Fourth year cycle anomalies

On Wednesday, December 2, 2020 at 2:31:28 AM UTC, AMuzi wrote:
On 12/1/2020 4:48 PM, Andre Jute wrote:
Here's a paper which to statisticians, especially those with practical experience, is a thing of beauty:
https://votepatternanalysis.substack...anomalies-2020
Anomalies in Vote Counts and Their Effects on Election 2020

There are too many anomalies to wish away. They all have the same objectionable features and outcomes.

Enjoy!

Andre Jute
Mayor Daley is smiling down from Hell on the Donkey Party

We're blessed to live in an Age of Miracles:

https://www.theepochtimes.com/powell...r_3599859.html

Dominion server assumed bodily into heaven!

Reminds me of Ms Clinton's evidence under supoena being
destroyed by the FBI. Just a small professional courtesy,
nothing to see here, move along now.
--
Andrew Muzi
www.yellowjersey.org/
Open every day since 1 April, 1971

We have a nodding Madonna down the road here. It's a favourite stopping place on our rides with inviting choices of onward roads or a variety of closure loops for the return, so I've had opportunities to see it nod, probably a trick of the light from the shimmering green valley formed by the lush hills flanking the road behind her. Occasionally we've found faithful pilgrims praying to the modest-sized statue; at a guess the head might weigh, at the outside, a 100 pounds. But a WHOLE Dominion server disappeared, now that's an Immaculate Conception.Thing must weigh a ton. Boss Tweed is spinning in envy in his sarcophagus. -- AJ

Am 02.12.2020 um 15:50 schrieb Andre Jute:

I was trying explicitly to evaluate the paper you presented in isolation
(which I feel competent to do) not to decide whther there has been
electoral fraud (which I have an opinion but do not see myself as an
expert).

What I'm pointing out for the second time now is that some of the
most egregious irregularities happened between the centre and the
outlying areas under cover of darkness.

"Are alleged to have happened". Some court cases have been opened with
no evidence presented, some court cases have been thrown out by judges
nominated by Trump, as of today no court case accepted any wrongdoing
involving thousands of votes.

I find it very odd that someone with the privilege of experiencing
clean elections anywhere shouldn't wish the same for the Americans.

I truly wish the the Americans to have honest electionr results, and I
most strongly wish for all Americans to accept honest election results
rather than alleging fraud with no reasonable claim for doubt. The
paper quoted by you was not a reasonable claim for doubt.

On 12/2/2020 9:50 AM, Andre Jute wrote:

Yeah, I got paid in seven figures in private industry...

.... and when you designed the communication modules for the
International Space Station, and when you built the equipment that
solved the AIDS crisis, and when you designed the four-bit computer that
did what only supercomputers could previously do...

Oh wait, which troll is this? It's hard to tell them apart.

--
- Frank Krygowski

On 12/1/2020 8:39 PM, AMuzi wrote:
On 12/1/2020 4:48 PM, Andre Jute wrote:
Here's a paper which to statisticians, especially those with practical
experience, is a thing of beauty:
https://votepatternanalysis.substack...anomalies-2020
Anomalies in Vote Counts and Their Effects on Election 2020

There are too many anomalies to wish away. They all have the same
objectionable features and outcomes.

Enjoy!

Andre Jute
Mayor Daley is smiling down from Hell on the Donkey Party



I've been trying for 2 weeks to explain those numbers to sympathetic
people whose eyes glaze over.Â* Your average guy is shut out from the
data, the analyses and simple graphs generally.

These issues have been examined by many courts, judges, lawyers and
other professionals trained and bound by oaths to guarantee honest
elections. Time after time after time, those experts have found no
reason to overturn the election results. Even judges appointed by Trump
have scolded attorneys for their ludicrous Trumpian claims.

But there certainly is evidence of bias! Once again, reality is biased
against the right wing.


