NAS Panel tells Congress that Michael "Hockey Stick" Mann is an

Mann's "Hockey Stick" NOT supported by NAS Panel
*********

In the accompanying thread "(OT) What Global Warming has in common
with Marxism"
http://groups.google.ie/group/rec.bi...dda0f151cc4d7d
Bill Asher claims that the NAS Panel under Gerald North supported
Michael Mann's Hockey Stick.

The NAS Panel was set up specifically to counter the Wegman Panel,
which had been commissioned by the US Senate to investigate Michael
Mann's statistical credibility, and had found it to be zero as related
in "(OT) What Global Warming has in common with Marxism". The NAS
Panel expressed itself less forcefully than the Wegman Panel but in
every essential agreed with it, finding that,

*** the principal components method by which Hockey Stick was achieved
was flawed
***RE tests are insufficient for statistical significance (i.e. the
Hockey Stick has zero meaning)
***Mann's Hockey Stick depends on bristlecone proxies which are known
to be unreliable
***Such strip bark forms should be "avoided" in reconstruction

This is a comprehensive condemnation of a statistical report, stated
politely. (In plain English, Mann was either incompetent or
deliberately cooked up a politically desirable result.) Certainly, to
support a multi-trillion policy, for which purpose the Mann Hockey
Stick was put forward by IPCC, one would expect at least enthusiastic
support from a scientist's peers, especially from a panel which was
constituted specifically to support Mann against Wegman.

North and his panel were also called before the Senate
subcommittee, together with Wegman. The members of the NAS panel were
then asked under oath if they wished to dispute the Wegman findings,
and this interesting dialogue ensued:

CHAIRMAN BARTON. Dr. North, do you dispute the conclusions [about the
Mann papers] or the methodology of Dr. Wegman's report?
DR. NORTH. No, we don't. We don't disagree with their
criticism. In fact, pretty much the same thing is said in our
report.
DR. BLOOMFIELD [statistician to the NAS Panel]. Our committee reviewed
the methodology used by Dr. Mann and his co-workers and we felt that
some of the choices they made were inappropriate. We had much the same
misgivings about his work that was documented at much greater length
by Dr. Wegman.
WALLACE: The two reports were complementary, and to
the extent that they overlapped, the conclusions were quite
consistent.

In short, the NAS committee -- set up to support Mann -- agreed item
by item with Wegman's devastating condemnation of the man and his
methods as totally incompetent. I quote only two paragraphs of
Wegman's comprehensive indictment of Mann:
'The controversy of Mann's methods lies in that the proxies are
centered on the mean of the period 1902-1995, rather than on the whole
time period. This mean is, thus, actually decentered low, which will
cause it to exhibit a larger variance, giving it preference for being
selected as the first principal component. The net effect of this
decentering using the proxy data in MBH98 and MBH99 is to produce a
"hockey stick" shape.' Later Dr Wegman added that this was
"politically convenient".

The Wegman report executive summary concludes with a total,
contemptuous dismissal of Mann's Hockey Stick:
'Overall, our committee believes that Mann's assessments that the
decade of the 1990s was the hottest decade of the millennium and that
1998 was the hottest year of the millennium cannot be supported by his
analysis.'

And Dr North and everone else on the NAS Panel agreed under oath to
every word of that and more.

North claimed, somewhat limply, that the fact that the statistics were
totally crooked didn't mean Mann didn't arrive at the right answer.
Remember, his Panel had been constituted specifically to support
Michael Mann's contention that Global Warming is a danger. And the
best they could officially say of the Mann papers were that they were
statistically incompetent but that their conclusions were nontheless
"plausible" in places. Wrong in method but "plausible"? And not even
all of it, just in parts, the rest bad, like the curate's egg? Holy
****! And on that they want to commit trillions? With such a low
standard of proof, anything at all can be made to appear plausible.

In any event, plausibility without correct method and conclusive proof
is a personal belief, nothing to do with science, which is all about
proof. Edward Wegman said so:

Method Wrong + Answer Correct = Bad Science.

That was prophetic shorthand, as reports were already in the pipeline
that applying Mann's algorithm, which Wegman had condemned so roundly,
to random red noise also produced a Hockey Stick. Every time. If
random inputs can duplicate your "science", it is cargo cult science.
Speak into the tennis ball, Dr Mann.

