Latest on Australian Mandatory Helmet Law propaganda

On 2/17/2019 9:19 AM, wrote:
Professional cycling speeds have gone up significantly from lighter and more efficient components and team tactics plus more competition. As the average speeds in the Grand Tours go up you have to expect that more team leaders are using tactics that end up being more dangerous.


Sorry, but I don't think that the available data shows any terrific
increase in race speeds. _Bicycle Quarterly_ had an article a few years
ago examining the long term trend for average speeds in the Giro
d'Italia, IIRC. There was no increase.

If you've got data, I'd be interested in seeing it.

--
- Frank Krygowski

On Sunday, February 17, 2019 at 6:46:55 AM UTC-8, Frank Krygowski wrote:
On 2/17/2019 9:19 AM, wrote:
Professional cycling speeds have gone up significantly from lighter and more efficient components and team tactics plus more competition. As the average speeds in the Grand Tours go up you have to expect that more team leaders are using tactics that end up being more dangerous.


Sorry, but I don't think that the available data shows any terrific
increase in race speeds. _Bicycle Quarterly_ had an article a few years
ago examining the long term trend for average speeds in the Giro
d'Italia, IIRC. There was no increase.

If you've got data, I'd be interested in seeing it.

--
- Frank Krygowski

Average speeds do not reflect the much higher top speeds during descents or even when the peleton is in closing mode. I was a fast descender but NOTHING like I can do now with all of the aero bikes and high end racing tires. The human body output hasn't much changed between Merckx and Froome but the averages speed have.

Even among TT 10 mile records the difference in speed is remarkable, between 2009 and 2016 the 10 mile record time decreased by almost a minute. This on flat ground. This plainly indicates that the downhill speeds are limited now not by the bicycle but by the roads. I can tell a HUGE difference in speed from my steel Basso Loto and my Colnago CLX 3.0 with aero wheels.

There is a normal ride that I do on Thursdays that goes over 10 miles over the hill from the bay to Pleasanton and then along a rolling ten mile section. While doing this on my Basso I cannot tell any difference between riding my Colnago unless I look at the time. Or count the cars that pass me since this is during commute time on a road that is difficult to pass on.

So your again appealing to authority without understanding the problem is hindering your knowledge.

On 2/17/2019 10:29 AM, wrote:
On Sunday, February 17, 2019 at 6:46:55 AM UTC-8, Frank Krygowski wrote:
On 2/17/2019 9:19 AM, wrote:
Professional cycling speeds have gone up significantly from lighter and more efficient components and team tactics plus more competition. As the average speeds in the Grand Tours go up you have to expect that more team leaders are using tactics that end up being more dangerous.


Sorry, but I don't think that the available data shows any terrific
increase in race speeds. _Bicycle Quarterly_ had an article a few years
ago examining the long term trend for average speeds in the Giro
d'Italia, IIRC. There was no increase.

If you've got data, I'd be interested in seeing it.

--
- Frank Krygowski

Average speeds do not reflect the much higher top speeds during descents or even when the peleton is in closing mode. I was a fast descender but NOTHING like I can do now with all of the aero bikes and high end racing tires. The human body output hasn't much changed between Merckx and Froome but the averages speed have.

Even among TT 10 mile records the difference in speed is remarkable, between 2009 and 2016 the 10 mile record time decreased by almost a minute. This on flat ground. This plainly indicates that the downhill speeds are limited now not by the bicycle but by the roads. I can tell a HUGE difference in speed from my steel Basso Loto and my Colnago CLX 3.0 with aero wheels.

There is a normal ride that I do on Thursdays that goes over 10 miles over the hill from the bay to Pleasanton and then along a rolling ten mile section. While doing this on my Basso I cannot tell any difference between riding my Colnago unless I look at the time. Or count the cars that pass me since this is during commute time on a road that is difficult to pass on.

So your again appealing to authority without understanding the problem is hindering your knowledge.

