Wheels and tires

Sepp Ruf wrote:
John B. wrote:
On Fri, 27 Mar 2020 21:39:44 -0700 (PDT), Tom Kunich wrote:
On Friday, March 27, 2020 at 7:03:18 PM UTC-7, Frank Krygowski wrote:
On Friday, March 27, 2020 at 9:58:50 PM UTC-4, AMuzi wrote:
On 3/27/2020 8:49 PM, John B. wrote:
On Fri, 27 Mar 2020 17:07:41 -0700 (PDT), Tom Kunich wrote:

Turns out that in Italy with 9,134 deaths they only indicate
that 600 of them are due to Covid-19 and the rest of them to
pre-existing health condition which were exacerbated by the
virus and the crummy Italian socialized medical system could
not deal with.

The US now has the supposed highest number of "confirmed
infections". However, they are only testing people over 65 with
certain severe pre-existing health problems so again, the
statistics miss 80% of the infected population. And yet this
still gives us only 1.4% mortality rates.

I finally found a reference to the seasonal flu. It has a 3.83%
mortality rate or 3 times that of Covid-19. Moreover the
seasonal flu kills babies 5 and under and expecting mothers and
mothers who have given birth less than 6 months previous to the
flu. Since there is NO immunity in the entire population to
Covid-19 this is an exceptionally low mortality rate when
compared to the seasonal flu. 80% of the population is
vaccinated yearly for the flu and most of the population have
at least some immunity to it from previous infections.

According to the moronic Great Frankini and his pinhead
supporters actual knowledge doesn't count for anything; fear
and loathing is everything.

Don't worry Frankini - the term, "Up your nose with a rubber
hose" will hold an entirely new meaning for you after this
raging murderous plague has passed.

As usual Tommy has missed the mark. His assertion that only 600
deaths in Italy are due to the virus is somewhat at odds with
what the Italian Government has announced - that (Last updated:
March 28, 2020, 01:23 GMT) there have been 9,134 deaths due to
the virus.

I leave it up to the individual whether he/she/it believes Tom,
or the Government of Italy.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries As for
mortality rate, it is too early to actually calculate but of the
435,949 Currently Infected Patients some 23,519 (5%) are
classified Serious or Critical. Of the 160,400 cases which had
an outcome some 133,057 (83%) were classified as Recovered /
Discharged and 27,343 (17%) died.

Again, I leave it up to the individual whether he/she/it believes
Tom, or a somewhat more authoritative source.

That's funny! Credibility of The Italian Government! Now there's a
low bar.

Yes, I can see why the Italian government might lie just to make Tom
look bad.

- Frank Krygowski

Or you can post lies repeatedly to make anyone else look bad. You're
sort of an equal opportunity jerk. Hey, we can't help it if you don't
have any friends.

"Age, however, doesn’t tell the whole story about who is at risk of
severe disease. In fact, it reveals the underlying vulnerabilities in
the wider population to an illness like Covid-19. Many of these factors
are concentrated among older adults, but younger people with certain
underlying health problems are also at risk. (Sixty percent of
Americans have at least one chronic condition; 40 percent have more
than one.) "

https://www.vox.com/2020/3/12/211737...lderly-seniors

It's coming to get you - even the Great Frankini.
I find it interesting that above you state that , "Turns out that in
Italy with 9,134 deaths they only indicate that 600 of them are due to
Covid-1" and now after I point out that this is a lie you now change your
tune and sing a wholly different song.

Back to facts:
Italy tests the dead, if positive for the Wuhan virus, a death is
automatically recorded as CAUSED by it. There is no second category 'tested
Wuhan positive, but other, or unknown, cause of death.'
Source: Agnello Borelli, Head of Civil Protection of Italy.

