Another Helmet Thread

On Monday, June 24, 2013 7:28:54 AM UTC-7, Jay Beattie wrote:
On Sunday, June 23, 2013 9:23:52 PM UTC-7, wrote:

On Sunday, June 23, 2013 6:01:25 PM UTC-4, Jay Beattie wrote:



On Sunday, June 23, 2013 1:38:48 PM UTC-7, Phil W Lee wrote:











Like the inevitable and universal reduction in cycling seen















/everywhere/ that has actively promoted foam hats?















What? PDX maybe the magical exception, but you said "everywhere." Here's a summary of the 2012 bicycle count:















"Since the 2000/2001 counts, the overall trend in bicycle traffic was up 211 percent; more than a tripling in use.











Jay, if you want to examine the effect of helmet mandates or promotion on riding, you don't compare 2000 to 2012. You compare data from just before the promotion or mandate to just after. Oregon's had a kids' law since 1994. Tell me whether kids' cycling stayed the same after that was passed.





Helmet promotion, of course, didn't commence and reach full throttle within one year; it came on gradually, probably during the mid 1980s to mid 1990s. How did ridership change during those years?



It went up. http://www.portlandoregon.gov/transp...article/386265 (information after 1991)



Helmet use remained at historic high levels, with 80 percent of all people wearing their helmet.





Helmet use is highest in SW Portland (90 percent) and North Portland (83 percent) and lowest in East Portland (63 percent). Helmet use in 2012 continued to be more prevalent among female riders (86 percent) than for male riders (77 percent)."



I'm astonished by the "80%" claim, and that's partly because my last time in Portland I attempted to do my own counts. I got something a bit over 60%, IIRC.



Gee, the last time I was in Portland (today, yesterday, everyday) and did a count, it was more like 90%.



Admittedly, I didn't write down my counts. OTOH, I didn't spend lots of time in the residential neighborhoods, where in other cities I've seen the lowest percentage in helmets. (Kids riding to their friend's house, for example, or adults out for a quick cruise or trip to the store rarely seem to bother strapping them on, even in MHL states.)



Apparently those kids did not get the "danger danger" message and are not terrified of riding bikes without a helmet. This is odd being that the information environment is saturated with deceptive, pro-helmet propaganda which is particularly convincing to children and the weak-minded. Thank God these little tykes are standing up against the helmet Man.

Update: on my way to work this morning, helmet use was 100%, although ridership was down. Decreased numbers could be due to the rain, but then again, maybe it was the helmet Man telling cyclists it was dangerous to ride a bike. We'll have to watch the stats.

-- Jay Beattie.

gnaw BS

rain produces paranoia

Portlanders are paranoids thus helmet use.

If Portlanders were concerned with safety they'd move to New Mexico.

are Portland roads esp slick ? algae ? slime ? maybe there's

CHIP SEAL !

90% BS BS BS INCROYABLE 90%

barf

On 6/24/2013 8:27 AM, Jay Beattie wrote:

snip

Update: on my way to work this morning, helmet use was 100%, although ridership was down. Decreased numbers could be due to the rain, but then again, maybe it was the helmet Man telling cyclists it was dangerous to ride a bike. We'll have to watch the stats.

Obviously you have not been paying attention to the right people.

Clearly, any decrease in cycling numbers, however temporary, is due
solely to helmet promotion. Weather, time of the year, school schedules,
infrastructure changes, etc., never have anything to do with changes in
cycling numbers.

On Monday, June 24, 2013 10:28:54 AM UTC-4, Jay Beattie wrote:
On Sunday, June 23, 2013 9:23:52 PM UTC-7, fk wrote:

On Sunday, June 23, 2013 6:01:25 PM UTC-4, Jay Beattie wrote:


"Since the 2000/2001 counts, the overall trend in bicycle traffic was up 211 percent; more than a tripling in use.