It seems to me you are appealing to _your_ authority. You want us to
believe in your anecdotal experiences, talking about _your_ descending
speeds (as you remember them), _your_ "HUGE" difference you feel with
your aero wheels. I was talking about data.

The Dave Moulton article
http://davesbikeblog.squarespace.com...d-helmets.html
was talking about the different effects of crashes pre- and post-2000.
So let's look at speeds pre- and post-2000.

Time trials are the event with the greatest percentage-wise benefit from
aero improvements. Here's a list of British 10 mile TT records:
http://www.ttlegends.org/mens-10-mil...0&gen=1&p_id=8
There was a big jump in speed (five whole percent!) in 2016. But the
_cumulative_ change from 2001 to 2014 was only five percent. I don't
think that's enough to explain the rise in elite cycling deaths that
Moulton talks about. Besides, how frequent are time trial deaths? It's
probably the safest form of racing there is.

Here's data on Giro D'Italia speeds:
http://www.bikeraceinfo.com/giro/giroindx.html Again, some increase,
but nothing dramatic, and certainly nothing that would constitute an
obvious tipping point.

Would better bike aerodynamics cause significantly higher downhill
speeds? Only a tiny bit, because the bike itself is a minor source of
aero drag. The great bulk of drag force is on the rider's body.

In any case, I'm linking to data, as usual. I'd say it's now your turn.
First, give us some good time-series data on descending speeds. Second,
link that to the increase in elite cycling crash deaths.

Stop using your poorly remembered anecdotes in your appeal to your own
authority.

--
- Frank Krygowski

On 2/17/2019 9:30 AM, wrote:

I do not blame the helmet manufacturer but rather a component failure. Without that failure I would not have been injured. What do you do if your brakes go out or if you get a flat tire cornering perhaps faster than you should in your car?

Cornering faster than one would in their car might be evidence of risk
compensation triggered by overconfidence in a helmet.

Peter Flax mentioned his different approach to risk now that he rides
with no helmet. See
https://cyclingtips.com/2018/11/comm...a-bike-helmet/


--
- Frank Krygowski

On 2/16/2019 8:36 PM, jbeattie wrote:
On Saturday, February 16, 2019 at 2:46:16 PM UTC-8, Frank Krygowski wrote:

... But it's the medical professionals who are the mystery. How do they
develop the cognitive dissonance to portray bicycling as a major source
of serious brain trauma? They see at least 50 such cases from
non-cycling incidents for every bicycle case, but I don't recall any of
them ever campaigning for helmets for the other cases. Well, except
perhaps motorcyclists - whose risk is something like 30 times worse than
bicyclists.

BTW, I've discussed this with various medical professionals, including
the extended family member who recently retired as an ER doctor. Oddly,
all the ones I've talked to were skeptical about the helmet promotion,
or at least agreed that bicycling seemed to be low on the scale of
relative risk of serious brain trauma. But I suspect that this is an
issue that, in the medical community as in the bicycling community, you
state your skepticism at your own peril.

Well, there's more to the issue than "serious brain injury." Head and scalp injury, including depressed skull fracture can be reduced or avoided with a helmet. As an ED doctor, I would like to see that.

Depressed skull fracture is bad. But scalp injuries? They are messy, but
they're no more life-threatening than (say) chin injuries. Yes, I know
that the Thompson & Rivara team briefly proposed full-face helmets for
all cyclists, but we really need to let _some_ injuries stay below the
"Danger! Danger!" radar.

I didn't see a ton of bicycle accidents as an ambulance driver...

Which is my point! Could you take a guess at the percentage of serious
head & brain injuries you saw that were bicyclists?

Unless your experience was somehow very different from the national
average, less than 2% of the bad head trauma should have been
bicyclists. (And of those, about a quarter would have been drunk, and
about half would have done things like run red lights, ride facing
traffic, etc.)

but I did see a ton of motorcycle accidents. Yes, different issues, but I saw lots of heads that look like they went through cheese graters. And to be fair, lots of bodies, too. A helmet would have at least allowed for an open casket funeral.

