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#101
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Don't hassle me - I'm riding my bike
Radey Shouman wrote:
John B. writes: On Thu, 9 Jul 2020 23:43:34 -0700 (PDT), AK wrote: On Wednesday, July 8, 2020 at 8:49:41 AM UTC-5, Radey Shouman wrote: John B. writes: On Wed, 8 Jul 2020 06:05:11 +0000 (UTC), Ralph Barone wrote: Radey Shouman wrote: John B. writes: On Tue, 7 Jul 2020 13:09:37 -0700 (PDT), wrote: On Friday, July 3, 2020 at 3:12:13 PM UTC-7, AMuzi wrote: On 7/3/2020 3:53 PM, Frank Krygowski wrote: On 7/3/2020 3:10 PM, jbeattie wrote: On Friday, July 3, 2020 at 8:47:36 AM UTC-7, Sepp Ruf wrote: AMuzi wrote: https://710wor.iheart.com/content/20...rage-incident/ Detroit needs a mayor who will campaign donating Chinese safety flasher toys to anyone in sight. With any luck some jerks will take the lesson to heart. Like, "Don't go into a Detroit traffic argument armed with a knife!" Exactly, the driver should have been pack'n. It should have been some Quentin Tarantino-esqe shootout. This definitely proves the superiority of handlebar baskets. Just keep your Glock in there with your posies and donettes. Well, there's a tradeoff between a handlebar basket and a handlebar bag. With the basket, the gun's easily visible but it bounces around. Sometimes it slides under the donettes, slowing your draw time. The handlebar bag can have a special holster pocket. But then there are tradeoffs between an inside pocket over an outside pocket. Inside for concealed carry, but you lose a second flipping the bag open. Outside for open carry, but some people get touchy about that. Being a good-old-boy American bicyclist can be complicated! That's why most of them drive pickups. Cyclists's pistols were a very common accessory at one time. It's not an overly complex problem. Upscale model at 12 shillings: https://onlinebicyclemuseum.co.uk/wp...ist-pistol.jpg N.B. Tom in Oakland, tagline: "I fear no tramp." more, many with folding trigger for pocket carry: https://duckduckgo.com/?q=bicycle+pi...ages&ia=images That said, urban environments present almost infinite possibilities for trouble and for liability. -- Andrew Muzi www.yellowjersey.org/ Open every day since 1 April, 1971 While someone like Frank might hurry his own death along by trying to walk the streets of Oakland I have people offering help whenever they believe they can be of some. Last Wednesday I was talking to a rich man, like most rich a large part was inherited. His Grandmother had a farm in the bay area not long after the civil war when food was big business. And also like most rich he spreads it around as much as possible. He is a surgeon and works for Doctors without Borders. He works mostly in Africa and he talked about how much healthier African Children are than Americans because their immune systems are under constant challenge. Perhaps this is the reason that I have such good health. Traipsing through the salt marshes when I was a kid. I suppose a large part of these marshes were formed as part of the run-off from the cities which could not have been very healthy. We discussed the idea that a cloth mask could possibly even slow down a molecule like a virus and we both got a good laugh out of that (I suppose that he definitely would not fall under Frank's category of "medical expert" I have the distinct impression that what Frank thinks of as an expert is anyone that sits on their ass and reads an occasional study. Frank appears to be unaware that most studies are absolute garbage but then I suppose that is what he taught in college. Poor students. Though they probably learned the art of engineering by practice and not by his meanderings. Virtually everything that has been visited upon this country by the Democrats has been a virtual curse. While walking through those salt marshes I was accompanied by an American kid of Japanese extraction. He grew up in Roosevelt's concentration camps. These were formed in large part so that Roosevelt who was one of the most racist people that ever lived could allow his friends to seize the property of the Japanese/Americans who were rather prosperous up to that time. Exactly what do you suppose goes through the head of a man who has a large guaranteed income when he would tell the working man that he cannot work and cannot provide for his family and must do insane things like wear a mask in public unless he is robbing a bank? Social distancing is much like wearing a mask - an infected person has a cloud of virus molecules surrounding his head and contrary to the highly educated Dr. Fauci's thoughts, these thing do not fall to the ground like a brick dropped off a building. They float pretty much in place in a stream along which you are walking. That means that someone