What made the last big bike boom? The next?

Jeff Potter wrote:

I think the last big bike boom was in the mid-70's. It happened because
of:

*cheap light 10speeds hit US shores for 1st time
*US bicentennial, with its urge to 'ride across the country'
*high gas prices
*low-traffic backroads
*plentiful public cultu living downtowns, nonlitigious property
owners, generous campsite finding, cheap tentsites

The 70s bike boom was fueled mainly by teenagers and twenty somethings
buying inexpensive ten speeds. You could jump on your ten speed
wearing sneakers and cut-off jeans and ride. People liked the sporty
look and feel of those bikes, but most ended up sitting in garages.

In the '80s, mountain bikes became more popular because they were more
comfortable and easier to ride. And they made more sense for the
majority of casual riders. By then, road bikes were getting more
expensive, and only the real enthusiasts were buying them.

I think the drop bar road bike will remain a specialty item for
enthusiasts. I hope that the overwhelming emphasis on speed, racing,
and stupid-light everything will moderate, and people will get back
buying stable, durable "sport touring" bikes. But I don't yearn for
the days of toe clips and friction shifting.

Will there be another bike boom? Not likely. I suspect that most
people under 35 grew up not using bikes for getting around. They were
driven or bused to school and other activities. If they rode a bike at
all, it was probably to go a few blocks to a friends house, or to hang
out at the local convenience store. They can't conceive of riding a
bike even 5-10 miles. And they're probably not comfortable with riding
in traffic.

If there is to be another bike boom among the general public, it will
likely be driven by some sort of hybrid bike that's easy to ride,
comfortable, inexpensive, and can be ridden in ordinary clothes.

Art Harris

I'm not sure it has to happen at the expense of cars. They appear to be here
to stay. Why can't bikes be ADDED to them?

People getting out in the fresh air and exploring around could become
popular---as long as some open roads remain.

But maybe things are getting too built-in. I think that bikes work for fun
and transit as long as there are options to the 'ring of death' that the car
creates (especially in suburbs). But the last time I drove (a car) in the
eastern part of the US, I was just SHOCKED at how hellish the traffic was
everywhere including the countryside. I got immediately and intolerably
claustrophobic. Yet it's where the people are. We in Michigan seem to have
it about 5 TIMES EASIER in terms of car traffic congestion.

Art Harris wrote:

If there is to be another bike boom among the general public, it will
likely be driven by some sort of hybrid bike that's easy to ride,
comfortable, inexpensive, and can be ridden in ordinary clothes.

--

Jeff Potter
****
*Out Your Backdoor * http://www.outyourbackdoor.com
publisher of outdoor/indoor do-it-yourself culture...
...offering "small world" views on bikes, bows, books, movies...
...rare books on ski, bike, boat culture, plus a Gulf Coast thriller
about smalltown smuggling ... more radical novels coming up!
...original downloadable music ... and articles galore!
plus national "Off the Beaten Path" travel forums! HOLY SMOKES!

In article ,
AMcom says...
I'm not sure it has to happen at the expense of cars. They appear to be here
to stay. Why can't bikes be ADDED to them?

People getting out in the fresh air and exploring around could become
popular---as long as some open roads remain.

But maybe things are getting too built-in. I think that bikes work for fun
and transit as long as there are options to the 'ring of death' that the car
creates (especially in suburbs). But the last time I drove (a car) in the
eastern part of the US, I was just SHOCKED at how hellish the traffic was
everywhere including the countryside. I got immediately and intolerably
claustrophobic. Yet it's where the people are.

Most of the people who live there don't like it either, but that's
where the jobs are...

....

--
Dave Kerber
Fight spam: remove the ns_ from the return address before replying!

REAL programmers write self-modifying code.

"David L. Johnson" wrote:

On Wed, 17 Sep 2003 13:44:20 +0000, Jeff Potter wrote:

*cheap light 10speeds hit US shores for 1st time

Actually much of that boom -- depending on how you define it -- was
populated by people riding Schwinn Continentals.

Which were light compared to what was before. Contis started the boom but cheap
Flandrias really set it off (maybe).

*US bicentennial, with
its urge to 'ride across the country'

I was there during the bicentennial, and do not recall such an urge being
suggested.

The bicentennial created its own urge for people to get out and look around their
land. I definitely remember the public being in an expansive outdoorsy mood then.

*high gas prices

That was the big difference. This happened in 1973-74, and probably had a
huge impact.