Last I looked, motorcycling's fatality-per-hour figure was over 30 times
that of bicycling. Not even in the same universe.

And nobody has ever said that the health benefits of motorcycling
greatly outweigh motorcycling's risks. But a bunch of studies have said
that's true of bicycling.

That means that dissuading people from riding bikes (by helmet mandates
or scary helmet promotion) probably causes net detriment to public health.



--
- Frank Krygowski

On 2/16/2019 9:23 PM, wrote:
On Saturday, February 16, 2019 at 10:42:00 AM UTC-8, Frank Krygowski wrote:
On 2/16/2019 1:36 PM, wrote:


In California it appears to be almost entirely due to no enforcement of traffic laws by autos around bicycles. I have been absolutely astonished that there is no sort of traffic enforcement 99% of the time. When someone runs a stoplight directly in front of a cop 5 seconds after the light has changed and has sped up so that he is going 50% above the speed limit MAYBE the cop might pull him over. But it is actually a toss-up. I think when they are going back to get off duty they simply don't care what is going on in front of them.

OTOH, I once saw a guy on a bike riding downhill on the wrong side of
the road. At a double four lane intersection with turn lanes, he rolled
through the light at about 15 mph, crossing to the right side diagonally
across the center of the intersection. In doing so he passed directly in
front of a patrol car waiting in the left turn lane.

No response from the cops at all, from what I could see.

(Oh, and they were pointed away from the police station, so not heading
off duty.)

--
- Frank Krygowski

Is that supposed to be a "what's good for the goose is good for the gander" comment? I don't care who is driving dangerously - at the very lease a citation is warranted.

I would definitely say a citation was warranted. It's nuts that society
ignores that half of bike deaths are caused by cyclist misbehavior, and
ignores that a quarter of cyclists killed are drunk. But society
simultaneously wants everyone to wear certified-for-14mph styrofoam hats
to prevent cyclist deaths, even on crushed limestone rail-trails.


--
- Frank Krygowski

On 2/17/2019 9:44 AM, wrote:

Trump, despite his riches was taught by the world around him to respect everyone - he is a middle class person himself...

Wow.

--
- Frank Krygowski

On Sunday, February 17, 2019 at 8:33:25 AM UTC-8, Frank Krygowski wrote:
On 2/17/2019 10:29 AM, wrote:
On Sunday, February 17, 2019 at 6:46:55 AM UTC-8, Frank Krygowski wrote:
On 2/17/2019 9:19 AM, wrote:
Professional cycling speeds have gone up significantly from lighter and more efficient components and team tactics plus more competition. As the average speeds in the Grand Tours go up you have to expect that more team leaders are using tactics that end up being more dangerous.


Sorry, but I don't think that the available data shows any terrific
increase in race speeds. _Bicycle Quarterly_ had an article a few years
ago examining the long term trend for average speeds in the Giro
d'Italia, IIRC. There was no increase.

If you've got data, I'd be interested in seeing it.

--
- Frank Krygowski

Average speeds do not reflect the much higher top speeds during descents or even when the peleton is in closing mode. I was a fast descender but NOTHING like I can do now with all of the aero bikes and high end racing tires. The human body output hasn't much changed between Merckx and Froome but the averages speed have.

Even among TT 10 mile records the difference in speed is remarkable, between 2009 and 2016 the 10 mile record time decreased by almost a minute. This on flat ground. This plainly indicates that the downhill speeds are limited now not by the bicycle but by the roads. I can tell a HUGE difference in speed from my steel Basso Loto and my Colnago CLX 3.0 with aero wheels.

There is a normal ride that I do on Thursdays that goes over 10 miles over the hill from the bay to Pleasanton and then along a rolling ten mile section. While doing this on my Basso I cannot tell any difference between riding my Colnago unless I look at the time. Or count the cars that pass me since this is during commute time on a road that is difficult to pass on.

