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  #21  
Old October 28th 20, 04:19 PM posted to rec.bicycles.tech
Tom Kunich[_2_]
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On Tuesday, October 27, 2020 at 7:22:30 PM UTC-7, sms wrote:
On 10/27/2020 7:04 AM, jbeattie wrote:

snip
The exodus of renters from the Bay Area is driving down rents. But
for-sale housing is still doing very well, and a lot of those former
renters are buying houses in outlying areas because they are able to
work remotely and many companies have said that they can continue to do
so even after the pandemic is over. It's a big saving in commercial
office space rent as well. The MTC (Metropolitan Transportation
Commission) for the Bay Area counties recently said that they want to
require 60% remote-working. This caused the mayors of San Francisco and
San Jose to go non-linear
https://www.nbcbayarea.com/news/local/mayors-of-sf-sj-push-back-on-parts-of-bay-area-climate-plan/2380797/.


Probably pushed by Blackstone or CBRE Group. I'd be pretty worried if I were in commercial office real estate in SF. One of my riding buddies is the CFO of a San Francisco based consumer product company that just walked away from a lease of very expensive space downtown because management learned that everyone could work from home. One of my insurance company clients is closing two business-park office buildings at different locations in California. It just calculated the rent penalty, paid and walked from five or ten year leases. Retail is suffering because of shut-downs, but it will come back -- one hopes. Office space is going to get cheaper. We have a full floor of an office tower and don't need it now, but we're locked in and the new owners aren't interested in negotiating -- which doesn't make sense since they're flipping the building and should want to avoid vacancies. https://www.wellsfargocenterportland.com/

Exactly.

The changes brought on by Covid-19 are not going to be temporary, they
are going to result in long-term changes to the way we live, work, play,
shop, and travel.

When someone says, “I can’t wait until Covid-19 is over and we can all
go back to exactly the way things were before,” they are not
understanding that there is going to be a new normal and things are not
going to return to the way things were.

The long-term effects of Covid-19 on housing, commercial office, and
transportation are something that commercial real estate owners, rental
apartment complex owners, public transit agencies, and YIMBYs are in
denial about, but they can't control market forces to the extent that
they'd like to believe.

It's amazing to listen to some clueless politicians who believe that
people want to rent apartments in tall apartment buildings forever and
take a public bus to work.

But the reality is the following:

1. Families, especially families with children, prefer to not live in
high-density housing, they like the suburbs and they'll endure long
commutes to own a home.
2. People don't really want to live right next to where they work.
3. People are unlikely to ride a public bus to work, it's too slow and
too inconvenient not to mention the health risks.
4. Remote-working is not going away.
5. Personal mobility is the future, whether it's electric cars, electric
bicycles, or on-demand driver-less shuttles.

Long term, the banks will have to foreclose on a lot of newer commercial
real estate and sell it at a loss to new owners who will be able to rent
at lower rates. Apartment complexes, other than new ones, are in better
shape since even with lower rents they will still be profitable.

Even before Covid-19, rents were falling and there was a glut of
unaffordable market-rate rental housing and developers were refusing to
build projects that were already approved by cities.

We were literally begging one huge developer to construct their approved
project but they said that they were not moving forward due to the
housing glut, labor costs, material costs, mitigation fees (which
legally cannot be set higher than the costs incurred by a city), the
cost of community benefits, inclusionary affordable housing
requirements, etc.. But even when we offered to look at helping them
with what we could, they said that it would still not cause them to
start construction.

If you try to force your way of thinking on others you are going to spend an appreciable amount of the rest of your life in prison. But that's OK with me. You can tell us about your rides while behind bars.
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  #22  
Old October 28th 20, 04:23 PM posted to rec.bicycles.tech
Tom Kunich[_2_]
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On Wednesday, October 28, 2020 at 8:08:22 AM UTC-7, Sepp Ruf wrote:
AMuzi wrote:
On 10/28/2020 5:31 AM, Rolf Mantel wrote:


"you can only live happily in the
burbs when your bigot neighbors accept you as equal."


