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#922
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published helmet research - not troll
On Fri, 16 Jul 2004 01:35:32 GMT, (Bill Z.)
wrote in message : She obviously has a political agenda on this topic - mostly related to helmet laws And how do you go about campaigning on legislative issues without engaging in politics? Clearly politics, like helmet research, recumbents, offline newsreaders, Godwin's Law and time zones is in the "things Bill doesn't understand" box. Do you understand the difference between having a political agenda and campaigning? Yes, Bill, I do. Having accused me of a political agenda solely on the basis of having a copy of a piece of draft legislation - a compulsory helmet law against which I was campaigning - it would appear that you do not. I also have copies of parts of the Road Traffic Act and of the Road Vehicles Lighting Regulations (strictly speaking a Statutory Instrument, not a law, of course), on which I have also campaigned, having been invited to take part in a public consultation on its revision. You can read that as a "political agenda" (interesting in context, since both sides in the helmet debate had copies of the Bill and it was actually drafted by the Liddites themselves) or you can take it as a sign of someone who has taken steps to become better informed on the subject under debate. The consensus seems to be the latter. I know campaigners against lid laws whose party politics are at opposite ends of the spectrum. I also know that laws are changed by politicians, and compulsion is therefore de facto a political issue. Perhaps I'd take you more seriously if you didn't go around trying to put words in my mouth. LOL! Which party does Dorre vote for, Bill? Come on, if her political agenda is that overt then it must be obvious. Or, since you've also accused me of having a political agenda, which party do I vote for? Guy -- May contain traces of irony. Contents liable to settle after posting. http://www.chapmancentral.co.uk 88% of helmet statistics are made up, 65% of them at Washington University |
#923
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published helmet research - not troll
On Wed, 14 Jul 2004 05:20:34 GMT, (Bill Z.)
wrote (more or less): "Tom Kunich" writes: "Bill Z." wrote in message ... "Tom Kunich" writes: The same thing happened in California and Bill said that wasn't so. He told us that the three brands who provided the vast majority of bicycle shop children's bicycles couldn't possibly have stopped manufacturing bicycles for children because they were no longer riding. His theory was that they stopped buying bicycles because they already had enough. Thereby proving his excellent marketing skills and knowledge as well. What I actually pointed out is that the helmet laws were never really enforced. How is a law that is unenforced going to stop people from cycling? Oh, I don't know -- because for kids they were 100% enforced BY THE SCHOOLS??? The schools have no authority once the kids leave the premises.. That may be true for some jurisdictions, but is not universally true. The British system has schools retaining a duty of care for pupils on the way from home to school, and on the way from school to home. I believe Australia and New Zealand are the same. -- Cheers, Euan Gawnsoft: http://www.gawnsoft.co.sr Symbian/Epoc wiki: http://html.dnsalias.net:1122 Smalltalk links (harvested from comp.lang.smalltalk) http://html.dnsalias.net/gawnsoft/smalltalk |
#924
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published helmet research - not troll
(Frank Krygowski) writes:
(Bill Z.) wrote in message ... "Just zis Guy, you know?" writes: Amazing, though, how despite my having posted them *four times* you have not been able to rebut a single one of the criticisms levelled at the paper linked above. One can only conclude that you accept them without reservation. What criticisms? As I said, when you posted a rude statement, I simply skipped the remainer of your posts that day. In fact, I don't accept anything you've said on the topic, least of all statements by you that I never read. :-) Well, that's certainly a creative excuse for doing no homework! The rub is this: by your standards - "when you posted a rude statement, I simply skipped the remainer of your posts that day" - nobody would ever read _your_ posts, Bill! You should at least work on making your arguments internally consistent! I've only replied rudely to people who were rude to me, lied about what I said, etc. 90% of what you've been saying on this thread has consisted of nothing but personal attacks. -- My real name backwards: nemuaZ lliB |
#925
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published helmet research - not troll
"Just zis Guy, you know?" writes:
On Fri, 16 Jul 2004 01:33:42 GMT, (Bill Z.) wrote in message : As I said, if you start off frothing at the mouth, I'll simply skip whatever else you might be saying. LOL! As I said, if you start every post with a playground insult, expect every reply to start with a riposte. Every post of yours were I told you off has been a post containing a personal attack initiated on your part, often misrepresenting what I said. to the battle of wits unarmed, the riposte will usually me considerably more inventive and pertient than your insult. What "riposts"? All you've done is post one misrepresentation after another, with childish snide remarks. But hey, it's a great way of ignoring the facts which tell against your arguments: ignoring time zones, threading and the characteristics of newsreaders (most of which read by default in thread order rather than date/time order) you can start a flame subthread with your inanities, which as long as it sits above the rest of the thread, enables you to pretend that ignoring someone's arguments is a valid response. The facts are that the first thing you posted as a reply to anything I said *started* with a personal attack. It's the standard story from the anti-helmet camp that you joined by aligning yourself with some of the worst cases on usenet. Oh, and BTW, I've *gone* through multiple of your messages and they contained *nothing* but personal attacks one after the other. Then you whine when I start ignoring you. Of course, just as with Scuffham, you are the only one who's fooled. What do you have against Scuffham? -- My real name backwards: nemuaZ lliB |
#926
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published helmet research - not troll
"Just zis Guy, you know?" writes:
On Fri, 16 Jul 2004 01:30:52 GMT, (Bill Z.) wrote in message : Amazing, though, how despite my having posted them *four times* you have not been able to rebut a single one of the criticisms levelled at the paper linked above. One can only conclude that you accept them without reservation. What criticisms? Of the 2002 study in IP, based on the figures from the earlier studies (as pointed out by others) and therefore including the inaccurate 19% figure as an underlying assumption, these are some of the key criticisms: The "others" are not credible sources. They've consistently complained about every helmet study showing positive results ever published, no matter how small a benefit such a study showed. Further more these same critics heaped praises on Scuffham over the past 10 years or so (until now.) 1. The results claim a benefit for the age group 5-12. However, as the report admits, the results are very sensitive to helmet wearing rates before the law. This was 87% in the 5-12 age group, 56% in the 13-18 group and 39% for adults. Because the wearing rate was already so high for young children, relatively few helmets had to be purchased as a direct consequence of the law, resulting in lower user costs than for older users. But the benefit measured was the reduction in injury-related costs due to those extra helmets. What's probably going on is that in the older groups, the people who weren't using helmets simply weren't riding very much any more anyway. The study takes into account only the cost of helmets purchased when the law came into force, assuming previous purchases to have been 'voluntary'. However the 87% wearing rate was only achieved by a combination of pre-law publicity and persuading schools to introduce 'compulsory' wearing long before the law itself. By ignoring the cost of earlier helmet purchases, the study is misleading and substantially underestimates user costs. The study was about the effigacy of legislation. On this basis alone, helmets are not cost-effective for 5-12 year old cyclists if fewer than two-thirds of the children would wear one with no external influence. That's simply not true. Children in that age group are mostly told to wear a helmet by their parents. They don't generally decide on their own, and there basic riding skills and mileage are not correlated with their parent's purchasing decisions. If only 5% of users would choose to wear a helmet voluntarily (typical of the Netherlands), benefit:cost ratios fall generally, to 0.30, 0.36 and 0.43 respectively for the 5-12, 13-18 and 19 year age groups. Well, that's obviously not true. The 5-12 group consists primarily of kids using bicycles for basic transportation or to play with their friends. For adults and most teens, you get a few who become interested in cycling as a sport. Most of the others stop cycling or just ride occassionally for very short distances. The additional helmets after the law went into effect for adults and older teens were probably mostly purchased by people who put in very little annual mileage, with correspondingly yearly low accident rates (due to so little time spent on a bike.) 2. The head injury reductions assumed for this report are those arising from Head injuries to bicyclists and the New Zealand bicycle helmet law. The critique for this key paper shows that its results are misleading, with no medium term net benefit in head injuries. If this is the case, the cost:benefit figures in this paper would be very much worse. The "critique" is not credible. 