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#21
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Build it and ... why aren't they coming?
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#22
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Build it and ... why aren't they coming?
Frank Krygowski wrote:
On 1/3/2019 6:24 AM, Roger Merriman wrote: Frank Krygowski wrote: https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...ms/2319972002/ - Frank Krygowski How well connected are they? My commute to work has some fairly old and narrow cycle paths built alongside the by pass, most of the time I don’t see another cyclist as for most part. It makes sense for me but very few others. How well connected are they? Given that we're discussing locations spanning the country, I'd say some are well connected and some are not, just as they have been for many years. To me, the significant point is this: For years, organizations who promote segregated facilities have trumpeted increases in bike mode share wherever they've been able to find them; and they've said "See? The increase was because of the bike lanes!" and/or "We'll see even more increases if we build more bike lanes..." ... or cycle tracks, or linear parks, or whatever. That propaganda ignored many, many places that built new bike lanes and saw no increases in bike use. That also ignored places like San Francisco that saw very large increases in bike use without building any new bike facilities. http://www.sfweekly.com/news/ironica...ycling-in-s-f/ I think there's much more to it. Bike mode share is governed by many factors, and segregated facilities are usually only a small contributor. Gas prices probably make a difference. Weather makes a difference. The general economy makes a difference. Traffic congestion, if extreme (think NYC) can make a difference. But I think fashion makes the biggest difference of all. If it becomes trendy to bike, more people will bike because it's trendy. I think bike lanes, etc. can bump that a bit, but not because they make bicycling safer or more practical. They simply function as a sort of advertisement for bicycling. When they're new, some people will for the first time in a long time think "Hmm. Bicycling." Then they may see a few people riding in a bike lane and think "Hmm. I could do that." Repeat often enough and they may try it, and numbers go up. But most will not love it. They'll say "I got all sweaty" or "I got a flat tire" or just "It's easier in the car." And trendiness is short lived. When the "new and cool" wears off, people just fall back into their normal habits. The people whose jobs depend on new bike facilities - everyone at the League of American Bicyclists, at People for Bikes (nee Bikes Belong), at Toole Design Group etc. - will either ignore the drops in bike mode share, or (more likely) say "See? We need MORE bike lanes!" But those of us who love to ride will ride. Those who have no alternative will ride. Those who are sucked in by trends will move on to the next trend. Maybe ear tattoos? It most definitely has in places increased in number but also in type, ie not just the road warrior. For example get kids and what not, on the London Embankment which was only really good for road warriors before, arguably less good for them now, as it’s busier and less room to move etc. Equally there are places with places with bike lanes that are desperately under used, my commute for example, some may be how well it connects to places, my commute is a by pass which is fine for me, others it doesn’t make sense. And yes there are routes that have had a bit of paint slapped on the road, where the increased numbers was arriving anyway. Roger Merriman |
#24
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Build it and ... why aren't they coming?
" writes:
On Thursday, January 3, 2019 at 2:21:29 PM UTC-6, Frank Krygowski wrote: On 1/3/2019 2:09 PM, wrote: On Thursday, January 3, 2019 at 9:10:57 AM UTC-6, jbeattie wrote: I couldn't imagine living in the Mid West or some place where there was snow on the ground for long periods of time and below zero F on a regular basis. I'd move to Phoenix. -- Jay Beattie. Due to Global Warming, the Midwest has not had a real winter in more than a decade. In Des Moines today, right in the middle of the Midwest, its 36 degrees and Zero snow. Going to be in the 40s or 50s highs for the next week. In early January??? It does snow two or three times each winter. An inch or two that sticks around for less than a week. But the roads are cleared in a few hours and easily rideable with studded tires. You only need studs for a few days of the year. Rest of the time rubber works perfectly. If it wasn't dark for 16 hours a day, you would never even know it was winter in the Midwest. It varies. It's been warm in Ohio this winter, but examining weather records, of the top 10 snowiest Januaries, six of them occurred since 2000. Likewise, seven of the 10 snowiest Februaries. Records at that location have been kept since at least 1931 (maybe longer) so that's nine decades. Those results are statistically odd. -- - Frank Krygowski Snow does not mean cold. Its snowed where I live when its 33-34-35 degrees. But 33-34-35 degrees is WARM for January and February. So its very easy to have global warming and lots of snow. I suspect all the extra warmth in the air causes the water in oceans and lakes to heat up and evaporate into the air. And then once the water is in the air, it has to fall out of the air by either rain or snow. And it seems we have two or three hurricanes every year too. More evidence of global warming. On the other hand, 2018 saw the fewest (total) deaths from tornadoes in the US since 1875. https://weather.com/storms/tornado/n...est-since-1875 Italy seems to have had an unusual number, however. Must be global warming. -- |
#25
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Build it and ... why aren't they coming?