--
- Frank Krygowski

On Tuesday, December 1, 2020 at 2:49:02 PM UTC-8, Andre Jute wrote:
Here's a paper which to statisticians, especially those with practical experience, is a thing of beauty:
https://votepatternanalysis.substack...anomalies-2020
Anomalies in Vote Counts and Their Effects on Election 2020

There are too many anomalies to wish away. They all have the same objectionable features and outcomes.
This is totally aside from the election results from Arizona - a state that is MORE than strongly Red. They did not actually look into what caused such a dramatic shift in votes.

On Tuesday, December 1, 2020 at 6:24:28 PM UTC-8, News 2020 wrote:
On Tue, 01 Dec 2020 19:39:47 -0600, AMuzi wrote:

On 12/1/2020 4:48 PM, Andre Jute wrote:
Here's a paper which to statisticians, especially those with practical
experience, is a thing of beauty:
https://votepatternanalysis.substack...anomalies-2020
Anomalies in Vote Counts and Their Effects on Election 2020

There are too many anomalies to wish away. They all have the same
objectionable features and outcomes.

Enjoy!

Andre Jute Mayor Daley is smiling down from Hell on the Donkey Party



I've been trying for 2 weeks to explain those numbers to sympathetic
people whose eyes glaze over. Your average guy is shut out from the
data, the analyses and simple graphs generally.
You do not have to read beyond the abstract to know that articles is a
croc of ****.

You can not reliably commpare updates from different electoral area or
even polling stations.

You need the comparisons to be between voting patterns at the same
polling booths for the same election.

Given that most people vote the same way every time and there are only a
few 'swingers', the voting patterns tend to be consistent as people also
tend to vote during the same time period. This is reflected in the
current practise to give ongoing updates of the tallies.

So, if the encumbent is popular, they often get early voters supporting
them, but voters for challengers may turn up later. I've seen tallies
swing either way.

Predictability of elElections in the USA also suffer from the fact that
voting is non-compulsory and there is no way of knowing how many are
actually going to turn up to votes. So, if there was a concerted effort
to rally people on the day, surges can take place.
You still haven't explained how you could be an supposed Aussie and know so much about American politics?

Rolf Mantel wrote:
Am 02.12.2020 um 14:17 schrieb Andre Jute:

But I'm afraid Rolf's certainties utterly escape me, and I ascribe
them to the fact that he is German (they do elections right in
Germany)

About the prognostic power of German state media:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cw1hgEXXEAAoZNY.jpg

As you are evidently not a statistician or a mathematician, please let
me re-phrase my analysis in simple words.

Did you, before pointing fingers like German politicians have done, analyze
the year-on-year sizes of Sweden's senior populations and did you consider
differing European demographics due to certain events in the first half of
the 20th century?


Back to cycles, and JFTStatisticalR: My Y2018 cycle shows only normal, post
24-month warranty threshold anomalies: a uselessly overweight adjustable
stem suddenly loose, sharply reminding me that I had never intended to keep
it anyway. To be safe, I will look up the exact time of purchase to avoid
sitting on the bike while components act peculiar on the pi 3.14 year mark.

On Wednesday, December 2, 2020 at 6:24:16 AM UTC-8, Rolf Mantel wrote:
Am 02.12.2020 um 14:17 schrieb Andre Jute:

But I'm afraid Rolf's certainties utterly escape me, and I ascribe
them to the fact that he is German (they do elections right in
Germany)
As you are evidently not a statistician or a mathematician, please let
me re-phrase my analysis in simple words.

The paper says "if everything were random, there would be small and
large wards, and there would be wards strongly for one candidate and
wards strongly for another candidate. The results of this election
don't show this typical random pattern (is there something fishy?)"