3. The costs assumed for quitting cycling are low in the extreme at $49.95 (£15.48) per person. This includes just $30 (£9.30) for costs arising from reduced exercise and increased car use. By comparison it costs the economy £2 billion per year for obesity, which is just one of the negative health consequences when people no longer take regular exercise. How you avoid obesity is an individual choice. You don't have to ride a bicycle to do that. Even these very low costs are ignored by the report for people who quit cycling in the run-up to the law. In the view of the authors, fewer people cycling is seen as a positive outcome of the law. The authors never said that in the paper we are discussing. You made that up. They merely indicated what the numbers would be if you included the reductions in head injuries due to that. In addition, the quoted five year life for helmets is invalid for the under-12 age range; they grow out of them in less time than that (about 3 years is closer to the mark). This alone may well also remove the supposed benefit in its entirety. You mean a helmet can't be handed down to a younger sibling? For reference, I do not know of any jurisdiction where the voluntary helmet wearing rate for children has been measured as high as 50%; remember that Scuffham's supposed benefit vanishes if the voluntary rate would have been as low as 2/3. What's your point on that? Do you think his numbers were not accurate? If so, why? As I said, when you posted a rude statement, I simply skipped the remainer of your posts that day. In fact, I don't accept anything you've said on the topic, least of all statements by you that I never read. Except that the response was posted four separate times and on more than one day, in response to your repeated refusal to read it. Yep - you continued your personal attacks so I flushed every post I saw on a day when you were in a bad mood.. I'm in California. You might want to look at the time-zone difference. I end up seeing a list of N messages from you, often all in a row. If the first one (or maybe two) are just mindless insults, the rest of yours get flushed. you are going to sulk when people to post ripostes to your playground insults you really need to cultivate a radically different posting style. Repeating yourself over and over in the hopes that people will believe you? It is typical of you people. Bill -- My real name backwards: nemuaZ lliB |
#927
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published helmet research - not troll
Gawnsoft writes:
On Wed, 14 Jul 2004 05:20:34 GMT, (Bill Z.) wrote (more or less): Oh, I don't know -- because for kids they were 100% enforced BY THE SCHOOLS??? The schools have no authority once the kids leave the premises.. That may be true for some jurisdictions, but is not universally true. The British system has schools retaining a duty of care for pupils on the way from home to school, and on the way from school to home. I believe Australia and New Zealand are the same. Both of us live in California (same area.) This discussion came up a few years ago and Kunich specifically mentioned a town about 10 miles (16 km) from where I live. -- My real name backwards: nemuaZ lliB |
#928
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published helmet research - not troll
On Sat, 17 Jul 2004 00:45:17 GMT, (Bill Z.)
wrote in message : LOL! As I said, if you start every post with a playground insult, expect every reply to start with a riposte. Every post of yours were I told you off has been a post containing a personal attack initiated on your part, often misrepresenting what I said. I did not start the name-calling, your definition of "personal attack" includes "riposte to Zaumen's playground insults" and you also have an unusually broad definition of "misrepresentation". to the battle of wits unarmed, the riposte will usually me considerably more inventive and pertient than your insult. What "riposts"? All you've done is post one misrepresentation after another, with childish snide remarks. Said the man who started the playground insults. But hey, it's a great way of ignoring the facts which tell against your arguments The facts are that the first thing you posted as a reply to anything I said *started* with a personal attack. That is simply untrue - as you would know if you had not been avoiding addressing most of my points due to your lack of understanding of time zones and offline newsreaders. It's the standard story from the anti-helmet camp that you joined by aligning yourself with some of the worst cases on usenet. Where is this anti-helmet camp? Still no evidence that there exist more than a handful of people who are anti helmet. Anti bull****, yes, plenty of those - they are the ones who rebut Scuffham and other idiocies. Oh, and BTW, I've *gone* through multiple of your messages and they contained *nothing* but personal attacks one after the other. Then you whine when I start ignoring you. To use one of your favourite words: liar. Of course, just as with Scuffham, you are the only one who's fooled. What do you have against Scuffham? Nothing, other than the fact that he has manipulated the data, working back from the desired conclusion to the data. He is defending an unjust and ineffective law which should be repealed. Guy -- May contain traces of irony. Contents liable to settle after posting. http://www.chapmancentral.co.uk 88% of helmet statistics are made up, 65% of them at Washington University |
#929
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published helmet research - not troll
On Sat, 17 Jul 2004 00:38:36 GMT, (Bill Z.)
wrote in message : I've only replied rudely to people who were rude to me Ever met Ed Dolan? He gets his retaliation in first, too. Guy -- May contain traces of irony. Contents liable to settle after posting. http://www.chapmancentral.co.uk 88% of helmet statistics are made up, 65% of them at Washington University |
#930
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published helmet research - not troll
On Sat, 17 Jul 2004 01:07:11 GMT, (Bill Z.)