But Asher claims that the NAS Panel "supports" Mann's Hockey Stick!

Method Wrong + Answer Correct = Bad Science

Think on it, Asher.

By the way, Asher, Edward Wegman, the most distinguished statistician
in America, probably in the world, is a past chairman of the Committee
on Applied and Theoretical Statistics of the National Academy of
Sciences, the very institution that Mann (and you, little Bill Asher!)
cites as supporting Mann's work!

Well, actually no, Michael. Wegman consigned your incompetence to the
devil, and North's solidarity was about as grudging as you can get
without asking you to resign from the NAS. You screwed up, Dr Mann,
and you got caught out. And your supporters and followers are
operating on faith alone.

The Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age remain, and while they
stand Global Warming is a joke. That, of course, is why the Global
Warmies, like Michael Mann, expend so much energy to lie these
historical phenomena out of existence.

Andre Jute
Reformed petrol head
Car-free since 1992
Greener than thou!

On 10/18/2015 7:55 AM, Andre Jute wrote:

Mann's "Hockey Stick" NOT supported by NAS Panel...

There must be a Usenet group where this is actually on topic.


--
- Frank Krygowski

Frank Krygowski wrote:
:On 10/18/2015 7:55 AM, Andre Jute wrote:
:
: Mann's "Hockey Stick" NOT supported by NAS Panel...

:There must be a Usenet group where this is actually on topic.

Anyhwere it would be on topic, liars like Jute get laughed at.


--
Movable type was evidently a fad. --Amanda Walker

On Sunday, October 18, 2015 at 3:01:16 PM UTC+1, Frank Krygowski wrote:
On 10/18/2015 7:55 AM, Andre Jute wrote:

Mann's "Hockey Stick" NOT supported by NAS Panel...

There must be a Usenet group where this is actually on topic.


--
- Frank Krygowski

Have something to contribute, Frankie-boy, or do you just want to hear the sound of your voice whining?

Andre Jute

On Sunday, October 18, 2015 at 4:32:32 PM UTC+1, David Scheidt wrote:
Frank Krygowski wrote:
:On 10/18/2015 7:55 AM, Andre Jute wrote:
:
: Mann's "Hockey Stick" NOT supported by NAS Panel...

:There must be a Usenet group where this is actually on topic.

Anyhwere it would be on topic, liars like Jute get laughed at.


--
Movable type was evidently a fad. --Amanda Walker

Go on then, Scheidt, prove a single word of my OP is a lie. It is because you and that other clown Krygowski know every word of it is true, and that you aren't man enough to argue any of it, that you're screeching personal abuse and claiming the subject is taboo -- but only when I enter the discussion, not when you and other global warmie faithful send hundreds of me-too messages. The pair of you are such embarrassing losers.

Movable type was evidently a fad. --Amanda Walker

Christ, even your tagline is embarrassing. Has nobody told this Amanda Walker that fads don't last half a millennium and change? Or is it just that you personally don't know any better?

Andre Jute

On Sunday, October 18, 2015 at 8:33:01 AM UTC-7, Andre Jute wrote:
On Sunday, October 18, 2015 at 3:01:16 PM UTC+1, Frank Krygowski wrote:
On 10/18/2015 7:55 AM, Andre Jute wrote:

Mann's "Hockey Stick" NOT supported by NAS Panel...

There must be a Usenet group where this is actually on topic.


--
- Frank Krygowski

Have something to contribute, Frankie-boy, or do you just want to hear the sound of your voice whining?

Well, to be fair, he whines about bicycle-related issues. I could whine about how climate change has screwed up my ski season, but then again, it has made riding this fall -- except today (it's raining -- still going out) -- very summer-like. I know nothing about hockey-sticks, but I can say with certainty that the weather has changed. http://www.powder.com/stories/news/d...on-mount-hood/ So much for summer skiing, and the season looks to be crappy this year, too.

Climate change around here means our economy gets ruined -- low fish runs, higher energy prices, forest fires, loss of crops, lost tourist dollars. Regardless of whether climate change is man-made or not, the deniers want to maintain the status quo or engage in even more intensive use of limited resources, which clearly doesn't work.

-- Jay Beattie.

On 10/18/2015 11:32 AM, David Scheidt wrote:
Frank Krygowski wrote:
:On 10/18/2015 7:55 AM, Andre Jute wrote:
:
: Mann's "Hockey Stick" NOT supported by NAS Panel...

