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#1
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Predictions please.
Hi All,
This weekend is my big race of the year. I amuse several of my riding buddies with often quite accurate predictions of their (and my) times over various courses, and now the pressure is on to predict our time for this race. Little do they know that all I do is punch in data into various online calculators and make some educated WAGs to arrive at my predictions. This time I need help with my prediction, so anyone interested give me your prediction and your reasoning. Whoever is closest wins a postcard (at the least!). The race is Trondheim-Oslo in Norway. 540km with 4,400m of total ascent. Profile he http://www.styrkeproven.no/upload/20...oypeprofil.pdf The weather while perfect now is forecast (as usual) to be rain and slight headwinds. I have done the race 5 times with times from 24 hours down to 19. This is the first time I will do the race as part of a team with organized support cars, etc. The combination of the positive effect of support logistics and riding with a team make any assesment based on my previous performances not very useful. And I am WAY stonger now than ever before. Our team is looking for sub 15 hours, and if the weather cooperates that should be theoretically possible. Last time the team (with about 10 of the current 29 members participating, the rest are new guys myself included) managed 15:13. That same year a new record was set by Rye of 13:28. This year we were 1 hour behind Rye in the 230km Mjøsa Rundt a few weeks ago. Our problem is we may overdo it the first 200km up to the mountain. In our group rides the tendency has been to ride too fast and then for (almost) everyone to not admit it afterward that they thought it was too fast. So I full expect several guys to be used up already after the first 200km. I think eating enough will also be a problem for many. Our team captain has told me speciffically that I have to let him know how I'm doing up the hill because I am particularly important for the downhill/flat section from km 200 to 350. I'm pretty sure I'll be fine at least to km 450 where the road gets more hilly and I will perhaps have run dry. If I have to let go, it will probably be there. So the team's weakness is sub-optimal discipline, and perhaps too ambitious a goal. My weakness is I may have to go too hard in the beginning up the hill to keep up, such that I go empty earlier than desired. How fast will the team manage? Will I hold on to the finish? If not, where will I let go and what will my time be? Joseph |
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#2
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Predictions please.
On Jun 20, 7:13 pm, joseph wrote:
The race is Trondheim-Oslo in Norway. 540km with 4,400m of total ascent. Last time the team (with about 10 of the current 29 members participating, the rest are new guys myself included) managed 15:13. How do you time a team? 15th guy? And how do you set up a rotation? |
#3
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Predictions please.
On Jun 20, 10:13 am, "
wrote: Hi All, This weekend is my big race of the year. I amuse several of my riding buddies with often quite accurate predictions of their (and my) times over various courses, and now the pressure is on to predict our time for this race. Little do they know that all I do is punch in data into various online calculators and make some educated WAGs to arrive at my predictions. This time I need help with my prediction, so anyone interested give me your prediction and your reasoning. Whoever is closest wins a postcard (at the least!). The race is Trondheim-Oslo in Norway. 540km with 4,400m of total ascent. Profile hehttp://www.styrkeproven.no/upload/20...oypeprofil.pdf The weather while perfect now is forecast (as usual) to be rain and slight headwinds. I have done the race 5 times with times from 24 hours down to 19. This is the first time I will do the race as part of a team with organized support cars, etc. The combination of the positive effect of support logistics and riding with a team make any assesment based on my previous performances not very useful. And I am WAY stonger now than ever before. Our team is looking for sub 15 hours, and if the weather cooperates that should be theoretically possible. Last time the team (with about 10 of the current 29 members participating, the rest are new guys myself included) managed 15:13. That same year a new record was set by Rye of 13:28. This year we were 1 hour behind Rye in the 230km Mjøsa Rundt a few weeks ago. Our problem is we may overdo it the first 200km up to the mountain. In our group rides the tendency has been to ride too fast and then for (almost) everyone to not admit it afterward that they thought it was too fast. So I full expect several guys to be used up already after the first 200km. I think eating enough will also be a problem for many. Our team captain has told me speciffically that I have to let him know how I'm doing up the hill because I am particularly important for the downhill/flat section from km 200 to 350. I'm pretty sure I'll be fine at least to km 450 where the road gets more hilly and I will perhaps have run dry. If I have to let go, it will probably be there. So the team's weakness is sub-optimal discipline, and perhaps too ambitious a goal. My weakness is I may have to go too hard in the beginning up the hill to keep up, such that I go empty earlier than desired. How fast will the team manage? Will I hold on to the finish? If not, where will I let go and what will my time be? Unsupported you averaged 28 kph in a 540 km ride with 4400 m of climbing? I find that pretty hard to believe. I assume that didn't include the time spend in rest stops along the way. |
#4
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Predictions please.