Wash your hands and bikes, shave your stupid beards, and wear your masks, NY
"Corona Courier" messengers!
https://datagraver.com/thumbs/1300x1...-mil2-2703.png


Hmmm... if I had to guess at factors correlated to a low rate of
infection, it would be:
1) Government decides to do something about it
2) People in country actually follow government orders

Strike 2, USA. “Life, liberty, and the pursuit of fast spreading viral
infections.�

On Thu, 26 Mar 2020 18:59:10 -0500, AMuzi wrote:
On 3/26/2020 3:23 PM, Tim McNamara wrote:
On Thu, 26 Mar 2020 09:23:43 +0700, John B
wrote:

As for "hair on fire"... hardly :-)

"Hair on fire" is Fox Newsspeak for anyone saying they don't think
Trump is the Greatest President in Human history, especially
criticism based on what Trump actually says instead of what he and
his supporters pretend he said. Covfefe! It was a perfect call!
And you should believe Vladimir over American intelligence
professionals, he only has our best interests at heart.


I take no position as it's very early in this thing. Too early for an
afternoon of tea and medals, too early to hang the inept.

But I did note the hue and cry about 'fascism' when we were the first
country to restrict travel from China in January.

The concerns about fascism predated COVID-19 by several years.

On Thu, 26 Mar 2020 22:13:13 -0500, AMuzi wrote:

Indeed, from small business owners to generals in the field to
Presidents, one assembles hopefully competent advisors, takes their
counsel but at the end a decision must be made.

Something this President has been loath to do, because in his narcissism
he believes he knows better than everyone else.

Tim McNamara writes:

On Thu, 26 Mar 2020 22:13:13 -0500, AMuzi wrote:

Indeed, from small business owners to generals in the field to
Presidents, one assembles hopefully competent advisors, takes their
counsel but at the end a decision must be made.

Something this President has been loath to do, because in his narcissism
he believes he knows better than everyone else.

According to Dr. Fauci.

"The president has listened to what I have said and what the other
people on the task force have said. When I have made recommendations he
has taken them," Fauci added. "The idea of just pitting one against the
other is just not helpful."

Trump isn't a shining example of how to be president. But in this case
he really does seem to be doing what competent advisers suggest. The
decline and fall of the American empire neither started with Trump nor
will it end with him.

--

On 3/28/2020 6:48 PM, Radey Shouman wrote:
Tim McNamara writes:

On Thu, 26 Mar 2020 22:13:13 -0500, AMuzi wrote:

Indeed, from small business owners to generals in the field to
Presidents, one assembles hopefully competent advisors, takes their
counsel but at the end a decision must be made.

Something this President has been loath to do, because in his narcissism
he believes he knows better than everyone else.

According to Dr. Fauci.

"The president has listened to what I have said and what the other
people on the task force have said. When I have made recommendations he
has taken them," Fauci added. "The idea of just pitting one against the
other is just not helpful."

Trump isn't a shining example of how to be president. But in this case
he really does seem to be doing what competent advisers suggest.

"In this case" since when? Certainly not since January!

Again:

“Are there worries about a pandemic at this point?�

Jan. 22 – “No. Not at all. And we have it totally under control.�

Jan. 24 – “It will all work out well.�

Jan. 30 – “We have it very well under control. We have very little
problem in this country at the moment – five. And those people are all
recuperating successfully.�

Feb. 10 – “Looks like by April, you know, in theory, when it gets a
little warmer, it miraculously goes away.�

Feb. 19 – “I think the numbers are getting progressively better as we go.�

Feb. 20 – “…within a couple of days, is going to be down to close to zero.�

Feb. 22 – “We have it very much under control in this country.�

Feb. 25 – “…the Democrats are politicizing the coronavirus… They tried
the impeachment hoax … and this is their new hoax.�

Feb. 26 – “We’re going down, not up.�

Feb. 27 – “It’s going to disappear. One day like a miracle – it will
disappear.�

Feb. 29 – “Everything is really under control.� (The vaccine will be
available) “very rapidly.�

March 2 – “It’s very mild.�

March 4 – “…we’re talking about very small numbers in the United States.�

March 6 – “I like this stuff. I really get it. People are surprised I
understand it. Every one of these doctors said, ‘How do you know so much
about this?’ Maybe I have a natural ability.’ Maybe I should have done
that instead of running for president.� Maybe.

