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Fun with exponents



 
 
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  #11  
Old May 23rd 20, 04:05 PM posted to rec.bicycles.tech
Tosspot[_3_]
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Posts: 1,484
Default Fun with exponents

On 23/05/2020 14.27, AMuzi wrote:
On 5/23/2020 12:14 AM, John B. wrote:
On Fri, 22 May 2020 22:09:06 -0500, AMuzi wrote:

On 5/22/2020 9:04 PM, John B. wrote:
On Fri, 22 May 2020 10:28:02 -0500, AMuzi wrote:

In today's news:

https://cyclingindustry.news/third-o...ds-cycling-uk/


Which could happen, But it won't.

Similarly, Wharton yesterday projected a quarter million US
Wuhan Virus deaths. Which also could happen, unlikely though
that may be.

Well, by tomorrow you'll probably be at the 100,000+ mark :-(


Peruse Dr Farr's work and get back to us on that.


I just keep score and as of May 22, 2020, 22:18 GMT y'all were at
97,562, and the "new cases" on that date was +22,407 so unless the new
case rate drops a remarkable amount tomorrow y'all will have over
100,000 deaths, since 29 February.

At the rate you are going you could easily hit 250,000 by next week.
(250,000-97562=152438/22,407=6.8)



Trees grow but trees do not grow to heaven.


True, because alas you can't be killing Americans forever, but you can
get to a quarter of a million without breaking a swat. Or indeed, a
small deciduous .
Ads
  #12  
Old May 23rd 20, 07:38 PM posted to rec.bicycles.tech
Jeff Liebermann
external usenet poster
 
Posts: 3,336
Default Fun with exponents

On Fri, 22 May 2020 15:49:44 -0700 (PDT), Andre Jute
wrote:

On Friday, May 22, 2020 at 7:25:30 PM UTC+1, Jeff Liebermann wrote:

I'm a leading exponent of number juggling. Exponents and high order
polynomial trend lines are very useful for distorting information and
trends. Yep, exponents are fun.


When the numbers are really, really against what I have
already decided we should do, I reach for the log-log paper.


Around here, log-log paper is so common that it grows on trees.
http://www.learnbydestroying.com/jeffl/pics/home/Firewood-2019.jpg
If I want the fire to grow exponentially quick, I start my wood burner
with log-log paper.

[common sense snipped as being misplaced]


It's not as common as one might hope.

Andre Jute
"Reality is what I say it is," said the rabbit before popping back into the top hat.


What one rabbit says, is of little import. However, when the media
discovers this one rabbits view of reality, interprets the words to
comply with their agenda, and summarizes the result to make it
suitable for general consumption, it soon becomes the new reality,
even if it is distorted, misinterpreted, or wrong.

Reality belongs to the highest bidder.

--
Jeff Liebermann
150 Felker St #D
http://www.LearnByDestroying.com
Santa Cruz CA 95060 http://802.11junk.com
Skype: JeffLiebermann AE6KS 831-336-2558
  #13  
Old May 23rd 20, 11:14 PM posted to rec.bicycles.tech
pH
external usenet poster
 
Posts: 77
Default Fun with exponents

On Friday, May 22, 2020 at 3:01:55 PM UTC-7, cyom wrote:
On Friday, May 22, 2020 at 11:25:30 AM UTC-7, Jeff Liebermann wrote:
On Fri, 22 May 2020 10:28:02 -0500, AMuzi wrote:

In today's news:
https://cyclingindustry.news/third-o...ds-cycling-uk/
Which could happen, But it won't.


I'm a leading exponent of number juggling. Exponents and high order
polynomial trend lines are very useful for distorting information and
trends. Yep, exponents are fun.

I suspect we could do better determining if bicycles will triumph over
automobiles by tossing a coin. Some random considerations:

1. Car pools are probably going to be very unpopular due to the
difficulty maintaining 2 meter distancing. After Covid-19, it will
probably be one person per car, no passengers, no buses, no trains, no
van pools, etc. Taxis and Uber might survive if a partition were
installed between the driver and passenger, but sanitizing the
passenger area will be difficult.

