Predictions please.

Hi All,

This weekend is my big race of the year. I amuse several of my riding
buddies with often quite accurate predictions of their (and my) times
over various courses, and now the pressure is on to predict our time
for this race. Little do they know that all I do is punch in data into
various online calculators and make some educated WAGs to arrive at my
predictions. This time I need help with my prediction, so anyone
interested give me your prediction and your reasoning. Whoever is
closest wins a postcard (at the least!).

The race is Trondheim-Oslo in Norway. 540km with 4,400m of total
ascent. Profile he
http://www.styrkeproven.no/upload/20...oypeprofil.pdf

The weather while perfect now is forecast (as usual) to be rain and
slight headwinds.

I have done the race 5 times with times from 24 hours down to 19. This
is the first time I will do the race as part of a team with organized
support cars, etc. The combination of the positive effect of support
logistics and riding with a team make any assesment based on my
previous performances not very useful. And I am WAY stonger now than
ever before. Our team is looking for sub 15 hours, and if the weather
cooperates that should be theoretically possible. Last time the team
(with about 10 of the current 29 members participating, the rest are
new guys myself included) managed 15:13. That same year a new record
was set by Rye of 13:28. This year we were 1 hour behind Rye in the
230km Mjøsa Rundt a few weeks ago.

Our problem is we may overdo it the first 200km up to the mountain. In
our group rides the tendency has been to ride too fast and then for
(almost) everyone to not admit it afterward that they thought it was
too fast. So I full expect several guys to be used up already after
the first 200km. I think eating enough will also be a problem for
many. Our team captain has told me speciffically that I have to let
him know how I'm doing up the hill because I am particularly important
for the downhill/flat section from km 200 to 350. I'm pretty sure
I'll be fine at least to km 450 where the road gets more hilly and I
will perhaps have run dry. If I have to let go, it will probably be
there.

So the team's weakness is sub-optimal discipline, and perhaps too
ambitious a goal. My weakness is I may have to go too hard in the
beginning up the hill to keep up, such that I go empty earlier than
desired.

How fast will the team manage? Will I hold on to the finish? If not,
where will I let go and what will my time be?

Joseph

On Jun 20, 7:13 pm, joseph wrote:

The race is Trondheim-Oslo in Norway. 540km with 4,400m of total
ascent.
Last time the team
(with about 10 of the current 29 members participating, the rest are
new guys myself included) managed 15:13.

How do you time a team? 15th guy? And how do you set up a rotation?

On Jun 20, 10:13 am, "
wrote:
Hi All,

This weekend is my big race of the year. I amuse several of my riding
buddies with often quite accurate predictions of their (and my) times
over various courses, and now the pressure is on to predict our time
for this race. Little do they know that all I do is punch in data into
various online calculators and make some educated WAGs to arrive at my
predictions. This time I need help with my prediction, so anyone
interested give me your prediction and your reasoning. Whoever is
closest wins a postcard (at the least!).

The race is Trondheim-Oslo in Norway. 540km with 4,400m of total
ascent. Profile hehttp://www.styrkeproven.no/upload/20...oypeprofil.pdf

The weather while perfect now is forecast (as usual) to be rain and
slight headwinds.

I have done the race 5 times with times from 24 hours down to 19. This
is the first time I will do the race as part of a team with organized
support cars, etc. The combination of the positive effect of support
logistics and riding with a team make any assesment based on my
previous performances not very useful. And I am WAY stonger now than
ever before. Our team is looking for sub 15 hours, and if the weather
cooperates that should be theoretically possible. Last time the team
(with about 10 of the current 29 members participating, the rest are
new guys myself included) managed 15:13. That same year a new record
was set by Rye of 13:28. This year we were 1 hour behind Rye in the
230km Mjøsa Rundt a few weeks ago.

Our problem is we may overdo it the first 200km up to the mountain. In
our group rides the tendency has been to ride too fast and then for
(almost) everyone to not admit it afterward that they thought it was
too fast. So I full expect several guys to be used up already after
the first 200km. I think eating enough will also be a problem for
many. Our team captain has told me speciffically that I have to let
him know how I'm doing up the hill because I am particularly important
for the downhill/flat section from km 200 to 350. I'm pretty sure
I'll be fine at least to km 450 where the road gets more hilly and I
will perhaps have run dry. If I have to let go, it will probably be
there.

