Armstrong's Tour De France Time Trials

Armstrong's Tour De France Time Trials

Most people who race or follow cycling know that it is effectively a
sport in which one's performance is governed to a large extent by ones
power output. A good sprinter is defined by someone with a high
top-end power output, a good climber by a high power to weight ratio
and a time trialist by their power output at aerobic threshold. Of
course there are other factors that come into play but power tends to
be the key overriding factor.

With this in mind I've put together some information relating to Lance
Armstrong and his TdF Time Trial performances. Like most people I am
fascinated by his progression especially the pre-post cancer
difference.

I'd like to assume (maybe unwisely) that this thread/discussion can be
kept somewhat factual/objective and that "redneck" responses can be
kept to a minimum.

Notes:
- A Tour De France generally consists of two individual Time Trials.
In the following sections the first time trial is designated by (Xa)
and the second (Xb).

- In all time trials, competitors used "state of the art" aero
equipment (i.e. time trail bike, disk wheels, aero bars, skin suit,
aero position and so on).

- The formula for Drag Force due to air resistance can be found at
the end of this article.

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(1a) 1993 Stage 9 LAC DE MADINE, 59 km ITT
1. Miguel Indurain en 1h12'50" (Moy : 48.604 km/h)
27. Armstrong à 6'04" (Moy : 44.87 km/h)

Comment: Assuming Armstrong has a power output of 420W at aerobic
threshold (this can be regarded as the standard for the average sized
person with a velocity of 45 km/h) he would have to increase his power
output at aerobic threshold by 114W to 534W to match Indurain (this
assumes no change in drag coefficient and frontal area of body).

Note: that even if the baseline value of 420W is disputed (or even
changed - increased/decreased) this still will not affect % increase
in power required in order matching the winner's (in this case
Indurain's) performance.

(1b) 1993 Stage 19 BRETIGNY SUR ORGE-MONTHLERY, 48 km ITT
N/A Armstrong abandoned before TT in line with his Tour plans.

(2a) 1994 Stage 9 PERIGUEUX-BERGERAC, 64 km ITT
1. Miguel Indurain en 1h15'58" (Moy: 50.548 km/h)
13. Armstrong à 6'23" (Moy : 46.63 km/h)

Comment: Assuming Armstrong has a power output of 420W at aerobic
threshold he would have to increase his power output at aerobic
threshold by 115W to 535W to match Indurain (this assumes no change in
drag coefficient and frontal area of body).

(2b) 1994 Stage 19 Cluses-Morzine Avoriaz, 47.5 km ITT
N/A Armstrong abandoned

(3a) 1995 Stage 8 HUY (Bel)-SERAING (Bel), 54 km ITT
1. Miguel Indurain en 1h04'16" (Moy : 50.414 km/h)
19. Armstrong à 5'09" (Moy : 46.67 km/h)

Comment: Assuming Armstrong has a power output of 420W at aerobic
threshold he would have to increase his power output at aerobic
threshold by 110W to 530W to match Indurain (this assumes no change in
drag coefficient and frontal area of body).

(3b) 1995 Stage 19 LAC DE VASSIVIERE, 46.5 km ITT
1. Miguel Indurain en 57'34" (Moy : 48.465 km/h)
43. Armstrong à 6'24" (Moy : 43.62 km/h)

Comment: Assuming Armstrong has a power output of 420W at aerobic
threshold he would have to increase his power output at aerobic
threshold by 156W to 576W to match Indurain (this assumes no change in
drag coefficient and frontal area of body).

Note: this was the first time Armstrong attempted a second time trial
in the Tour (stage 19) and the likely hood is that he may not have
been as motivated as in the first Tour time trials that he
participated in. Therefore there is a likelihood that he didn't reach
his max aerobic power threshold of 420W - using a more reasonable
power output of 530W for the winner Indurain this leads to a more
reasonable value of 390W for Armstrong.


(4a) 1996 No Time Trial info for this year - Armstrong abandoned on
first mountain stage (stage 6) Croix de la Serra - Van Bon


Summary:
Pre-cancer Average Speed 45.447 km/h with an aerobic threshold of
420W.
Excluding the (3b) time trial the data from the time trials is
remarkably consistent with a consistent time and power deficit between
the winner Indurain and Armstrong for each time trial.