Jay, if you want to examine the effect of helmet mandates or promotion on riding, you don't compare 2000 to 2012. You compare data from just before the promotion or mandate to just after. Oregon's had a kids' law since 1994. Tell me whether kids' cycling stayed the same after that was passed.

Helmet promotion, of course, didn't commence and reach full throttle within one year; it came on gradually, probably during the mid 1980s to mid 1990s. How did ridership change during those years?



It went up. http://www.portlandoregon.gov/transp...article/386265 (information after 1991)

Oddly, that seems to link to data covering 2000 to 2011, a time of extremely heavy bicycling promotion in Portland. It doesn't cover the time period I asked about, the time when the propagandists started saying "Riding a bike is so dangerous that you have to wear a helmet," nor the time that families were told they'd get tickets if kids rode without them. How about data spanning that time period?

Helmet use is highest in SW Portland (90 percent) and North Portland (83 percent) and lowest in East Portland (63 percent). Helmet use in 2012 continued to be more prevalent among female riders (86 percent) than for male riders (77 percent)."



I'm astonished by the "80%" claim, and that's partly because my last time in Portland I attempted to do my own counts. I got something a bit over 60%, IIRC.



Gee, the last time I was in Portland (today, yesterday, everyday) and did a count, it was more like 90%.

OK, I'm surprised you bothered to do a count. I thought I was the only one doing such things. (I used a counter app in my cell phone, FWIW.)

Admittedly, I didn't write down my counts. OTOH, I didn't spend lots of time in the residential neighborhoods, where in other cities I've seen the lowest percentage in helmets. (Kids riding to their friend's house, for example, or adults out for a quick cruise or trip to the store rarely seem to bother strapping them on, even in MHL states.)

Apparently those kids did not get the "danger danger" message and are not terrified of riding bikes without a helmet.

Well, that's a good thing. It's nice that sanity prevails somewhere.

- Frank Krygowski

On Monday, June 24, 2013 11:27:25 AM UTC-4, Jay Beattie wrote:

Update: on my way to work this morning, helmet use was 100%, although ridership was down. Decreased numbers could be due to the rain, but then again, maybe it was the helmet Man telling cyclists it was dangerous to ride a bike. We'll have to watch the stats.

Heh. Recreational ride today (retirement is nice) with only 33% of the people on the ride wearing helmets. Saw several other cyclists, no helmets. But since we were mostly riding quiet rural roads on a weekday, the count was very low.

Now part of the problem might be definitions. When I say "cyclist" I'm speaking generally. A kid riding in his (or a friend's) driveway counts. The black guy with the milk crate on the main highway counts. If I were to count only the fine-bike-plus-lycra crew, I'm sure the percentage would be over 90% here too, and probably over 95%.

- Frank Krygowski

On Saturday, June 22, 2013 10:26:40 PM UTC-4, Jay Beattie wrote:

According to the LAB, the number of trips by bicycle in the US (not just PDX) more than doubled between 2001 and 2009. http://www.bikeleague.org/content/bi...commuting-data

I just got (by private email) the powerpoint slides used by John Pucher of Rutgers from a talk he gave on bike use and walking in the U.S., titled "Bicycling and Walking in the U.S. 2001-2009, Evidence from the National Household Travel Surveys."

Apparently this data is also covered in his paper: Pucher J, Buehler R, Merom D, Bauman A. Walking and Cycling in the United States, 2001-2009: Evidence from the National Household Travel Surveys. _American Journal of Public Health_ Vol 101, July 2011.

I've just asked a librarian to have that sent to me.

But in the slides, Pucher says the average number of trips per capita per year by bike went from 12.4 to 14.2, for a 14.5% increase from 2001 to 2009. He says the average number of biking hours per capita per year climbed from 4.5 to 4.6 (a 2% change) and the number of miles per capita per year climbed from 19.4 to 24.1 (a 24% increase).

Pucher doesn't seem to think the number of bike trips doubled. Not even close. He's pretty serious about this stuff; it's his entire research focus.