So the team's weakness is sub-optimal discipline, and perhaps too
ambitious a goal. My weakness is I may have to go too hard in the
beginning up the hill to keep up, such that I go empty earlier than
desired.

How fast will the team manage? Will I hold on to the finish? If not,
where will I let go and what will my time be?

Unsupported you averaged 28 kph in a 540 km ride with 4400 m of
climbing? I find that pretty hard to believe. I assume that didn't
include the time spend in rest stops along the way.

On Jun 21, 7:25 pm, wrote:
On Jun 20, 7:13 pm, joseph wrote:

The race is Trondheim-Oslo in Norway. 540km with 4,400m of total
ascent.
Last time the team
(with about 10 of the current 29 members participating, the rest are
new guys myself included) managed 15:13.

How do you time a team? 15th guy? And how do you set up a rotation?

The team competition is officially the 10th guy's time. Or maybe the
cumulative of the top 10, I don't recall. Ideally 13-15 out of the 28
starters will finish together. The rotation is constant except it is
locked on hills and in dangerous sections like tunnels and successive
roundabouts. Ideally at least 24 guys should be in the roatation at
any time, with that number decreasing as guys get used up.

Joseph

On Jun 21, 7:39 pm, wrote:
On Jun 20, 10:13 am, "



wrote:
Hi All,

This weekend is my big race of the year. I amuse several of my riding
buddies with often quite accurate predictions of their (and my) times
over various courses, and now the pressure is on to predict our time
for this race. Little do they know that all I do is punch in data into
various online calculators and make some educated WAGs to arrive at my
predictions. This time I need help with my prediction, so anyone
interested give me your prediction and your reasoning. Whoever is
closest wins a postcard (at the least!).

The race is Trondheim-Oslo in Norway. 540km with 4,400m of total
ascent. Profile hehttp://www.styrkeproven.no/upload/20...oypeprofil.pdf

The weather while perfect now is forecast (as usual) to be rain and
slight headwinds.

I have done the race 5 times with times from 24 hours down to 19. This
is the first time I will do the race as part of a team with organized
support cars, etc. The combination of the positive effect of support
logistics and riding with a team make any assesment based on my
previous performances not very useful. And I am WAY stonger now than
ever before. Our team is looking for sub 15 hours, and if the weather
cooperates that should be theoretically possible. Last time the team
(with about 10 of the current 29 members participating, the rest are
new guys myself included) managed 15:13. That same year a new record
was set by Rye of 13:28. This year we were 1 hour behind Rye in the
230km Mjøsa Rundt a few weeks ago.

Our problem is we may overdo it the first 200km up to the mountain. In
our group rides the tendency has been to ride too fast and then for
(almost) everyone to not admit it afterward that they thought it was
too fast. So I full expect several guys to be used up already after
the first 200km. I think eating enough will also be a problem for
many. Our team captain has told me speciffically that I have to let
him know how I'm doing up the hill because I am particularly important
for the downhill/flat section from km 200 to 350. I'm pretty sure
I'll be fine at least to km 450 where the road gets more hilly and I
will perhaps have run dry. If I have to let go, it will probably be
there.

So the team's weakness is sub-optimal discipline, and perhaps too
ambitious a goal. My weakness is I may have to go too hard in the
beginning up the hill to keep up, such that I go empty earlier than
desired.

How fast will the team manage? Will I hold on to the finish? If not,
where will I let go and what will my time be?

Unsupported you averaged 28 kph in a 540 km ride with 4400 m of
climbing? I find that pretty hard to believe. I assume that didn't
include the time spend in rest stops along the way.

Then you will also find it hard to believe that there were over 600
men and women who did it faster than me. My times were hardly in the
fast category. The times given include all stops. The race is an
organized thing so there are food depots ever 60km or so where you can
fill up water bottles, get bananas, jam sandwiches, and stuff. It's
not like I had to waste time going into a gas station to buy candy or
something. The average speed of the winners is about 40km/h including
stops. Oh yeah, I forgot the winning team doesn't stop. One of the
reasons they won the last 6 years in a row.