So your again appealing to authority without understanding the problem is hindering your knowledge.

It seems to me you are appealing to _your_ authority. You want us to
believe in your anecdotal experiences, talking about _your_ descending
speeds (as you remember them), _your_ "HUGE" difference you feel with
your aero wheels. I was talking about data.

The Dave Moulton article
http://davesbikeblog.squarespace.com...d-helmets.html
was talking about the different effects of crashes pre- and post-2000.
So let's look at speeds pre- and post-2000.

Time trials are the event with the greatest percentage-wise benefit from
aero improvements. Here's a list of British 10 mile TT records:
http://www.ttlegends.org/mens-10-mil...0&gen=1&p_id=8
There was a big jump in speed (five whole percent!) in 2016. But the
_cumulative_ change from 2001 to 2014 was only five percent. I don't
think that's enough to explain the rise in elite cycling deaths that
Moulton talks about. Besides, how frequent are time trial deaths? It's
probably the safest form of racing there is.

Here's data on Giro D'Italia speeds:
http://www.bikeraceinfo.com/giro/giroindx.html Again, some increase,
but nothing dramatic, and certainly nothing that would constitute an
obvious tipping point.

Would better bike aerodynamics cause significantly higher downhill
speeds? Only a tiny bit, because the bike itself is a minor source of
aero drag. The great bulk of drag force is on the rider's body.

In any case, I'm linking to data, as usual. I'd say it's now your turn.
First, give us some good time-series data on descending speeds. Second,
link that to the increase in elite cycling crash deaths.

Stop using your poorly remembered anecdotes in your appeal to your own
authority.

--
- Frank Krygowski

Why would you say "anecdotal" when I have timed the two bikes many times over the same stretches of road?

Also are you suggesting that people have gotten stronger and that is why there is a one mile per hour gain in speed from 2006 to 2016 on the world 10 mile TT records? You might perhaps not think of that as much but it is all hell and gone faster for speed records to jump that much.

On Sunday, February 17, 2019 at 8:33:25 AM UTC-8, Frank Krygowski wrote:
On 2/17/2019 10:29 AM, wrote:
On Sunday, February 17, 2019 at 6:46:55 AM UTC-8, Frank Krygowski wrote:
On 2/17/2019 9:19 AM, wrote:
Professional cycling speeds have gone up significantly from lighter and more efficient components and team tactics plus more competition. As the average speeds in the Grand Tours go up you have to expect that more team leaders are using tactics that end up being more dangerous.


Sorry, but I don't think that the available data shows any terrific
increase in race speeds. _Bicycle Quarterly_ had an article a few years
ago examining the long term trend for average speeds in the Giro
d'Italia, IIRC. There was no increase.

If you've got data, I'd be interested in seeing it.

--
- Frank Krygowski

Average speeds do not reflect the much higher top speeds during descents or even when the peleton is in closing mode. I was a fast descender but NOTHING like I can do now with all of the aero bikes and high end racing tires. The human body output hasn't much changed between Merckx and Froome but the averages speed have.

Even among TT 10 mile records the difference in speed is remarkable, between 2009 and 2016 the 10 mile record time decreased by almost a minute. This on flat ground. This plainly indicates that the downhill speeds are limited now not by the bicycle but by the roads. I can tell a HUGE difference in speed from my steel Basso Loto and my Colnago CLX 3.0 with aero wheels.

There is a normal ride that I do on Thursdays that goes over 10 miles over the hill from the bay to Pleasanton and then along a rolling ten mile section. While doing this on my Basso I cannot tell any difference between riding my Colnago unless I look at the time. Or count the cars that pass me since this is during commute time on a road that is difficult to pass on.

So your again appealing to authority without understanding the problem is hindering your knowledge.

It seems to me you are appealing to _your_ authority. You want us to
believe in your anecdotal experiences, talking about _your_ descending
speeds (as you remember them), _your_ "HUGE" difference you feel with
your aero wheels. I was talking about data.