Outdoorsiness in general was HUGE then, even faddish. Not necessarily at the expense
of the car but I guess in general people were going nuts over the idea of the
ecology. They wanted to stop pollution BUT ALSO to get outside themselves. These are
somewhat separate issues. Today people probably are aware of distastrous
contamination and would stop it if it was found...yet they don't go outside.

*low-traffic backroads

Not really. Most riding, then or now, is on city streets.

Backpacking and bike touring were perhaps 10X what it is today. Hitchhiking was
maybe 100X what it is today.

*plentiful public cultu living downtowns, nonlitigious property owners,
generous campsite finding, cheap tentsites

What country are you talking about? Downtowns NOW are much more vibrant

I don't mean urban areas. Bike touring brought people into small towns not big ones.
Today the small town is dead.

than they were in the '70s in the US. Look at Boston. In the '70s it was a pit.
Same for Philadelphia (still....) and Baltimore. Many cities have made
huge progress in terms of livability and ridability. Property owners were
just as litigious then as now; the acronym NIMBY came from the '70s.
There were no multi-use paths then. I also question your idealized
version of campsites and campgrounds from that time, but that really isn't
anything beyond the noise in terms of general riding popularlty.

You could readily ask people/farmers if you could camp on their land and they'd say
Yes, today they say No. Big difference! The difference supported many more thousands
of tourists, travelers on the road back then compared to today.

--

Jeff Potter
****
*Out Your Backdoor * http://www.outyourbackdoor.com
publisher of outdoor/indoor do-it-yourself culture...
...offering "small world" views on bikes, bows, books, movies...
...rare books on ski, bike, boat culture, plus a Gulf Coast thriller
about smalltown smuggling ... more radical novels coming up!
...original downloadable music ... and articles galore!
plus national "Off the Beaten Path" travel forums! HOLY SMOKES!

"rosco" writes:

"David Damerell" wrote in message
...
David L. Johnson wrote:
On Wed, 17 Sep 2003 13:44:20 +0000, Jeff Potter wrote:
What will inspire the next boom?
$4/gallon gas would go a long way. That would quickly empty the streets
of all the big ego-boosting trucks, making it easier to ride -- and would
give people an incentive.

Petrol is about $4 a gallon here and we have an ever-increasing number of
land barges. Admittedly, they're not as silly as American ones, but
they're still a lot sillier than cars.

Based on the commonality of BIG SUVs here in the suburbs you would think we
had no paved roads. Without going down the anti-SUV rathole, I don't think
$4/gallon gas would be the end of this SUV/truck silliness. Lexus is
planning to release a hybrid SUV in a year that will probably get between 30
to 40 mpg. This show what can be done if a manufacturer applies some
relatively simple technology. The auto industry won't let high gas prices
get in the way of selling these very high profit margin vehicles.

Well, I drive what gets sold in the US as an Isuzu Amigo. I don't know
whether you would count it as an SUV, although it is by UK
standards. I drive it mainly for pulling large boats around and for
forestry work. It has a two litre four cylinder petrol engine and does
better than 35 MPG on road. Living where I live (remote rural area) and
doing what I do (among other things, secretary of a forestry charity)
it seems a reasonable choice of vehicle, and I don't see it as 'silly'
at all.

--
(Simon Brooke) http://www.jasmine.org.uk/~simon/

;; my other religion is Emacs

Jeff Potter writes:

I think the last big bike boom was in the mid-70's. It happened because
of:

*cheap light 10speeds hit US shores for 1st time
*US bicentennial, with its urge to 'ride across the country'
*high gas prices
*low-traffic backroads
*plentiful public cultu living downtowns, nonlitigious property
owners, generous campsite finding, cheap tentsites

What will inspire the next boom?

Wrong, wrong, wrong. In the late 1960's and early 1970's we had a
bike boom because :

* The average Baby boomer (born 1945-1960) was 10-30 years old.

Therefore, the "echo boom" from the baby boomers, which will take
roughly 37 years to occur (25 for baby boomers to reproduce, 12 for
the average echo boomer to reach the midpoint of bicycling childhood)
has already occured. It happened in :

1952 + 37 = 1989.

America has always been founded on the following idea : goose this
pyramid-scheme of a country by allowing smart, hard-working immigrants
into the country with nothing, nil, nada, in order to compete for all
the existing capital and land owned by the existing fatcat citizens.