could pass through that very slowly dispersing cloud minutes after you have passed and be exposed. The entire Democrat Party has retained some small remnants of power though the constant threats and fear. Awful environmental impact that is barely measurable, man-made climate change that doesn't exist and now a virus that is virtually harmless. No doubt you are correct and the figures prove it. The U.S. is leading the world! In the larger countries, with a population of 200 million or more, the U.S. is head and shoulders above the rest with 3,085,705 cases of the virus, some 3 times the next highest country; 133,808 deaths, double the numbers of the next closest country;404 deaths per million - y'all are slipping a bit here, only about 30% higher and 9,321/million cases, again slipping back to only about 1-1/4 times the next highest country. Just think, 50% more deaths due to the Virus than all of the U.S.'s military deaths in the past 70 years, from the Korean war to the present. But not much more, and less per capita, than died in the pandemics of 1957 and 1968. But note that the pandemics of 1957 and 1968 had one important difference. They’re over, while the US is still working through their first wave of the current pandemic. Implying that things aren’t that bad now compared to 1957 or 1968 is akin to publishing the death toll from an airplane crash before the plane hits the ground. Too true, in fact from the numbers I see the daily new case rate is higher then at any time previous. On 7 Jul it seems to have been 55,442 new cases. Nope, I was wrong, the highest number of new cases seems to have been on 3 Jul with 58,910 new cases. The death rate, however, continues to decrease. Popular coverage of the pandemic in the US, like everthing else, is now driven almost entirely by politics. I feel that the death rate will continue to decrease due to the fact that the more folks that get Covid, the less folks that are left who can get Covid. Andy But of course, in the U.S. there are now 3,213,283 who have caught the virus which leaves something like 327 million who haven't :-) New cases yesterday were ~54,351 so 327 million divided by 54,351... Not all are equally likely to get it, or to pass it on. It seems that something less than 10% infected is needed to stop epidemic transmission. That's not to say that no one will get it afterwards, but that the infection rate will not continue to increase. That statement makes no sense to me. Are you saying that if less than 10% of the population is currently infected, the rate of infection won’t increase, or are you saying that once 10% of the population has had it (and is hopefully immune), the infection rate will not increase? If it’s the first interpretation, then how do pandemics start, since you always start with 1 infected person? If it’s the second interpretation, I believe that given the spreading rate of COVID, that you need to have around 60% immunity in the general population before the infection rate starts declining substantially. |
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#102
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Don't hassle me - I'm riding my bike
Rolf Mantel writes:
Am 10.07.2020 um 18:16 schrieb Radey Shouman: John B. writes: On Thu, 9 Jul 2020 23:43:34 -0700 (PDT), AK wrote: On Wednesday, July 8, 2020 at 8:49:41 AM UTC-5, Radey Shouman wrote: The death rate, however, continues to decrease. Popular coverage of the pandemic in the US, like everthing else, is now driven almost entirely by politics. I feel that the death rate will continue to decrease due to the fact that the more folks that get Covid, the less folks that are left who can get Covid. But of course, in the U.S. there are now 3,213,283 who have caught the virus which leaves something like 327 million who haven't :-) New cases yesterday were ~54,351 so 327 million divided by 54,351... Not all are equally likely to get it, or to pass it on. It seems that ^^^^^^^^^^^^ I think this is a synonym for "I hope that". You can think that. It might even be true. something less than 10% infected is needed to stop epidemic transmission. In the European hotspots, they found a significantly higher proportion infected (numbers from memory): Ischgl 42% Gangelt 30% Madrid 20% London 15% We have good evidence that social distancing in combination with track-and-trace stops epidemic transmission (e.g. in Germany, three weeks after the Tönnies meat factory outbreak with 1,600 infected, the transmission rate in the relevant disctrics is back to "uncritical"); lockdown is only needed when the number of unrelated local incidents is too high for a sucessful track-and-trace. Is track and trace working effectively in Germany? I think the chances of it working in the US are near zero. Public trust in such schemes is just not there. Due to the extreme "super-spreader" nature of the epidemic, there is no indication whether 5% infected or 50% infected would be necessary to stop the epidemic without track-and-trace and without social distancing (to be honest, this kind of experiment is too risky and expensive for us Europeans, we're happy that USA and Brasil are sufficiently suicidal to try this out for us). So the US and Brasil are suicidal but Spain and the UK were not? |
