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#61
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DRIVERLESS ELECTRIC CARS
On Tuesday, October 10, 2017 at 1:19:43 AM UTC-4, John B. wrote:
On Mon, 9 Oct 2017 22:37:43 -0400, Frank Krygowski wrote: On 10/9/2017 3:13 PM, Jeff Liebermann wrote: On Mon, 9 Oct 2017 11:30:40 -0700 (PDT), Frank Krygowski wrote: I wasn't doubting that auto-cars will exist and become popular. I was doubting that the government will "shove them down our throats." I wonder whether they will ever become popular given that they quite obviously will be more expensive, perhaps much more expensive, I am reading numbers as large as $75,000 for Google's autonomous driving vehicle. Didn't SMS recently post something about buying a new car? I seem to remember numbers in the range of a third of that value. I imagine you're right, that in the short term these things will be expensive. But I expect that long term the price difference will be greatly reduced. (I imagine the phone in my pocket would have been worth ten thousand dollars 10 years ago, if it existed at all.) But what do you get for this money? After all probably everyone reading this is capable of driving an automobile so what advantage does this, rather expensive, self-driver provide? Well: To my astonishment, I find that I'm driving long distances much more often since I retired. It's not just retirement that influenced that (although it enabled it); there have been family matters that have arisen, new obligations and avocations, different circles of friends, etc. But driving an hour each way is now far, far too common. And sitting behind a steering wheel always seems damned unproductive. Even if self-driving worked only on limited access freeways, it would ease a lot of frustration. I think it would make the experience of freeway driving much more like the experience of riding a train in a private compartment. The couple times I've done that, I found it to be fairly pleasant. Another problem that might arise. Will a self-driver work if one visits Canada, or Mexico? I guess it would depend on whether the system required a two-way communication network. If so, Canada might achieve that before the U.S. did. (I assume a bunch of U.S. states would declare this to be a muslim or communist conspiracy and refuse to buy into it.) - Frank Krygowski |
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#62
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DRIVERLESS ELECTRIC CARS
On 10/10/2017 12:19 AM, John B. wrote:
.... But what do you get for this money? After all probably everyone reading this is capable of driving an automobile so what advantage does this, rather expensive, self-driver provide? ... -- Cheers, John B. I would imagine that your insurance rates would be lower if you used the self-driving feature a lot. A computer will drive a lot more consistently than a human will, and somehow the insurance companies will find a way to tell how much you use it. They can already tell how you were operating a newer car when you get in a collision, and in addition to all the usual contrls, Teslas already indicate if the autopilot was in use or not. |
#63
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DRIVERLESS ELECTRIC CARS
On Mon, 9 Oct 2017 22:37:43 -0400, Frank Krygowski
wrote: I wasn't doubting that auto-cars will exist and become popular. I was doubting that the government will "shove them down our throats." Well, let's pretend that the "Smart Driverless Highway of the Future(tm)" is funded with our tax dollars, in order to provide a suitable arena for testing driverless vehicles. There's little room in urban areas to build such a highway, so it will likely be carved out of the existing infrastructure, such a replacing the car pool lane or ripping up light rail. In order to use this highway, you need a fully automated and instrumented driverless vehicle, which can be a car, truck, motorcycle, IoT thingie, eBike, or maybe even a bicycle. It should be possible to coordinate this mix of speeds and sizes with proper programming. The "shove it down our throats" would be at the front end, when the "Smart Driverless Highway of the Future(tm)" is funded, probably at the expense of diverting funds for existing highway construction on the assumption that soon everyone will be driving or riding a driverless vehicle. "Research" funding will continue in this manner until the numbers become sufficiently large for a taxpayers revolt. More simply, "If you want to play in my sand box, you need to follow my rules". All this begs the question "Why would the government do this"? Well, the auto makers have quite a bit of pull in Washington and will not hesitate to use it to promote their interests. Saving 30,000 lives per year sounds really good during an election. Promoting the highway of the future makes normally reactionary politicians sound progressive which should fit in nicely with "Make America Great Again". More mundane is that building a highway involves the movement of huge amounts of public funds, much of which can be diverted for other purposes. Of course, there's a substantial demand for a driverless car, initially at the high end, but which will eventually expand to less sophisticated vehicles, like bicycles. Nothings says "I want it" more than paying for it in advance: "Over 35,000 Tesla owners bought ‘fully self-driving’ feature despite still being unavailable, sources say" https://electrek.co/2017/10/10/tesla-autopilot-owners-bought-fully-self-driving-capability/ Bonus Drivel: "Disney's Magic Highway - 1958" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TwA7c_rNbJE (8:47) The driverless car starts at about 3:30. -- Jeff Liebermann 150 Felker St #D http://www.LearnByDestroying.com Santa Cruz CA 95060 http://802.11junk.com Skype: JeffLiebermann AE6KS 831-336-2558 |