I say "The US election system sets up large wards in cities and small
wards outside cities (in most states; I believe New Hampshire uses
electoral wards significantly smaller than county size, so they can
report the "earliest election results" from a village with 10 families)."
I say "The current voter preference is clearly different in large cities
than outside."
So we have a correlation that is outside the statistical analysis, so
the situation is not fishy but can be explained by a link outside the
realm of statistics.
I'm also amazed that Rolf thinks the mainstream media in the USA is
reliable.
When CNN reports "in-person results from County xxx are out" and fox
reports "in-person results from county xxx are out", I guess that they
are more likley right rather than wrong.
If you would now tell me that in fact the results are reported by small
wards rather than by county (in Pennsilvania, Wisconsin or Georgia),
that would be extremely surprising to me, and I don't think that any
political bias is hidden behind these statements.
When on two occasions two blocks of votes show up in Pennsylvania and they are 99.9% for Biden you have not only the right to question this but the responsibility to do so. You can count on one hand the number of times this occurred in Germany and you know why and how that occurred. Nevada and Arizona had very odd results and Nevada has also declared a recount. One of the affidavits in Wisconsin was from a poll watcher who said that entire blocks of votes would all have not just the same name but the identical signature.. Postal employees were told to back date mailed out ballots and there is an affidavit on that as well. For all of Jay's ranting people have received the death penalty purely on the weight of an affidavit followed by a interrogation in court.

On Wednesday, December 2, 2020 at 12:05:09 p.m. UTC-5, Sepp Ruf wrote:
Rolf Mantel wrote:
Am 02.12.2020 um 14:17 schrieb Andre Jute:

But I'm afraid Rolf's certainties utterly escape me, and I ascribe
them to the fact that he is German (they do elections right in
Germany)
About the prognostic power of German state media:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cw1hgEXXEAAoZNY.jpg
As you are evidently not a statistician or a mathematician, please let
me re-phrase my analysis in simple words.
Did you, before pointing fingers like German politicians have done, analyze
the year-on-year sizes of Sweden's senior populations and did you consider
differing European demographics due to certain events in the first half of
the 20th century?


Back to cycles, and JFTStatisticalR: My Y2018 cycle shows only normal, post
24-month warranty threshold anomalies: a uselessly overweight adjustable
stem suddenly loose, sharply reminding me that I had never intended to keep
it anyway. To be safe, I will look up the exact time of purchase to avoid
sitting on the bike while components act peculiar on the pi 3.14 year mark.

I have an adjustable stem on my winter MTB that's converted to dropbar with V-brakes and bar end shifters. A few seconds with a 5mm hex key allows me to either raise or lower the handlebar and then rotate it it, to meet different road/snow/ice conditions I might encounter and when I might wish to change my riding position.

Cheers

On Wednesday, December 2, 2020 at 8:15:49 AM UTC-8, Frank Krygowski wrote:
On 12/2/2020 9:50 AM, Andre Jute wrote:

Yeah, I got paid in seven figures in private industry...

... and when you designed the communication modules for the
International Space Station, and when you built the equipment that
solved the AIDS crisis, and when you designed the four-bit computer that
did what only supercomputers could previously do...

Oh wait, which troll is this? It's hard to tell them apart.

I understand your ignorance of electronic engineering since you never managed to make a success out of your engineering degree. And 8008 was not a 4 bit computer. This was in the original proposal but before the design was accomplished the 8080 was released and used. But your stupid argument still holds no water. The initial iteration was in 1986. You remember back that far don't you? That was when your claim was that AIDS was not a homosexual disease because the population that had it were almost entirely straight. Of course that left out the small fact that every one of them either received a blood transfusion or were the child of a mother who received a blood transfusion. But that didn't stop your claims in an attempt to "prove" that AIDS was not a homosexual disease despite the fact that science knew that the only way to transmit this disease was via homosexual sex or blood transfusions from people that were infected homosexuals. In your ****ing "wokeness" you were perfectly willing to throw away the life of someone else. That is because you are a ****ing loser and always have been.

Perhaps you might explain why my resume is posted on-line but you need to ask me about this stuff because you're not bright enough to look it up yourself?

My design and programming for the Space Station project was in 1995 to 1997.. Other than having to know the international communications standards and having to meet them and prove it at NASA meetings through complete affirmation via second party testing, it was a simple project mostly accomplished via hardware.

I was just talking via email to an ex-boss and asked him what my job was exactly and he said "herding cats with PhD's" which I thought rather funny inasmuch as he had a PhD and was originally the Vice President of Berkeley Computer Company that built the west coast leg of ARCnet, later to become the Internet by changing the addressing structures. I worked for him later where he was paying me a LOT of money to accomplish things his cats couldn't do.

What does it feel like to live in total denial your entire life?