On Jun 21, 7:25 pm, wrote:
On Jun 20, 7:13 pm, joseph wrote: The race is Trondheim-Oslo in Norway. 540km with 4,400m of total ascent. Last time the team (with about 10 of the current 29 members participating, the rest are new guys myself included) managed 15:13. How do you time a team? 15th guy? And how do you set up a rotation? The team competition is officially the 10th guy's time. Or maybe the cumulative of the top 10, I don't recall. Ideally 13-15 out of the 28 starters will finish together. The rotation is constant except it is locked on hills and in dangerous sections like tunnels and successive roundabouts. Ideally at least 24 guys should be in the roatation at any time, with that number decreasing as guys get used up. Joseph |
#5
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Predictions please.
On Jun 21, 7:39 pm, wrote:
On Jun 20, 10:13 am, " wrote: Hi All, This weekend is my big race of the year. I amuse several of my riding buddies with often quite accurate predictions of their (and my) times over various courses, and now the pressure is on to predict our time for this race. Little do they know that all I do is punch in data into various online calculators and make some educated WAGs to arrive at my predictions. This time I need help with my prediction, so anyone interested give me your prediction and your reasoning. Whoever is closest wins a postcard (at the least!). The race is Trondheim-Oslo in Norway. 540km with 4,400m of total ascent. Profile hehttp://www.styrkeproven.no/upload/20...oypeprofil.pdf The weather while perfect now is forecast (as usual) to be rain and slight headwinds. I have done the race 5 times with times from 24 hours down to 19. This is the first time I will do the race as part of a team with organized support cars, etc. The combination of the positive effect of support logistics and riding with a team make any assesment based on my previous performances not very useful. And I am WAY stonger now than ever before. Our team is looking for sub 15 hours, and if the weather cooperates that should be theoretically possible. Last time the team (with about 10 of the current 29 members participating, the rest are new guys myself included) managed 15:13. That same year a new record was set by Rye of 13:28. This year we were 1 hour behind Rye in the 230km Mjøsa Rundt a few weeks ago. Our problem is we may overdo it the first 200km up to the mountain. In our group rides the tendency has been to ride too fast and then for (almost) everyone to not admit it afterward that they thought it was too fast. So I full expect several guys to be used up already after the first 200km. I think eating enough will also be a problem for many. Our team captain has told me speciffically that I have to let him know how I'm doing up the hill because I am particularly important for the downhill/flat section from km 200 to 350. I'm pretty sure I'll be fine at least to km 450 where the road gets more hilly and I will perhaps have run dry. If I have to let go, it will probably be there. So the team's weakness is sub-optimal discipline, and perhaps too ambitious a goal. My weakness is I may have to go too hard in the beginning up the hill to keep up, such that I go empty earlier than desired. How fast will the team manage? Will I hold on to the finish? If not, where will I let go and what will my time be? Unsupported you averaged 28 kph in a 540 km ride with 4400 m of climbing? I find that pretty hard to believe. I assume that didn't include the time spend in rest stops along the way. Then you will also find it hard to believe that there were over 600 men and women who did it faster than me. My times were hardly in the fast category. The times given include all stops. The race is an organized thing so there are food depots ever 60km or so where you can fill up water bottles, get bananas, jam sandwiches, and stuff. It's not like I had to waste time going into a gas station to buy candy or something. The average speed of the winners is about 40km/h including stops. Oh yeah, I forgot the winning team doesn't stop. One of the reasons they won the last 6 years in a row. Here are my split times for last year: http://results.ultimate.dk/live/fron...w&l=no&Pid=994 and here are the splits for the current record holders: http://results.ultimate.dk/live/fron...w&l=dk&Pid=255 That kind of puts it into perspective. Joseph |
#6
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Predictions please.
