Lance won't win #5 this year

"Gerrit Stolte" wrote in message
...
On Fri, 18 Jul 2003 20:39:26 GMT, "Corey Green"
wrote:

Yes, Lance gave up more time to Ullrich than he wanted.
Yes, Lance got beat again in the first time trial of the Tour.
Yes, Lance beat every other competitor.
No, Lance hasn't made a single attack yet.
Yes, Lance is saying the same stuff he has said every year about not
feeling
this, and having this concern him, and that Ullrich is his primary
competitor.

I don't think people are looking hard enough to see what the difference
is
between Lance and Ullrich.

Including today Jan and Lance have competed against each other four times
in
ITT's in the TdF.

1999 - No Jan..

2000 - Only 1 ITT. Lance beat Jan by 25 seconds.
Lance beats Jan by an overall 6'02". That makes 5' 37" gained
by
Lance in the TTT and mountains.

2001 - ITT#1 - Lance wins by 1 minute.
ITT #2 - Lance wins by 1'39"
Lance beats Jan by an overall 6'44". That makes 4'05" gained
by
Lance in the TTT and mountains.

2002 - No Jan.

2003 - ITT #1 - Jan wins by 1'36"

So let's suppose that Lance loses another 1'30" on the last time trial of
the tour. That makes three minutes lost in ITT events. If we take the
smallest amount that Lance gained in the mountains and TTT of 4'05" means
that he should still win by a minute over Jan. Lance has already shown
that
his team can dust Jan and Bianchi in the mountains when they need to and
took advantage of that already.

So I don't really understand how people are jumping to the conclusion
that
it is all over for Lance. Sure there isn't much margin for error, but the
only real change I see this year is that Jan has put forth some
spectacular
ITT's.

He has lost less in the first mountain stages, he has lost less in the
TTT and he's in better shape than at any time since 1997. Go figure ...


Agreed - but he has to limit his losses in four consecutive mountain stages
to about a minute or less. If he is more than 1'30" behind going into the
final time trial it isn't going to be as simple as everyone is making it out
to be.

On Fri, 18 Jul 2003 19:20:21 GMT, "dwjones"
wrote:

isn't the final time trial a team time trial and i can not see ullrich's
team matching lance's in that time trial.

Are you serious, when was the last time you saw two TTT's in the TdF,
you're clueless!

1981 was the last time there were two TTT's in the same Tour.
Raleigh won both the 40km stage 1b and the
77km stage 4.

Dan


http://www.angelfire.com/realm/cvccb...r/top_ten.html

Keith wrote:
On Fri, 18 Jul 2003 19:20:21 GMT, "dwjones"
wrote:


isn't the final time trial a team time trial and i can not see ullrich's
team matching lance's in that time trial.


Are you serious, when was the last time you saw two TTT's in the TdF,
you're clueless!

"Keith" wrote in message
...
On Fri, 18 Jul 2003 19:20:21 GMT, "dwjones"
wrote:

isn't the final time trial a team time trial and i can not see ullrich's
team matching lance's in that time trial.

Are you serious, when was the last time you saw two TTT's in the TdF,
you're clueless!

I don't know about him, but I said it *never* happens and someone researched
it and came up with 1979.

i am not cluesless i read that there are 2 team time trials (with the second
one taking place on the day before they enter paris) in the english version
of the offical tour de france website
"Nick Burns" wrote in message
...

"Keith" wrote in message
...
On Fri, 18 Jul 2003 19:20:21 GMT, "dwjones"
wrote:

isn't the final time trial a team time trial and i can not see
ullrich's
team matching lance's in that time trial.

Are you serious, when was the last time you saw two TTT's in the TdF,
you're clueless!

I don't know about him, but I said it *never* happens and someone
researched
it and came up with 1979.

No, Lance hasn't made a single attack yet.

That one sentence says speaks volumes. Postal is doing things
differently this year, and I'm not sure they planned it that way.


I don't think people are looking hard enough to see what the difference is
between Lance and Ullrich.

The main difference is that at the moment Jan appears stronger than
Lance.


Lance has already shown that
his team can dust Jan and Bianchi in the mountains when they need to and
took advantage of that already.

If Jan had been dusted on the Alpe d'Huez, he'd be more than 34
seconds back.

So I don't really understand how people are jumping to the conclusion that
it is all over for Lance. Sure there isn't much margin for error, but the
only real change I see this year is that Jan has put forth some spectacular
ITT's.

You need to look more closely, because you aren't seeing that Lance is
descendant and other riders are ascendant. You have two strong riders
that have gained time in the last several stages. And Vino was a
surprise to many in the ITT.

Lance can still win, but it won't be because he won in 1999 or 2002.
If that were true, Indurain would have won in '96, Riis in '97,
Ullrich in '98.

On Sat, 19 Jul 2003 02:55:23 GMT, "dwjones"
wrote:

i am not cluesless i read that there are 2 team time trials (with the second
one taking place on the day before they enter paris) in the english version
of the offical tour de france website

I hope they don't write that you have to jump in the river on that
site...

jumphress wrote:

No, Lance hasn't made a single attack yet.

That one sentence says speaks volumes. Postal is doing things
differently this year, and I'm not sure they planned it that way.

I don't think people are looking hard enough to see what the difference is
between Lance and Ullrich.

The main difference is that at the moment Jan appears stronger than
Lance.

Lance has already shown that
his team can dust Jan and Bianchi in the mountains when they need to and
took advantage of that already.

If Jan had been dusted on the Alpe d'Huez, he'd be more than 34
seconds back.

So I don't really understand how people are jumping to the conclusion that
it is all over for Lance. Sure there isn't much margin for error, but the
only real change I see this year is that Jan has put forth some spectacular
ITT's.

You need to look more closely, because you aren't seeing that Lance is
descendant and other riders are ascendant. You have two strong riders
that have gained time in the last several stages. And Vino was a
surprise to many in the ITT.

Lance can still win, but it won't be because he won in 1999 or 2002.
If that were true, Indurain would have won in '96, Riis in '97,
Ullrich in '98.

Actually it means ROBIC would be winning since 1947...