March 6: “Anybody who wants a test can get a test. That’s the bottom line.�

March 7: “I’m not concerned at all. No, we’ve done a great job with it.�

March 10 – “It will go away. Just stay calm. It will go away.�

March 16 – (on his own performance) “I’d rate it a ten.�

March 17 – “I felt it was a pandemic long before it was called a pandemic.�


And since then? "I feel good about it. That's all it is. Just a feeling.
You know, I'm a smart guy." No matter what's said by those who are, you
know, actually educated.

https://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-...eling-n1166566


--
- Frank Krygowski

On Sat, 28 Mar 2020 15:04:05 +0000 (UTC), Ralph Barone
wrote:

John B. wrote:
On Fri, 27 Mar 2020 16:01:43 -0400, Radey Shouman
wrote:

AMuzi writes:

On 3/26/2020 9:44 PM, John B. wrote:
tOn Thu, 26 Mar 2020 20:10:31 -0500, AMuzi
wrote:

On 3/26/2020 7:40 PM, John B. wrote:
On Thu, 26 Mar 2020 20:09:24 +0000 (UTC), Ralph Barone
wrote:

Radey Shouman wrote:
Ralph Barone writes:

John B. wrote:
On Wed, 25 Mar 2020 19:26:32 -0500, AMuzi wrote:

On 3/25/2020 12:43 PM, Tom Kunich wrote:

[snip on-topic bicycle stuff]

On Tuesday, March 24, 2020 at 3:18:09 PM UTC-7, Joerg wrote:

I can't figure out what Newsome thinks he's doing saying that a couple
of weeks from now isn't long enough to keep businesses shut down. Its
been two weeks already and in another couple of weeks all of the
restaurants, the largest business sector, will be dead.


If your auntie was Nancy Pelosi, you could try your hand at
being Governor too!

Given that the virus "new case" rate in the U.S. is now the highest in
the world (as of March 26, 2020, 00:12 GMT) the question of whether
the restaurants go out of business because of a shutdown or whether
they go out of business because their customers catch the virus is
probably immaterial.
--
cheers,

John B.

It?s a tough call. Either way people are going to be
uncomfortable or die,
but my guesses are with the shutdown being the better choice. Considering
that pandemics are just compound interest with a very high interest rate
and a very short compounding period (take out a loan at 250% interest per
week and tell me how that works out for you), I?m surprised at
the lack of
serious response from the guy running things south of 49.

Interesting analogy. Going a bit further, it seems immunity and
bankruptcy are two sides of the same coin, while death works the same
for both compounded debts and pandemic illness. Looks like we elected
an experience-qualified guy after all.


I guess, except his ?go-to? move is declaring bankruptcy and letting the
other people deal with the mess.

So, if you?re paying 250% a week interest on a loan, when is a good time to
start selling stuff on Craigslist for a two week repayment program? The
correct answer is As Soon As You Borrowed The Money. The second best answer
is Right ****ing Now!

Perhaps an even better solution is "don't borrow money at 250% a
week". That would be, 1100% over one year :-)
--
cheers,

John B.


Mr Slocumb-
You have many skills but this isn't one of them.
Taking a $100 loan at 250% per week for 52 weeks on a
regular amortization table sums to:

$1 397 688 109 531 440 000 000 000 000 000.00

Compound interest is a powerful thing, underestimated by
borrowers in every era, in every place.

Which demonstrates that, at least for me, my policy of never borrowing
money is the correct one :-)

But are you sure? I just calculated it and I get
$49,303,806,576,313,200,000,000.00 :-)

--
cheers,

John B.


Simple or compounded weekly?

For compounded weekly I get:

$1,956,991,596,955,520,295,245,474,499,646

after 52 weeks. This value is not exact, I rounded to the nearest
dollar every week.

This is of the same order of magnitude as Mr. Muzi's figure, but not up
to accounting standards.

