (I have heard that this is $37,000 each but cannot verify it)."

The data shown on the plot your reference is from the first week in April.. Looking at the table for May 29

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

one sees that the total deaths for the first week of April were actually 69,000, 10,000 higher than the previous month. The site also clearly says that death data have a built-in delay and are updated as needed. So, the data you site are inaccurate because the were preliminary and are dated.

As for the $37,000 incentive to lie or exaggerate: death certificates are signed by individual doctors not hospitals. You are saying that the doctors have either entered into a massive conspiracy on behalf of hospitals, or that hospitals are coercing the thousands of doctors into lying. Pretty impossible.

If you look at https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/c...ess_deaths.htm

Why do you suppose that the upper boundaries for excess deaths for last year at this time would be 1,000 weekly deaths higher? Moreover, we know that essentially ALL of the excess deaths are from people 60 years and older and with serious preexisting conditions. How do you separate those who were expected to die of natural causes from those who die from natural causes and are Wuhan Virus positive?

Do you find it somehow worthy of mention that more people died It the April weeks after months of shut-downs and in the meantime, the prediction is for approximately 37,000 excess suicide deaths this year? And that they are occurring right now and are not publicized?

https://www.factcheck.org/2020/04/ho...9-death-count/

This appears to show the payments being 13,000 + 35,000 if they are ventilated. You cannot put a patient on a ventilator save under direct medical supervision - a hospital. Most of those dying are put on a ventilator. Not purposely miscounting?

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/115126...irus-lockdown/

https://reason.com/2020/05/11/does-q...r-a-denialist/

I saw several interviews in which nurses said that during the night shift that people had died and the doctors had written in the cause of death. And the next day these doctors were called in an "asked" by the hospital administrator to change the cause of death to covid-19.

I do not suspect that this was politically motivated but entirely financial since at this time MOST of the hospitals in this country are approaching bankruptcy because all elective surgery has stopped. A large percentage of these surgeries are cancer related and without cancer treatment a large number of people can be expected to die. This is a significant number since 500,000 people die each year in the US from Cancer.

It turns out that there are only a small percentage of people have postmortem examinations and so covid-19 would not be questioned and that illness has symptoms almost the same as vital pneumonia - the source of most of the deaths in people over 60.

I think you're attempting to connect the financial motivations of hospitals to the political motivations of the Democrat Party who feel that the worst condition this country is in the better their chances in the election.