2. Bicycles are currently functional because of the lack of
automobile traffic. If the traffic returns when the lock down ends,
bicycles will again be considered a risky proposition become less
attractive for commuting. This might be balanced by a dramatic
reduction in the number of workers that need to commute. Difficult to
tell a this point. If the US state of Georgia is any indication, most
of the jobs lost are not going to return immediately making commuting
more of a long term problem than an immediate crisis.

3. An increase in bicycle usage requires better end point facilities
and infrastructure, such as storage lockers, traffic management,
dedicated lanes, signage, etc. I don't see that happening as all the
aforementioned are controversial.

4. The world has gotten a taste of working at home. At least the
"knowledge workers" have had the experience. From what little I've
seen, working via Teamviewr, AnyDesk, GoToMyPC, etc remote desktop
applications and meeting via Zoom, Webex, Skype, BlueJeans, etc will
probably reduce the need to commute.

5. Lots of other factors might sway bicycle commuting in either
direction. From my warped perspective, the key is the unemployment
levels and the loaded overhead cost of having employees. Unemployment
rates have been seriously distorted by various government for
political reasons. Loaded overhead per employee is going to skyrocket
because of the added costs of providing a safe workplace and the
inevitable rise in medical and insurance expenses. The temptation
will be to outsource as much as possible and transfer the problem and
expense elsewhere.

Similarly, Wharton yesterday projected a quarter million US
Wuhan Virus deaths. Which also could happen, unlikely though
that may be.


"Coronavirus (COVID-19) Mortality Rate"
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/
See the bottom of the page for how the mortality rate is calculated.
Feel free to adjust the assumptions, guesses, and standards based upon
your level of optimism, political views, creative arithmetic, and
level of trust in the sources involved.


--


If you have the idea that people are going to stop shaking hands, hugging and kissing, you being far more effected by the propaganda that anyone would think



In the last few weeks I've run across two old co-workers at a local supermarket (Trader Joe's).

In both cases, each backed away with fear in his eyes as I approached to shake hands.
These were both Health Dept. employees who should know better.

One evenually and reluctantly offered to tap elbows, which I declined. The other would not approach.

There was an article in the San Jose Mercury On May 20 or 21, I think, section B pg 1 and continued on p. 3.
It was a Stanford study wherein they concluded that the mortatility rate of the current thingie going around is roughly eqivalent to the flu. 0.04-0.4% if I recall rightly. I was surprised that
this did not show up more in the news, but passed w/o any comment.

I was up at my Mom's in Napa last weekend. My cousin came in and--visibly nervous--would not hug anyone. We are all healthy. I could tell she was unhappy just being there w/ us.

My daughter, the paramedic says that while she thinks Caronavirus is a real thing it does not seem to be much of an issue.

In the meatime, I just discovered that my colon tests positive for E. coli!! Oh no! Should I be concerned?
What does "testing positive mean?

I have been dismayed at how easy it has been to instill fear in the general public and now understand how it was possible to ship Japanese American citizens to camps in WWII.

Bicycle contend:helmet. mavic receivershiop. double-butted spokes

pH in Aptos

  #14  
Old May 24th 20, 12:17 AM posted to rec.bicycles.tech
Jeff Liebermann
external usenet poster
 
Posts: 3,336
Default Fun with exponents

On Sat, 23 May 2020 15:14:55 -0700 (PDT), pH wrote:

In the last few weeks I've run across two old co-workers at a local supermarket (Trader Joe's).
In both cases, each backed away with fear in his eyes as I approached to shake hands.
These were both Health Dept. employees who should know better.
One evenually and reluctantly offered to tap elbows, which I declined. The other would not approach.


That's because you weren't wearing a "Covid Suit":
https://www.hazmatnation.com/this-covid-19-suit-protects-you-inside-a-bubble/
At least it's somewhat aerodynamic.