On 1/3/2019 6:52 PM, Radey Shouman wrote:
" writes: On Thursday, January 3, 2019 at 2:21:29 PM UTC-6, Frank Krygowski wrote: On 1/3/2019 2:09 PM, wrote: On Thursday, January 3, 2019 at 9:10:57 AM UTC-6, jbeattie wrote: I couldn't imagine living in the Mid West or some place where there was snow on the ground for long periods of time and below zero F on a regular basis. I'd move to Phoenix. -- Jay Beattie. Due to Global Warming, the Midwest has not had a real winter in more than a decade. In Des Moines today, right in the middle of the Midwest, its 36 degrees and Zero snow. Going to be in the 40s or 50s highs for the next week. In early January??? It does snow two or three times each winter. An inch or two that sticks around for less than a week. But the roads are cleared in a few hours and easily rideable with studded tires. You only need studs for a few days of the year. Rest of the time rubber works perfectly. If it wasn't dark for 16 hours a day, you would never even know it was winter in the Midwest. It varies. It's been warm in Ohio this winter, but examining weather records, of the top 10 snowiest Januaries, six of them occurred since 2000. Likewise, seven of the 10 snowiest Februaries. Records at that location have been kept since at least 1931 (maybe longer) so that's nine decades. Those results are statistically odd. -- - Frank Krygowski Snow does not mean cold. Its snowed where I live when its 33-34-35 degrees. But 33-34-35 degrees is WARM for January and February. So its very easy to have global warming and lots of snow. I suspect all the extra warmth in the air causes the water in oceans and lakes to heat up and evaporate into the air. And then once the water is in the air, it has to fall out of the air by either rain or snow. And it seems we have two or three hurricanes every year too. More evidence of global warming. On the other hand, 2018 saw the fewest (total) deaths from tornadoes in the US since 1875. https://weather.com/storms/tornado/n...est-since-1875 Italy seems to have had an unusual number, however. Must be global warming. Inherently rare events like hurricanes and, I suppose, tornado deaths will always show a lot of random fluctuations. (The same is true of bicycling fatalities.) I don't think those fluctuations can necessarily be used to prove any particular cause. But long term changes in common and ordinary data are more likely to mean something is happening. Long before most of the discussion on climate change, I came across an article discussing data a historian noted in diaries of British farmers. Farmers were diligent about recording the dates of the last frost, and those dates had been consistently creeping earlier for many decades. To me, that indicates a real trend with a real cause. -- - Frank Krygowski |
#26
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Build it and ... why aren't they coming?
