|
|
|
Thread Tools | Display Modes |
#1
|
|||
|
|||
How Jan or Lance can win
I think Jan just needs to stay close to Armstrong and take his chances
in the final TT for the jersey. He can't get away from Lance unless Lance just blows up. Armstrong and his buddy Heras are good at accelerating on the steeper climbs they'll do in the next few days (steeper than the Alps). Jan hasn't been able to match those accelerations but he is able to recover most of his losses by the time the reaches the finish. I think Lance could attack a few k's from the finish each day and reap the benefit of his accelerations without giving Jan enough time to claw his way back. If Lance can gain 20-40 seconds on 3 or 4 occasions he should be able to win the Tour. Tyler should follow Jan around and see what he can get. -WG |
Ads |
#2
|
|||
|
|||
How Jan or Lance can win
It's more than a two horse race. If Vino continues to put time into Lance in
the mountains (and he says he will) Lance may have is hands full. That could benefit Jan. Tyler and Iban are not completely out of it (anything can happen in the tour) I believe the next couple of days should be very interesting. Lance is going to need some luck and maybe a a day or two of super form or some off days by his rivals. Mo |
#3
|
|||
|
|||
How Jan or Lance can win
"warren" wrote in message ... I think Jan just needs to stay close to Armstrong and take his chances in the final TT for the jersey. He can't get away from Lance unless Lance just blows up. Armstrong and his buddy Heras are good at accelerating on the steeper climbs they'll do in the next few days (steeper than the Alps). Jan hasn't been able to match those accelerations but he is able to recover most of his losses by the time the reaches the finish. I think Lance could attack a few k's from the finish each day and reap the benefit of his accelerations without giving Jan enough time to claw his way back. If Lance can gain 20-40 seconds on 3 or 4 occasions he should be able to win the Tour. Tyler should follow Jan around and see what he can get. -WG The thing that will make this race so great is that Lance will need to keep an eye on climbers that are stronger than him but also make up the time as you suggest. This is more than a 2 horse race. Although Mayo is not as dangerous, Lance can't count on taking too much more time on him in the last TT. Mayo also has Zubeldia equal on QC. Those 2 will attack all the way until Luz Ardiden. The best thing about this race is that nobody has a position that they can confidently defend. The first 5 guys on GC all have to attack if they want this race. I am a fan of the sport so I am happy as long as the race is good. Still, I am a bit worried for Jan. As great as he has done, the race is getting more and more difficult over the next 3 stages. He may just fall apart on any of those stages. Still, he can go home with a stage win in the bag and the knowledge that he can come back to the top. No matter what happens from here, we are all witness to a vintage Tour. |
#4
|
|||
|
|||
How Jan or Lance can win
Warren, Lance is slower than last year by a fairly wide margin. What
would you think about that if you were to think about that? "warren" wrote in message ... I think Jan just needs to stay close to Armstrong and take his chances in the final TT for the jersey. He can't get away from Lance unless Lance just blows up. Armstrong and his buddy Heras are good at accelerating on the steeper climbs they'll do in the next few days (steeper than the Alps). Jan hasn't been able to match those accelerations but he is able to recover most of his losses by the time the reaches the finish. I think Lance could attack a few k's from the finish each day and reap the benefit of his accelerations without giving Jan enough time to claw his way back. If Lance can gain 20-40 seconds on 3 or 4 occasions he should be able to win the Tour. Tyler should follow Jan around and see what he can get. -WG |
#5
|
|||
|
|||
How Jan or Lance can win
Tom Kunich wrote: Warren, Lance is slower than last year by a fairly wide margin. What would you think about that if you were to think about that? You need to justify this statement. Certainly the ITT data don't support this conjecture. You compare Lance to Ullrich. What if you compare him to Botaro? Last year Botaro was faster. This year Lance was much faster. Last year, Miller was 39 seconds slower than Lance in ITT1. This year, Miller was almost two minutes slower. Last year, Hamilton was 1:56 slower. This year, he was 1:07 slower. Last year, Basso was 1:32 slower. This year, he was 4:24 slower. Last year, Zubeldia was 2:39 slower. This year, 1:04 slower. Last year, Chaurreau was 4:58 slower. This year, only 2:25 slower. Mancebo went from 2:30 down in 2002, to 3:24 down this year. So I'm getting a mixed picture. Seven riders -- 3 improved on Armstrong relative to last year, 4 got slower relative to Armstrong. I see no signature of a "fairly wide margin". Dan |
#6
