#141
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Fun with exponents
On Wed, 27 May 2020 13:58:42 -0700, Jeff Liebermann
wrote: On Tue, 26 May 2020 18:56:22 -0700, Jeff Liebermann wrote: Bicycle related drivel: Water bottle fail. I grabbed it, and the now brittle plastic crumbled. My guess(tm) is it was 30 years old. Argh. http://www.11junk.com/jeffl/pics/bicycles/slides/water%20bottle%20fail.html Blank page. So much for bibycle related content. I updated my photo album software from Jalbum 20.0 to the latest 20.1. I also added the above photo. The new and improved release did some odd things and took far too long to coplete the upload. The next morning, I discovered that all the photos on my web pile were gone. I have backups, but until I put the mess back together, no photos. Sorry. The bicycle web page is back along with about 10% of the photos on my web pile. The titles and the font sizes are still a mess. I need to RTFM, but phone keeps ringing. About 3,500 photos or 250 MBytes. The time burn is that I need to remove about 10,000 JAlbum specific files and directories, leaving only the photos and titles. Then, I rebuild the photo album and upload it in small increments through a slow 0.32 Mbits/sec DSL line. At my present rate, the rest of the site will be fully recovered about the same time as the US economy recovers. http://802.11junk.com/jeffl/pics/bicycles/index.html Mandatory bicycle related content: I've been volunteered to repair a Life Fitness 95xi elliptical torture machine tomorrow. It has pedals, cranks, handle bars, a frame, and a saddle of sorts, so it has most of the requirements to be classified as a bicycle. https://www.google.com/search?q=life+fitness+95xi&tbm=isch -- Jeff Liebermann 150 Felker St #D http://www.LearnByDestroying.com Santa Cruz CA 95060 http://802.11junk.com Skype: JeffLiebermann AE6KS 831-336-2558 |
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#143
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Fun with exponents
AMuzi writes:
On 5/28/2020 6:46 PM, jbeattie wrote: On Thursday, May 28, 2020 at 4:02:12 PM UTC-7, John B. wrote: On Thu, 28 May 2020 14:37:04 -0500, AMuzi wrote: On 5/28/2020 11:37 AM, Frank Krygowski wrote: On 5/28/2020 10:21 AM, AMuzi wrote: On 5/27/2020 9:38 PM, Frank Krygowski wrote: On 5/27/2020 4:36 PM, AMuzi wrote: On 5/27/2020 2:36 PM, Frank Krygowski wrote: On 5/27/2020 1:43 PM, wrote: Only someone in a financially secure position could ignore the pain and suffering of people whose source of income has been cut off... Only a person who has no friend or family infected or seriously at risk could ignore the pain and suffering of those with COVID. ... for no reasons whatsoever. That's the view of a person with zero qualifications, despite strong disagreement from qualified experts in every country worldwide. It is not heartless to observe that there is no correlation between punishment and mortality rates. There are definitely fatal policy errors (and Mr Cuomo made more than a few of them. He's not alone.) but destroying lives, income, businesses, wealth, opportunity and hope has not meant less death, just more suffering among the living. Again, "punishment" is a deliberately loaded word. Things like social distancing orders and travel restrictions were intended to protect, not punish. And again, those measures have worked extremely well in many places. Look how excellently Hawaii has done! Less than 20 deaths last I looked. Isn't it obvious that can only be due to the 'stay-at-home' orders? ;-) That is not at all obvious. New York?? Chicago?? IOW, you mean that despite attempts at protective regulations, New York and Chicago had lots of cases. And I mean that because of protective regulations, Hawaii, Nevada, New Mexico, Maine, Kansas etc. did really well. They did exceptionally well in their rural areas. So perhaps we should look at less extreme outliers? Is there a chance that the regulations did have significant benefit, but that in super-dense cities other factors contributed to super-spreading? Perhaps one factor was ignoring the regulations? And is there a chance that without those regulations, the super-spreading would have been far, far worse? That's what epidemiologists around the world seem to think. In my county there has been widespread disregard for the "Because I Said So" rules with almost no fatal events[1]. You could posit that we all enjoy super immune systems but there's so far no correlation between punishment of the citizenry and positive outcomes. Again, Japan advised her citizens and then stopped short of destroying the society, with good