Here are my split times for last year:

http://results.ultimate.dk/live/fron...w&l=no&Pid=994

and here are the splits for the current record holders:

http://results.ultimate.dk/live/fron...w&l=dk&Pid=255

That kind of puts it into perspective.

Joseph

On Jun 21, 8:33 pm, joseph wrote:

Ideally at least 24 guys should be in the roatation at
any time, with that number decreasing as guys get used up.

Yikes.

For team TTs, the pacing strategy is pretty tricky. You have to go
easier on hills (which you know) and with a tailwind (which you may
not have), or else you'll shatter your team.

On Jun 21, 9:41 pm, wrote:
On Jun 21, 8:33 pm, joseph wrote:

Ideally at least 24 guys should be in the roatation at
any time, with that number decreasing as guys get used up.

Yikes.

For team TTs, the pacing strategy is pretty tricky. You have to go
easier on hills (which you know) and with a tailwind (which you may
not have), or else you'll shatter your team.

A constant rotation is very hard to regulate the speed of too. The
terrain is on for the most part well graded roads, so the yo-yo effect
is pretty small and we can get a good rhythm going.

Perhaps the biggest problem is the rather wide range of fitness and
experience of the riders. The age range is 21 to 62, and the weight
range is from 55 to 98kg. I don't know the flat 10km ITT times but I
guess it ranges from 13:00 to 17:00. Should be interesting. We have
scheduled 3 stops, but we also get bottle hand-offs on some of the
hills.

The captain has never been a captain before, but he has ridden the
race with 2 well established teams several times so he knows how it
should be done. He has also 2 very good co-captains who know how this
should be done too, so even though there are a bunch of new guys, it
has the potential to go smoothly.

Right now the weather looks like rain and headwinds, temps from 9C to
15C. The headwind makes things go slower but for my own selfish needs
helps as it slows things up on the hills. Levels the playing field a
bit when the road tilts upward. I'm not too worried about getting
dropped on a hill, just in having to go too hard such that I burn up
too many calories that I won't be able to replenish and bonking
somewhere.

Joseph

On Jun 21, 9:54 pm, Joseph wrote:

The headwind makes things go slower but for my own selfish needs
helps as it slows things up on the hills. Levels the playing field a
bit when the road tilts upward.

Hills and tailwinds tend to expose and exacerbate differences in the
abilities of the riders. Headwinds and downhills tend to equalize.
Combine a hill with a tailwind, and that's bad news.

On Jun 21, 4:02 pm, wrote:
On Jun 21, 9:54 pm, Joseph wrote:

The headwind makes things go slower but for my own selfish needs
helps as it slows things up on the hills. Levels the playing field a
bit when the road tilts upward.

Hills and tailwinds tend to expose and exacerbate differences in the
abilities of the riders. Headwinds and downhills tend to equalize.
Combine a hill with a tailwind, and that's bad news.


dumbass,

changes in speed exacerbate differences.

but, can you explain why tailwinds make a race more selective ?

On Jun 21, 10:07 pm, "
wrote:
On Jun 21, 4:02 pm, wrote:

On Jun 21, 9:54 pm, Joseph wrote:

The headwind makes things go slower but for my own selfish needs
helps as it slows things up on the hills. Levels the playing field a
bit when the road tilts upward.

Hills and tailwinds tend to expose and exacerbate differences in the
abilities of the riders. Headwinds and downhills tend to equalize.
Combine a hill with a tailwind, and that's bad news.

dumbass,

changes in speed exacerbate differences.

but, can you explain why tailwinds make a race more selective ?

Tailwinds lessen the advantage of drafting as the components of
resistance change their relative importance. This means weaker riders
who otherwise might have been able to suck wheel, get dropped on the
flats. Tailwinds up hills hurt the weaker riders because they are
weaker on hills because of their lower power to weight ratio. As the
speed goes up due to the tailwind, their deficiencies become more
apparent as the rate of vertical ascent increases.

Joseph