Bicyclers Unite - Ban Automobiles

The only automobiles that should be allowed on the streets in the US
are trucks to deliver goods. Everyone else will either have to ride a
bicycle (preferred) or take mass transportation. I know it's nearly
impossible to implement such a scheme in the short term but over time
this can become a reality. Look at The Netherlands, parts of Denmark,
Switzerland and Flemish Belgium. Most citizens use bicycle for their
major source of transportation. The economies are modern and
prosperous and in some ways more advanced then here in the US. Plus I
don't remember ever seeing an overweight person in these countries.
Yes the infrastructure and population density is much different in
Europe but still it can be done in the US. So get rid of your cars and
start riding your bike. Does anyone know how to get this revolution
going?

"Robert" wrote in message
m...
: The only automobiles that should be allowed on the streets in the US
: are trucks to deliver goods. Everyone else will either have to ride a
: bicycle (preferred) or take mass transportation. I know it's nearly
: impossible to implement such a scheme in the short term but over time
: this can become a reality. Look at The Netherlands, parts of Denmark,
: Switzerland and Flemish Belgium. Most citizens use bicycle for their
: major source of transportation. The economies are modern and
: prosperous and in some ways more advanced then here in the US. Plus I
: don't remember ever seeing an overweight person in these countries.
: Yes the infrastructure and population density is much different in
: Europe but still it can be done in the US. So get rid of your cars and
: start riding your bike. Does anyone know how to get this revolution
: going?

Apparently the wait for the demise of the private auto won't be too
long. see http://www.dieoff.org/ . 'Course the downside of the
impending oil crash is that we'll probably all die of starvation unless
we learn to produce food locally.

Constitutionally (in America), the rights of the bicyclist and
pedestrian override those of the motorist. see http://tinyurl.com/2sf6y

"Robert" wrote in message
m...
: The only automobiles that should be allowed on the streets in the US
: are trucks to deliver goods.

If we were a truly rational species, we would. Here's George Monbiot's
concise version of our near future.

http://www.monbiot.com
The Bottom of the Barrel

Oil is running out, but no one wants to talk about it.
By George Monbiot. Published in the Guardian 2nd December 2003


The oil industry is buzzing. On Thursday, the government approved the
development of the biggest deposit discovered in British territory for
at least 10 years. Everywhere we are told that this is a "huge" find,
which dispels the idea that North Sea oil is in terminal decline. You
begin to recognise how serious the human predicament has become when you
discover that this "huge" new field will supply the world with oil for
five and a quarter days.1


Every generation has its taboo, and ours is this: that the resource
upon which our lives have been built is running out. We don't talk about
it because we cannot imagine it. This is a civilisation in denial.


Oil itself won't disappear, but extracting what remains is becoming
ever more difficult and expensive. The discovery of new reserves peaked
in the 1960s.2 Every year, we use four times as much oil as we find.3
All the big strikes appear to have been made long ago: the 400 million
barrels in the new North Sea field would have been considered piffling
in the 1970s. Our future supplies depend on the discovery of small new
deposits and the better exploitation of big old ones. No one with
expertise in the field is in any doubt that the global production of oil
will peak before long.


The only question is how long. The most optimistic projections are the
ones produced by the US Department of Energy, which claims that this
will not take place until 2037.4 But the US energy information agency
has admitted that the government's figures have been fudged: it has
based its projections for oil supply on the projections for oil demand,5
perhaps in order not to sow panic in the financial markets. Other
analysts are less sanguine. The petroleum geologist Colin Campbell
calculates that global extraction will peak before 2010.6 In August the
geophysicist Kenneth Deffeyes told New Scientist that he was "99 per
cent confident" that the date of maximum global production will be
2004.7 Even if the optimists are correct, we will be scraping the oil
barrel within the lifetimes of most of those who are middle-aged today.


The supply of oil will decline, but global demand will not. Today we
will burn 76 million barrels;8 by 2020 we will be using 112 million
barrels a day, after which projected demand accelarates.9 If supply
declines and demand grows, we soon encounter something with which the
people of the advanced industrial economies are unfamiliar: shortage.
The price of oil will go through the roof.


As the price rises, the sectors which are now almost wholly dependent
on crude oil - principally transport and farming - will be forced to
contract. Given that climate change caused by burning oil is cooking the
planet, this might appear to be a good thing. The problem is that our
lives have become hard-wired to the oil economy. Our sprawling suburbs
are impossible to service without cars. High oil prices mean high food
prices: much of the world's growing population will go hungry. These
problems will be exacerbated by the direct connection between the price
of oil and the rate of unemployment.10 The last five recessions in the
US were all preceded by a rise in the oil price.11


Oil, of course, is not the only fuel on which vehicles can run. There
are plenty of possible substitutes, but none of them is likely to be
anywhere near as cheap as crude is today. Petroleum can be extracted
from tar sands and oil shale, but in most cases the process uses almost
as much energy as it liberates, while creating great mountains and lakes
of toxic waste. Natural gas is a better option, but switching from oil
to gas propulsion would require a vast and staggeringly expensive new
fuel infrastructure. Gas, of course, is subject to the same constraints
as oil: at current rates of use, the world has about 50 years' supply,12
but if gas were to take the place of oil its life would be much shorter.