There was an article in the San Jose Mercury On May 20 or 21, I think, section B pg 1 and continued on p. 3.
It was a Stanford study wherein they concluded that the mortatility rate
of the current thingie going around is roughly eqivalent to the flu.
0.04-0.4% if I recall rightly. I was surprised that
this did not show up more in the news, but passed w/o any comment.


It's somewhat higher depending on your political affiliation:
"Coronavirus (COVID-19) Mortality Rate"
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/
My guess(tm) of the world average best guess(tm) is about 2% mortality
rate. However, don't worry too much. Since medical errors are
allegedly the third greatest cause of death in the US, you'll be in
good hands:
"Are medical errors really the third most common cause of death
in the U.S.? (2019 edition)"
https://sciencebasedmedicine.org/are-medical-errors-really-the-third-most-common-cause-of-death-in-the-u-s-2019-edition/

My daughter, the paramedic says that while she thinks Caronavirus
is a real thing it does not seem to be much of an issue.


As long as we are still officially in lockdown and house arrest,
propagation of the virus will be mostly by the arrogant, sloppy, or
stupid. Actually that might be beneficial if you're a believer (and
practitioner) of eugenics. However, as soon as commuting, shopping,
meetings, and other activities that require direct human interaction,
things are likely to get much worse.

In the meatime, I just discovered that my colon tests positive
for E. coli!! Oh no! Should I be concerned?


Maybe:
https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/926121
Which strain?

Incidentally, several years ago, I had various irritating, but not
serious digestive problems. I then had a series of unrelated kidney
stone operations and a colonoscopy. In all of these, it was customary
to administer a broad spectrum antibiotic (Cipro) that killed most of
the bacteria in the stomach and intestines (including E-coli). As I
went though the series of operations, the digestive problems rapidly
disappeared and haven't returned. My guess(tm) is that I had some
kind of bacterial infection. It might be a good idea to look into the
possibilities if you're having digestive issues.

What does "testing positive mean?


It means more money for the medical profession.

I have been dismayed at how easy it has been to instill fear
in the general public and now understand how it was possible
to ship Japanese American citizens to camps in WWII.


More like fear of something we know nothing about. We tend to believe
that nothing bad can happen without a culprit. When something bad
happens anyway, we go looking for the culprit. I once worked for a
company that could not solve any problem without first blaming someone
for having caused the problem. Since it didn't make any difference, I
volunteered to be the de facto culprit and recipient of the blame if
it would help to move the committee toward working on a solution. That
worked, until they got tired of dealing with me.

Bicycle contend:helmet. mavic receivershiop. double-butted spokes


Sigh... You can do better than that.

Last chance. Home Power Magazine collection. Two bankers boxes full.
You pickup or they go to the dump.


--
Jeff Liebermann
150 Felker St #D
http://www.LearnByDestroying.com
Santa Cruz CA 95060 http://802.11junk.com
Skype: JeffLiebermann AE6KS 831-336-2558
  #15  
Old May 24th 20, 12:48 AM posted to rec.bicycles.tech
JBeattie
external usenet poster
 
Posts: 4,950
Default Fun with exponents

On Saturday, May 23, 2020 at 3:14:58 PM UTC-7, pH wrote:
On Friday, May 22, 2020 at 3:01:55 PM UTC-7, cyom wrote:
On Friday, May 22, 2020 at 11:25:30 AM UTC-7, Jeff Liebermann wrote:
On Fri, 22 May 2020 10:28:02 -0500, AMuzi wrote:

In today's news:
https://cyclingindustry.news/third-o...ds-cycling-uk/
Which could happen, But it won't.

I'm a leading exponent of number juggling. Exponents and high order
polynomial trend lines are very useful for distorting information and
trends. Yep, exponents are fun.

I suspect we could do better determining if bicycles will triumph over
automobiles by tossing a coin. Some random considerations:

1. Car pools are probably going to be very unpopular due to the
difficulty maintaining 2 meter distancing. After Covid-19, it will
probably be one person per car, no passengers, no buses, no trains, no
van pools, etc. Taxis and Uber might survive if a partition were
installed between the driver and passenger, but sanitizing the
passenger area will be difficult.