I was going to hit the LAB website, but my browser now says it's untrusted. (Well, I haven't trusted them for years, but that's another issue.) Anyway, I've got an event I have to get to.

So Jay, any chance that your "doubled" is talking about something other than people's bike trips, in general, in the U.S.?

- Frank Krygowski

On Monday, June 24, 2013 3:27:01 PM UTC-7, wrote:
On Saturday, June 22, 2013 10:26:40 PM UTC-4, Jay Beattie wrote:



According to the LAB, the number of trips by bicycle in the US (not just PDX) more than doubled between 2001 and 2009. http://www.bikeleague.org/content/bi...commuting-data



I just got (by private email) the powerpoint slides used by John Pucher of Rutgers from a talk he gave on bike use and walking in the U.S., titled "Bicycling and Walking in the U.S. 2001-2009, Evidence from the National Household Travel Surveys."



Apparently this data is also covered in his paper: Pucher J, Buehler R, Merom D, Bauman A. Walking and Cycling in the United States, 2001-2009: Evidence from the National Household Travel Surveys. _American Journal of Public Health_ Vol 101, July 2011.



I've just asked a librarian to have that sent to me.



But in the slides, Pucher says the average number of trips per capita per year by bike went from 12.4 to 14.2, for a 14.5% increase from 2001 to 2009. He says the average number of biking hours per capita per year climbed from 4.5 to 4.6 (a 2% change) and the number of miles per capita per year climbed from 19.4 to 24.1 (a 24% increase).



Pucher doesn't seem to think the number of bike trips doubled. Not even close. He's pretty serious about this stuff; it's his entire research focus.



I was going to hit the LAB website, but my browser now says it's untrusted. (Well, I haven't trusted them for years, but that's another issue.) Anyway, I've got an event I have to get to.



So Jay, any chance that your "doubled" is talking about something other than people's bike trips, in general, in the U.S.?

All I got is the LAB link which says they doubled. Pucher has them doubling between '79-'99 -- during the era of peak over-promotion, BTW. http://www..policy.rutgers.edu/facul...er/NAmBIKE.PDF

And doubling since 1990 in some cities. http://www.seattlebikeblog.com/2013/...g-and-walking/

But then there is the dismal, almost flat change in the National Household Travel Survey -- which measures the activities of people who answer their phones -- i.e. the last twelve people on the planet who do not have caller ID and get trapped by survey-takers. http://nhts.ornl.gov/2009/pub/Questionnaire.pdf

Hey, I wouldn't sit still for that survey, and I'm a true believer. With that said, I don't doubt that numbers have stayed flat in Toadsuck Arkansas, but that's probably not where the concussions are happening in the first place -- as though it matters. Like I said, I agree that helmets don't prevent most mild TBIs, viz., mild concussion as that term is commonly used (no LOC, some confusion, etc.) That conclusion also matches my personal experience skiing and cycling.

-- Jay Beattie.

On Monday, June 24, 2013 8:48:10 PM UTC-4, Jay Beattie wrote:
On Monday, June 24, 2013 3:27:01 PM UTC-7, fk wrote:

On Saturday, June 22, 2013 10:26:40 PM UTC-4, Jay Beattie wrote:







According to the LAB, the number of trips by bicycle in the US (not just PDX) more than doubled between 2001 and 2009. http://www.bikeleague.org/content/bi...commuting-data







I just got (by private email) the powerpoint slides used by John Pucher of Rutgers from a talk he gave on bike use and walking in the U.S., titled "Bicycling and Walking in the U.S. 2001-2009, Evidence from the National Household Travel Surveys."







Apparently this data is also covered in his paper: Pucher J, Buehler R, Merom D, Bauman A. Walking and Cycling in the United States, 2001-2009: Evidence from the National Household Travel Surveys. _American Journal of Public Health_ Vol 101, July 2011.







I've just asked a librarian to have that sent to me.