|
|||
|
|||
How Jan or Lance can win
In article k.net,
Tom Kunich wrote: Warren, Lance is slower than last year by a fairly wide margin. What would you think about that if you were to think about that? I don't see that he is much slower than last year. His strategy has been a bit different but this year there will be four days in the steeper mountains when there were only three days last year. He accelerated away from Jan on the Alpe and I think he can do that again in the next few days. -WG "warren" wrote in message ... I think Jan just needs to stay close to Armstrong and take his chances in the final TT for the jersey. He can't get away from Lance unless Lance just blows up. Armstrong and his buddy Heras are good at accelerating on the steeper climbs they'll do in the next few days (steeper than the Alps). Jan hasn't been able to match those accelerations but he is able to recover most of his losses by the time the reaches the finish. I think Lance could attack a few k's from the finish each day and reap the benefit of his accelerations without giving Jan enough time to claw his way back. If Lance can gain 20-40 seconds on 3 or 4 occasions he should be able to win the Tour. Tyler should follow Jan around and see what he can get. -WG |
#7
|
|||
|
|||
How Jan or Lance can win
"warren" wrote in message ... I think Jan just needs to stay close to Armstrong and take his chances in the final TT for the jersey. He can't get away from Lance unless Lance just blows up. Armstrong and his buddy Heras are good at accelerating on the steeper climbs they'll do in the next few days (steeper than the Alps). Jan hasn't been able to match those accelerations but he is able to recover most of his losses by the time the reaches the finish. I think Lance could attack a few k's from the finish each day and reap the benefit of his accelerations without giving Jan enough time to claw his way back. If Lance can gain 20-40 seconds on 3 or 4 occasions he should be able to win the Tour. Yes....provided of course he doesn't let Mayo and the other Spanish riders gain too much time... Tyler should follow Jan around and see what he can get. -WG |
#8
|
|||
|
|||
How Jan or Lance can win
"warren" wrote in message ... I think Jan just needs to stay close to Armstrong and take his chances in the final TT for the jersey. He can't get away from Lance unless Lance just blows up. I see Vino as a bigger threat than Jan right now. If he can manage anything like the same time he put into LA on L'Alpe over the next 3 stages, and he time trials as well as he did today in the penultimate stage, he could walk away with it. On the other hand, if we see today that Jan has mountain legs and can contain his losses to Armstrong over the next 72 hours, then the race will likely become a showdown in the final TT. Whatever happens, today is going to be one hell of a day in the mountains!! D. Armstrong and his buddy Heras are good at accelerating on the steeper climbs they'll do in the next few days (steeper than the Alps). Jan hasn't been able to match those accelerations but he is able to recover most of his losses by the time the reaches the finish. I think Lance could attack a few k's from the finish each day and reap the benefit of his accelerations without giving Jan enough time to claw his way back. If Lance can gain 20-40 seconds on 3 or 4 occasions he should be able to win the Tour. Tyler should follow Jan around and see what he can get. -WG --- Outgoing mail is certified Virus Free. Checked by AVG anti-virus system (http://www.grisoft.com). Version: 6.0.501 / Virus Database: 299 - Release Date: 7/14/2003 |
#9
|
|||
|
|||
How Jan or Lance can win
|
#10
|
|||
|
|||
How Jan or Lance can win
"g" wrote in message ... Although Lances ITT isn't as stella as before, he still easily makes time on everyone except Jan. Lance can afford to ignore attacks from everyone else, only focus on what Jan is doing. So he can ignore Vino? Bike Camano wrote: It's more than a two horse race. If Vino continues to put time into Lance in the mountains (and he says he will) Lance may have is hands full. That could benefit Jan. Tyler and Iban are not completely out of it (anything can happen in the tour) I believe the next couple of days should be very interesting. Lance is going to need some luck and maybe a a day or two of super form or some off days by his rivals. Mo |
|
Thread Tools | |
Display Modes | |
|
|
Similar Threads | ||||
Thread | Thread Starter | Forum | Replies | Last Post |
Bad Journalism - Bicycling Lance Article | WillW | General | 26 | July 31st 04 05:14 AM |
Lance Armstrong's mother promotes federal funding of bike/ped accommodations | Brent Hugh | General | 5 | September 4th 03 05:37 PM |
Lance learns the truth... | Alex Ravenel | Mountain Biking | 38 | July 25th 03 06:44 AM |
In defence of the Lance era | Bret Wade | Racing | 5 | July 15th 03 11:11 PM |
How long has it been for Lance Armstrong? | NobodyMan | Racing | 2 | July 10th 03 10:06 PM |