Armstrong seizes small time gain

http://www.astana-cyclingteam.com/ra...tdfst1909.html

"It was a so-called transitional day at the 96th Tour de France: one
day after the time trial and one day before the big climb to Mont
Ventoux on Saturday. The peloton of 168 remaining riders expected a
break away to succeed so the peloton could take an easy ride to the
finish, but that’s not how it played out on Friday with an early catch
of a long breakway setting up things for the teams of the sprinters."

"Ever-attentive, Lance gained four seconds on the stage by being in
front of a split that occurred on the finish line; all other GC
contenders were beyond the gap."

Sloppy, sloppy racing. You just don't lose 4 seconds on the transition
day if you're a GC contender.

Alberto Contador (Spa) Astana 77:06:18
Andy Schleck (Lux) Team Saxo Bank 0:04:11
Lance Armstrong (USA) Astana 0:05:21
Bradley Wiggins (GBr) Garmin - Slipstream 0:05:36
Andreas Klöden (Ger) Astana 0:05:38
Fränk Schleck (Lux) Team Saxo Bank 0:05:59
Vincenzo Nibali (Ita) Liquigas 0:07:15

Armstrong is now 15 seconds on Wiggins, and 38 seconds on Frank.

Slim margin, but 38 seconds is pretty decent and translates into
about, what 200 meters on Ventoux? (Anyone know?)

Imagine the ironing if he keeps the podium...say by arriving 38
seconds down on Frank and ties for third, but when they add up the
times he keeps his placing by 0.20 seconds over Frank.

Anyway, it's been a fun end of the tour at least in RBR.

Schleck will clobber Armstrong on the Ventoux.

On Fri, 24 Jul 2009 11:58:03 -0700 (PDT), Lanterne Rouge
wrote:

Schleck will clobber Armstrong on the Ventoux.

OK, they are attached at the wrists and elbows, but which Schleck are
you discussing?

I mean, sure Andy will be up there as AC sprints away, again, but I
think LA has shown if he stays awake, he can stay with Frank.

If anyone's not sleeping in the saddle, it's LA.

Z-z-z-z...

Frank. You're right. It's implied that Andy and AC are on a
different level.

It's possible LA could ride with FC if LA rides for himself.

He certainly will mark him the whole climb.

We shall see.

"Lanterne Rouge" wrote in message
...
Frank. You're right. It's implied that Andy and AC are on a
different level.

It's possible LA could ride with FC if LA rides for himself.

He certainly will mark him the whole climb.

We shall see.

FC is supposed to be FS, right? If so, my prediction (even though I
said predicting these things is like herding cats a few weeks ago - now
there's only one CG-relevant stage to go):

Lance will mark Frank S for most of the climb then attempt to drop him
near the end, and that Andy S will be there to try to drag his older
brother back to Lance. Contador will also mark the Scheck brothers,
then when Lance goes, he'll go, too, ride with Lance for a while, then
take off on his own if Lance has been successful in dropping the
Schlecks. The real question is, in this scenario, if Andy will stay
with his brother at all, or stay briefly then drop him, or stay with him
the entire time. I believe Andy will have to chase Lance in order to
defend his second place.

Wiggins will be marked by Klöden, and will ride in with, or ahead of,
Frank Schleck, so the stage finish will be: AC, AS, LA, BW. No podium
changes, and probably no changes in the top six or seven spots, maybe
even no changes further down than that.

Other scenarios that seem plausible? Let's hear them.

-S-

On Jul 24, 9:55*pm, "Steve Freides" wrote:
"Lanterne Rouge" wrote in message

...

Frank. *You're right. *It's implied that Andy and AC are on a
different level.

It's possible LA could ride with FC if LA rides for himself.

He certainly will mark him the whole climb.

We shall see.

FC is supposed to be FS, right? *If so, my prediction (even though I
said predicting these things is like herding cats a few weeks ago - now
there's only one CG-relevant stage to go):

Lance will mark Frank S for most of the climb then attempt to drop him
near the end, and that Andy S will be there to try to drag his older
brother back to Lance. *Contador will also mark the Scheck brothers,
then when Lance goes, he'll go, too, ride with Lance for a while, then
take off on his own if Lance has been successful in dropping the
Schlecks. *The real question is, in this scenario, if Andy will stay
with his brother at all, or stay briefly then drop him, or stay with him
the entire time. I believe Andy will have to chase Lance in order to
defend his second place.

Wiggins will be marked by Klöden, and will ride in with, or ahead of,
Frank Schleck, so the stage finish will be: AC, AS, LA, BW. *No podium
changes, and probably no changes in the top six or seven spots, maybe
even no changes further down than that.

Other scenarios that seem plausible? *Let's hear them.