But in the slides, Pucher says the average number of trips per capita per year by bike went from 12.4 to 14.2, for a 14.5% increase from 2001 to 2009. He says the average number of biking hours per capita per year climbed from 4.5 to 4.6 (a 2% change) and the number of miles per capita per year climbed from 19.4 to 24.1 (a 24% increase).







Pucher doesn't seem to think the number of bike trips doubled. Not even close. He's pretty serious about this stuff; it's his entire research focus.







I was going to hit the LAB website, but my browser now says it's untrusted. (Well, I haven't trusted them for years, but that's another issue.) Anyway, I've got an event I have to get to.







So Jay, any chance that your "doubled" is talking about something other than people's bike trips, in general, in the U.S.?



All I got is the LAB link which says they doubled. Pucher has them doubling between '79-'99 -- during the era of peak over-promotion, BTW. http://www.policy.rutgers.edu/facult...er/NAmBIKE.PDF



And doubling since 1990 in some cities. http://www.seattlebikeblog.com/2013/...g-and-walking/



But then there is the dismal, almost flat change in the National Household Travel Survey -- which measures the activities of people who answer their phones -- i.e. the last twelve people on the planet who do not have caller ID and get trapped by survey-takers. http://nhts.ornl.gov/2009/pub/Questionnaire.pdf



Hey, I wouldn't sit still for that survey, and I'm a true believer. With that said, I don't doubt that numbers have stayed flat in Toadsuck Arkansas, but that's probably not where the concussions are happening in the first place -- as though it matters. Like I said, I agree that helmets don't prevent most mild TBIs, viz., mild concussion as that term is commonly used (no LOC, some confusion, etc.) That conclusion also matches my personal experience skiing and cycling.


OK. Sounds like we're at least close to agreement that cycling trips haven't doubled, and that helmets don't protect against mild concussions (which are most of them, of course). I think progress is happening. Who'd a thunk it?

- Frank Krygowski

writes:

On Saturday, June 22, 2013 10:26:40 PM UTC-4, Jay Beattie wrote:

According to the LAB, the number of trips by bicycle in the US (not just PDX) more than doubled between 2001 and 2009. http://www.bikeleague.org/content/bi...commuting-data

I just got (by private email) the powerpoint slides used by John Pucher of Rutgers from a talk he gave on bike use and walking in the U.S., titled "Bicycling and Walking in the U.S. 2001-2009, Evidence from the National Household Travel Surveys."

Apparently this data is also covered in his paper: Pucher J, Buehler R, Merom D, Bauman A. Walking and Cycling in the United States, 2001-2009: Evidence from the National Household Travel Surveys. _American Journal of Public Health_ Vol 101, July 2011.

I've just asked a librarian to have that sent to me.

But in the slides, Pucher says the average number of trips per capita per year by bike went from 12.4 to 14.2, for a 14.5% increase from 2001 to 2009. He says the average number of biking hours per capita per year climbed from 4.5 to 4.6 (a 2% change) and the number of miles per capita per year climbed from 19.4 to 24.1 (a 24% increase).

Pucher doesn't seem to think the number of bike trips doubled. Not even close. He's pretty serious about this stuff; it's his entire research focus.

I was going to hit the LAB website, but my browser now says it's untrusted. (Well, I haven't trusted them for years, but that's another issue.) Anyway, I've got an event I have to get to.

So Jay, any chance that your "doubled" is talking about something other than people's bike trips, in general, in the U.S.?


Any chance the data is incomplete?

Shoot, I'm topping your *annual* per capita miles in the morning, then
again in the afternoon, and I don't think anybody's counting.

(And really? The average speed in those numbers appears to be ~5 mph?)