#103
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Don't hassle me - I'm riding my bike
Ralph Barone writes:
Radey Shouman wrote: John B. writes: On Thu, 9 Jul 2020 23:43:34 -0700 (PDT), AK wrote: On Wednesday, July 8, 2020 at 8:49:41 AM UTC-5, Radey Shouman wrote: John B. writes: On Wed, 8 Jul 2020 06:05:11 +0000 (UTC), Ralph Barone wrote: Radey Shouman wrote: John B. writes: On Tue, 7 Jul 2020 13:09:37 -0700 (PDT), wrote: On Friday, July 3, 2020 at 3:12:13 PM UTC-7, AMuzi wrote: On 7/3/2020 3:53 PM, Frank Krygowski wrote: On 7/3/2020 3:10 PM, jbeattie wrote: On Friday, July 3, 2020 at 8:47:36 AM UTC-7, Sepp Ruf wrote: AMuzi wrote: https://710wor.iheart.com/content/20...rage-incident/ Detroit needs a mayor who will campaign donating Chinese safety flasher toys to anyone in sight. With any luck some jerks will take the lesson to heart. Like, "Don't go into a Detroit traffic argument armed with a knife!" Exactly, the driver should have been pack'n. It should have been some Quentin Tarantino-esqe shootout. This definitely proves the superiority of handlebar baskets. Just keep your Glock in there with your posies and donettes. Well, there's a tradeoff between a handlebar basket and a handlebar bag. With the basket, the gun's easily visible but it bounces around. Sometimes it slides under the donettes, slowing your draw time. The handlebar bag can have a special holster pocket. But then there are tradeoffs between an inside pocket over an outside pocket. Inside for concealed carry, but you lose a second flipping the bag open. Outside for open carry, but some people get touchy about that. Being a good-old-boy American bicyclist can be complicated! That's why most of them drive pickups. Cyclists's pistols were a very common accessory at one time. It's not an overly complex problem. Upscale model at 12 shillings: https://onlinebicyclemuseum.co.uk/wp...ist-pistol.jpg N.B. Tom in Oakland, tagline: "I fear no tramp." more, many with folding trigger for pocket carry: https://duckduckgo.com/?q=bicycle+pi...ages&ia=images That said, urban environments present almost infinite possibilities for trouble and for liability. -- Andrew Muzi www.yellowjersey.org/ Open every day since 1 April, 1971 While someone like Frank might hurry his own death along by trying to walk the streets of Oakland I have people offering help whenever they believe they can be of some. Last Wednesday I was talking to a rich man, like most rich a large part was inherited. His Grandmother had a farm in the bay area not long after the civil war when food was big business. And also like most rich he spreads it around as much as possible. He is a surgeon and works for Doctors without Borders. He works mostly in Africa and he talked about how much healthier African Children are than Americans because their immune systems are under constant challenge. Perhaps this is the reason that I have such good health. Traipsing through the salt marshes when I was a kid. I suppose a large part of these marshes were formed as part of the run-off from the cities which could not have been very healthy. We discussed the idea that a cloth mask could possibly even slow down a molecule like a virus and we both got a good laugh out of that (I suppose that he definitely would not fall under Frank's category of "medical expert" I have the distinct impression that what Frank thinks of as an expert is anyone that sits on their ass and reads an occasional study. Frank appears to be unaware that most studies are absolute garbage but then I suppose that is what he taught in college. Poor students. Though they probably learned the art of engineering by practice and not by his meanderings. Virtually everything that has been visited upon this country by the Democrats has been a virtual curse. While walking through those salt marshes I was accompanied by an American kid of Japanese extraction. He grew up in Roosevelt's concentration camps. These were formed in large part so that Roosevelt who was one of the most racist people that ever lived could allow his friends to seize the property of the Japanese/Americans who were rather prosperous up to that time. Exactly what do you suppose goes through the head of a man who has a large guaranteed income when he would tell the working man that he cannot work and cannot provide