:There must be a Usenet group where this is actually on topic.

Anyhwere it would be on topic, liars like Jute get laughed at.

That happens elsewhere too.


--
- Frank Krygowski

On Sunday, October 18, 2015 at 5:08:02 PM UTC+1, jbeattie wrote:
On Sunday, October 18, 2015 at 8:33:01 AM UTC-7, Andre Jute wrote:
On Sunday, October 18, 2015 at 3:01:16 PM UTC+1, Frank Krygowski wrote:
On 10/18/2015 7:55 AM, Andre Jute wrote:

Mann's "Hockey Stick" NOT supported by NAS Panel...

There must be a Usenet group where this is actually on topic.


--
- Frank Krygowski

Have something to contribute, Frankie-boy, or do you just want to hear the sound of your voice whining?

Well, to be fair, he whines about bicycle-related issues. I could whine about how climate change has screwed up my ski season, but then again, it has made riding this fall -- except today (it's raining -- still going out) -- very summer-like. I know nothing about hockey-sticks, but I can say with certainty that the weather has changed. http://www.powder.com/stories/news/d...on-mount-hood/ So much for summer skiing, and the season looks to be crappy this year, too.

Climate change around here means our economy gets ruined -- low fish runs, higher energy prices, forest fires, loss of crops, lost tourist dollars. Regardless of whether climate change is man-made or not, the deniers want to maintain the status quo or engage in even more intensive use of limited resources, which clearly doesn't work.

-- Jay Beattie.

Eh? There aren't any global warming "deniers" as far as I know. There are merely those of us who point out that the global warming hysteria has zero science behind it, just as its direct ancestor Iceball Earth had zero science behind it, just as that one's predecessor the Hole in the Ozone layer had zero sciene behind it, just a lot of statistical lies that the resident RBT warmies don't even try to prove (because they know they're lies) but just state as articles of faith; what do you expect from a bunch of jumped-up techies? Nor is there any manmade variability of weather: that is pure hubris. It is not that we don't want the weather managed (we'd like the "global warming" of the 1990s back because it was fab cycling weather) -- it is that we know it is a) impossible and b) that so-called climate management is a mask for some of the most incompetent income redistribution on earth, and man, that's really saying something. Rich Mexico and rich China are getting three dollars for each dollar given to the genuinely poor.

You do understand, don't you, that "global warming" is an invention of the Club of Rome, the modern day home of Hitlerian eugenics, to "unite us" in the battle to reduce the earth's population to make space for ferns and spiders? It's not a secret: they publish books that everyone can read, just like Hitler published his plans in Mein Kampf. See: https://groups.google.com/forum/#!to...ch/8NaiBkMFcKg
It is no accident that global warming has become an act of faith, promoted by no less than His Holyness the Pope; the CoR nearly half a century ago described their creation as a substitute for the lost religious guilt... The CoR's Maurice Strong (ironically an oil billionaire) was the boss of the EPA, the UN agency that set up the IPCC, the High Temple of the Global Warmies; today in ripe old age he lives in China and helps the Chinese government get more than their fair share of the "environmental redistribution". And very successful he is too; see above. It is another irony that a bunch of cyclists who pretend to be left-wingers (real left-wingers, the sort of people beside whom I fomented revolutions, would shoot them first; so would I, because they're useless), so virulently support the machinations of a bunch of billionaires in the Club of Rome, who if they had their way woud kill the lot of them without blinking.

Belief in manmade global warming is the ultimate in early 21st century self-hate.

Andre Jute
Reformed petrol head
Car-free since 1992
Greener than thou!

On Sunday, October 18, 2015 at 8:00:17 PM UTC+1, Frank Krygowski wrote:
On 10/18/2015 11:32 AM, David Scheidt wrote:
Frank Krygowski wrote:
:On 10/18/2015 7:55 AM, Andre Jute wrote:
:
: Mann's "Hockey Stick" NOT supported by NAS Panel...

:There must be a Usenet group where this is actually on topic.

Anyhwere it would be on topic, liars like Jute get laughed at.

That happens elsewhere too.


--
- Frank Krygowski

Always happy to entertain. Here I usually stand on your face while I do it. You haven't noticed because you're a slow learner.

Now, do you have something to contribute to the conversation or do you want to bugger off to your corner to sulk?

Andre Jute