2. Bicycles are currently functional because of the lack of
automobile traffic. If the traffic returns when the lock down ends,
bicycles will again be considered a risky proposition become less
attractive for commuting. This might be balanced by a dramatic
reduction in the number of workers that need to commute. Difficult to
tell a this point. If the US state of Georgia is any indication, most
of the jobs lost are not going to return immediately making commuting
more of a long term problem than an immediate crisis.

3. An increase in bicycle usage requires better end point facilities
and infrastructure, such as storage lockers, traffic management,
dedicated lanes, signage, etc. I don't see that happening as all the
aforementioned are controversial.

4. The world has gotten a taste of working at home. At least the
"knowledge workers" have had the experience. From what little I've
seen, working via Teamviewr, AnyDesk, GoToMyPC, etc remote desktop
applications and meeting via Zoom, Webex, Skype, BlueJeans, etc will
probably reduce the need to commute.

5. Lots of other factors might sway bicycle commuting in either
direction. From my warped perspective, the key is the unemployment
levels and the loaded overhead cost of having employees. Unemployment
rates have been seriously distorted by various government for
political reasons. Loaded overhead per employee is going to skyrocket
because of the added costs of providing a safe workplace and the
inevitable rise in medical and insurance expenses. The temptation
will be to outsource as much as possible and transfer the problem and
expense elsewhere.

Similarly, Wharton yesterday projected a quarter million US
Wuhan Virus deaths. Which also could happen, unlikely though
that may be.

"Coronavirus (COVID-19) Mortality Rate"
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/
See the bottom of the page for how the mortality rate is calculated.
Feel free to adjust the assumptions, guesses, and standards based upon
your level of optimism, political views, creative arithmetic, and
level of trust in the sources involved.


--


If you have the idea that people are going to stop shaking hands, hugging and kissing, you being far more effected by the propaganda that anyone would think



In the last few weeks I've run across two old co-workers at a local supermarket (Trader Joe's).

In both cases, each backed away with fear in his eyes as I approached to shake hands.
These were both Health Dept. employees who should know better.

One evenually and reluctantly offered to tap elbows, which I declined. The other would not approach.

There was an article in the San Jose Mercury On May 20 or 21, I think, section B pg 1 and continued on p. 3.
It was a Stanford study wherein they concluded that the mortatility rate of the current thingie going around is roughly eqivalent to the flu. 0.04-0.4% if I recall rightly. I was surprised that
this did not show up more in the news, but passed w/o any comment.

I was up at my Mom's in Napa last weekend. My cousin came in and--visibly nervous--would not hug anyone. We are all healthy. I could tell she was unhappy just being there w/ us.

My daughter, the paramedic says that while she thinks Caronavirus is a real thing it does not seem to be much of an issue.

In the meatime, I just discovered that my colon tests positive for E. coli!! Oh no! Should I be concerned?
What does "testing positive mean?

I have been dismayed at how easy it has been to instill fear in the general public and now understand how it was possible to ship Japanese American citizens to camps in WWII.


The article in toto isn't that encouraging. https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/05/...ing-the-point/


During WW II we used the local livestock auction yard to corral the Japanese. https://oregonencyclopedia.org/artic.../#.XsmqQWhKgRk

This time around, we used the fairgrounds for an unnecessary field hospital.. Not saying that the government/public health response was the right one, but it isn't anything like the internment of the Japanese. Nor is it Nazi Germany, Stalinist Russia or what-have-you. It may be economic suicide or a wrong response, but it is certainly within the range of reasonable and constitutional responses -- although certain emergency orders may violate aspects of state constitutions or statutes. https://tinyurl.com/ya35omdj The Oregon SC stayed that order. But for a split second, Judge Shirtcliff freed me from the shackles of the stay-at-home order. I ran out to get a haircut. D'oh! Still closed. Out in Baker City, I probably could have gotten a discount cut from a local sheep-sheerer. Luckily my homies from Portland got to Zoom argue that motion because its a long f****** drive, and plane flights are to Pendleton or Boise, and they always break. You sit there on the runway watching tumbleweeds roll by while Gomer runs to Western Auto for a part. Welcome to Eastern Ory-Gun. https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001...56322858343994 God's social distancing.