The Dave Moulton article
http://davesbikeblog.squarespace.com...d-helmets.html
was talking about the different effects of crashes pre- and post-2000.
So let's look at speeds pre- and post-2000.

Time trials are the event with the greatest percentage-wise benefit from
aero improvements. Here's a list of British 10 mile TT records:
http://www.ttlegends.org/mens-10-mil...0&gen=1&p_id=8
There was a big jump in speed (five whole percent!) in 2016. But the
_cumulative_ change from 2001 to 2014 was only five percent. I don't
think that's enough to explain the rise in elite cycling deaths that
Moulton talks about. Besides, how frequent are time trial deaths? It's
probably the safest form of racing there is.

Here's data on Giro D'Italia speeds:
http://www.bikeraceinfo.com/giro/giroindx.html Again, some increase,
but nothing dramatic, and certainly nothing that would constitute an
obvious tipping point.

Would better bike aerodynamics cause significantly higher downhill
speeds? Only a tiny bit, because the bike itself is a minor source of
aero drag. The great bulk of drag force is on the rider's body.

In any case, I'm linking to data, as usual. I'd say it's now your turn.
First, give us some good time-series data on descending speeds. Second,
link that to the increase in elite cycling crash deaths.

Stop using your poorly remembered anecdotes in your appeal to your own
authority.

--
- Frank Krygowski

Frank - since 2001 the 10 mi record increased in speed by 4 mph - and that was with exactly the same weight bikes. TT riders all tend to be about the same weight except for the occasional outlier. So this huge speed difference is almost entirely due to the aerodynamics of the bike.

The difference in speed in your reference to the Giro cannot be used as ANY sort of reference since you cannot compare the courses year to year. 2009 to 2018 is an example - although the average time is about the same the 2018 race was almost exactly 3 hours longer - for pros. That means that there was one hell of a lot more climbing and yet the average speed was the same.

Again you appeal to authority without understanding the subject. I wish you would stop doing that because all you are doing is taking the attention away from the real facts.

On Sunday, February 17, 2019 at 8:53:56 AM UTC-8, Frank Krygowski wrote:
On 2/16/2019 9:23 PM, wrote:
On Saturday, February 16, 2019 at 10:42:00 AM UTC-8, Frank Krygowski wrote:
On 2/16/2019 1:36 PM, wrote:


In California it appears to be almost entirely due to no enforcement of traffic laws by autos around bicycles. I have been absolutely astonished that there is no sort of traffic enforcement 99% of the time. When someone runs a stoplight directly in front of a cop 5 seconds after the light has changed and has sped up so that he is going 50% above the speed limit MAYBE the cop might pull him over. But it is actually a toss-up. I think when they are going back to get off duty they simply don't care what is going on in front of them.

OTOH, I once saw a guy on a bike riding downhill on the wrong side of
the road. At a double four lane intersection with turn lanes, he rolled
through the light at about 15 mph, crossing to the right side diagonally
across the center of the intersection. In doing so he passed directly in
front of a patrol car waiting in the left turn lane.

No response from the cops at all, from what I could see.

(Oh, and they were pointed away from the police station, so not heading
off duty.)

--
- Frank Krygowski

Is that supposed to be a "what's good for the goose is good for the gander" comment? I don't care who is driving dangerously - at the very lease a citation is warranted.

I would definitely say a citation was warranted. It's nuts that society
ignores that half of bike deaths are caused by cyclist misbehavior, and
ignores that a quarter of cyclists killed are drunk. But society
simultaneously wants everyone to wear certified-for-14mph styrofoam hats
to prevent cyclist deaths, even on crushed limestone rail-trails.


--
- Frank Krygowski

The "cyclist misbehavior" people around here are almost entirely new riders riding like they did as children. They compose only an insignificant part of the accidents and not the half the deaths which I'm sure is an exaggeration for effect.

Talking about cyclist misbehavior when it is relatively rare and not concentrate on the 80% of dangerous drivers is putting the cart before the horse.