How Jan or Lance can win

I think Jan just needs to stay close to Armstrong and take his chances
in the final TT for the jersey. He can't get away from Lance unless
Lance just blows up.

Armstrong and his buddy Heras are good at accelerating on the steeper
climbs they'll do in the next few days (steeper than the Alps). Jan
hasn't been able to match those accelerations but he is able to recover
most of his losses by the time the reaches the finish. I think Lance
could attack a few k's from the finish each day and reap the benefit of
his accelerations without giving Jan enough time to claw his way back.
If Lance can gain 20-40 seconds on 3 or 4 occasions he should be able
to win the Tour. Tyler should follow Jan around and see what he can
get.

-WG

It's more than a two horse race. If Vino continues to put time into Lance in
the mountains (and he says he will) Lance may have is hands full. That could
benefit Jan.

Tyler and Iban are not completely out of it (anything can happen in the tour) I
believe the next couple of days should be very interesting.

Lance is going to need some luck and maybe a a day or two of super form or some
off days by his rivals.

Mo

"warren" wrote in message
...
I think Jan just needs to stay close to Armstrong and take his chances
in the final TT for the jersey. He can't get away from Lance unless
Lance just blows up.

Armstrong and his buddy Heras are good at accelerating on the steeper
climbs they'll do in the next few days (steeper than the Alps). Jan
hasn't been able to match those accelerations but he is able to recover
most of his losses by the time the reaches the finish. I think Lance
could attack a few k's from the finish each day and reap the benefit of
his accelerations without giving Jan enough time to claw his way back.
If Lance can gain 20-40 seconds on 3 or 4 occasions he should be able
to win the Tour. Tyler should follow Jan around and see what he can
get.

-WG

The thing that will make this race so great is that Lance will need to keep
an eye on climbers that are stronger than him but also make up the time as
you suggest. This is more than a 2 horse race. Although Mayo is not as
dangerous, Lance can't count on taking too much more time on him in the last
TT. Mayo also has Zubeldia equal on QC. Those 2 will attack all the way
until Luz Ardiden. The best thing about this race is that nobody has a
position that they can confidently defend. The first 5 guys on GC all have
to attack if they want this race.

I am a fan of the sport so I am happy as long as the race is good. Still, I
am a bit worried for Jan. As great as he has done, the race is getting more
and more difficult over the next 3 stages. He may just fall apart on any of
those stages. Still, he can go home with a stage win in the bag and the
knowledge that he can come back to the top.

No matter what happens from here, we are all witness to a vintage Tour.

Warren, Lance is slower than last year by a fairly wide margin. What
would you think about that if you were to think about that?

"warren" wrote in message
...
I think Jan just needs to stay close to Armstrong and take his
chances
in the final TT for the jersey. He can't get away from Lance unless
Lance just blows up.

Armstrong and his buddy Heras are good at accelerating on the
steeper
climbs they'll do in the next few days (steeper than the Alps). Jan
hasn't been able to match those accelerations but he is able to
recover
most of his losses by the time the reaches the finish. I think Lance
could attack a few k's from the finish each day and reap the benefit
of
his accelerations without giving Jan enough time to claw his way
back.
If Lance can gain 20-40 seconds on 3 or 4 occasions he should be
able
to win the Tour. Tyler should follow Jan around and see what he can
get.

-WG

Tom Kunich wrote:
Warren, Lance is slower than last year by a fairly wide margin. What
would you think about that if you were to think about that?


You need to justify this statement. Certainly the ITT data don't support
this conjecture. You compare Lance to Ullrich. What if you compare
him to Botaro? Last year Botaro was faster. This year Lance was much
faster.

Last year, Miller was 39 seconds slower
than Lance in ITT1. This year, Miller was
almost two minutes slower.

Last year, Hamilton was 1:56 slower. This year,
he was 1:07 slower.

Last year, Basso was 1:32 slower. This year,
he was 4:24 slower.

Last year, Zubeldia was 2:39 slower. This year,
1:04 slower.

Last year, Chaurreau was 4:58 slower. This year,
only 2:25 slower.

Mancebo went from 2:30 down in 2002, to 3:24 down
this year.

So I'm getting a mixed picture. Seven riders --
3 improved on Armstrong relative to last year,
4 got slower relative to Armstrong. I see
no signature of a "fairly wide margin".