#64
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DRIVERLESS ELECTRIC CARS
On Mon, 9 Oct 2017 17:45:53 -0500, DougC
wrote: Oddly enough, the wiki page for bicycle bomb has no mention of Israel at all, even though it's probably had to diffuse more bombs than any of the other locations mentioned (maybe even... all of the other locations combined?) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bicycle_bomb In the Arab/Israeli version I read of, the bicycle frame tubes were packed with explosives and a timer and just left somewhere in a public place. Things have really changed in Israel over the years. When I was there for a short time in the 1970's, there were few bicycle racks. That's because if you left a bicycle unattended, it was assumed to be a bicycle bomb. The bomb squad would arrive, attached their own explosives, and disarm it by blowing it up. Decorating someone else's bicycle to look like a bicycle bomb seemed to be a popular pastime. As a bonus, on Saturday, cars were designated targets for rock throwing Hasidic kids enforcing the orthodox ban on travel on the Sabbath. I don't recall if they threw rocks at bicycles, but probably not. It was quite a zoo. When there was an explosion, the reaction of the crowd was rather odd. I was in Tel Aviv on Friday evening in the entertainment district when something blew up nearby. Half the crowd was running away from the blast, while the other half was running towards the blast to see what had happened. More people were injured in the ensuing crunch than by the bomb. Roll forward about 40 years, and bicycles are now quite popular, mostly because of high taxes on cars and an extreme shortage of parking places: https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/blocking-the-sidewalk-tel-aviv-s-inspectors-got-your-bike-1.463015 https://www.tel-o-fun.co.il/en/ Even the rock throwing has become more subdued: "Minister Threatens to Cut Funds From Tel Aviv Bike Project if Allowed to Run on Yom Kippur" https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/minister-threatens-to-cut-funds-from-tel-aviv-bike-project-if-allowed-to-run-on-yom-kippur-1.462288 -- Jeff Liebermann 150 Felker St #D http://www.LearnByDestroying.com Santa Cruz CA 95060 http://802.11junk.com Skype: JeffLiebermann AE6KS 831-336-2558 |
#65
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DRIVERLESS ELECTRIC CARS
On Mon, 9 Oct 2017 11:20:58 -0700 (PDT), Frank Krygowski
wrote: On Sunday, October 8, 2017 at 11:32:54 PM UTC-4, Jeff Liebermann wrote: Now, back to my question. How much are you willing to relinquish for the privilege of riding your bicycle on the driverless highway of the future? Are you ready for robo-bike? I'm not willing to relinquish my right to travel by bicycle. - Frank Krygowski I didn't say you couldn't ride your bicycle. I said that you couldn't ride if safely on the highway of the future. At worst, all it would require is that you carry or attach several thousand(?) dollars in technology so that the driverless vehicles would be able to detect and avoid hitting you on your bicycle. Well, maybe a guidance computer that would control your speed and direction in order to optimize traffic flow. -- Jeff Liebermann 150 Felker St #D http://www.LearnByDestroying.com Santa Cruz CA 95060 http://802.11junk.com Skype: JeffLiebermann AE6KS 831-336-2558 |
#67
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DRIVERLESS ELECTRIC CARS
On 10/10/2017 11:46 AM, Jeff Liebermann wrote:
On Mon, 9 Oct 2017 17:45:53 -0500, DougC wrote: Oddly enough, the wiki page for bicycle bomb has no mention of Israel at all, even though it's probably had to diffuse more bombs than any of the other locations mentioned (maybe even... all of the other locations combined?) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bicycle_bomb In the Arab/Israeli version I read of, the bicycle frame tubes were packed with explosives and a timer and just left somewhere in a public place. Things have really changed in Israel over the years. When I was there for a short time in the 1970's, there were few bicycle racks. That's because if you left a bicycle unattended, it was assumed to be a bicycle bomb. The bomb squad would arrive, attached their own explosives, and disarm it by blowing it up. Decorating someone else's bicycle to look like a bicycle bomb seemed to be a popular pastime. As a bonus, on Saturday, cars were designated targets for rock throwing Hasidic kids enforcing the orthodox ban on travel on the Sabbath. I don't recall if they threw rocks at bicycles, but probably not. It was quite a zoo. When there was an explosion, the reaction of the crowd was rather odd. I was in Tel Aviv on Friday evening in the entertainment district when something blew up nearby. Half the crowd was running away from the blast, while the other half was running towards the blast to see what had happened. More people were injured in the ensuing crunch than by the bomb. Roll forward about 40 years, and bicycles are now quite popular, mostly because of high taxes on cars and an extreme shortage of parking places: https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/blocking-the-sidewalk-tel-aviv-s-inspectors-got-your-bike-1.463015 https://www.tel-o-fun.co.il/en/ Even the rock throwing has become more subdued: "Minister Threatens to Cut Funds From Tel Aviv Bike Project if Allowed to Run on Yom Kippur" https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/minister-threatens-to-cut-funds-from-tel-aviv-bike-project-if-allowed-to-run-on-yom-kippur-1.462288 while the other half was running towards the blast to see what had happened. maybe gawkers, maybe some ZAKA volunteers, maybe both. http://www.aish.com/jw/id/48894137.html -- Andrew Muzi www.yellowjersey.org/ Open every day since 1 April, 1971 |