I suspect that Mr. Slocomb computed 100 * 2.50^52, for
which I get:

$49,303,806,576,313,241,698,304

This is also not exact, as I used floating point arithmetic. It's
pretty close to the same as his figure, however.

The base of 2.50 is not right, though, as that would imply a mere 150%
interest rate.

The correct calculation of 100 * 3.50^52 gives:

$1,956,763,353,344,008,803,942,544,703,488

again using floating point. Again, in the ballpark of Mr. Muzi's.

Either number is large enough (shoot! $10 is pretty big, isn't it)
that my life long theory to NEVER borrow money seems vindicated :-)
--
cheers,

John B.

If you can get away with never borrowing money, that’s great. However, for
certain things like housing, you’re mostly stuck doing it and you just need
to do it wisely. If your mortgage payments are in the same as what your
rent would have been, and you have sufficient monetary buffer room,
borrowing can be a good move.

Well, I was lucky, in a sense, in that I spent the majority of my
married life in Military furnished housing so by the time I had
retired from the Air Force I had a pretty good stash saved. And, to be
honest, I did borrow some money when I bought the house... from my
parents, interest free :-(


But I digress. Note that the original point of my analogy was not to make
people conclude that borrowing money is bad. It was to show that the same
exponential functions describe compound interest and the first part of a
pandemic, and that in both cases, if the growth rate is high enough, you
need to act decisively in the early stages, or things spiral out of control
very quickly.

I spent almost 10 years of my military career stationed in Japan where
there wasn't any credit, at least for Servicemen, and my parents
(standard grade New Englanders) had brained washed me, since the time
I could walk, that money had a value, and I remember when I came
back to the States some credit company talked the Air Base into
letting them address the multitudes :-) I stood there and listened to
what seemed to being described as the "second coming". Now, you can
borrow money... Whoopee!
I was aghast, firstly that the Military had let them on the base and
secondly that anyone could possible believe such stuff....
Unfortunately a great many did/do believe it :-(
--
cheers,

John B.

On Sat, 28 Mar 2020 19:15:12 -0400, Frank Krygowski
wrote:

On 3/28/2020 6:48 PM, Radey Shouman wrote:
Tim McNamara writes:

On Thu, 26 Mar 2020 22:13:13 -0500, AMuzi wrote:

Indeed, from small business owners to generals in the field to
Presidents, one assembles hopefully competent advisors, takes their
counsel but at the end a decision must be made.

Something this President has been loath to do, because in his narcissism
he believes he knows better than everyone else.

According to Dr. Fauci.

"The president has listened to what I have said and what the other
people on the task force have said. When I have made recommendations he
has taken them," Fauci added. "The idea of just pitting one against the
other is just not helpful."

Trump isn't a shining example of how to be president. But in this case
he really does seem to be doing what competent advisers suggest.

"In this case" since when? Certainly not since January!

Again:

“Are there worries about a pandemic at this point?”

Jan. 22 – “No. Not at all. And we have it totally under control.”

Jan. 24 – “It will all work out well.”

Jan. 30 – “We have it very well under control. We have very little
problem in this country at the moment – five. And those people are all
recuperating successfully.”

Feb. 10 – “Looks like by April, you know, in theory, when it gets a
little warmer, it miraculously goes away.”

Feb. 19 – “I think the numbers are getting progressively better as we go.”

Feb. 20 – “…within a couple of days, is going to be down to close to zero.”

Feb. 22 – “We have it very much under control in this country.”

Feb. 25 – “…the Democrats are politicizing the coronavirus… They tried
the impeachment hoax … and this is their new hoax.”

Feb. 26 – “We’re going down, not up.”

Feb. 27 – “It’s going to disappear. One day like a miracle – it will
disappear.”

Feb. 29 – “Everything is really under control.” (The vaccine will be
available) “very rapidly.”

March 2 – “It’s very mild.”

March 4 – “…we’re talking about very small numbers in the United States.”