??? have you ever visited my country? That's absolutely untrue.

Thanks for noting. Maybe Rolf got his impression from reading too many
Guardian and Spiegel fabrications about the evil, Trump-voting suburbs?

Precisely. From the Fake News Media you couldn't possibly know anything that is going on in the US. Even Fox doesn't cover much of the story. But the people on the ground do. This year California has had a net loss of over 150,000 jobs and businesses as they moved away from an almost 14% sales taxes, an attempt to completely counter the Prop 13 property tax limitations and a property tax that is makes it very difficult too own a home after retirement. They are literally driving people out of California and aren't smart enough to actually know they are doing so.
  #23  
Old October 28th 20, 08:38 PM posted to rec.bicycles.tech
SMS
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On 10/28/2020 3:31 AM, Rolf Mantel wrote:
Am 28.10.2020 um 03:22 schrieb sms:

The long-term effects of Covid-19 on housing, commercial office, and
transportation are something that commercial real estate owners,
rental apartment complex owners, public transit agencies, and YIMBYs
are in denial about, but they can't control market forces to the
extent that they'd like to believe.


Agreed.

But the reality is the following:

1. Families, especially families with children, prefer to not live in
high-density housing, they like the suburbs and they'll endure long
commutes to own a home.


Make that "half the families".* "Freaksih" famlies (rainbow families,
nerd famlies, mixed-race families) will continue to prefer the cities
becaue you can only live happily in the burbs when your bigot neighbors
accept you as equal.* In the city you can ignore your neighbors and
socialize with other freaks like yourself.


Wow. Talk about being clueless about the United States!
  #24  
Old October 28th 20, 09:35 PM posted to rec.bicycles.tech
AMuzi
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On 10/28/2020 2:38 PM, sms wrote:
On 10/28/2020 3:31 AM, Rolf Mantel wrote:
Am 28.10.2020 um 03:22 schrieb sms:

The long-term effects of Covid-19 on housing, commercial
office, and transportation are something that commercial
real estate owners, rental apartment complex owners,
public transit agencies, and YIMBYs are in denial about,
but they can't control market forces to the extent that
they'd like to believe.


Agreed.

But the reality is the following:

1. Families, especially families with children, prefer to
not live in high-density housing, they like the suburbs
and they'll endure long commutes to own a home.


Make that "half the families". "Freaksih" famlies
(rainbow families, nerd famlies, mixed-race families) will
continue to prefer the cities becaue you can only live
happily in the burbs when your bigot neighbors accept you
as equal. In the city you can ignore your neighbors and
socialize with other freaks like yourself.


Wow. Talk about being clueless about the United States!


+1
We're having one of those RBT kumbaya moments when both Mr
Scharf and I agree on something so large.


--
Andrew Muzi
www.yellowjersey.org/
Open every day since 1 April, 1971


  #25  
Old October 28th 20, 10:18 PM posted to rec.bicycles.tech
Tom Kunich[_2_]
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Posts: 1,320
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On Wednesday, October 28, 2020 at 1:35:53 PM UTC-7, AMuzi wrote:
On 10/28/2020 2:38 PM, sms wrote:
On 10/28/2020 3:31 AM, Rolf Mantel wrote:
Am 28.10.2020 um 03:22 schrieb sms:

The long-term effects of Covid-19 on housing, commercial
office, and transportation are something that commercial
real estate owners, rental apartment complex owners,
public transit agencies, and YIMBYs are in denial about,
but they can't control market forces to the extent that
they'd like to believe.

Agreed.

But the reality is the following:

1. Families, especially families with children, prefer to
not live in high-density housing, they like the suburbs
and they'll endure long commutes to own a home.

