Where's Lance?

In article ,
says...

"James Thomson" wrote in message

A few flat stages are won by lucky breakaway riders who time their escapes
well, or whose chance of an overall victory is deemed so slim that the
peloton doesn't deign to expend the energy required to chase them down.
Any
attempt at a break by a major player would prompt an immediate response
from his rivals and their team mates, so again, the big names sit tight in
the peloton while the small fry are allowed a little glory.

The mountain stages and time trials are where big gains can be made. The
aerodynamic advantage of the peloton disappears, and large amounts of time
can be gained and lost. The climbing specialists and overall contenders
fight it out in the Alps and Pyrenees, while the sprinters either pack
their bags and head for the beach, or straggle home inside the daily time
limit to remain in contention for the green jersey in Paris.

I believe the rule is that the last rider must finish each day within 10
percent of that day's ride time of the leader, thus a 5 hr. finish time for
the stage win means that the Lantern Rouge (red lantern, or last rider on
the train, or however it's spelled in French) must finish no more then 30
minutes back.

The time cut actually varies, depending on the length, difficulty, etc,
of the stage, and it is not a hard-and-fast rule anyway; they are not
required to drop anybody if they don't want to, no matter how far back
he finishes.

.....


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"Badger_South" wrote in message
...
On Wed, 07 Jul 2004 02:21:31 GMT, "curt" wrote:

The TTT should be great. I think Hamilton is going to be Lance's
biggest
rival this year. Two Americans on the final podium is not impossible.
Ullrich is a threat but I don't think he can hang on in the mountains,
and
he's not a great descender. Should be a heck of a Tour, for certain.

I feel Jan is the biggest competitor to Lance as Lance himself believes.
I
really don't feel Tyler is strong enough to really be a contender...JMHO.
Regardless, it was fun to watch today and I feel it is really going to be
a
great tour again.

Curt

Most recently the oddsmakers are putting Lance as the favorite 1:1.6, with
Ulrich ~ 2.6:1, and Tyler at ~12:1, FWIW.

-B

Cool. Those guys are usually pretty much on the mark.

Curt

Back up on the podium in yellow, that's where!

Bill "Big Blue Train was absolutely beautiful today" S.

On Wed, 07 Jul 2004 15:58:46 GMT, "curt" wrote:


"Badger_South" wrote in message
.. .
On Wed, 07 Jul 2004 02:21:31 GMT, "curt" wrote:

The TTT should be great. I think Hamilton is going to be Lance's
biggest
rival this year. Two Americans on the final podium is not impossible.
Ullrich is a threat but I don't think he can hang on in the mountains,
and
he's not a great descender. Should be a heck of a Tour, for certain.

I feel Jan is the biggest competitor to Lance as Lance himself believes.
I
really don't feel Tyler is strong enough to really be a contender...JMHO.
Regardless, it was fun to watch today and I feel it is really going to be
a
great tour again.

Curt

Most recently the oddsmakers are putting Lance as the favorite 1:1.6, with
Ulrich ~ 2.6:1, and Tyler at ~12:1, FWIW.

-B

Cool. Those guys are usually pretty much on the mark.

Curt

Here's a site which gives the odds as of Sunday w/
Lance - 0.73:1
Ullrich - 3.6:1
Tyler - 6.8:1
Heras - 31:1

http://www.readabet.com/index.php/Sports/article/4980

I have only a rudimentary understanding of betting and odds (read:none) -
heh, so if anyone cares to interpret any of this stuff, feel free. ;-p

-B

In answer to the thread title question, it's way too early to start either
worrying or boasting. I'll follow each stage but, barring a crash like Mayo's,
it won't be *really* "interesting" until they reach about stage 13 or so. IMO
and looking at the schedule and stage maps, Stage 13 should be either the
beginning or the beginning of the end for Lance's rivals. Again IMO, Stage 19
could be THE deciding stage.
Personally, I'd like to see Lance win this Tour and then retire. It happens so
seldom in any sport- Miguel Indurain, Sugar Ray Leonard, Michael Jordan... need
I go on?- that it would be nice to see someone exit while still at or near the
top of their game.