wrote in message : Of the 2002 study in IP, based on the figures from the earlier studies (as pointed out by others) and therefore including the inaccurate 19% figure as an underlying assumption, these are some of the key criticisms: The "others" are not credible sources. They've consistently complained about every helmet study showing positive results ever published, no matter how small a benefit such a study showed. Ah, so your benchmark for credibility is that they accept the small-scale studies despite their flaws? Or is it sufficient merely to agree with you in order to be credible? I don't know of any pro-helmet paper which does not contain flaws. Ultimately the biggest flaw is that the benefit shown is never delivered in real populations, so the authords have always failed to account for at least one major confounding factor. Further more these same critics heaped praises on Scuffham over the past 10 years or so (until now.) That might be because he was originally using the whole time series and admitting it showed no benefit. Once he reduced the time window and ignored pre-existing trends in order to prove benefit where clearly none exists, his stock went down a bit. 1. The results claim a benefit for the age group 5-12. However, as the report admits, the results are very sensitive to helmet wearing rates before the law. This was 87% in the 5-12 age group, 56% in the 13-18 group and 39% for adults. Because the wearing rate was already so high for young children, relatively few helmets had to be purchased as a direct consequence of the law, resulting in lower user costs than for older users. But the benefit measured was the reduction in injury-related costs due to those extra helmets. What's probably going on is that in the older groups, the people who weren't using helmets simply weren't riding very much any more anyway. That is an assumption unsupported by evidence. The criticism stands: even within the limited scope you suggest, benefit can only be shown if over 2/3 of child cyclists would have worn a helmet anyway, a figure which has not, to my knowledge, been achieved anywhere without compulsion. If one assumes that the voluntary wearing rate would be under 2/3, as it invariably is without compulsion, then the costs of helmets outweighs the "savings" in injuries, notwithstanding the fact that the data had to be massaged to provide the claimed savings int he first place. The study takes into account only the cost of helmets purchased when the law came into force, assuming previous purchases to have been 'voluntary'. However the 87% wearing rate was only achieved by a combination of pre-law publicity and persuading schools to introduce 'compulsory' wearing long before the law itself. By ignoring the cost of earlier helmet purchases, the study is misleading and substantially underestimates user costs. The study was about the effigacy of legislation. It was about the cost-effectiveness of the legislation. The valid criticisms regarding the arbitrary exclusion of much of the cost goes to the heart of the paper's argument. On this basis alone, helmets are not cost-effective for 5-12 year old cyclists if fewer than two-thirds of the children would wear one with no external influence. That's simply not true. Children in that age group are mostly told to wear a helmet by their parents. They don't generally decide on their own, and there basic riding skills and mileage are not correlated with their parent's purchasing decisions. Child helmet counts in the UK show consistently under 20% wearing rates. The voluntary wearing rate has never reached 50% anywhere I know of. Therefore, by the lights of the paper's own argument, helmets provide no benefit. Remember, this paper is not about the safety benefit, it's about cost benefit. The safety benefit comes from the 2000 selective reinterpretation of the earlier data, and has already been soundly rebutted. If only 5% of users would choose to wear a helmet voluntarily (typical of the Netherlands), benefit:cost ratios fall generally, to 0.30, 0.36 and 0.43 respectively for the 5-12, 13-18 and 19 year age groups. Well, that's obviously not true. You've run it through the formula, have you? Nigel Perry did, and that was the answer. This is Scuffham's own formula applied to the voluntary wearing rate in the Netherlands. Are you saying the forumla is wrong? In which case the whole paper is wrong. The 5-12 group consists primarily of kids using bicycles for basic transportation or to play with their friends. For adults and most teens, you get a few who become interested in cycling as a sport. Most of the others stop cycling or just ride occassionally for very short distances. The additional helmets after the law went into effect for adults and older teens were probably mostly purchased by people who put in very little annual mileage, with correspondingly yearly low accident rates (due to so little time spent on a bike.) That is an assumption based on no data, and in any case does not affect the validity of the criticism. The paper is computing whether helmets provide a cost benefit, the criticism shows that the underlying assumptions for costs are wrong, and that if they are corrected the supposed benefit (applying to a single age group) vanishes. The report itself shows no cost-benefit for the older age groups. 2. The head injury reductions assumed for this report are those arising from Head injuries to bicyclists and the New Zealand bicycle helmet law. The critique for this key paper shows that its results are misleading, with no medium term net benefit in head injuries. If this is the case, the cost:benefit figures in this paper would be very much worse. The "critique" is not credible. By virtue of having been written by people who disagree wioth you? or do you have some specific insight into the 2000 paper on which the injury saving data is based? Scuffham originally proposed no benefit, after all, and it was only by careful selection of data points and ignoring pre-existing trends that he proved even the small benefit he says he did (and still a long way short of the prospective studies, remember). The criticisms look robust to me, having also looked at Scuffham's earlier work based on the same data. You need to go back and read both this paper and the one on which it is based, the 2000 AAP paper. The two are indivisible; a weakness in the AAP paper is a weakness in the IP paper. It's like a house of cards. 