Because of this principle, in the 1990's we more or less smoothed over
the population bulge (and subsequent population vacuum) that came from
the baby boom generation. In the 1990's we had more immigrants as a %
of population than in any decade of the 20th century. These
immigrants were allowed into the country specifically to screw the
Gen-X'ers, who were moaning about being poor because all the boomers
had houses and wouldn't sell. The huge mass of immigrants in their
20's and 30's was very effective at drowning out those moans.

Ergo, the next bike boom will appear 20 years after world-war III.

- Don Gillies
San Diego, CA

Jeff Potter wrote in message ...
I think the last big bike boom was in the mid-70's. It happened because
of:

*cheap light 10speeds hit US shores for 1st time
*US bicentennial, with its urge to 'ride across the country'
*high gas prices
*low-traffic backroads
*plentiful public cultu living downtowns, nonlitigious property
owners, generous campsite finding, cheap tentsites

What will inspire the next boom?

*I don't know!

While the Schwinn Varsity may have contributed to a boom
in the 1970's, it wasn't the last boom. The last boom was
mountain bikes, used as street bikes, because they weren't
as prone to breaking down as "racing bikes," and the riding
position was more comfortable. Everyone just had to have a
mountain bike. Then people who didn't go off-road decided
to go to "hybrids," though this was more of a shift in sales,
not new sales.

A gasoline shortage will inspire more riding, simply a price
increase will not. I probably save $1.75 in gas every day
that I bike to work, but I don't notice my net worth going
up. I do it because I enjoy it, not to save money. I think
the next boom or boomlet will occur when the manufacturers
take steps to make bicycles that are more practical
as an occasional substitute for a vehicle, while also
being usable for recreational rides.

Hence, the next boomlet may be in what are called
"Trekking" Bikes in Europe, which are like a fully
equipped city bike or commute bike. Trek has
introduced them to the U.S. for 2004, though almost
no dealers are even willing to take a chance in trying
to sell them yet, especially since Trek has priced them
extremely high (I found one dealer in the Bay area who
had one in stock, but it was already sold, and they
weren't ordering more).

Fuji is thinking of also selling their trekking bikes
in the U.S., and hopefully Trek's move will spur them
into action. If Giant would also do so, it would drive
prices to more reasonable levels. Kettler sells them
as well. These are good bikes for college students,
suburbanites, and city dwellers, who want to reduce their
car usage. Chainguards, lights, racks, kickstand,
sometimes even locks, are all standard (no skirt guards
yet). Thing is, these should sell for $150 more than an
equivalent quality hybrid, not $400-500 more.

Bicycle manufacturers should learn from car makers on
how to create new markets. You don't introduce a new
product category at high prices and then give up because
you think there is no market for the product. You seed
the market with products at attractive prices, create the
market, then upscale.

On Thu, 18 Sep 2003 02:09:29 GMT, bb wrote:
of the beasts. Nothing can beat sloth and greed.

That's why sloth and greed are my lord and saviour. G

It doesn't matter who you think you are. If you own a bicycle which you
actually ride, you are counter-culture.

Aw, crud. I gotta get rid of my bike now.

Wait, if you don't drive, and only ride a bike, you
are pro-culture in two ways:
1. You need to live in a dense city to survive
2. You need to buy bicycle, supplies, parts from
greedy evil corporations (and you need
money with which to do it, so you have a
job working for a company too).

Hmm...maybe a bicycle isn't a political statement,
but rather, just a fun way to excersize, get around,
and enjoy life.

Hey, I thought I promised myself I wouldn't get into
these discussions anymore. *slaps self upside the head*

bb
--
Rick "Greedy Capitalist Pig Pop-Culture Whore" Onanian

Jeff Potter wrote:
I'm not sure it has to happen at the expense of cars. They appear to be here
to stay. Why can't bikes be ADDED to them?

I agree; hope I didn't imply anything to the contrary.

People getting out in the fresh air and exploring around could become
popular---as long as some open roads remain.

I agree with that too. But I think it has to start with kids riding
bikes. Most kids don't seem too interested. I have to wonder whether I
would have taken up cycling as an adult if I hadn't learned to enjoy
it as a kid.

Art Harris

On Thu, 18 Sep 2003 11:44:18 +0200, trg wrote:

Plus they elected a politician who promised that cyclists will always have a
tailwind!


I don't remember where it was (I might even have read it in a local
paper), but covered cycle paths with air blown through them with fans
do/have existed.

A bientot
Paul
--
Paul Floyd http://paulf.free.fr (for what it's worth)
Surgery: ennobled Gerald.