Regards,
Bob Hunt

Hunrobe wrote:
In answer to the thread title question, it's way too early to start
either worrying or boasting. I'll follow each stage but, barring a
crash like Mayo's, it won't be *really* "interesting" until they
reach about stage 13 or so. IMO and looking at the schedule and stage
maps, Stage 13 should be either the beginning or the beginning of the
end for Lance's rivals. Again IMO, Stage 19 could be THE deciding
stage.
Personally, I'd like to see Lance win this Tour and then retire. It
happens so seldom in any sport- Miguel Indurain, Sugar Ray Leonard,
Michael Jordan... need I go on?- that it would be nice to see someone
exit while still at or near the top of their game.

Won't happen, though, due to the new Discovery Channel sponsorship deal.
Maybe next year?

Bill "don't know enough about racing to comment on first paragraph (but sure
sounds right-on)" S.

Badger_South wrote in message . ..
The announcers were just talking about Lance hanging in like 8th place to
stay out of trouble and stuff, and I don't see him in any of the stages,
except for the 2nd place in the Prologue. Yet they're talking about this as
a winning strategy.

How can he do this. Uh, I'm pretty clueless about how they score and get
"points" and stuff, so if there's a FAQ for TdF dummies, a pointer perhaps?

Do you have to win a certain number of stages, or do you just hang back and
then get a time lead in the mountains or something?

Sorry for the possibly dumb questions on this... ;-)

-B

You've got a lot of good, informative answers. By now, if you have
followed all week, you will have seen a great set of tactical moves,
and a big strategic alliance, in stage 3. Lots of tactical
maneuvering to get to the front of the pack before the cobbles, and
Hincapie/Ekimov did a great job of pulling LA into that lead position
as the main peleton entered that segment. The big strategic move came
as the peleton split in that section, leaving many riders including
one of the favored contenders, Iban Mayo, in the rear. With the
possibility of opening up a time gap between a team leader and a major
rival you saw USPS, Phonak, T-Mobile, etc. turn up the tempo in the
front section of the peleton. Cooperation to put a rival at a
disadvantage.

The more subtle strategy of the week was to position USPS as the top
team before stage 4; that gave them 21st position (last) in the team
time trial. Important as they then had info on the status of the
course and how all their rivals were faring, and could adjust
appropriately. You will see the results of that strategy, and todays
TTT results, mirrored in the current individual standings.

- rick

On 7 Jul 2004 13:42:28 -0700, (Rick Warner) wrote:

You've got a lot of good, informative answers. By now, if you have
followed all week, you will have seen a great set of tactical moves,
and a big strategic alliance, in stage 3. Lots of tactical
maneuvering to get to the front of the pack before the cobbles, and
Hincapie/Ekimov did a great job of pulling LA into that lead position
as the main peleton entered that segment. The big strategic move came
as the peleton split in that section, leaving many riders including
one of the favored contenders, Iban Mayo, in the rear. With the
possibility of opening up a time gap between a team leader and a major
rival you saw USPS, Phonak, T-Mobile, etc. turn up the tempo in the
front section of the peleton. Cooperation to put a rival at a
disadvantage.

The more subtle strategy of the week was to position USPS as the top
team before stage 4; that gave them 21st position (last) in the team
time trial. Important as they then had info on the status of the
course and how all their rivals were faring, and could adjust
appropriately. You will see the results of that strategy, and todays
TTT results, mirrored in the current individual standings.

- rick

I'll be on the lookout for these. Unfortunately, I don't get the OLN feed
until the 11th. I've been trying to keep up with the daily broadcasts web
sound broadcasts and streaming vids.

Can you elaborate just a teensy bit more on the big strategic move for
those of us following along the hard way? I assume it was to take advantage
of the cautiousness in the cobblestone section? (The USPS strat is pretty
self-explanatory.)

Thanks for the heads up on these, Rick. I'm in serious envy of those with
video, until Sunday, I'm afraid.

-B