1997-98 No TdF participation due to cancer treatment


(5a) 1999 Stage 8 Metz-Metz, 56.5 km ITT
1. Lance Armstrong en 1h08'36" (Moy : 49.417 km/h)

(5b) 1999 Stage 19 Futuroscope-Futuroscope, 57 km ITT
1. Lance Armstrong en 1h08'17" (Moy : 50.085 km/h)

(6a) 2000 Stage 1 FUTUROSCOPE, 16.5 km ITT
1. David Millar (Gbr) en 19'03" (Moy : 51.968 km/h)
2. Lance Armstrong (Usa) à 2" (Moy : 51.361 km/h)

(6b) 2000 Stage 19 FRIBOURG EN BRISGAU (All)-MULHOUSE, 58.5 km
1. Lance Armstrong (Usa) en 1h05'01" (Moy : 53.986 km/h)

(7a) 2001 Stage 11 Grenoble-Chamrousse, 32 km ITT
1. Lance Armstrong (Usa) en 1h07'27" (Moy : 28.466 km/h) * Mountain
TT not used in calculation of average

(7b) 2001 Stage 18 MONTLUCON-SAINT AMAND MONTROND, 61 km ITT
1. Lance Armstrong (Usa) en 1h14'16" (Moy : 49,282 km/h)

(8a) 2002 Stage 9 Lanester-Lorient, 52 km ITT
1. Santiago Botero (Col) en 1h02'19" (Moy : 50.066 km/h)
2. Lance Armstrong (Usa) à 11" (Moy : 49.92 km/h)

(8b) 2002 Stage 19 Régnié Durette-Mâcon, 50 km ITT
1. Lance Armstrong (Usa) en 1h03'50" (Moy : 46.997 km/h)

(9a) 2003 Stage 12 Gaillac-Cap Découverte, 47 km ITT
1. Jan Ullrich (All) en 58'32" (Moy : 48.178 km/h)
2. Lance Armstrong (Usa) à 1'36" (Moy : 46.896 km/h)

(9b) 2003 Stage 19 Pornic-Nantes, 49 km ITT
1. David Millar (Gbr) en 54'05" (Moy : 54.361 km/h)
2. Tyler Hamilton (Usa) à 9"
3. Lance Armstrong (Usa) à 14" (Moy : 54.123 km/h)


Summary:
Post Cancer Average Speed 50.229 km/h

Difference pre-post cancer (50.229 - 45.447) = 4.782 km/h

Assuming Armstrong had a pre cancer power output of 420W at aerobic
threshold he would have to increase this by 147W to 567W to achieve
this increase in speed. This represents a remarkable increase in
aerobic power in an already highly trained professional athlete.


Factors that can help increase velocity at a given a given power
output:

"Hyper motivated" - being "hyper motivated" will not increase the
physically defined limit of power at aerobic threshold. It will not
increase it but it will allow you to reach or approach your limit. For
example if your physical limit is 420W then due to lack of motivation
factors you may only produce 380W or 390W in a time trial but being
extremely motivated may allow you to reach 420W (you will not exceed
the physical limit in a "long" time trial - shorter time trails such
as a individual pursuit or prologue allow one to use anaerobic power
for a short duration).

"Reduced weight" - if you lost 10 lbs (about 5%), you would typical
only increase you time in "flat" time trials by about 0.4% however you
would go faster (4-5%) uphill.

"Reduced drag" - this is where the biggest advantage can be obtained.
However the potential increase assumes that you have not already taken
advantage of the "state of the art" elements at your disposal (i.e.
that you do not already use aero time trail position, time trail bike,
disk wheels, aero bars, skin suit and so on).

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Formula Drag Force due to air resistance:

Fdrag = Cdrag V*V A

whe
Cdrag = drag coefficient (a function of the shape of the body and
the density of the fluid)
A = frontal area of body
V = velocity

Since: Power = Force x Velocity

i.e. to double your speed requires 8 times as much power just to
overcome air drag (since power ~ velocity3)

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Thanks & regards
-R