Make that "half the families". "Freaksih" famlies
(rainbow families, nerd famlies, mixed-race families) will
continue to prefer the cities becaue you can only live
happily in the burbs when your bigot neighbors accept you
as equal. In the city you can ignore your neighbors and
socialize with other freaks like yourself.


Wow. Talk about being clueless about the United States!

+1
We're having one of those RBT kumbaya moments when both Mr
Scharf and I agree on something so large.


Actually I agree with Mr. Scharf and i agree about quite a bit. Though usually not about any social interactions.
  #26  
Old October 28th 20, 11:25 PM posted to rec.bicycles.tech
John B.[_3_]
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On Wed, 28 Oct 2020 15:45:06 +0100, Rolf Mantel
wrote:

Am 28.10.2020 um 14:38 schrieb AMuzi:
On 10/28/2020 5:31 AM, Rolf Mantel wrote:


"you can only live happily in the
burbs when your bigot neighbors accept you as equal."


??? have you ever visited my country?* That's absolutely untrue.


If you only speak for Wisconsin, no but I guess Wisconsin is not that
much different from Minnesota.

I know suburbia very well in Germany, in the UK and in Minnesota.
I have suffered bigot neighbors in Germny in my youth.
My then girl-friend had suffered bigot neighbors in UK during her childhood.
I have seen in 1995 how non-"normal" people were treated both in
downtown Minneapolis (positively) and in the burbs 20 miles out (not
so). I was happily living downtown myself.
I saw what happened to a friend when he moved out of the city into
suburbia with his black wife in 2005.


I can't comment on Europe but I've been a foreigner and initially
viewed with disdain by the neighbors for most of my life and have
lived successfully in Japan, Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia and
Singapore. In some cases my "female companion" was a native of the
country in which I was living and sometimes she, also, was a
foreigner.
--
Cheers,

John B.

  #27  
Old October 29th 20, 12:31 AM posted to rec.bicycles.tech
Andre Jute[_2_]
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Posts: 10,154
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On Wednesday, October 28, 2020 at 8:35:53 PM UTC, AMuzi wrote:
On 10/28/2020 2:38 PM, sms wrote:
On 10/28/2020 3:31 AM, Rolf Mantel wrote:
Am 28.10.2020 um 03:22 schrieb sms:

The long-term effects of Covid-19 on housing, commercial
office, and transportation are something that commercial
real estate owners, rental apartment complex owners,
public transit agencies, and YIMBYs are in denial about,
but they can't control market forces to the extent that
they'd like to believe.

Agreed.

But the reality is the following:

1. Families, especially families with children, prefer to
not live in high-density housing, they like the suburbs
and they'll endure long commutes to own a home.

Make that "half the families". "Freaksih" famlies
(rainbow families, nerd famlies, mixed-race families) will
continue to prefer the cities becaue you can only live
happily in the burbs when your bigot neighbors accept you
as equal. In the city you can ignore your neighbors and
socialize with other freaks like yourself.


Wow. Talk about being clueless about the United States!

+1
We're having one of those RBT kumbaya moments when both Mr
Scharf and I agree on something so large.


+2

I wrote a post outlining the economics of a burst housing bubble, but Scharfie had already said it well and all I wanted to add that was strictly new is the such a crash can easily, from experience here, take a decade to recover from.

Andre Jute
Concisely
  #28  
Old October 29th 20, 12:58 AM posted to rec.bicycles.tech
news18
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Posts: 1,144
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On Wed, 28 Oct 2020 15:45:06 +0100, Rolf Mantel wrote:

Am 28.10.2020 um 14:38 schrieb AMuzi:
On 10/28/2020 5:31 AM, Rolf Mantel wrote:


"you can only live happily in the burbs when your bigot neighbors
accept you as equal."


??? have you ever visited my country?* That's absolutely untrue.


If you only speak for Wisconsin, no but I guess Wisconsin is not that
much different from Minnesota.