March 6 – “I like this stuff. I really get it. People are surprised I
understand it. Every one of these doctors said, ‘How do you know so much
about this?’ Maybe I have a natural ability.’ Maybe I should have done
that instead of running for president.” Maybe.

March 6: “Anybody who wants a test can get a test. That’s the bottom line.”

March 7: “I’m not concerned at all. No, we’ve done a great job with it.”

March 10 – “It will go away. Just stay calm. It will go away.”

March 16 – (on his own performance) “I’d rate it a ten.”

March 17 – “I felt it was a pandemic long before it was called a pandemic.”


And since then? "I feel good about it. That's all it is. Just a feeling.
You know, I'm a smart guy." No matter what's said by those who are, you
know, actually educated.

https://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-...eling-n1166566

The Economic Policy Institute (which is a privately funded
'think-tank') estimates that some 14 million jobs could be lost by
summer 2020.
https://www.usnews.com/news/best-sta...sses-by-summer
By states:
California - Projected job loss:1,609,975
Washington - 317,721
Ohio - 505,380
Illinois - 551,061
and so on.
--
cheers,

John B.

Frank Krygowski writes:

On 3/28/2020 6:48 PM, Radey Shouman wrote:
Tim McNamara writes:

On Thu, 26 Mar 2020 22:13:13 -0500, AMuzi wrote:

Indeed, from small business owners to generals in the field to
Presidents, one assembles hopefully competent advisors, takes their
counsel but at the end a decision must be made.

Something this President has been loath to do, because in his narcissism
he believes he knows better than everyone else.

According to Dr. Fauci.

"The president has listened to what I have said and what the other
people on the task force have said. When I have made recommendations he
has taken them," Fauci added. "The idea of just pitting one against the
other is just not helpful."

Trump isn't a shining example of how to be president. But in this case
he really does seem to be doing what competent advisers suggest.

"In this case" since when? Certainly not since January!

I guess I don't see your inside information on what his advisers told
him at those points.


Again:

“Are there worries about a pandemic at this point?�

Jan. 22 – “No. Not at all. And we have it totally under control.�

Jan. 24 – “It will all work out well.�

Jan. 30 – “We have it very well under control. We have very little
problem in this country at the moment – five. And those people are all
recuperating successfully.�

Feb. 10 – “Looks like by April, you know, in theory, when it gets a
little warmer, it miraculously goes away.�

Feb. 19 – “I think the numbers are getting progressively better as we go.�

Feb. 20 – “…within a couple of days, is going to be down to close to zero.�

Feb. 22 – “We have it very much under control in this country.�

Feb. 25 – “…the Democrats are politicizing the coronavirus… They tried
the impeachment hoax … and this is their new hoax.�

Feb. 26 – “We’re going down, not up.�

Feb. 27 – “It’s going to disappear. One day like a miracle – it will
disappear.�

Feb. 29 – “Everything is really under control.� (The vaccine will be
available) “very rapidly.�

March 2 – “It’s very mild.�

March 4 – “…we’re talking about very small numbers in the United States.�

March 6 – “I like this stuff. I really get it. People are surprised
I understand it. Every one of these doctors said, ‘How do you know so
much about this?’ Maybe I have a natural ability.’ Maybe I should have
done that instead of running for president.� Maybe.

March 6: “Anybody who wants a test can get a test. That’s the bottom line.�

March 7: “I’m not concerned at all. No, we’ve done a great job with it.�

March 10 – “It will go away. Just stay calm. It will go away.�

March 16 – (on his own performance) “I’d rate it a ten.�

March 17 – “I felt it was a pandemic long before it was called a pandemic.�


And since then? "I feel good about it. That's all it is. Just a
feeling. You know, I'm a smart guy." No matter what's said by those
who are, you know, actually educated.

https://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-...eling-n1166566

--

On 3/28/2020 9:05 PM, Radey Shouman wrote:
Frank Krygowski writes:

On 3/28/2020 6:48 PM, Radey Shouman wrote:
Tim McNamara writes:

On Thu, 26 Mar 2020 22:13:13 -0500, AMuzi wrote:

Indeed, from small business owners to generals in the field to
Presidents, one assembles hopefully competent advisors, takes their
counsel but at the end a decision must be made.