Frank Krygowski writes:
On 1/3/2019 6:52 PM, Radey Shouman wrote: " writes: On Thursday, January 3, 2019 at 2:21:29 PM UTC-6, Frank Krygowski wrote: On 1/3/2019 2:09 PM, wrote: On Thursday, January 3, 2019 at 9:10:57 AM UTC-6, jbeattie wrote: I couldn't imagine living in the Mid West or some place where there was snow on the ground for long periods of time and below zero F on a regular basis. I'd move to Phoenix. -- Jay Beattie. Due to Global Warming, the Midwest has not had a real winter in more than a decade. In Des Moines today, right in the middle of the Midwest, its 36 degrees and Zero snow. Going to be in the 40s or 50s highs for the next week. In early January??? It does snow two or three times each winter. An inch or two that sticks around for less than a week. But the roads are cleared in a few hours and easily rideable with studded tires. You only need studs for a few days of the year. Rest of the time rubber works perfectly. If it wasn't dark for 16 hours a day, you would never even know it was winter in the Midwest. It varies. It's been warm in Ohio this winter, but examining weather records, of the top 10 snowiest Januaries, six of them occurred since 2000. Likewise, seven of the 10 snowiest Februaries. Records at that location have been kept since at least 1931 (maybe longer) so that's nine decades. Those results are statistically odd. -- - Frank Krygowski Snow does not mean cold. Its snowed where I live when its 33-34-35 degrees. But 33-34-35 degrees is WARM for January and February. So its very easy to have global warming and lots of snow. I suspect all the extra warmth in the air causes the water in oceans and lakes to heat up and evaporate into the air. And then once the water is in the air, it has to fall out of the air by either rain or snow. And it seems we have two or three hurricanes every year too. More evidence of global warming. On the other hand, 2018 saw the fewest (total) deaths from tornadoes in the US since 1875. https://weather.com/storms/tornado/n...est-since-1875 Italy seems to have had an unusual number, however. Must be global warming. Inherently rare events like hurricanes and, I suppose, tornado deaths will always show a lot of random fluctuations. (The same is true of bicycling fatalities.) I don't think those fluctuations can necessarily be used to prove any particular cause. I was reacting to the hurricanes bit. But long term changes in common and ordinary data are more likely to mean something is happening. It's hard to generalize to the globe from one's personal experience, "global temperature" is really a surprisingly abstract thing. Long before most of the discussion on climate change, I came across an article discussing data a historian noted in diaries of British farmers. Farmers were diligent about recording the dates of the last frost, and those dates had been consistently creeping earlier for many decades. To me, that indicates a real trend with a real cause. Indeed, central England temperatures have been generally rising since at the very latest 1900, as we continue to exit the "Little Ice Age". Before that we had a Medieval Climate Optimum (warm period), a Roman Climate Optimum, A Minoan Climate Optimum, all alternating with cooler periods. The oldest optimum, oddly, seems to have been the warmest. There are faster oscillations superimposed on that. The Atlantic and Pacific Decadal Oscillations, which have a period of roughly 60 years -- the 30s were quite warm, followed by cooling until the 80s or so, followed by warming ... Then there are slower oscillations, producing the interglacials that periodically interrupt the Ice Age we've been having for almost 3 million years. It's oscillations, usually irregular, all the way down into really deep time. So yes, there are real trends, there have *always* been real trends, and to a great extent we still do not understand the real causes well enough to predict, let alone alter, their course. I don't doubt that atmospheric CO2, some of which is anthropogenic, plays some role in the climate. I do doubt that anyone alive can predict the effect of everyone going out and buying a Tesla or riding a bicycle instead of piloting a massive SUV might have on global temperature to any useful standard at all. Much less whether it might be good or bad for humanity. -- |
#27
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Build it and ... why aren't they coming?
On 1/3/2019 5:11 PM, wrote:
On Thursday, January 3, 2019 at 2:21:29 PM UTC-6, Frank Krygowski wrote: On 1/3/2019 2:09 PM, wrote: On Thursday, January 3, 2019 at 9:10:57 AM UTC-6, jbeattie wrote: I couldn't imagine living in the Mid West or some place where there was snow on the ground for long periods of time and below zero F on a regular basis. I'd move to Phoenix. -- Jay Beattie. Due to Global Warming, the Midwest has not had a real winter in more than a decade. In Des Moines today, right in the middle of the Midwest, its 36 degrees and Zero snow. Going to be in the 40s or 50s highs for the next week. In early January??? It does snow two or three times each winter. An inch or two that sticks around for less than a week. But the roads are cleared in a few hours and easily rideable with studded tires. You only need studs for a few days of the year. Rest of the time rubber works perfectly. If it wasn't dark for 16 hours a day, you would never even know it was winter in the Midwest. It varies. It's been warm in Ohio this winter, but examining weather records, of the top 10 snowiest Januaries, six of them occurred since 2000. Likewise, seven of the 10 snowiest Februaries. Records at that location have been kept since at least 1931 (maybe longer) so that's nine decades. Those results are statistically odd. -- - Frank Krygowski Snow does not mean cold. Its snowed where I live when its 33-34-35 degrees. But 33-34-35 degrees is WARM for January and February. So its very easy to have global warming and lots of snow. I suspect all the extra warmth in the air causes the water in oceans and lakes to heat up and evaporate into the air. And then once the water is in the air, it has to fall out of the air by either rain or snow. And it seems we have two or three hurricanes every year too. More evidence of global warming. I don't know but I don't think you do either: https://www.wunderground.com/hurrica....asp?region=at At least storms like the one which wiped Galveston clean in 1900 are not everyday events. -- Andrew Muzi www.yellowjersey.org/ Open every day since 1 April, 1971 |
#28
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Build it and ... why aren't they coming?