I know suburbia very well in Germany, in the UK and in Minnesota.
I have suffered bigot neighbors in Germny in my youth.
My then girl-friend had suffered bigot neighbors in UK during her
childhood.
I have seen in 1995 how non-"normal" people were treated both in
downtown Minneapolis (positively) and in the burbs 20 miles out (not
so). I was happily living downtown myself.
I saw what happened to a friend when he moved out of the city into
suburbia with his black wife in 2005.


Pretty much the same in Australia. The benefit of metropolitan living is
the increased number of "like people" you can interact with. They are
spread a bit thin in the burbs. Culture in this little suburban area is
getting ****ed and strictly the "approved" forms. Sigh.

  #29  
Old October 29th 20, 01:00 AM posted to rec.bicycles.tech
news18
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Posts: 1,144
Default E-Bikes

On Wed, 28 Oct 2020 08:17:13 -0700, Tom Kunich wrote:

On Wednesday, October 28, 2020 at 7:45:10 AM UTC-7, Rolf Mantel wrote:
Am 28.10.2020 um 14:38 schrieb AMuzi:
On 10/28/2020 5:31 AM, Rolf Mantel wrote:


"you can only live happily in the burbs when your bigot neighbors
accept you as equal."

??? have you ever visited my country? That's absolutely untrue.

If you only speak for Wisconsin, no but I guess Wisconsin is not that
much different from Minnesota.

I know suburbia very well in Germany, in the UK and in Minnesota.
I have suffered bigot neighbors in Germny in my youth.
My then girl-friend had suffered bigot neighbors in UK during her
childhood.
I have seen in 1995 how non-"normal" people were treated both in
downtown Minneapolis (positively) and in the burbs 20 miles out (not
so). I was happily living downtown myself.
I saw what happened to a friend when he moved out of the city into
suburbia with his black wife in 2005.

The idea that if you aren't a communist you are a bigot seems to run
very strongly in the younger generation. This is what has been taught in
schools now for over 20 years and children just lap it up. They want
everything given to them and have no desire to work for it.


TI Oh it is worse as this cultural infection spills out of the schools
and affects all the older people in their neighbourhood /tic

  #30  
Old October 29th 20, 03:54 PM posted to rec.bicycles.tech
Tom Kunich[_2_]
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Posts: 1,320
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On Wednesday, October 28, 2020 at 5:00:40 PM UTC-7, news18 wrote:
On Wed, 28 Oct 2020 08:17:13 -0700, Tom Kunich wrote:

On Wednesday, October 28, 2020 at 7:45:10 AM UTC-7, Rolf Mantel wrote:
Am 28.10.2020 um 14:38 schrieb AMuzi:
On 10/28/2020 5:31 AM, Rolf Mantel wrote:

"you can only live happily in the burbs when your bigot neighbors
accept you as equal."

??? have you ever visited my country? That's absolutely untrue.
If you only speak for Wisconsin, no but I guess Wisconsin is not that
much different from Minnesota.

I know suburbia very well in Germany, in the UK and in Minnesota.
I have suffered bigot neighbors in Germny in my youth.
My then girl-friend had suffered bigot neighbors in UK during her
childhood.
I have seen in 1995 how non-"normal" people were treated both in
downtown Minneapolis (positively) and in the burbs 20 miles out (not
so). I was happily living downtown myself.
I saw what happened to a friend when he moved out of the city into
suburbia with his black wife in 2005.

The idea that if you aren't a communist you are a bigot seems to run
very strongly in the younger generation. This is what has been taught in
schools now for over 20 years and children just lap it up. They want
everything given to them and have no desire to work for it.

TI Oh it is worse as this cultural infection spills out of the schools
and affects all the older people in their neighbourhood /tic

Several programs are appearing on campuses all over the US now that are showing college students the lies they are being told, Once they have it explained to them that the Democrats intend to take their earnings to pay the tuition of other people they rebel at the idea. At least those who are paying their own way. Those whose parents are paying their bills couldn't care less. There is a message in that.
 




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