Armstrong's Tour De France Time Trials

"Nick Burns" wrote in message news:...

"Stewart Fleming" wrote in message
news:1067461343.496514@ns...


Rik O'Shea wrote:

Most people who race or follow cycling know that it is effectively a
sport in which one's performance is governed to a large extent by ones
power output. A good sprinter is defined by someone with a high
top-end power output, a good climber by a high power to weight ratio
and a time trialist by their power output at aerobic threshold. Of
course there are other factors that come into play but power tends to
be the key overriding factor.

Don't forget that HR data is often useful :-)

That is a good point. If we had the HR values for each of the ITTs, we
would
probably see that Lance was not working nearly as hard in the earlier ITTs
when he was not a contender for the stage or GC.

Still, you have to be realistic Stew. Those numbers are hard to come by
and
even then would not tell the whole story. I agree it would possibly have
proven the point that Lance went harder in the ITTs in the Tours that he
won, but you would not know unless you have them. I guess that is why it
is
foolish for the coach to not track HR and keep in in the athlete's data.


Seriously, your estimates for Indurain's aerobic power are on the high
side. 515-550W would be typical for his Tour-winning days. I don't
recall exactly, but I think the 550W figure was at/before his successful
hour record attempt.

The highest estimate I ever saw for any of his ITT wins was 550 and that
was
not knowing his drag values.

John Cobb had an article last year (sorry, but I didn't record the link)
where he detailed the work that had been done over some period of time
on improving Armstrong's power output and reducing frontal area and
other drag characteristics in order to improve time-trial performance.

AFAIK, they have made changes each year. The most work was done prior to
the
1999 Tour. More win tunnel work is done each year and there are not only
pos
ition refinements but each hardware vendor has brought new and faster
equipment as well. I can't think of a single component that was not
changed
in his TT setup.

"Phil Holman" wrote in message
ink.net...

the comparison is made between Mig at his peak and a pretentious LA

Yeah, that Armstrong - always has been full of himself. Not sure what that
has to do with the fact that he's younger than Indurain, though.

Andy Coggan

That is a good point. If we had the HR values for each of the ITTs, we
would
probably see that Lance was not working nearly as hard in the earlier ITTs
when he was not a contender for the stage or GC.

Still, you have to be realistic Stew. Those numbers are hard to come by
and
even then would not tell the whole story. I agree it would possibly have
proven the point that Lance went harder in the ITTs in the Tours that he
won, but you would not know unless you have them. I guess that is why it
is
foolish for the coach to not track HR and keep in in the athlete's data.


Seriously, your estimates for Indurain's aerobic power are on the high
side. 515-550W would be typical for his Tour-winning days. I don't
recall exactly, but I think the 550W figure was at/before his successful
hour record attempt.

The highest estimate I ever saw for any of his ITT wins was 550 and that
was
not knowing his drag values.

John Cobb had an article last year (sorry, but I didn't record the link)
where he detailed the work that had been done over some period of time
on improving Armstrong's power output and reducing frontal area and
other drag characteristics in order to improve time-trial performance.

AFAIK, they have made changes each year. The most work was done prior to
the
1999 Tour. More win tunnel work is done each year and there are not only
pos
ition refinements but each hardware vendor has brought new and faster
equipment as well. I can't think of a single component that was not
changed
in his TT setup.




• Fastest ITT's over 30 km
1 David Millar (GBr)2003/stage 19 54.359 km/h
2 Lance Armstrong (USA)2000/stage 19 53.986 km/h
3 Jan Ullrich (Ger)2000/stage 19 53.642 km/h

I don't see Indurain in the top 3... Or anywhere in the TT records..

http://www.angelfire.com/realm/cvccb...r/eddy/tts.htm

"Andy Coggan" wrote in message
nk.net...
"Phil Holman" wrote in message
ink.net...

the comparison is made between Mig at his peak and a pretentious LA

Yeah, that Armstrong - always has been full of himself. Not sure what
that
has to do with the fact that he's younger than Indurain, though.

Aspiring might have been a better word but they both convey ambition.
You must not have any lint to pick out of your belly button right now
:-)

Phil Holman

"Jonathan v.d. Sluis" wrote in message
...
Phil Holman schreef in berichtnieuws
et...

"armstrong" wrote in message
...
What is it you're trying to say?