results. New York, especially NYC, tried to micromanage life to the smallest detail with abysmal outcome. You keep saying that but just it isn't really true. There is even a wiki page listing the Japanese response on a practically day by day basis. But no, they didn't impose draconian regulations on their people they simply told them what to do and the Japanese being Japanese did what they were told to do. As opposed to the U.S. approach that "I'm going to do just as I damned please no matter what you tell me to do". There really are "different strokes for different folks". [1]One death on 29 March in an elder care facility, none since. "I woke up in a free country!" [as told to fascist Costco employee]. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u1xCJa-qltY Say goodbye to the cheap paper towels. Its the price of liberty! BTW, you didn't wake up in a free Costco. Try getting in without your membership card. -- Jay Beattie. At the diner where I take my morning coffee there's the occasional person with a mask but those are rare. I otherwise haven't seen them except driving, where some people drive on the Interstate with a mask, alone in their own car. Weird. I don't think there is a public accomodation near me that does not now require a mask to enter. Even in live free or die New Hampshire, at least close to the Massachusetts border. At the office we're required to wear one unless actually at our desks (most are working from home). |
#144
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Fun with exponents
On 5/28/2020 8:09 PM, AMuzi wrote:
At the diner where I take my morning coffee there's the occasional person with a mask but those are rare. I otherwise haven't seen them except driving... Really? I stopped in the pharmacy today and the grocery yesterday. I'd guess 90% of the people were wearing masks. There's this: https://www.yahoo.com/news/wisconsin...160959549.html -- - Frank Krygowski |
#145
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Fun with exponents
On 5/28/2020 8:32 PM, John B. wrote:
On Thu, 28 May 2020 15:40:36 -0500, AMuzi wrote: On 5/28/2020 3:00 PM, Radey Shouman wrote: AMuzi writes: On 5/27/2020 7:21 PM, John B. wrote: On Wed, 27 May 2020 11:42:30 -0500, AMuzi wrote: On 5/27/2020 11:29 AM, Frank Krygowski wrote: On 5/27/2020 11:42 AM, wrote: On Tuesday, May 26, 2020 at 7:17:19 PM UTC-7, Jeff Liebermann wrote: On Tue, 26 May 2020 15:18:53 -0700 (PDT), wrote: On Tuesday, May 26, 2020 at 10:46:36 AM UTC-7, Jeff Liebermann wrote: On Tue, 26 May 2020 08:30:38 -0700 (PDT), wrote: I have a very low respect for doctors because so few of them want to be competent. Top of the list in that category is Dr. Fauci of the CDC who has continually acted an expert at things he knows very little about. Dr Fauci has been director of the NIAID (National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases) since 1984. He does NOT work for the CDC. NIAID is part of the NIH (National Institute of Health). He's has been involved with controlling several previous epidemics, which I presume qualifies as experience: https://www.niaid.nih.gov/about/anthony-s-fauci-md-bio https://www.niaid.nih.gov/about/director https://www.niaid.nih.gov/about/niaid-history Can you provide the name of someone in the US who is better qualified to discuss pandemics than Dr Fauci? There is a place for those who sit around, think and read papers. I do not deny Fauci that much. But he is not working in the real world as many other epidemiologists are and they often interview them on FOX and they ALL say what I've been saying. There isn't much you can do about a pandemic with a linear growth rate. I see. You want to be advised on how to protect yourself from a viral epidemic by an epidemiologist via Fox News. I don't think that's what you intended to say, but that's what you wrote. You also seem to have changed your position on Dr Fauci from: "Dr. Fauci of the CDC(sic) who has continually acted an expert at things he knows very little about." to: "I do not deny Fauci that much." That's quite a change from calling the leading expert on infectious diseases in the US an incompetent, to not denying him something you didn't bother to specify. Of course, you're entitled to have an opinion about anyone and anything, but I'm also entitled to discount your opinion as rubbish. Anyway, kindly stabilize your opinion about Dr Fauci. If it's critical, please provide the name of someone in the US that is equally or more qualified to advise on how to handle a pandemic. Incidentally, I could probably provide some names in China that are substantially more qualified