#68
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DRIVERLESS ELECTRIC CARS
On Mon, 9 Oct 2017 14:55:03 -0500, DougC
wrote: I think eventually self-driving cars will be a lot more efficient than what we have now... Maybe. Personally, I see some initial problems where a line of self-driving vehicles proceed at the speed of the slowest vehicle. Even if a passing algorithm is perfected, there will still be a tendency for similar speed vehicles to "clump" together in traffic. My guess(tm) is that the self-driving vehicle will be the equivalent of filling the highway with very conservative drivers, that follow every driving regulations, never go past the speed limit, and are courteous to other vehicles to the point of paranoia. -- Jeff Liebermann 150 Felker St #D http://www.LearnByDestroying.com Santa Cruz CA 95060 http://802.11junk.com Skype: JeffLiebermann AE6KS 831-336-2558 |
#69
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DRIVERLESS ELECTRIC CARS
On 10/10/2017 12:16 PM, Jeff Liebermann wrote:
On Mon, 9 Oct 2017 22:37:43 -0400, Frank Krygowski wrote: I wasn't doubting that auto-cars will exist and become popular. I was doubting that the government will "shove them down our throats." Well, let's pretend that the "Smart Driverless Highway of the Future(tm)" is funded with our tax dollars, in order to provide a suitable arena for testing driverless vehicles. But they're testing these things now on ordinary streets. They're attempting to make the cars, not the highway, "smart." -- - Frank Krygowski |
#70
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DRIVERLESS ELECTRIC CARS
Frank Krygowski writes:
On Tuesday, October 10, 2017 at 1:19:43 AM UTC-4, John B. wrote: On Mon, 9 Oct 2017 22:37:43 -0400, Frank Krygowski wrote: On 10/9/2017 3:13 PM, Jeff Liebermann wrote: On Mon, 9 Oct 2017 11:30:40 -0700 (PDT), Frank Krygowski wrote: I wasn't doubting that auto-cars will exist and become popular. I was doubting that the government will "shove them down our throats." I wonder whether they will ever become popular given that they quite obviously will be more expensive, perhaps much more expensive, I am reading numbers as large as $75,000 for Google's autonomous driving vehicle. Didn't SMS recently post something about buying a new car? I seem to remember numbers in the range of a third of that value. I imagine you're right, that in the short term these things will be expensive. But I expect that long term the price difference will be greatly reduced. (I imagine the phone in my pocket would have been worth ten thousand dollars 10 years ago, if it existed at all.) But what do you get for this money? After all probably everyone reading this is capable of driving an automobile so what advantage does this, rather expensive, self-driver provide? Well: To my astonishment, I find that I'm driving long distances much more often since I retired. It's not just retirement that influenced that (although it enabled it); there have been family matters that have arisen, new obligations and avocations, different circles of friends, etc. But driving an hour each way is now far, far too common. And sitting behind a steering wheel always seems damned unproductive. Even if self-driving worked only on limited access freeways, it would ease a lot of frustration. I think it would make the experience of freeway driving much more like the experience of riding a train in a private compartment. The couple times I've done that, I found it to be fairly pleasant. Another problem that might arise. Will a self-driver work if one visits Canada, or Mexico? I guess it would depend on whether the system required a two-way communication network. If so, Canada might achieve that before the U.S. did. (I assume a bunch of U.S. states would declare this to be a muslim or communist conspiracy and refuse to buy into it.) With current technology recognition of traffic signs is still very brittle, see for example: https://spectrum.ieee.org/cars-that-...ing-algorithms or https://arstechnica.com/cars/2017/09...-driving-cars/ An octagonal red sign may scream "stop" to you and me, even if it actually says "alto" or "pare", but we're not machine vision programs, which are "taught" to recognize signs without anything like understanding of the concepts human beings use. For example, flat surface, road sign, octagon ... I suspect that if the powers that be (not all strictly government) desire widespread autonomous vehicles that some system of transponders not intelligible to unaided human beings will be required, and pedestrians and cyclists and drivers of antique vehicles will have to adapt or be squashed. To many of those powers this is a feature, not a bug. -- |
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