Probably that poorly interpreted data can imply questionable
performance
enhancement.

Where's the error in Rik O'Shea's interpretation? I'm not saying
it's right,
because I hardly understand it, but I'd just like to know what you
think is
wrong with it.

Not a lot. But he fails to recognize that the difference between Lance
and Miguel wasn't so much power output as position related drag.
Indurain probably was a more powerful rider but his real speed
advantage was from an extremely aero position. Remember that LeMond
took a bunch of wind tunnel tests and couldn't improve his position at
all.

Dear Posters,
Thank you for your feedback. My original post was quite long as it
needed to contain an unabridged set of facts relating to Armstrong's
TdF time trials. I will attempt to summaries some of the issues that
have been raised in relation to these time trial performances.

The original post detailed the average speeds and relative power
output required by Armstrong in his pre and post cancer TdF time
trials. However the crux of the post isn't necessarily the speed or
power requirements but the percentage increase in power required to
support his post cancer performances compared to his pre cancer
performance.

Pre-cancer Performance Summary
Armstrong's average speed was compared to Indurain's and the power
increase required to match Indurain's winning time was calculated.

Average Speed: 45.447 km/h
Power at aerobic threshold: 420W (note 1)
Percentage power increase required to match Induarin's time: 27%

Note 1: The baseline value of 420W is on the high side for someone of
Armstrong's build, but even if one uses a value of 390W or 360W the
most important value, which is the percentage increase in power
required to match Indurain, still remains at a constant 27%

Reference has been made to the fact that Armstrong did not "go all
out" in the Time Trials as he was not going for the GC. Yes it is true
that TdF cyclists who are not in contention for GC can use it to some
extent as an "easy day" (generally finishing between 12 and 18 minutes
behind Indurain in the TTs in question). This however is not the case
for Armstrong who rode all his '93-'96 Time Trial at his max capacity
(except the second TT of the 1995 TdF - Stage 19).

Prologue TT Performance
Armstrong's Prologue TTs placing/performances are similar (slightly
worse) than his TT performance. He went "all out" as you would say in
these performances. He finished in 81st place in the '93 prologue, 47
seconds behind Indurain. In a televised interview from that year he is
shown in a despondent mood relating to his performance – not the
attitude of a man who was "taking it easy".

First Time Trial Performance
The '93-'96 time trial results are for the first time trails of the
tour (exception 1995 TdF - Stage 19). This TT generally takes place
after about eight days of relatively "easy" racing – the mountains
have not yet been reached. At this stage of the race riders are fresh
and some one like Armstrong could challenge for the GC. Lets take the
TT stage 9 1994 Tour were Armstrong was in 8th and Indurain in 7th
position going into the stage 9 Périgueux-Bergerac, 64 km ITT.

Armstrong started 2 minutes in front of Indurain and the strategy as
outlined by his Motorola director sportif was to not go out 100% and
risk going anaerobic, effectively keeping some reserves for when
Indurain would eventually pass him and to work off Indurain's pace
(yes use Indurain as a pace maker of sorts). The goal was to try to
limit his losses to "only" 3 to 4 minutes to Indurain.

It is true to say that Armstrong (resplendent in his World
Championship jersey) was indeed working at his aerobic maximum to hold
onto Indurain's pace. Despite this Armstrong finished 6'23" behind
Indurain.

In the televised interview afterwards Armstrong explained that he
would never beat Indurain in the Tour and his goal was to try to
improve his time trial capability by 1" (one minute) a year.

Armstrong's performance in this TT (6'23" behind Indurain) is
comparable to his other TT performances against Indurain in terms of
time gaps and average speeds.


Pre-cancer Performance Summary
Average Speed: 50.229 km/h
Difference pre-post cancer (50.229 - 45.447) = 4.782 km/h
Pre-cancer power at aerobic threshold: 420W (note 2)
Post-cancer power at aerobic threshold: 567W (note 2)
Percentage power increase: 35% (note 3)

Note 2: The baseline value of 420W is on the high side for someone of
Armstrong's build, but even if one uses a value of 390W or 360W the
most important value, which is the percentage increase in power,
required still remains at 35%

Note 3: 35% is the power increase required by Armstrong's assuming
that all other factors remain constant (i.e. drag coefficient and
frontal area of body). It is acknowledged that this is not the case
and these factors will be explored subsequently.