-- Jay Beattie.
  #16  
Old May 24th 20, 01:02 AM posted to rec.bicycles.tech
[email protected]
external usenet poster
 
Posts: 720
Default Fun with exponents

On Saturday, May 23, 2020 at 3:14:58 PM UTC-7, pH wrote:
On Friday, May 22, 2020 at 3:01:55 PM UTC-7, cyom wrote:
On Friday, May 22, 2020 at 11:25:30 AM UTC-7, Jeff Liebermann wrote:
On Fri, 22 May 2020 10:28:02 -0500, AMuzi wrote:

In today's news:
https://cyclingindustry.news/third-o...ds-cycling-uk/
Which could happen, But it won't.

I'm a leading exponent of number juggling. Exponents and high order
polynomial trend lines are very useful for distorting information and
trends. Yep, exponents are fun.

I suspect we could do better determining if bicycles will triumph over
automobiles by tossing a coin. Some random considerations:

1. Car pools are probably going to be very unpopular due to the
difficulty maintaining 2 meter distancing. After Covid-19, it will
probably be one person per car, no passengers, no buses, no trains, no
van pools, etc. Taxis and Uber might survive if a partition were
installed between the driver and passenger, but sanitizing the
passenger area will be difficult.

2. Bicycles are currently functional because of the lack of
automobile traffic. If the traffic returns when the lock down ends,
bicycles will again be considered a risky proposition become less
attractive for commuting. This might be balanced by a dramatic
reduction in the number of workers that need to commute. Difficult to
tell a this point. If the US state of Georgia is any indication, most
of the jobs lost are not going to return immediately making commuting
more of a long term problem than an immediate crisis.

3. An increase in bicycle usage requires better end point facilities
and infrastructure, such as storage lockers, traffic management,
dedicated lanes, signage, etc. I don't see that happening as all the
aforementioned are controversial.

4. The world has gotten a taste of working at home. At least the
"knowledge workers" have had the experience. From what little I've
seen, working via Teamviewr, AnyDesk, GoToMyPC, etc remote desktop
applications and meeting via Zoom, Webex, Skype, BlueJeans, etc will
probably reduce the need to commute.

5. Lots of other factors might sway bicycle commuting in either
direction. From my warped perspective, the key is the unemployment
levels and the loaded overhead cost of having employees. Unemployment
rates have been seriously distorted by various government for
political reasons. Loaded overhead per employee is going to skyrocket
because of the added costs of providing a safe workplace and the
inevitable rise in medical and insurance expenses. The temptation
will be to outsource as much as possible and transfer the problem and
expense elsewhere.

Similarly, Wharton yesterday projected a quarter million US
Wuhan Virus deaths. Which also could happen, unlikely though
that may be.

"Coronavirus (COVID-19) Mortality Rate"
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/
See the bottom of the page for how the mortality rate is calculated.
Feel free to adjust the assumptions, guesses, and standards based upon
your level of optimism, political views, creative arithmetic, and
level of trust in the sources involved.


--


If you have the idea that people are going to stop shaking hands, hugging and kissing, you being far more effected by the propaganda that anyone would think



In the last few weeks I've run across two old co-workers at a local supermarket (Trader Joe's).

In both cases, each backed away with fear in his eyes as I approached to shake hands.
These were both Health Dept. employees who should know better.

One evenually and reluctantly offered to tap elbows, which I declined. The other would not approach.