On 6/24/2013 10:47 PM, Jay Beattie wrote:
On Monday, June 24, 2013 6:20:02 PM UTC-7, Frank Krygowski wrote:
On Monday, June 24, 2013 8:48:10 PM UTC-4, Jay Beattie wrote:

On Monday, June 24, 2013 3:27:01 PM UTC-7, fk wrote:



On Saturday, June 22, 2013 10:26:40 PM UTC-4, Jay Beattie wrote:















According to the LAB, the number of trips by bicycle in the US (not just PDX) more than doubled between 2001 and 2009. http://www.bikeleague.org/content/bi...commuting-data















I just got (by private email) the powerpoint slides used by John Pucher of Rutgers from a talk he gave on bike use and walking in the U.S., titled "Bicycling and Walking in the U.S. 2001-2009, Evidence from the National Household Travel Surveys."















Apparently this data is also covered in his paper: Pucher J, Buehler R, Merom D, Bauman A. Walking and Cycling in the United States, 2001-2009: Evidence from the National Household Travel Surveys. _American Journal of Public Health_ Vol 101, July 2011.















I've just asked a librarian to have that sent to me.















But in the slides, Pucher says the average number of trips per capita per year by bike went from 12.4 to 14.2, for a 14.5% increase from 2001 to 2009. He says the average number of biking hours per capita per year climbed from 4.5 to 4.6 (a 2% change) and the number of miles per capita per year climbed from 19.4 to 24.1 (a 24% increase).















Pucher doesn't seem to think the number of bike trips doubled. Not even close. He's pretty serious about this stuff; it's his entire research focus.















I was going to hit the LAB website, but my browser now says it's untrusted. (Well, I haven't trusted them for years, but that's another issue.) Anyway, I've got an event I have to get to.















So Jay, any chance that your "doubled" is talking about something other than people's bike trips, in general, in the U.S.?







All I got is the LAB link which says they doubled. Pucher has them doubling between '79-'99 -- during the era of peak over-promotion, BTW. http://www.policy.rutgers.edu/facult...er/NAmBIKE.PDF







And doubling since 1990 in some cities. http://www.seattlebikeblog.com/2013/...g-and-walking/







But then there is the dismal, almost flat change in the National Household Travel Survey -- which measures the activities of people who answer their phones -- i.e. the last twelve people on the planet who do not have caller ID and get trapped by survey-takers. http://nhts.ornl.gov/2009/pub/Questionnaire.pdf







Hey, I wouldn't sit still for that survey, and I'm a true believer. With that said, I don't doubt that numbers have stayed flat in Toadsuck Arkansas, but that's probably not where the concussions are happening in the first place -- as though it matters. Like I said, I agree that helmets don't prevent most mild TBIs, viz., mild concussion as that term is commonly used (no LOC, some confusion, etc.) That conclusion also matches my personal experience skiing and cycling.





OK. Sounds like we're at least close to agreement that cycling trips haven't doubled, and that helmets don't protect against mild concussions (which are most of them, of course). I think progress is happening. Who'd a thunk it?

Oh don't be a smart ass. I started this conversation with the observation that helmets do not prevent mild concussion. Scroll up. As for the number of trips, we don't have agreement -- during the '79 - '99 time frame, Pucher says it did double. After that, who knows. LAB says yes. The National Household Transportation Survey says no. Not saying that ridership has or hasn't doubled nationally, but I doubt surveying a bunch of people who answer land lines is going to paint a very accurate picture.



There are enough concussions in hockey to prove that helmets don't
prevent them. But what has that to do with cracked skulls and other
impact injuries? And what if these injuries aren't fatalities? Will
they still make the stats that we keep hearing about? And how do stats
show us null hypotheses?

As for cycling trips doubling, where are we talking about? Nationally?
Based on the last several census surveys in Quebec the numbers are
rising. Doubling? Don't know, I'd have to check but what difference
does it make if it's double or somewhat less? They're still increasing.
And so is helmet use. Are these two related? Maybe but I haven't
seen anything to prove or disprove that there is a direct or indirect
relationship. I know that our club membership has gone up 40% in the
last 3 years and we have mandatory helmet requirements. Would it have
gone up 41% without this requirement? Don't know. Doubtful.