(1) Reduced body mass – It is reported that Armstrong lost around
20lbs in body mass. The question is how would this have improved his
TTs. Body mass is not a variable in the formula for Drag Force due to
air resistance so directly it would have no effect. Indirectly a
reduction in body mass also leads to a reduction of the frontal area
of the body. Generally speaking a reduction of 20lbs would typically
only decrease one's time in a flat time trial by 0.8%

(2) Improved TT equipment – There really haven't been any major
increases in TT performance due to aero equipment since the mid ‘90s.
The last major performance increase due to equipment was the aero bar
that Lemond popularized by winning the TdF in '89. So no extraordinary
advances in equipment between the years '96 and '99. Disk wheels, aero
bars, helmet and skin suit still remain the main stay in this area –
this is all Rominger required to set the World Hour record in '94 when
he broke the 55km/hr mark using a normal TT position. Rominger used a
standard diamond shape Colnago frame using the normal aero bar
position. This type of aero equipment used by Rominger at the time was
also available to the Motorola team and was used by Armstrong in his
'93-96 TdF time trials. Indeed all teams used it.

(3) Improved Aero position – Armstrong like the rest of his Motorola
colleges would have had their time trials positions analyzed quite
rigorously between '93 and '96. The significant of aerodynamic drag in
cycling has been analyses to death over the last ten years and was
understood quite well before that – even going as far back to the
original Moser hour records of ‘83/84. However it is true that
Armstrong would have refined his aero position with reference to
reducing drag coefficient (a function of the shape of the body) and
the frontal area of body in the last few years.

(4) Improved Aerobic Threshold - If we are extremely generous and say
that 50% of Armstrong's post cancer speed increase (2.391 km/hr) came
from an improved aerodynamic position that still leaves 50% (73 watts)
due to improved aerobic capacity. This still represents a remarkable
increase in aerobic power in an already highly trained professional
athlete. With mature top class athletes who have trained for a number
of years it is extremely difficult to even gain a 10-15 watt
improvement in aerobic threshold power. When they have high-end
aerobic thresholds that exceed 400W a significant training stress is
required to even maintain this level let alone increase it. Top class
athletes are tested up to half a dozen times a year to determine what
their aerobic thresholds are (these days even amateurs have it done).
It is performed in a lab environment using an ergo meter under ideal
conditions and almost an exact value +- 5 watts can be determined for
aerobic threshold. I would find it very interesting if Armstrong's
results for this lab test pre and post cancer were made available and
the exact improvements of the potentially most successful TdF
competitor could be quantified.

Thanks & regards
-R

Rik O'Shea wrote:

Prologue TT Performance
Armstrong's Prologue TTs placing/performances are similar (slightly
worse) than his TT performance. He went "all out" as you would say in
these performances. He finished in 81st place in the '93 prologue, 47
seconds behind Indurain. In a televised interview from that year he is
shown in a despondent mood relating to his performance – not the
attitude of a man who was "taking it easy".

If I remember correctly, in the 1993 prologue, his attitude was that he
could win the thing and went absolutely flat out from the start. Then
on reaching the big hill in the middle (Futuroscope), he blew to bits.
That goes some way to explaining the despondency.

"Stewart Fleming" wrote in message
news:1067541664.731419@ns...


Rik O'Shea wrote:

Prologue TT Performance
Armstrong's Prologue TTs placing/performances are similar (slightly
worse) than his TT performance. He went "all out" as you would say in
these performances. He finished in 81st place in the '93 prologue, 47
seconds behind Indurain. In a televised interview from that year he is
shown in a despondent mood relating to his performance – not the
attitude of a man who was "taking it easy".

If I remember correctly, in the 1993 prologue, his attitude was that he
could win the thing and went absolutely flat out from the start. Then
on reaching the big hill in the middle (Futuroscope), he blew to bits.
That goes some way to explaining the despondency.

Yes, he did say he wanted to win and yes he blew it (his own words). There
was a story recently (this year) where he and Max Testa (and a few others)
talk about those first few stages where Lance wanted to win (or "not lose"
as he puts it) and how Lance got "hyper motivated" to win a stage after Max
Schiandri blew a stage win by letting up on his pedals to throw his arms in
the air before the line and allowing Riis to go past him for the win.

Anyway...he was never in yellow and never in a position to do anything for
an ITT win.