for his family and must do insane things like wear a mask in public unless he is robbing a bank? Social distancing is much like wearing a mask - an infected person has a cloud of virus molecules surrounding his head and contrary to the highly educated Dr. Fauci's thoughts, these thing do not fall to the ground like a brick dropped off a building. They float pretty much in place in a stream along which you are walking. That means that someone could pass through that very slowly dispersing cloud minutes after you have passed and be exposed. The entire Democrat Party has retained some small remnants of power though the constant threats and fear. Awful environmental impact that is barely measurable, man-made climate change that doesn't exist and now a virus that is virtually harmless. No doubt you are correct and the figures prove it. The U.S. is leading the world! In the larger countries, with a population of 200 million or more, the U.S. is head and shoulders above the rest with 3,085,705 cases of the virus, some 3 times the next highest country; 133,808 deaths, double the numbers of the next closest country;404 deaths per million - y'all are slipping a bit here, only about 30% higher and 9,321/million cases, again slipping back to only about 1-1/4 times the next highest country. Just think, 50% more deaths due to the Virus than all of the U.S.'s military deaths in the past 70 years, from the Korean war to the present. But not much more, and less per capita, than died in the pandemics of 1957 and 1968. But note that the pandemics of 1957 and 1968 had one important difference. They’re over, while the US is still working through their first wave of the current pandemic. Implying that things aren’t that bad now compared to 1957 or 1968 is akin to publishing the death toll from an airplane crash before the plane hits the ground. Too true, in fact from the numbers I see the daily new case rate is higher then at any time previous. On 7 Jul it seems to have been 55,442 new cases. Nope, I was wrong, the highest number of new cases seems to have been on 3 Jul with 58,910 new cases. The death rate, however, continues to decrease. Popular coverage of the pandemic in the US, like everthing else, is now driven almost entirely by politics. I feel that the death rate will continue to decrease due to the fact that the more folks that get Covid, the less folks that are left who can get Covid. Andy But of course, in the U.S. there are now 3,213,283 who have caught the virus which leaves something like 327 million who haven't :-) New cases yesterday were ~54,351 so 327 million divided by 54,351... Not all are equally likely to get it, or to pass it on. It seems that something less than 10% infected is needed to stop epidemic transmission. That's not to say that no one will get it afterwards, but that the infection rate will not continue to increase. That statement makes no sense to me. Are you saying that if less than 10% of the population is currently infected, the rate of infection won’t increase, or are you saying that once 10% of the population has had it (and is hopefully immune), the infection rate will not increase? Observations of epidemic outbreaks of covid-19 seem to show that once roughly 6-10% of the population has been exposed to the virus, per immunological tests, that the outbreak has passed it's peak. If it’s the first interpretation, then how do pandemics start, since you always start with 1 infected person? With one infected person almost no one has been exposed to the virus. If it’s the second interpretation, I believe that given the spreading rate of COVID, that you need to have around 60% immunity in the general population before the infection rate starts declining substantially. I don't think that the data has shown that. One thing we have seen is that 90% of all pandemic models are garbage. |
#104
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Don't hassle me - I'm riding my bike
On 7/10/2020 4:16 PM, Radey Shouman wrote:
Rolf Mantel writes: Am 10.07.2020 um 18:16 schrieb Radey Shouman: John B. writes: On Thu, 9 Jul 2020 23:43:34 -0700 (PDT), AK wrote: On Wednesday, July 8, 2020 at 8:49:41 AM UTC-5, Radey Shouman wrote: The death rate, however, continues to decrease. Popular coverage of the pandemic in the US, like everthing else, is now driven almost entirely by politics. I feel that the death rate will continue to decrease due to the fact that the more folks that get Covid, the less folks that are left who can get Covid. But of course, in the U.S. there are now 3,213,283 who have caught the virus which leaves something like 327 million who haven't :-) New cases yesterday were ~54,351 so 327 million divided by 54,351... Not all are equally likely to get it, or to pass it on. It seems that ^^^^^^^^^^^^ I think