Vehicles could be run from fuel cells powered by hydrogen, which is
produced by the electrolysis of water. But the electricity which
produces the hydrogen has to come from somewhere. To fill all the cars
in the US would require four times the current capacity of the national
grid.13 Coal burning is filthy, nuclear energy is expensive and lethal.
Running the world's cars from wind or solar power would require a
greater investment than any civilisation has ever made before. New
studies suggest that leaking hydrogen could damage the ozone layer and
exacerbate global warming.14


Turning crops into diesel or methanol is just about viable in terms of
recoverable energy, but it means using the land on which food is now
grown for fuel. My rough calculations suggest that running the United
Kingdom's cars on rapeseed oil would require an area of arable fields
the size of England.15


There is one possible solution which no one writing about the
impending oil crisis seems to have noticed: a technique with which the
British and Australian governments are currently experimenting, called
underground coal gasification.16 This is a fancy term for setting light
to coal seams which are too deep or too expensive to mine, and catching
the gas which emerges. It's a hideous prospect, as it means that several
trillion tonnes of carbon which was otherwise impossible to exploit
becomes available, with the likely result that global warming will
eliminate life on earth.


We seem, in other words, to be in trouble. Either we lay hands on
every available source of fossil fuel, in which case we fry the planet
and civilisation collapses, or we run out, and civilisation collapses.


The only rational response to both the impending end of the Oil Age
and the menace of global warming is to redesign our cities, our farming
and our lives. But this cannot happen without massive political
pressure, and our problem is that no one ever rioted for austerity.
People take to the streets because they want to consume more, not less.
Given a choice between a new set of matching tableware and the survival
of humanity, I suspect that most people would choose the tableware.


In view of all this, the notion that the war with Iraq had nothing to
do with oil is simply preposterous. The US attacked Iraq (which appears
to have had no weapons of mass destruction and was not threatening other
nations), rather than North Korea (which is actively developing a
nuclear weapons programme and boasting of its intentions to blow
everyone else to kingdom come) because Iraq had something it wanted. In
one respect alone, Bush and Blair have been making plans for the day
when oil production peaks, by seeking to secure the reserves of other
nations.


I refuse to believe that there is not a better means of averting
disaster than this. I refuse to believe that human beings are
collectively incapable of making rational decisions. But I am beginning
to wonder what the basis of my belief might be.


The sources for this and all George Monbiot's recent articles can be
found at www.monbiot.com

References:

1. The Buzzard field is believed to contain 400 million barrels of
recoverable oil. The US Energy Information Administration estimates
global daily oil demand at 76 million barrels (see below).

2. Richard Heinberg, 2003. The Party's Over: Oil, War and the Fate of
Industrial Societies, p.36. New Society Publishers, Canada.

3. Bob Holmes and Nicola Jones, 2nd August 2003. Brace yourself for
the end of cheap oil. New Scientist, vol 179, issue 2406.

4. ibid.

5. US EIA, 1998. Annual Energy Outlook, cited in Richard Heinberg,
ibid, p.115. The extract reads as follows: "these adjustments to the
USGS and MMR estimates are based on non-technical considerations that
support domestic supply growth to the levels necessary to meet projected
demand levels".

6. Colin J. Campbell, 1997. The Coming Oil Crisis. Multi-Science
Publishing Co. Ltd, Brentwood, Essex.

7. Bob Holmes and Nicola Jones, ibid.

8. US Energy Information Administration, 2003. Annual Energy Outlook
2003 With Projections to 2025. http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/

9. ibid.

10. Alan Carruth, Mark Hooker, and Andrew Oswald, 1998. Unemployment
Equilibria and Input Prices: Theory and Evidence from the United States.
Review of Economics and Statistics 80: 621-28.

11. James C. Cooper and Kathleen Madigan, 10th January 2003. Will the
Economy Skid on Oil? Business Week Online.
http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/...30110_5883.htm

12. Richard Heinberg, ibid. p. 126.

13. Hugh Williams, 6th September 2003. Hydrogen hype. Letter to New
Scientist, vol 179, issue 2411.

14. Cited in Anil Ananthaswamy, 15th November 2003. Reality Bites for
the Dream of a Hydrogen Economy. New Scientist, vol 180, issue 2421.

15. This is back-of-the-envelope, and depends on two unchecked
assumptions: a. that the average mpg is 30, b. that the average annual
mileage is 5000. This gives an annual fuel use of 167 gallons/car/year.
One acre of rapeseed yields 115 gallons of biodiesel. There are 22.7m
cars in the UK, which means 33m acres, or 13.3m ha. England's surface
area is 13.4m ha.

16. Fred Pearce, 1st June 2002. Fire Down Below. New Scientist, vol
174, issue 2345.





2nd December 2003

In article ,
"T. Brady Bunch" writes:

'Course the downside of the
impending oil crash is that we'll probably all die of starvation unless
we learn to produce food locally.