-S-

LANCE only put 1:05 into Frank Schleck in the Stage 18 TT.
Given that the TT should be LANCE's strength and Frank's
weakness, I think you have to ask whether LANCE will
be able to follow on the Ventoux when Frank attacks (or follows
an attack, by Andy or someone else), not whether Frank can
follow when LANCE attacks.

I don't know if Frank or whoever can actually take the
necessary time on LANCE. That's all in how well the
old man's recovery does. The Ventoux may not be as
steep as some of the previous stages, but it is tough.
Riders tend to finish fairly spread out, not in groups.

Ben

On Fri, 24 Jul 2009 15:55:38 -0400, "Steve Freides"
wrote:

Lance will mark Frank S for most of the climb then attempt to drop him
near the end, and that Andy S will be there to try to drag his older
brother back to Lance. Contador will also mark the Scheck brothers,
then when Lance goes, he'll go, too, ride with Lance for a while, then
take off on his own if Lance has been successful in dropping the
Schlecks. The real question is, in this scenario, if Andy will stay
with his brother at all, or stay briefly then drop him, or stay with him
the entire time. I believe Andy will have to chase Lance in order to
defend his second place.

Wiggins will be marked by Klöden, and will ride in with, or ahead of,
Frank Schleck, so the stage finish will be: AC, AS, LA, BW. No podium
changes, and probably no changes in the top six or seven spots, maybe
even no changes further down than that.

Other scenarios that seem plausible? Let's hear them.

-S-


This seems right to me, but LA sort of bonked on the ITT seems like
he's recovered today. If it procedes normally, LA did show he can pass
Wiggo, and can stay with Frank, but that's based on one result, so the
data are soft.

Most of the time, there's little to no change when it gets down to
these last stages and getting 15 seconds, or 38 seconds isn't normally
doable among the GC, but AS is hoping AC 'runs out of sugar',

On Fri, 24 Jul 2009 16:27:25 -0400, wrote:

On Fri, 24 Jul 2009 15:55:38 -0400, "Steve Freides"
wrote:

Other scenarios that seem plausible? Let's hear them.

-S-


This seems right to me, but LA sort of bonked on the ITT seems like
he's recovered today. If it procedes normally, LA did show he can pass
Wiggo, and can stay with Frank, but that's based on one result, so the
data are soft.

Most of the time, there's little to no change when it gets down to
these last stages and getting 15 seconds, or 38 seconds isn't normally
doable among the GC, but AS is hoping AC 'runs out of sugar',

Conservatively, LA loses 30 seconds on the leaders, AC and AS, e beats
Wiggins by a few seconds and if Frank can jump away, he could lose 10
seconds. He's got a 5 second cushion on that.

So I'm predicting he stays in 3rd by 5 seconds over 4th, and Wiggins
takes that slot and Frank tries, but drops to 5th.

AC might lose a few seconds IF he helps Lance and Kloden in some
capacity, but I'm not seeing that happen. AS could win the stage, but
not gain any serious time but that's really unlikely.


Bobke
"Lance Armstrong will fly away and get his coveted win on the Ventoux,
stamping his signature on the peloton and move into second"
/Bobke

Nobody wrote:
This seems right to me, but LA sort of bonked on the ITT seems

The way everybody seems to be bonking now, you have to wonder if
they're not applying the British interpretation of the word.

On 24 July, 21:27, wrote:
On Fri, 24 Jul 2009 15:55:38 -0400, "Steve Freides"
wrote:



Lance will mark Frank S for most of the climb then attempt to drop him
near the end, and that Andy S will be there to try to drag his older
brother back to Lance. *Contador will also mark the Scheck brothers,
then when Lance goes, he'll go, too, ride with Lance for a while, then
take off on his own if Lance has been successful in dropping the
Schlecks. *The real question is, in this scenario, if Andy will stay
with his brother at all, or stay briefly then drop him, or stay with him
the entire time. I believe Andy will have to chase Lance in order to
defend his second place.

Wiggins will be marked by Klöden, and will ride in with, or ahead of,
Frank Schleck, so the stage finish will be: AC, AS, LA, BW. *No podium
changes, and probably no changes in the top six or seven spots, maybe
even no changes further down than that.

Other scenarios that seem plausible? *Let's hear them.

-S-

This seems right to me, but LA sort of bonked on the ITT seems like
he's recovered today. If it procedes normally, LA did show he can pass
Wiggo, and can stay with Frank, but that's based on one result, so the
data are soft.

Most of the time, there's little to no change when it gets down to
these last stages and getting 15 seconds, or 38 seconds isn't normally
doable among the GC, but AS is hoping AC 'runs out of sugar', *

Is it a six hour stage?