3. The costs assumed for quitting cycling are low in the extreme at $49.95 (£15.48) per person. This includes just $30 (£9.30) for costs arising from reduced exercise and increased car use. By comparison it costs the economy £2 billion per year for obesity, which is just one of the negative health consequences when people no longer take regular exercise. How you avoid obesity is an individual choice. You don't have to ride a bicycle to do that. There is a lot of research out there which shows that riding a bike for transport is one of, if not the, most effective life choices you can make in terms of long-term health and fitness. Our Government are pinning a lot of hopes on that. Even these very low costs are ignored by the report for people who quit cycling in the run-up to the law. In the view of the authors, fewer people cycling is seen as a positive outcome of the law. The authors never said that in the paper we are discussing. You made that up. They merely indicated what the numbers would be if you included the reductions in head injuries due to that. The authors show that once you include their supposed costs for loss of cycling, the cost-benefit is increased. In other words, they are counting lost cycling as a banfit, which implies that cyclists are more likely to incur injury costs than to extend their lives. That is wrong. Estimates vary, but every calculation I know of shows that the benefits of cycling outweigh the risks, helmet or no. Of course, it helps if you start by assuming thathelmets prevent a meaningful number of serious and fatal injuries, but that, too, is unsupportable. As to whether the report ignores the costs of those who quit cycling in the run-up to compulsion, show me where it says they are included. Compulsion was preceded by a period of intensive propaganda, and helmet propaganda /always/ portrays cycling as dangerous (how can you sell someone protection from a non-existent danger?). There is evidence that merely promoting helmets deters cycling. There is evidence that the run-up to the law in NZ saw a decline in cyclist numbers. The authors do not account for that, so they are ignoring part of the cost. In addition, the quoted five year life for helmets is invalid for the under-12 age range; they grow out of them in less time than that (about 3 years is closer to the mark). This alone may well also remove the supposed benefit in its entirety. You mean a helmet can't be handed down to a younger sibling? Not unless they have the same shaped head (our two definitely don't). After three years Michaels helmet was in any case pretty much trashed. The manufacturers recommend that helemts are replaced every 3-5 years, so by assuming the top of that range the authors are in any case not being entirely honest. And there are plenty of households with only one child. The authors also assume that no helmets will be lost, stolen, trodden on and damaged or whatever. Assuming a 5-year life for a child's helmet is definitely optimistic. For reference, I do not know of any jurisdiction where the voluntary helmet wearing rate for children has been measured as high as 50%; remember that Scuffham's supposed benefit vanishes if the voluntary rate would have been as low as 2/3. What's your point on that? Do you think his numbers were not accurate? If so, why? The point is, the authors' assertion of cost-benefit for the youngest age group is explicitly based on few additional helmets being bought due to the law. It assumes that without the law and the pre-law promotion period the voluntary wearing rate would still have been 87%. This is an invalid assumption. No jurisdiction without compulsion has ever approached that. I know of none which has exceeded 50% without compulsion. Actually I don't know of a jurisduction which has achieved even that without some form of coercion. If the voluntary wearing rate would have been below 2/3, the entire supposed cost-benefit for the only age group which shows such benefit, vanishes. As I said, when you posted a rude statement, I simply skipped the remainer of your posts that day. In fact, I don't accept anything you've said on the topic, least of all statements by you that I never read. Except that the response was posted four separate times and on more than one day, in response to your repeated refusal to read it. Yep - you continued your personal attacks so I flushed every post I saw on a day when you were in a bad mood.. Whereas you are only rude on days with a Y in the name. Do try to elevate the discussion above the level of the playground. I'm in California. You might want to look at the time-zone difference. I end up seeing a list of N messages from you, often all in a row. If the first one (or maybe two) are just mindless insults, the rest of yours get flushed. As previously explained, the threading model of most newsreaders means that the subthreads higher up the tree, which you dragged into pointless name-calling some time ago, will always appear first. And the time zone difference (8 hours) means I am quite likely to be posting when others are not. Right now it is 9:38am here, 1:38am where you are. you are going to sulk when people to post ripostes to your playground insults you really need to cultivate a radically different posting style. Repeating yourself over and over in the hopes that people will believe you? It is typical of you people. You will now, of course, post a link to where I said this before. Oh, I didn't. Zaumen wrong again shock, pictures at 11. Guy -- May contain traces of irony. Contents liable to settle after posting. http://www.chapmancentral.co.uk 88% of helmet statistics are made up, 65% of them at Washington University |
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