On 1/3/2019 6:37 PM, Frank Krygowski wrote:
On 1/3/2019 6:52 PM, Radey Shouman wrote: " writes: On Thursday, January 3, 2019 at 2:21:29 PM UTC-6, Frank Krygowski wrote: On 1/3/2019 2:09 PM, wrote: On Thursday, January 3, 2019 at 9:10:57 AM UTC-6, jbeattie wrote: I couldn't imagine living in the Mid West or some place where there was snow on the ground for long periods of time and below zero F on a regular basis. I'd move to Phoenix. -- Jay Beattie. Due to Global Warming, the Midwest has not had a real winter in more than a decade. In Des Moines today, right in the middle of the Midwest, its 36 degrees and Zero snow. Going to be in the 40s or 50s highs for the next week. In early January??? It does snow two or three times each winter. An inch or two that sticks around for less than a week. But the roads are cleared in a few hours and easily rideable with studded tires. You only need studs for a few days of the year. Rest of the time rubber works perfectly. If it wasn't dark for 16 hours a day, you would never even know it was winter in the Midwest. It varies. It's been warm in Ohio this winter, but examining weather records, of the top 10 snowiest Januaries, six of them occurred since 2000. Likewise, seven of the 10 snowiest Februaries. Records at that location have been kept since at least 1931 (maybe longer) so that's nine decades. Those results are statistically odd. -- - Frank Krygowski Snow does not mean cold. Its snowed where I live when its 33-34-35 degrees. But 33-34-35 degrees is WARM for January and February. So its very easy to have global warming and lots of snow. I suspect all the extra warmth in the air causes the water in oceans and lakes to heat up and evaporate into the air. And then once the water is in the air, it has to fall out of the air by either rain or snow. And it seems we have two or three hurricanes every year too. More evidence of global warming. On the other hand, 2018 saw the fewest (total) deaths from tornadoes in the US since 1875. https://weather.com/storms/tornado/n...est-since-1875 Italy seems to have had an unusual number, however. Must be global warming. Inherently rare events like hurricanes and, I suppose, tornado deaths will always show a lot of random fluctuations. (The same is true of bicycling fatalities.) I don't think those fluctuations can necessarily be used to prove any particular cause. But long term changes in common and ordinary data are more likely to mean something is happening. Long before most of the discussion on climate change, I came across an article discussing data a historian noted in diaries of British farmers. Farmers were diligent about recording the dates of the last frost, and those dates had been consistently creeping earlier for many decades. To me, that indicates a real trend with a real cause. Which completely explains the plowed fields with stone borders under the retreating Greenland glaciers. The real question is, will England once again be a major wine exporter as it was for Hadrian's garrisons? Where I am now was once a mile deep with ice yet 40 miles from here there are 100-ft deposits of limestone with shells from a warm tropic sea. Which future might I expect next? Which clothes will I need this year? -- Andrew Muzi www.yellowjersey.org/ Open every day since 1 April, 1971 |
#29
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Build it and ... why aren't they coming?