There was an article in the San Jose Mercury On May 20 or 21, I think, section B pg 1 and continued on p. 3.
It was a Stanford study wherein they concluded that the mortatility rate of the current thingie going around is roughly eqivalent to the flu. 0.04-0.4% if I recall rightly. I was surprised that
this did not show up more in the news, but passed w/o any comment.

I was up at my Mom's in Napa last weekend. My cousin came in and--visibly nervous--would not hug anyone. We are all healthy. I could tell she was unhappy just being there w/ us.

My daughter, the paramedic says that while she thinks Caronavirus is a real thing it does not seem to be much of an issue.

In the meatime, I just discovered that my colon tests positive for E. coli!! Oh no! Should I be concerned?
What does "testing positive mean?

I have been dismayed at how easy it has been to instill fear in the general public and now understand how it was possible to ship Japanese American citizens to camps in WWII.

Bicycle contend:helmet. mavic receivershiop. double-butted spokes

pH in Aptos


The very real problem with studies from Stanford and such are that the CDC has the worst possible information and the state testing is absurd. Only 20% of the people being tested test positive because they are only allowing people to be tested if they have coughing and a fever. This is a particularly bad allergy season and people have been frightened out of their wits and have a reverse placebo effect in which they are convinced that they are ill..

This is an EXTREMELY biased sampling from which to select and so none of these studies are worth the paper they have been written on. Bad numbers in = bad numbers out.

Just to repeat myself - the CDC also has a department that supplies death statistics to the insurance industry. They have no political skin in the game and they are trying to supply accurate information to their target audience. Rather that 90,000+ deaths they are showing a linear progression to what will eventually be something like 20,000 across the US. That is about a third of the annual seasonal flu deaths.

You have to be careful of seasonal flu deaths because there is no requirement for them to report death victims as being seasonal flu positive and so there is something like a 300% wide estimate of the numbers of deaths from the seasonal flu.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...nchs-data.html

The most important thing is that the death rates are 95% of normal. How would this be possible if more people than normal were dying from a deadly disease?

Also observe all of the Lame Stream Media accounts of "Young man almost dies of covid-19"! the pictures in that particular article showed a man obviously a weight lifter before having wasted away quite a bit after laying in a hospital bed for two weeks. If he were on a ventilator as was suggested, he would be being fed intravenously and of COURSE he would lose a lot of weight. Also they give NO health history of this guy. For all we know he could be gay and have AIDS. That would mean that his immune system is practically ineffective.

This guy was supposedly a nurse and was around infected people. But most healthy people do not catch covid-19 even when heavily exposed. That is a unique feature of this virus. It is only dangerous to extremely ill people not expected to live the year out anyway. Seasonal flu is especially deadly to children 5 and under, pregnant women and those who have been pregnant in the last 6 months.

I will say this - most WORKING epidemiologists have totally disagreed with Fauci on every point. Either clean up the CDC or turn statistics over to Universities that are less likely to politicize their statistics.
  #17  
Old May 24th 20, 02:03 AM posted to rec.bicycles.tech
news18
external usenet poster
 
Posts: 943
Default Fun with exponents

On Sat, 23 May 2020 11:38:17 -0700, Jeff Liebermann wrote:



Around here, log-log paper is so common that it grows on trees.


FWIW, I recently discovered that our new printer, a Canon TS9565, will,
amongst other patterns, print graph paper on demand. No Log or Log paper,
now have I been able to discover how to insert it ino the pattern
templates.

It also does (music) staff paper.

Bicycle content; not riding today as BoM is recording 24 knot wind gusts.

  #18  
Old May 24th 20, 01:01 PM posted to rec.bicycles.tech
Sepp Ruf
external usenet poster
 
Posts: 363
Default Fun with exponents

AMuzi wrote:
In today's news:

https://cyclingindustry.news/third-o...ds-cycling-uk/

Which could happen, But it won't.