"Rik O'Shea" wrote in message
om...
Dear Posters,
Thank you for your feedback. My original post was quite long as it
needed to contain an unabridged set of facts relating to Armstrong's
TdF time trials. I will attempt to summaries some of the issues that
have been raised in relation to these time trial performances.

The original post detailed the average speeds and relative power
output required by Armstrong in his pre and post cancer TdF time
trials. However the crux of the post isn't necessarily the speed or
power requirements but the percentage increase in power required to
support his post cancer performances compared to his pre cancer
performance.

Pre-cancer Performance Summary
Armstrong's average speed was compared to Indurain's and the power
increase required to match Indurain's winning time was calculated.

Average Speed: 45.447 km/h
Power at aerobic threshold: 420W (note 1)
Percentage power increase required to match Induarin's time: 27%

Note 1: The baseline value of 420W is on the high side for someone of
Armstrong's build, but even if one uses a value of 390W or 360W the
most important value, which is the percentage increase in power
required to match Indurain, still remains at a constant 27%

Reference has been made to the fact that Armstrong did not "go all
out" in the Time Trials as he was not going for the GC. Yes it is true
that TdF cyclists who are not in contention for GC can use it to some
extent as an "easy day" (generally finishing between 12 and 18 minutes
behind Indurain in the TTs in question).

Right, and then?

This however is not the case
for Armstrong who rode all his '93-'96 Time Trial at his max capacity
(except the second TT of the 1995 TdF - Stage 19).

How in the hell do you figure that? You originally stated that Lance was in
yellow(keep in mind this was his first Tour and his first full year as a
pro).

BTW, the results from the 1996 Tour can be thrown out entirely because he
was already showing sign of illness, it was just not known until that
October that it was cancer.





Prologue TT Performance
Armstrong's Prologue TTs placing/performances are similar (slightly
worse) than his TT performance. He went "all out" as you would say in
these performances. He finished in 81st place in the '93 prologue, 47
seconds behind Indurain. In a televised interview from that year he is
shown in a despondent mood relating to his performance - not the
attitude of a man who was "taking it easy".

First Time Trial Performance
The '93-'96 time trial results are for the first time trails of the
tour (exception 1995 TdF - Stage 19). This TT generally takes place
after about eight days of relatively "easy" racing - the mountains
have not yet been reached. At this stage of the race riders are fresh
and some one like Armstrong could challenge for the GC. Lets take the
TT stage 9 1994 Tour were Armstrong was in 8th and Indurain in 7th
position going into the stage 9 Périgueux-Bergerac, 64 km ITT.

Armstrong started 2 minutes in front of Indurain and the strategy as
outlined by his Motorola director sportif was to not go out 100% and
risk going anaerobic, effectively keeping some reserves for when
Indurain would eventually pass him and to work off Indurain's pace
(yes use Indurain as a pace maker of sorts). The goal was to try to
limit his losses to "only" 3 to 4 minutes to Indurain.

It is true to say that Armstrong (resplendent in his World
Championship jersey) was indeed working at his aerobic maximum to hold
onto Indurain's pace. Despite this Armstrong finished 6'23" behind
Indurain.

In the televised interview afterwards Armstrong explained that he
would never beat Indurain in the Tour and his goal was to try to
improve his time trial capability by 1" (one minute) a year.

Armstrong's performance in this TT (6'23" behind Indurain) is
comparable to his other TT performances against Indurain in terms of
time gaps and average speeds.


Pre-cancer Performance Summary
Average Speed: 50.229 km/h
Difference pre-post cancer (50.229 - 45.447) = 4.782 km/h
Pre-cancer power at aerobic threshold: 420W (note 2)
Post-cancer power at aerobic threshold: 567W (note 2)
Percentage power increase: 35% (note 3)

Note 2: The baseline value of 420W is on the high side for someone of
Armstrong's build, but even if one uses a value of 390W or 360W the
most important value, which is the percentage increase in power,
required still remains at 35%

Note 3: 35% is the power increase required by Armstrong's assuming
that all other factors remain constant (i.e. drag coefficient and
frontal area of body). It is acknowledged that this is not the case
and these factors will be explored subsequently.