and equally experienced, but such experts would not be considered as candidates for advising our president, who knows more than any or all of them, Here's one candidate that might have qualified had he not resigned for having is bureau eliminated by the Trump administration: "A top pandemic expert is leaving the Trump administration amid the coronavirus crisis" https://www.businessinsider.com/top-pandemic-expert-leaving-the-trump-administration-amid-coronavirus-2020-5 No bicycle related content this time. Sorry(tm). -- Jeff Liebermann 150 Felker St #D http://www.LearnByDestroying.com Santa Cruz CA 95060 http://802.11junk.com Skype: JeffLiebermann AE6KS 831-336-2558 The leading expert? Jeff, that is about the most foolish thing that you could say. Fauci is NOT an expert. Sitting around in hallowed halls of government does NOT make you an expert. The epidemiologists in the field say the opposite and that you like some sort of moron deny that they know anything for the simple reason that they are interviewed on FOX shows that you are nothing more than some stupid biased punk. Your homework, Tom: !) Find or assemble a CV for Dr. Anthony Fauci. I say that because you obviously know very, very little about him. 2) Find or assemble a CV for the guy you allude to whom Faux News managed to dig up. Analyze and compare those to prove to us that your guy with his predictable complaints is more qualified than Fauci. We'll even give bonus points for a little more work: 3) Give us your own CV. Show us why we should listen to your opinions on epidemiology... and history, genetics, theology, ballistics, human anatomy, politics, engineering, medicine, sociology, geology, meteorology, technology, etc. You know - all the other things about which you, as a high school dropout, claim to be much smarter than hundreds of trained, experienced, and recognized experts. Fauci is probably a successful agency administrator and political survivor who knows something but surely not everything. Dr John Ionnidis who's no slouch in the area has different opinions but gets no media traction: https://www.washingtontimes.com/news...ge-establishm/ And yet, countries that did institute a lock down, in a timely manner, have noticeably lower cases and deaths. (please note the phrase "timely manner") Italy did and lost many. Japan did not and lost few. Sweden is not out of line to her neighbors and yet still has some GDP remaining. There's no correlation. You can imply one as you will but it's not clear at all that such relationship exists. You might like this article from the Financial Times: https://www.ft.com/content/6b4c784e-...2-648ffde71bf0 They show excess mortality statistics for countries where they are available, and plot versus infections per million on "lockdown day". In the absence of a legal lockdown, they use the day when transit usage fell to 50% of pre-pandemic levels. It's not clear to me how comparable the "infections per million" figures are, given the wide variation of testing capabilities over space and time. They claim to find a correlation between early lockdown and lower excess deaths, but their points are very widely scattered. Spain comes off worst in excess mortality, followed by the UK, and then Italy. Food for thought: https://www.ft.com/content/6b4c784e-...2-648ffde71bf0 Regarding testing, I read a report yesterday interviewing RNs who have tested both positive and negative on different days, back and forth, for weeks. I don't know but I'm reasonably certain that any conclusion based on large population testing is inaccurate. BTW I'm not disagreeing with you generally, just stopping short of accepting ratios dependent on current testing. I have read several news articles stating that some of the testing does not give accurate results. https://www.healthline.com/health-ne...u-have-illness https://abc7.com/covid-19-coronaviru...-core/6112137/ https://www.11alive.com/article/news...4-2297526c0cc0 Yes, as at least one of the articles stated, all lab tests give some false positives and some false negatives. And interpreting those results can be mathematically surprising, as the computation known as Bayes Theorem shows. The less common the disease, the weirder the math. This article has an example: https://math.hmc.edu/funfacts/medica...bayes-theorem/ -- - Frank Krygowski |
#146
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Fun with exponents
Am 28.05.2020 um 21:44 schrieb Sepp Ruf:
that using it prophylactically is a bad idea, especially in the combination with antibiotics: the death rate goes up significantly compared to no treatment.Â* This is the main reason why "experimental" treatments should be carefully validated before the treament turns into a treatment for the millions. I hope you hold the same standard to Bill the Barbarian's vaccination for the billions. Yes, this is why the (25+ different) vaccinations are not on the market today. We are awaiting the results of phase-1 studies, then phase-2 studies and phase-3 studies rather than accidentially killing a billion healthy people instead of fighting COVID. |
#147
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Fun with exponents
with John B wrote:
On Thu, 28 May 2020 16:44:29 -0400, Frank Krygowski wrote: On 5/28/2020 3:37 PM, AMuzi wrote: On 5/28/2020 11:37 AM, Frank Krygowski wrote: On 5/28/2020 10:21 AM, AMuzi wrote: On 5/27/2020 9:38 PM, Frank Krygowski wrote: On 5/27/2020 4:36 PM, AMuzi wrote: On 5/27/2020 2:36 PM, Frank Krygowski wrote: On 5/27/2020 1:43 PM, wrote: *SKIP* It's interesting to me that I hear only about an American fringe contingent skeptics; and that they tend to spout rationales plucked from American right-wing media. Maybe our posters from other countries can comment on any "resistance" groups in their countries? Well, grouping (maybe "clustering" is better term) is what I observe for couple of years now. It's more organized though (if I may) -- one leader, maybe couple sub-leaders (I'm quite ignorant though, sorry -- not involved), and group of peons (or simpletons, if I may). Together they form an echo chamber and happily re-enforce themseves. Occasionaly peons attempt recruitment -- get either 'yeah-totally' (in fact 'yeah-whatever', but peons ignore that subtle difference) and with time (and no effort) gather new-comers; or 'STFU-thats-not-how-it-works' (that would be me, but I'm doing my bloody-cyclist thing here) and learn not to try again. Leaders and sub-leaders are more time consuming -- they are obliged to work and have no option to stop. 80% lockdown (relaxing is in progress), what was and wasn't lockdowned is complicated (not going TL;DR here) -- all education, daycare, whatever gatherings, 95% of local public transport, all inter-city transport; restrictions on various forms of consumer goods' dispenseries were complicated. Easter was both hilarious and showing, to say the least. Construction is OK but without public transport it's strange. Central government utterly incompetent (and full of peons). Local government -- more responsible (because people are here) and utterly incapable (because full of peons, corruption, and central government). It's complicated. In essence, people just made it throught all by themselves. And now The Lockdown is going, The Grand Opening is coming, central government is... blah-blah-blah. It's fascinating. *SKIP* As an aside, color coordinated face masks are now quite the rage among the fairer sex :-) I bought my wife several but she complained that they didn't match her dresses :-( -- cheers, Just now did people-watching -- totaly a thing here too. -- Torvalds' goal for Linux is very simple: World Domination Stallman's goal for GNU is even simpler: Freedom |
#148
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Fun with exponents
On Wednesday, May 27, 2020 at 4:17:13 PM UTC-7, jbeattie wrote:
On Wednesday, May 27, 2020 at 2:32:39 PM UTC-7, wrote: On Wednesday, May 27, 2020 at 12:36:46 PM UTC-7, Frank Krygowski wrote: On 5/27/2020 1:43 PM, wrote: Only someone in a financially secure position could ignore the pain and suffering of people whose source of income has been cut off... Only a person who has no friend or family infected or seriously at risk could ignore the pain and suffering of those with COVID. ... for no reasons whatsoever. That's the view of a person with zero qualifications, despite strong disagreement from qualified experts in every country worldwide. On a clear day you couldn't see beyond you nose. Before ANY of the shouting is done, the CDC has already reduced the numbers of covid-19 deaths by 25%. This isn't going to stop here since other CDC studies show that the chances of someone that has covid-19 AND SYNPTOMS (only 25% of those with the disease) have a 0.05% chance of dying. It is a pity that you mind doesn't work anymore. All you have left is bitter hatred for those that point it out. It's a pity that you don't understand disease prevention versus post hoc death statistics. Restrictions were imposed to prevent the spread of a disease with bad track record. Remember Wuhan, burial pits in Iran, Italy? The only way you could say that the restrictions were unnecessary is: (1) define an acceptable number of sick and/or dead, and (2) know in advance the number of sick and/or dead if no restrictions were imposed, and then compare the two numbers. If we know that 250,000 will die if no restrictions are imposed, and we're O.K. with that number, then the restrictions are/were unnecessary. If we think 250,000 is too many (or whatever the best projection showed), then we impose restrictions, and try to tailor them to do the most good and least harm. You can't impose restrictions and then claim that they were unnecessary because they worked. -- Jay Beattie. The real pity is that you are in total agreement that the government in the hands of the CDC's visual arm at the covid-19 briefings should pass out patently false information. I have shown you that there are no more deaths than last year at this time and you pretend that there is this killer virus on the loose that requires the destruction of the American economy to protect ourselves from. I have explained that masks and social distancing are useless inside of a building such as a grocery store which most normal people need attend and that outside it is unnecessary but you cannot understand that since you are like a trained seal and bow to authority despite their changing their stories 180 degrees over and over. That you are a fool of needs doesn't make everyone else one. |
#149
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Fun with exponents
On Wednesday, May 27, 2020 at 5:53:40 PM UTC-7, AMuzi wrote:
(concerning lockdown) Italy did and lost many. Japan did not and lost few. Sweden is not out of line to her neighbors and yet still has some GDP remaining. There's no correlation. You can imply one as you will but it's not clear at all that such relationship exists. All it would take is for a similar virus to have gone though the population earlier and a larger portion of a population would be protected. But this virus already has been shown to not have any real effect. If you have a heart problem and are expected to live less than 6 months, you contract the covid-19 or the seasonal flu and die a bit sooner, what is the cause of death? As I have shown with the CDC death certificate counts, there are no more deaths this year that are statistically relevant than last year. If there is this deadly virus raging across the world why have we not shown increased mortality rate? |
#150
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Fun with exponents
On Wednesday, May 27, 2020 at 6:28:55 PM UTC-7, Jeff Liebermann wrote:
On Wed, 27 May 2020 17:52:39 -0500, AMuzi wrote: On 5/27/2020 3:58 PM, Jeff Liebermann wrote: On Tue, 26 May 2020 18:56:22 -0700, Jeff Liebermann wrote: Bicycle related drivel: Water bottle fail. I grabbed it, and the now brittle plastic crumbled. My guess(tm) is it was 30 years old. Argh. http://www.11junk.com/jeffl/pics/bicycles/slides/water%20bottle%20fail.html Blank page. So much for bibycle related content. I updated my photo album software from Jalbum 20.0 to the latest 20.1. I also added the above photo. The new and improved release did some odd things and took far too long to coplete the upload. The next morning, I discovered that all the photos on my web pile were gone. I have backups, but until I put the mess back together, no photos. Sorry. I saw it yesterday. I also saw it yesterday. It was coming out of some manner of web cache and not directly from the 1and1.com server. Hard to tell what's happening as Shodan shows a weird server name: 74-208-236-55.elastic-ssl.ui-r.com https://www.ip-tracker.org/locator/ip-lookup.php?ip=74-208-236-133.elastic-ssl.ui-r.com Anyway, when the cache flushed overnight, all my photos went with it. I'm resisting the temptation to completely change the structure of the web site, but suspect it will be necessary anyway. Typical outgassed polymer failure. Thanks. The bottom of the bottle says it's LDPE (low-density polyethylene) and was made in 1992 (28 years old). I've seen plastic crumble, but not quite the way this bottle decided to crumble. Google couldn't find anything useful under "outgassed polymer failure". Could you point me to a web page where I can read about it? I've never seen anything crumble this badly and I'm curious as to the failure mechanism. (If you're busy, don't bother). -- Jeff Liebermann 150 Felker St #D http://www.LearnByDestroying.com Santa Cruz CA 95060 http://802.11junk.com Skype: JeffLiebermann AE6KS 831-336-2558 Jeff, surely you're not worried about a $2 item that was long past its useful life since these things are degraded by UV light and you ride a lot in the sunshine? |
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