Dan

In article k.net,
Tom Kunich wrote:

Warren, Lance is slower than last year by a fairly wide margin. What
would you think about that if you were to think about that?

I don't see that he is much slower than last year. His strategy has
been a bit different but this year there will be four days in the
steeper mountains when there were only three days last year. He
accelerated away from Jan on the Alpe and I think he can do that again
in the next few days.

-WG


"warren" wrote in message
...
I think Jan just needs to stay close to Armstrong and take his
chances
in the final TT for the jersey. He can't get away from Lance unless
Lance just blows up.

Armstrong and his buddy Heras are good at accelerating on the
steeper
climbs they'll do in the next few days (steeper than the Alps). Jan
hasn't been able to match those accelerations but he is able to
recover
most of his losses by the time the reaches the finish. I think Lance
could attack a few k's from the finish each day and reap the benefit
of
his accelerations without giving Jan enough time to claw his way
back.
If Lance can gain 20-40 seconds on 3 or 4 occasions he should be
able
to win the Tour. Tyler should follow Jan around and see what he can
get.

-WG

"warren" wrote in message
...
I think Jan just needs to stay close to Armstrong and take his chances
in the final TT for the jersey. He can't get away from Lance unless
Lance just blows up.

Armstrong and his buddy Heras are good at accelerating on the steeper
climbs they'll do in the next few days (steeper than the Alps). Jan
hasn't been able to match those accelerations but he is able to recover
most of his losses by the time the reaches the finish. I think Lance
could attack a few k's from the finish each day and reap the benefit of
his accelerations without giving Jan enough time to claw his way back.
If Lance can gain 20-40 seconds on 3 or 4 occasions he should be able
to win the Tour.

Yes....provided of course he doesn't let Mayo and the other Spanish riders
gain too much time...



Tyler should follow Jan around and see what he can
get.

-WG

"warren" wrote in message
...
I think Jan just needs to stay close to Armstrong and take his chances
in the final TT for the jersey. He can't get away from Lance unless
Lance just blows up.

I see Vino as a bigger threat than Jan right now. If he can manage anything
like the same time he put into LA on L'Alpe over the next 3 stages, and he
time trials as well as he did today in the penultimate stage, he could walk
away with it.

On the other hand, if we see today that Jan has mountain legs and can
contain his losses to Armstrong over the next 72 hours, then the race will
likely become a showdown in the final TT.

Whatever happens, today is going to be one hell of a day in the mountains!!

D.

Armstrong and his buddy Heras are good at accelerating on the steeper
climbs they'll do in the next few days (steeper than the Alps). Jan
hasn't been able to match those accelerations but he is able to recover
most of his losses by the time the reaches the finish. I think Lance
could attack a few k's from the finish each day and reap the benefit of
his accelerations without giving Jan enough time to claw his way back.
If Lance can gain 20-40 seconds on 3 or 4 occasions he should be able
to win the Tour. Tyler should follow Jan around and see what he can
get.

-WG


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(Bike Camano) wrote in message ...
It's more than a two horse race. If Vino continues to put time into Lance in
the mountains (and he says he will) Lance may have is hands full. That could
benefit Jan.

Tyler and Iban are not completely out of it (anything can happen in the tour) I
believe the next couple of days should be very interesting.

Lance is going to need some luck and maybe a a day or two of super form or some
off days by his rivals.

Mo

I don't think Tyler is out of it at all. He's had a few days of
non-steep riding, so his collarbone should affect him less.
Supposedly, he did his time trial at 95% effort.

Coverage starts in 45 minutes...I wish it were raining today, ****
it's like 70 degrees and cloudless, and I'm gonna sit here watching
the tour. It better be good (probably will).

"g" wrote in message
...
Although Lances ITT isn't as stella as before, he still easily makes
time on everyone except Jan.
Lance can afford to ignore attacks from everyone else, only focus on
what Jan is doing.


So he can ignore Vino?

Bike Camano wrote:

It's more than a two horse race. If Vino continues to put time into
Lance
in the mountains (and he says he will) Lance may have is hands full.
That
could benefit Jan.

Tyler and Iban are not completely out of it (anything can happen in the
tour) I believe the next couple of days should be very interesting.

Lance is going to need some luck and maybe a a day or two of super form
or
some off days by his rivals.

Mo