(1) Reduced body mass - It is reported that Armstrong lost around
20lbs in body mass. The question is how would this have improved his
TTs. Body mass is not a variable in the formula for Drag Force due to
air resistance so directly it would have no effect. Indirectly a
reduction in body mass also leads to a reduction of the frontal area
of the body. Generally speaking a reduction of 20lbs would typically
only decrease one's time in a flat time trial by 0.8%

(2) Improved TT equipment - There really haven't been any major
increases in TT performance due to aero equipment since the mid '90s.
The last major performance increase due to equipment was the aero bar
that Lemond popularized by winning the TdF in '89. So no extraordinary
advances in equipment between the years '96 and '99. Disk wheels, aero
bars, helmet and skin suit still remain the main stay in this area -
this is all Rominger required to set the World Hour record in '94 when
he broke the 55km/hr mark using a normal TT position. Rominger used a
standard diamond shape Colnago frame using the normal aero bar
position. This type of aero equipment used by Rominger at the time was
also available to the Motorola team and was used by Armstrong in his
'93-96 TdF time trials. Indeed all teams used it.

(3) Improved Aero position - Armstrong like the rest of his Motorola
colleges would have had their time trials positions analyzed quite
rigorously between '93 and '96. The significant of aerodynamic drag in
cycling has been analyses to death over the last ten years and was
understood quite well before that - even going as far back to the
original Moser hour records of '83/84. However it is true that
Armstrong would have refined his aero position with reference to
reducing drag coefficient (a function of the shape of the body) and
the frontal area of body in the last few years.

(4) Improved Aerobic Threshold - If we are extremely generous and say
that 50% of Armstrong's post cancer speed increase (2.391 km/hr) came
from an improved aerodynamic position that still leaves 50% (73 watts)
due to improved aerobic capacity. This still represents a remarkable
increase in aerobic power in an already highly trained professional
athlete. With mature top class athletes who have trained for a number
of years it is extremely difficult to even gain a 10-15 watt
improvement in aerobic threshold power. When they have high-end
aerobic thresholds that exceed 400W a significant training stress is
required to even maintain this level let alone increase it. Top class
athletes are tested up to half a dozen times a year to determine what
their aerobic thresholds are (these days even amateurs have it done).
It is performed in a lab environment using an ergo meter under ideal
conditions and almost an exact value +- 5 watts can be determined for
aerobic threshold. I would find it very interesting if Armstrong's
results for this lab test pre and post cancer were made available and
the exact improvements of the potentially most successful TdF
competitor could be quantified.

Thanks & regards
-R

"Tom Arsenault" wrote in message
om...

That is a good point. If we had the HR values for each of the ITTs, we
would
probably see that Lance was not working nearly as hard in the earlier
ITTs
when he was not a contender for the stage or GC.

Still, you have to be realistic Stew. Those numbers are hard to come
by
and
even then would not tell the whole story. I agree it would possibly
have
proven the point that Lance went harder in the ITTs in the Tours that
he
won, but you would not know unless you have them. I guess that is why
it
is
foolish for the coach to not track HR and keep in in the athlete's
data.


Seriously, your estimates for Indurain's aerobic power are on the
high
side. 515-550W would be typical for his Tour-winning days. I don't
recall exactly, but I think the 550W figure was at/before his
successful
hour record attempt.

The highest estimate I ever saw for any of his ITT wins was 550 and
that
was
not knowing his drag values.

John Cobb had an article last year (sorry, but I didn't record the
link)
where he detailed the work that had been done over some period of
time
on improving Armstrong's power output and reducing frontal area and
other drag characteristics in order to improve time-trial
performance.

AFAIK, they have made changes each year. The most work was done prior
to
the
1999 Tour. More win tunnel work is done each year and there are not
only
pos
ition refinements but each hardware vendor has brought new and faster
equipment as well. I can't think of a single component that was not
changed
in his TT setup.




. Fastest ITT's over 30 km
1 David Millar (GBr)2003/stage 19 54.359 km/h
2 Lance Armstrong (USA)2000/stage 19 53.986 km/h
3 Jan Ullrich (Ger)2000/stage 19 53.642 km/h

I don't see Indurain in the top 3... Or anywhere in the TT records..

http://www.angelfire.com/realm/cvccb...r/eddy/tts.htm

Is this a joke? I only made reference to 2003 because the OP claimed Lance
was in yellow in 1993, and I asked him if he was mistakenly getting that
from Lance's 2003 result. I think everyone is aware that Mig's last year was
1996.