On Jun 21, 8:33 pm, joseph wrote:
Ideally at least 24 guys should be in the roatation at any time, with that number decreasing as guys get used up. Yikes. For team TTs, the pacing strategy is pretty tricky. You have to go easier on hills (which you know) and with a tailwind (which you may not have), or else you'll shatter your team. |
#7
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Predictions please.
On Jun 21, 9:41 pm, wrote:
On Jun 21, 8:33 pm, joseph wrote: Ideally at least 24 guys should be in the roatation at any time, with that number decreasing as guys get used up. Yikes. For team TTs, the pacing strategy is pretty tricky. You have to go easier on hills (which you know) and with a tailwind (which you may not have), or else you'll shatter your team. A constant rotation is very hard to regulate the speed of too. The terrain is on for the most part well graded roads, so the yo-yo effect is pretty small and we can get a good rhythm going. Perhaps the biggest problem is the rather wide range of fitness and experience of the riders. The age range is 21 to 62, and the weight range is from 55 to 98kg. I don't know the flat 10km ITT times but I guess it ranges from 13:00 to 17:00. Should be interesting. We have scheduled 3 stops, but we also get bottle hand-offs on some of the hills. The captain has never been a captain before, but he has ridden the race with 2 well established teams several times so he knows how it should be done. He has also 2 very good co-captains who know how this should be done too, so even though there are a bunch of new guys, it has the potential to go smoothly. Right now the weather looks like rain and headwinds, temps from 9C to 15C. The headwind makes things go slower but for my own selfish needs helps as it slows things up on the hills. Levels the playing field a bit when the road tilts upward. I'm not too worried about getting dropped on a hill, just in having to go too hard such that I burn up too many calories that I won't be able to replenish and bonking somewhere. Joseph |
#8
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Predictions please.
On Jun 21, 9:54 pm, Joseph wrote:
The headwind makes things go slower but for my own selfish needs helps as it slows things up on the hills. Levels the playing field a bit when the road tilts upward. Hills and tailwinds tend to expose and exacerbate differences in the abilities of the riders. Headwinds and downhills tend to equalize. Combine a hill with a tailwind, and that's bad news. |
#9
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Predictions please.
On Jun 21, 4:02 pm, wrote:
On Jun 21, 9:54 pm, Joseph wrote: The headwind makes things go slower but for my own selfish needs helps as it slows things up on the hills. Levels the playing field a bit when the road tilts upward. Hills and tailwinds tend to expose and exacerbate differences in the abilities of the riders. Headwinds and downhills tend to equalize. Combine a hill with a tailwind, and that's bad news. dumbass, changes in speed exacerbate differences. but, can you explain why tailwinds make a race more selective ? |
#10
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Predictions please.
On Jun 21, 10:07 pm, "
wrote: On Jun 21, 4:02 pm, wrote: On Jun 21, 9:54 pm, Joseph wrote: The headwind makes things go slower but for my own selfish needs helps as it slows things up on the hills. Levels the playing field a bit when the road tilts upward. Hills and tailwinds tend to expose and exacerbate differences in the abilities of the riders. Headwinds and downhills tend to equalize. Combine a hill with a tailwind, and that's bad news. dumbass, changes in speed exacerbate differences. but, can you explain why tailwinds make a race more selective ? Tailwinds lessen the advantage of drafting as the components of resistance change their relative importance. This means weaker riders who otherwise might have been able to suck wheel, get dropped on the flats. Tailwinds up hills hurt the weaker riders because they are weaker on hills because of their lower power to weight ratio. As the speed goes up due to the tailwind, their deficiencies become more apparent as the rate of vertical ascent increases. Joseph |
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