this is a synonym for "I hope that". You can think that. It might even be true. something less than 10% infected is needed to stop epidemic transmission. In the European hotspots, they found a significantly higher proportion infected (numbers from memory): Ischgl 42% Gangelt 30% Madrid 20% London 15% We have good evidence that social distancing in combination with track-and-trace stops epidemic transmission (e.g. in Germany, three weeks after the Tönnies meat factory outbreak with 1,600 infected, the transmission rate in the relevant disctrics is back to "uncritical"); lockdown is only needed when the number of unrelated local incidents is too high for a sucessful track-and-trace. Is track and trace working effectively in Germany? I think the chances of it working in the US are near zero. Public trust in such schemes is just not there. Due to the extreme "super-spreader" nature of the epidemic, there is no indication whether 5% infected or 50% infected would be necessary to stop the epidemic without track-and-trace and without social distancing (to be honest, this kind of experiment is too risky and expensive for us Europeans, we're happy that USA and Brasil are sufficiently suicidal to try this out for us). So the US and Brasil are suicidal but Spain and the UK were not? " I think the chances of it working in the US are near zero. Public trust in such schemes is just not there. " I certainly cannot speak for Americans generally but personally I Could never resist the temptation for social engineering, i.e., a lie. 'What was I doing yesterday? Gay sex with the governor. Go quarantine that jerk for a couple of weeks.' -- Andrew Muzi www.yellowjersey.org/ Open every day since 1 April, 1971 |
#105
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Don't hassle me - I'm riding my bike
On Fri, 10 Jul 2020 14:41:01 -0400, Frank Krygowski
wrote: On 7/10/2020 1:05 PM, Rolf Mantel wrote: Am 10.07.2020 um 18:16 schrieb Radey Shouman: John B. writes: On Thu, 9 Jul 2020 23:43:34 -0700 (PDT), AK wrote: On Wednesday, July 8, 2020 at 8:49:41 AM UTC-5, Radey Shouman wrote: The death rate, however, continues to decrease.* Popular coverage of the pandemic in the US, like everthing else, is now driven almost entirely by politics. I feel that the death rate will continue to decrease due to the fact that the more folks that get Covid, the less folks that are left who can get Covid. But of course, in the U.S. there are now 3,213,283 who have caught the virus which leaves something like 327 million who haven't :-) New cases yesterday were ~54,351 so 327 million divided by 54,351... Not all are equally likely to get it, or to pass it on.* It seems that ************************************************** ******** ^^^^^^^^^^^^ I think this is a synonym for "I hope that". something less than 10% infected is needed to stop epidemic transmission. In the European hotspots, they found a significantly higher proportion infected (numbers from memory): Ischgl* 42% Gangelt 30% Madrid* 20% London* 15% We have good evidence that social distancing in combination with track-and-trace stops epidemic transmission (e.g. in Germany, three weeks after the Tönnies meat factory outbreak with 1,600 infected, the transmission rate in the relevant disctrics is back to "uncritical"); lockdown is only needed when the number of unrelated local incidents is too high for a sucessful track-and-trace. Due to the extreme "super-spreader" nature of the epidemic, there is no indication whether 5% infected or 50% infected would be necessary to stop the epidemic without track-and-trace and without social distancing (to be honest, this kind of experiment is too risky and expensive for us Europeans, we're happy that USA and Brasil are sufficiently suicidal to try this out for us). Here in the U.S., a problem with track & trace is the significant number of people who say "I don't have to tell you where I was." This culture is independent, "every man for himself" to a fault. There's relatively little "I'll do this for the good of the community." Which, I think, is sad. Here, nearly all cases were tracked back to their origin and as a general statement nearly all were traced back to two large gatherings, Boxing matches in Bangkok. And, it might be added, "locking down" and the other stringent measures, as taken here, do limit the spread of the disease. It has now been forty-something days since the last resident in Thailand was diagnosed with the virus and all recent cases have been among Thais returning from foreign countries who arrive with the disease and all new arrivals go straight into quarantine when they arrive. -- Cheers, John B. |
#106
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Don't hassle me - I'm riding my bike
On Fri, 10 Jul 2020 11:47:58 +0700, John B.