Isn't that what we used to do?


cheers,
Tom

--
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Above address is just a spam midden.
I'm really at: tkeats [curlicue] vcn [point] bc [point] ca

(Robert) wrote in message om...
this can become a reality. Look at The Netherlands, parts of Denmark,
Switzerland and Flemish Belgium. Most citizens use bicycle for their
major source of transportation. The economies are modern and
prosperous and in some ways more advanced then here in the US. Plus I
don't remember ever seeing an overweight person in these countries.
Yes the infrastructure and population density is much different in
Europe but still it can be done in the US. So get rid of your cars and
start riding your bike. Does anyone know how to get this revolution
going?

Most citizens?? Granted, the Netherlands might be the country with the
most bikes per per person, stealing them is a national sport there,
but many more people still use cars. Many western Europeans (like many
USians) have 2 or more cars, it's not as if they buy them for
decorating the driveway.

"Tom Keats" wrote in message
...
: In article ,
: "T. Brady Bunch" writes:
:
: 'Course the downside of the
: impending oil crash is that we'll probably all die of starvation
unless
: we learn to produce food locally.
:
: Isn't that what we used to do?
:
Not with a world population exceeding 6 *billion* people. Cheap energy
has allowed huge unsustainable national populations. See the chart at
http://www.dieoff.org/ . It's obvious that a dramatic population
increase has been made possible by the availability of abundant "cheap"
fossil fuel. Providing food without fertilizer (produced from
petroleum) and mechanization (using the concentrated energy of
petroleum) will be problematic at best.

http://www.dieoff.org/index.htm#foodpop
Africa is beginning of a full-on Malthusian dieoff. See "Worldwatch
Briefing: Sixteen Dimensions of the Population Problem" at
http://www.worldwatch.org/alerts/pr98924.html and "Life on Earth is
Killing Us" press release at
http://www.enn.com/news/enn-stories/.../killingus.asp and
study itself is here.

To put this in context, you must remember that estimates of the
long-term carrying capacity of Earth with relatively optimistic
assumptions about consumption, technologies, and equity (A x T), are in
the vicinity of two billion people. Today's population cannot be
sustained on the 'interest' generated by natural ecosystems, but is
consuming its vast supply of natural capital -- especially deep, rich
agricultural soils, 'fossil' groundwater, and biodiversity --
accumulated over centuries to eons. In some places soils, which are
generated on a time scale of centimeters per century are disappearing at
rates of centimeters per year. Some aquifers are being depleted at
dozens of times their recharge rates, and we have embarked on the
greatest extinction episode in 65 million years. -- Paul Ehrlich (Sept.
25, 1998)

Wait for the world's oil supply to end?

Oh wait, the magical hydrogen genie will arrive by then, letting us drive
fuel cell powered Hummers. Honest, I saw the report on TV, sandwiched
between two car commercials.

"Robert" wrote in message
m...
Does anyone know how to get this revolution
going?

"Robert Haston" wrote in message
link.net...
: Wait for the world's oil supply to end?
:
: Oh wait, the magical hydrogen genie will arrive by then, letting us
drive
: fuel cell powered Hummers. Honest, I saw the report on TV, sandwiched
: between two car commercials.
:
The California governator aka Der Gropenfuhrer is counting on it. I've
mentioned the impending oil crash to people and get the reply that
"they" will come up with a solution by then. After all, the Titanic is
only listing the least tiny little bit ... not to worry.

On 7 Feb 2004 02:17:54 -0800, (oOze) wrote
in message :

Many western Europeans (like many
USians) have 2 or more cars, it's not as if they buy them for
decorating the driveway.

No indeed. During the day they decorate the side of the road near the
office (an average of 25 minutes' ride or 40 minutes' drive away).

Guy
===
May contain traces of irony. Contents liable to settle after posting.
http://chapmancentral.demon.co.uk

"T. Brady Bunch" wrote in message ...
"Robert" wrote in message
m...
: The only automobiles that should be allowed on the streets in the US
: are trucks to deliver goods. Everyone else will either have to ride a
: bicycle (preferred) or take mass transportation. I know it's nearly
: impossible to implement such a scheme in the short term but over time
: this can become a reality. Look at The Netherlands, parts of Denmark,
: Switzerland and Flemish Belgium. Most citizens use bicycle for their
: major source of transportation. The economies are modern and
: prosperous and in some ways more advanced then here in the US. Plus I
: don't remember ever seeing an overweight person in these countries.
: Yes the infrastructure and population density is much different in
: Europe but still it can be done in the US. So get rid of your cars and
: start riding your bike. Does anyone know how to get this revolution
: going?

Apparently the wait for the demise of the private auto won't be too
long. see http://www.dieoff.org/ . 'Course the downside of the
impending oil crash is that we'll probably all die of starvation unless
we learn to produce food locally.

Sorry, this is bull****.

Constitutionally (in America), the rights of the bicyclist and
pedestrian override those of the motorist. see http://tinyurl.com/2sf6y