You missed next day's science!
https://toronto.citynews.ca/2020/05/23/leaving-hand-sanitizer-in-hot-vehicles-a-fire-risk/
Executive summary: Car drivers and passengers will all die in exploding
cars or, alternatively, due to evaporation rendering their hand sanitizers
ineffective.
  #19  
Old May 24th 20, 02:14 PM posted to rec.bicycles.tech
SMS
external usenet poster
 
Posts: 9,053
Default Fun with exponents

On 5/22/2020 11:25 AM, Jeff Liebermann wrote:

snip

1. Car pools are probably going to be very unpopular due to the
difficulty maintaining 2 meter distancing. After Covid-19, it will
probably be one person per car, no passengers, no buses, no trains, no
van pools, etc. Taxis and Uber might survive if a partition were
installed between the driver and passenger, but sanitizing the
passenger area will be difficult.


True.

2. Bicycles are currently functional because of the lack of
automobile traffic. If the traffic returns when the lock down ends,
bicycles will again be considered a risky proposition become less
attractive for commuting. This might be balanced by a dramatic
reduction in the number of workers that need to commute. Difficult to
tell a this point. If the US state of Georgia is any indication, most
of the jobs lost are not going to return immediately making commuting
more of a long term problem than an immediate crisis.


The number of workers that will be able to work in the office is going
to be dramatically reduced, at least in this area.

For decades, companies have been "compacting" their workers. It used to
be that you allowed 350 square feet of office space per worker (this
included everything in a building). So a 100,000 square food building
would hold 285 employees. Now it's down to 100 square feet so you're at
1000 employees in that same 100,000 square foot building.

The tech companies are already announcing that workers can work from
home "forever" and only come into the office when necessary. The
companies that were certain that unless they could see the worker at all
times have realized how to "manage by results" or "manage by monitoring."

Also, now there is much less of a reason to live in an absurdly
expensive area just to be close to work.

3. An increase in bicycle usage requires better end point facilities
and infrastructure, such as storage lockers, traffic management,
dedicated lanes, signage, etc. I don't see that happening as all the
aforementioned are controversial.


Maybe not in Santa Cruz, but definitely happening in Silicon Valley.
Secure parking, showers, bicycle infrastructure, etc..

4. The world has gotten a taste of working at home. At least the
"knowledge workers" have had the experience. From what little I've
seen, working via Teamviewr, AnyDesk, GoToMyPC, etc remote desktop
applications and meeting via Zoom, Webex, Skype, BlueJeans, etc will
probably reduce the need to commute.


Ah, Zoom. Loved it at first, now it's becoming as annoying at 350 slide
Powerpoint presentations. On Friday I had three Zoom meetings, and could
have had more but skipped some. My normal commute is about 1000 feet,
but I had to go to a lot of meetings around the Bay Area, including in
Santa Cruz and San Francisco.

5. Lots of other factors might sway bicycle commuting in either
direction. From my warped perspective, the key is the unemployment
levels and the loaded overhead cost of having employees. Unemployment
rates have been seriously distorted by various government for
political reasons. Loaded overhead per employee is going to skyrocket
because of the added costs of providing a safe workplace and the
inevitable rise in medical and insurance expenses. The temptation
will be to outsource as much as possible and transfer the problem and
expense elsewhere.


You missed one other factor that could change things. Electric bicycle
prices have come down significantly. You can buy a decent mid-drive
electric bicycle for $1500
https://electricbikereview.com/forums/threads/buzz-e-bike-review-the-most-affordable-mid-drive-electric-bike-on-the-market.32715/,
and a decent rear-wheel-drive electric bicycle for $1000. A 10 mile
commute that few people would do on a regular bicycle is now more
tolerable. The adoption of electric bicycles has been slow in the U.S.,
but with the prices in free-fall, that could change.

  #20  
Old May 24th 20, 04:36 PM posted to rec.bicycles.tech
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On Saturday, May 23, 2020 at 4:17:01 PM UTC-7, Jeff Liebermann wrote:
On Sat, 23 May 2020 15:14:55 -0700 (PDT), pH wrote:

In the last few weeks I've run across two old co-workers at a local supermarket (Trader Joe's).
In both cases, each backed away with fear in his eyes as I approached to shake hands.
These were both Health Dept. employees who should know better.
One evenually and reluctantly offered to tap elbows, which I declined. The other would not approach.