wrote: I'm only telling you what your reputation is :-) I've been asked quite a number of times in various SEA countries if it is true that in "America" people send their parents to an old age home when they get old? I have no idea there that comes from but it does seem prevalent in at least three of the SEA countries. And our old folks do die in nursing homes. My grandmother, my mother, and my oldest sister all died in nursing homes, and my nephew was forced to commit my second-oldest sister when she got to be too much for her minder to handle. Mom committed herself after she fell and had to wait for the paperboy to rescue her, and was sharp as a tack to the end, but my grandmother wanted to go home to be taken care of by her mother, and my sisters' conditions seriously bite into the hope I was given by my mother's fate. My father's mother was handed round from child to child -- having had seven children survive helped spread the strain -- but I don't know any more, save that Mom once said that her dementia made her hard to live with. Everyone who can remember her is either dead or insane. I do remember sitting in front of the fireplace being taught how to make paper spills to light a candle from a fire. Since I must have been well under six years old at the time, this may have been part of her dementia. If I can't die right here in the same bedroom where Lois found my mother-in-law, I'd rather be taken to Grace Village than be handed round among the neices and nephews. -- Joy Beeson joy beeson at comcast dot net http://wlweather.net/PAGEJOY/ |
#107
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Don't hassle me - I'm riding my bike
On Sat, 11 Jul 2020 18:52:14 -0400, Joy Beeson
wrote: On Fri, 10 Jul 2020 11:47:58 +0700, John B. wrote: I'm only telling you what your reputation is :-) I've been asked quite a number of times in various SEA countries if it is true that in "America" people send their parents to an old age home when they get old? I have no idea there that comes from but it does seem prevalent in at least three of the SEA countries. And our old folks do die in nursing homes. My grandmother, my mother, and my oldest sister all died in nursing homes, and my nephew was forced to commit my second-oldest sister when she got to be too much for her minder to handle. Mom committed herself after she fell and had to wait for the paperboy to rescue her, and was sharp as a tack to the end, but my grandmother wanted to go home to be taken care of by her mother, and my sisters' conditions seriously bite into the hope I was given by my mother's fate. My father's mother was handed round from child to child -- having had seven children survive helped spread the strain -- but I don't know any more, save that Mom once said that her dementia made her hard to live with. Everyone who can remember her is either dead or insane. I do remember sitting in front of the fireplace being taught how to make paper spills to light a candle from a fire. Since I must have been well under six years old at the time, this may have been part of her dementia. If I can't die right here in the same bedroom where Lois found my mother-in-law, I'd rather be taken to Grace Village than be handed round among the neices and nephews. Well, as it is viewed here. When you were so weak that you couldn't walk, you were incontinent and peed on the floor, you could only mumble, unable to communicate in any normal manner, and were even unable to feed yourself, were you handed off to some "Home"? -- Cheers, John B. |
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