Something this President has been loath to do, because in his narcissism
he believes he knows better than everyone else.

According to Dr. Fauci.

"The president has listened to what I have said and what the other
people on the task force have said. When I have made recommendations he
has taken them," Fauci added. "The idea of just pitting one against the
other is just not helpful."

Trump isn't a shining example of how to be president. But in this case
he really does seem to be doing what competent advisers suggest.

"In this case" since when? Certainly not since January!

Again:

“Are there worries about a pandemic at this point?�

Jan. 22 – “No. Not at all. And we have it totally under control.�

Jan. 24 – “It will all work out well.�

Jan. 30 – “We have it very well under control. We have very little
problem in this country at the moment – five. And those people are all
recuperating successfully.�

Feb. 10 – “Looks like by April, you know, in theory, when it gets a
little warmer, it miraculously goes away.�

Feb. 19 – “I think the numbers are getting progressively better as we go.�

Feb. 20 – “…within a couple of days, is going to be down to close to zero.�

Feb. 22 – “We have it very much under control in this country.�

Feb. 25 – “…the Democrats are politicizing the coronavirus… They tried
the impeachment hoax … and this is their new hoax.�

Feb. 26 – “We’re going down, not up.�

Feb. 27 – “It’s going to disappear. One day like a miracle – it will
disappear.�

Feb. 29 – “Everything is really under control.� (The vaccine will be
available) “very rapidly.�

March 2 – “It’s very mild.�

March 4 – “…we’re talking about very small numbers in the United States.�

March 6 – “I like this stuff. I really get it. People are surprised
I understand it. Every one of these doctors said, ‘How do you know so
much about this?’ Maybe I have a natural ability.’ Maybe I should have
done that instead of running for president.� Maybe.

March 6: “Anybody who wants a test can get a test. That’s the bottom line.�

March 7: “I’m not concerned at all. No, we’ve done a great job with it.�

March 10 – “It will go away. Just stay calm. It will go away.�

March 16 – (on his own performance) “I’d rate it a ten.�

March 17 – “I felt it was a pandemic long before it was called a pandemic.�


And since then? "I feel good about it. That's all it is. Just a
feeling. You know, I'm a smart guy." No matter what's said by those
who are, you know, actually educated.

https://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-...eling-n1166566


I guess I don't see your inside information on what his advisers told
him at those points.


Correlate the above statements with this information:
https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2020...-cdc-timeline/

It requires some serious cognitive dissonance to believe Trump was in
sync with the CDC, etc. during all that time. Even now, he blathers at
the microphone, then those with actual expertise step up to carefully
and diplomatically "rephrase," to give actual facts.


--
- Frank Krygowski

On 3/28/2020 5:36 PM, Tim McNamara wrote:
On Thu, 26 Mar 2020 18:59:10 -0500, AMuzi wrote:
On 3/26/2020 3:23 PM, Tim McNamara wrote:
On Thu, 26 Mar 2020 09:23:43 +0700, John B
wrote:

As for "hair on fire"... hardly :-)

"Hair on fire" is Fox Newsspeak for anyone saying they don't think
Trump is the Greatest President in Human history, especially
criticism based on what Trump actually says instead of what he and
his supporters pretend he said. Covfefe! It was a perfect call!
And you should believe Vladimir over American intelligence
professionals, he only has our best interests at heart.


I take no position as it's very early in this thing. Too early for an
afternoon of tea and medals, too early to hang the inept.

But I did note the hue and cry about 'fascism' when we were the first
country to restrict travel from China in January.

The concerns about fascism predated COVID-19 by several years.


But the Chinese virus is actually real.

--
Andrew Muzi
www.yellowjersey.org/
Open every day since 1 April, 1971