On 1/3/2019 7:08 PM, Radey Shouman wrote:
Frank Krygowski writes: On 1/3/2019 6:52 PM, Radey Shouman wrote: " writes: On Thursday, January 3, 2019 at 2:21:29 PM UTC-6, Frank Krygowski wrote: On 1/3/2019 2:09 PM, wrote: On Thursday, January 3, 2019 at 9:10:57 AM UTC-6, jbeattie wrote: I couldn't imagine living in the Mid West or some place where there was snow on the ground for long periods of time and below zero F on a regular basis. I'd move to Phoenix. -- Jay Beattie. Due to Global Warming, the Midwest has not had a real winter in more than a decade. In Des Moines today, right in the middle of the Midwest, its 36 degrees and Zero snow. Going to be in the 40s or 50s highs for the next week. In early January??? It does snow two or three times each winter. An inch or two that sticks around for less than a week. But the roads are cleared in a few hours and easily rideable with studded tires. You only need studs for a few days of the year. Rest of the time rubber works perfectly. If it wasn't dark for 16 hours a day, you would never even know it was winter in the Midwest. It varies. It's been warm in Ohio this winter, but examining weather records, of the top 10 snowiest Januaries, six of them occurred since 2000. Likewise, seven of the 10 snowiest Februaries. Records at that location have been kept since at least 1931 (maybe longer) so that's nine decades. Those results are statistically odd. -- - Frank Krygowski Snow does not mean cold. Its snowed where I live when its 33-34-35 degrees. But 33-34-35 degrees is WARM for January and February. So its very easy to have global warming and lots of snow. I suspect all the extra warmth in the air causes the water in oceans and lakes to heat up and evaporate into the air. And then once the water is in the air, it has to fall out of the air by either rain or snow. And it seems we have two or three hurricanes every year too. More evidence of global warming. On the other hand, 2018 saw the fewest (total) deaths from tornadoes in the US since 1875. https://weather.com/storms/tornado/n...est-since-1875 Italy seems to have had an unusual number, however. Must be global warming. Inherently rare events like hurricanes and, I suppose, tornado deaths will always show a lot of random fluctuations. (The same is true of bicycling fatalities.) I don't think those fluctuations can necessarily be used to prove any particular cause. I was reacting to the hurricanes bit. But long term changes in common and ordinary data are more likely to mean something is happening. It's hard to generalize to the globe from one's personal experience, "global temperature" is really a surprisingly abstract thing. Long before most of the discussion on climate change, I came across an article discussing data a historian noted in diaries of British farmers. Farmers were diligent about recording the dates of the last frost, and those dates had been consistently creeping earlier for many decades. To me, that indicates a real trend with a real cause. Indeed, central England temperatures have been generally rising since at the very latest 1900, as we continue to exit the "Little Ice Age". Before that we had a Medieval Climate Optimum (warm period), a Roman Climate Optimum, A Minoan Climate Optimum, all alternating with cooler periods. The oldest optimum, oddly, seems to have been the warmest. There are faster oscillations superimposed on that. The Atlantic and Pacific Decadal Oscillations, which have a period of roughly 60 years -- the 30s were quite warm, followed by cooling until the 80s or so, followed by warming ... Then there are slower oscillations, producing the interglacials that periodically interrupt the Ice Age we've been having for almost 3 million years. It's oscillations, usually irregular, all the way down into really deep time. So yes, there are real trends, there have *always* been real trends, and to a great extent we still do not understand the real causes well enough to predict, let alone alter, their course. I don't doubt that atmospheric CO2, some of which is anthropogenic, plays some role in the climate. I do doubt that anyone alive can predict the effect of everyone going out and buying a Tesla or riding a bicycle instead of piloting a massive SUV might have on global temperature to any useful standard at all. Much less whether it might be good or bad for humanity. So it's freeze or burn, just like life itself? https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nhsr/nhsr076.pdf -- Andrew Muzi www.yellowjersey.org/ Open every day since 1 April, 1971 |
#30
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Build it and ... why aren't they coming?
On 3/1/19 10:24 pm, Roger Merriman wrote:
Frank Krygowski wrote: https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...ms/2319972002/ - Frank Krygowski How well connected are they? My commute to work has some fairly old and narrow cycle paths built alongside the by pass, most of the time I don’t see another cyclist as for most part. It makes sense for me but very few others. Yet closer to home routes that are much better connected are unsurprisingly much busier. This is one of the variables and there are so many of them. Interestingly, weather doesn't seem to dissuade people in Denmark. They wear appropriate clothing and I think the distances they travel by bicycle is not typically very far. They have slowly choked out the amenity of driving and replaced it with cycling. I don't think it is possible to make driving and cycling simultaneously amenable, and have people choose to cycle in great numbers. I suspect that most USian cities still cater heavily for driving, while some have a bit of cycling specific infrastructure tacked on. That situation will hardly make a measurable difference. -- JS |
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