That's because you weren't wearing a "Covid Suit":
https://www.hazmatnation.com/this-covid-19-suit-protects-you-inside-a-bubble/
At least it's somewhat aerodynamic.

There was an article in the San Jose Mercury On May 20 or 21, I think, section B pg 1 and continued on p. 3.
It was a Stanford study wherein they concluded that the mortatility rate
of the current thingie going around is roughly eqivalent to the flu.
0.04-0.4% if I recall rightly. I was surprised that
this did not show up more in the news, but passed w/o any comment.


It's somewhat higher depending on your political affiliation:
"Coronavirus (COVID-19) Mortality Rate"
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/
My guess(tm) of the world average best guess(tm) is about 2% mortality
rate. However, don't worry too much. Since medical errors are
allegedly the third greatest cause of death in the US, you'll be in
good hands:
"Are medical errors really the third most common cause of death
in the U.S.? (2019 edition)"
https://sciencebasedmedicine.org/are-medical-errors-really-the-third-most-common-cause-of-death-in-the-u-s-2019-edition/

My daughter, the paramedic says that while she thinks Caronavirus
is a real thing it does not seem to be much of an issue.


As long as we are still officially in lockdown and house arrest,
propagation of the virus will be mostly by the arrogant, sloppy, or
stupid. Actually that might be beneficial if you're a believer (and
practitioner) of eugenics. However, as soon as commuting, shopping,
meetings, and other activities that require direct human interaction,
things are likely to get much worse.

In the meatime, I just discovered that my colon tests positive
for E. coli!! Oh no! Should I be concerned?


Maybe:
https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/926121
Which strain?

Incidentally, several years ago, I had various irritating, but not
serious digestive problems. I then had a series of unrelated kidney
stone operations and a colonoscopy. In all of these, it was customary
to administer a broad spectrum antibiotic (Cipro) that killed most of
the bacteria in the stomach and intestines (including E-coli). As I
went though the series of operations, the digestive problems rapidly
disappeared and haven't returned. My guess(tm) is that I had some
kind of bacterial infection. It might be a good idea to look into the
possibilities if you're having digestive issues.

What does "testing positive mean?


It means more money for the medical profession.

I have been dismayed at how easy it has been to instill fear
in the general public and now understand how it was possible
to ship Japanese American citizens to camps in WWII.


More like fear of something we know nothing about. We tend to believe
that nothing bad can happen without a culprit. When something bad
happens anyway, we go looking for the culprit. I once worked for a
company that could not solve any problem without first blaming someone
for having caused the problem. Since it didn't make any difference, I
volunteered to be the de facto culprit and recipient of the blame if
it would help to move the committee toward working on a solution. That
worked, until they got tired of dealing with me.

Bicycle contend:helmet. mavic receivershiop. double-butted spokes


Sigh... You can do better than that.

Last chance. Home Power Magazine collection. Two bankers boxes full.
You pickup or they go to the dump.


--
Jeff Liebermann
150 Felker St #D
http://www.LearnByDestroying.com
Santa Cruz CA 95060 http://802.11junk.com
Skype: JeffLiebermann AE6KS 831-336-2558


I will offer you proof positive that the covid-19 pandemic is a hoax. The total death rate in the USA is 95% of normal. If we are having all these additional deaths from this great disease where are they? You can argue that we are having fewer vehicular deaths though that is perhaps questionable. But we also are having a much higher suicide rate which more than offsets any savings from vehicular deaths. People who are losing all hope of being able to keep a roof over the heads of their family and food on the table are giving up and seeing live for themselves as useless.

There are fewer deaths in hospitals because a large number of elective surgeries end in deaths. Which isn't to say that not getting elective surgeries aren't ending also on death. Cancer surgeries for instance normally would end in death though perhaps at a more distant date.
 




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