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#11
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Lance won't win #5 this year
"Gerrit Stolte" wrote in message ... On Fri, 18 Jul 2003 20:39:26 GMT, "Corey Green" wrote: Yes, Lance gave up more time to Ullrich than he wanted. Yes, Lance got beat again in the first time trial of the Tour. Yes, Lance beat every other competitor. No, Lance hasn't made a single attack yet. Yes, Lance is saying the same stuff he has said every year about not feeling this, and having this concern him, and that Ullrich is his primary competitor. I don't think people are looking hard enough to see what the difference is between Lance and Ullrich. Including today Jan and Lance have competed against each other four times in ITT's in the TdF. 1999 - No Jan.. 2000 - Only 1 ITT. Lance beat Jan by 25 seconds. Lance beats Jan by an overall 6'02". That makes 5' 37" gained by Lance in the TTT and mountains. 2001 - ITT#1 - Lance wins by 1 minute. ITT #2 - Lance wins by 1'39" Lance beats Jan by an overall 6'44". That makes 4'05" gained by Lance in the TTT and mountains. 2002 - No Jan. 2003 - ITT #1 - Jan wins by 1'36" So let's suppose that Lance loses another 1'30" on the last time trial of the tour. That makes three minutes lost in ITT events. If we take the smallest amount that Lance gained in the mountains and TTT of 4'05" means that he should still win by a minute over Jan. Lance has already shown that his team can dust Jan and Bianchi in the mountains when they need to and took advantage of that already. So I don't really understand how people are jumping to the conclusion that it is all over for Lance. Sure there isn't much margin for error, but the only real change I see this year is that Jan has put forth some spectacular ITT's. He has lost less in the first mountain stages, he has lost less in the TTT and he's in better shape than at any time since 1997. Go figure ... Agreed - but he has to limit his losses in four consecutive mountain stages to about a minute or less. If he is more than 1'30" behind going into the final time trial it isn't going to be as simple as everyone is making it out to be. |
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#12
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Lance won't win #5 this year
On Fri, 18 Jul 2003 19:20:21 GMT, "dwjones"
wrote: isn't the final time trial a team time trial and i can not see ullrich's team matching lance's in that time trial. Are you serious, when was the last time you saw two TTT's in the TdF, you're clueless! |
#13
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Lance won't win #5 this year
1981 was the last time there were two TTT's in the same Tour.
Raleigh won both the 40km stage 1b and the 77km stage 4. Dan http://www.angelfire.com/realm/cvccb...r/top_ten.html Keith wrote: On Fri, 18 Jul 2003 19:20:21 GMT, "dwjones" wrote: isn't the final time trial a team time trial and i can not see ullrich's team matching lance's in that time trial. Are you serious, when was the last time you saw two TTT's in the TdF, you're clueless! |
#14
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Lance won't win #5 this year
"Keith" wrote in message ... On Fri, 18 Jul 2003 19:20:21 GMT, "dwjones" wrote: isn't the final time trial a team time trial and i can not see ullrich's team matching lance's in that time trial. Are you serious, when was the last time you saw two TTT's in the TdF, you're clueless! I don't know about him, but I said it *never* happens and someone researched it and came up with 1979. |
#15
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Lance won't win #5 this year
i am not cluesless i read that there are 2 team time trials (with the second
one taking place on the day before they enter paris) in the english version of the offical tour de france website "Nick Burns" wrote in message ... "Keith" wrote in message ... On Fri, 18 Jul 2003 19:20:21 GMT, "dwjones" wrote: isn't the final time trial a team time trial and i can not see ullrich's team matching lance's in that time trial. Are you serious, when was the last time you saw two TTT's in the TdF, you're clueless! I don't know about him, but I said it *never* happens and someone researched it and came up with 1979. |
#16
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Lance won't win #5 this year
No, Lance hasn't made a single attack yet.
That one sentence says speaks volumes. Postal is doing things differently this year, and I'm not sure they planned it that way. I don't think people are looking hard enough to see what the difference is between Lance and Ullrich. The main difference is that at the moment Jan appears stronger than Lance. Lance has already shown that his team can dust Jan and Bianchi in the mountains when they need to and took advantage of that already. If Jan had been dusted on the Alpe d'Huez, he'd be more than 34 seconds back. So I don't really understand how people are jumping to the conclusion that it is all over for Lance. Sure there isn't much margin for error, but the only real change I see this year is that Jan has put forth some spectacular ITT's. You need to look more closely, because you aren't seeing that Lance is descendant and other riders are ascendant. You have two strong riders that have gained time in the last several stages. And Vino was a surprise to many in the ITT. Lance can still win, but it won't be because he won in 1999 or 2002. If that were true, Indurain would have won in '96, Riis in '97, Ullrich in '98. |
#17
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Lance won't win #5 this year
On Sat, 19 Jul 2003 02:55:23 GMT, "dwjones"
wrote: i am not cluesless i read that there are 2 team time trials (with the second one taking place on the day before they enter paris) in the english version of the offical tour de france website I hope they don't write that you have to jump in the river on that site... |
#18
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Lance won't win #5 this year
jumphress wrote:
No, Lance hasn't made a single attack yet. That one sentence says speaks volumes. Postal is doing things differently this year, and I'm not sure they planned it that way. I don't think people are looking hard enough to see what the difference is between Lance and Ullrich. The main difference is that at the moment Jan appears stronger than Lance. Lance has already shown that his team can dust Jan and Bianchi in the mountains when they need to and took advantage of that already. If Jan had been dusted on the Alpe d'Huez, he'd be more than 34 seconds back. So I don't really understand how people are jumping to the conclusion that it is all over for Lance. Sure there isn't much margin for error, but the only real change I see this year is that Jan has put forth some spectacular ITT's. You need to look more closely, because you aren't seeing that Lance is descendant and other riders are ascendant. You have two strong riders that have gained time in the last several stages. And Vino was a surprise to many in the ITT. Lance can still win, but it won't be because he won in 1999 or 2002. If that were true, Indurain would have won in '96, Riis in '97, Ullrich in '98. Actually it means ROBIC would be winning since 1947... |
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